In the evening session, Shanghai tin fell sharply, with the main contract falling more than 7% at one point. Today, the price center continued to shift downwards, and the main contract hit the limit down in the late session, with a drop of 12%, at 394890 yuan/ton.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
The changes in the local geopolitical situation in Myanmar have not yet had a substantial impact on the production and transportation of tin mines. At the same time, substantial progress has been made in addressing the long-standing challenges that have hindered the development of Myanmar’s mining areas, and the Wa State region may be expected to achieve full resumption of production. In addition, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, and market panic is spreading, causing Shanghai tin prices to hit the limit down.
supply side
The resumption of tin mining in the Wa State of Myanmar is accelerating. On February 27, 2026, the Wa State Industrial and Mineral Management Bureau issued a notice on the cost allocation process related to deep mines, which detailed the cost sharing process, aiming to further promote the resumption of production in high-grade tin mining areas at low altitudes. With the re establishment of stable expectations for tin ore supply in Myanmar, the emotional factors that previously supported the market have weakened.
demand side
There is a clear trend of structural differentiation, with strong expectations for demand growth in emerging fields such as AI computing infrastructure and advanced packaging. However, traditional demand areas have shown a sluggish performance, and overall demand presents a significant feature of strong expectations and weak reality coexisting. In February, downstream consumption significantly contracted, and even after excluding the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the actual demand level was only barely satisfactory. At present, tin prices are still relatively high in history, and the high cost pressure greatly inhibits the enthusiasm of end users to replenish inventory.
In terms of the spot market, the supply side situation is turbulent, and at the same time, macro risks have reappeared, resulting in significant price fluctuations and adjustments. Traders’ willingness to ship has increased, and the quantity of goods shipped has also increased; Although the terminal market has not fully resumed production, the low price advantage has attracted some users to make purchases. At present, the activity of the spot market has significantly increased compared to before, and according to market feedback, the trading situation has improved.
comprehensive analysis
The situation in Iran continues to escalate and ferment, and in this market situation, risk assets are easily killed by market sentiment. Currently, funds are mainly focused on chemical products, and Myanmar has accelerated the pace of resuming production. However, in the short term, due to factors such as tight raw material supply and expectations of production, there is still some support below, and it is expected that the market will maintain a high volatility trend. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (3.1-3.3), with an average market price of 435060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 411120 yuan/ton as of March 3, a decrease of 5.48%.
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