Overview of ethylene glycol market
According to data from Business News Agency, on April 27th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4153.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12% compared to the market average price of 4158.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Ethylene glycol inventory remains high
At present, inventory is still relatively high. In April, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port has been operating above 1 million tons. From the beginning of the month to the 24th, there has been a slight accumulation of inventory. Towards the end of the month (April 27th), the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port has reached 1.0221 million tons, and the inventory has started to decrease slightly. The main reason is that the pace of port shipments has increased, including 534000 tons in Zhangjiagang, 189100 tons in Taicang, 101000 tons in Ningbo, 121000 tons in Jiangyin and Changzhou, and 77000 tons in Shanghai and Changshu. In terms of shipment: Zhangjiagang shipped an average of 6100 tons per day this week; Taicang’s two warehouses have a comprehensive daily average shipment of 6900 tons; The daily average shipment in Ningbo area is around 3000 tons.
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List of International CIF Prices
On April 25th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 505 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars per ton compared to the previous month; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 523 US dollars per ton.
The supply is still loose, and the expected conversion to production needs to be actually implemented
The operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol units has slightly increased to 60% with the production of new units and the restart of coal chemical plants. In terms of imports, the import volume in March will slightly increase to around 520000 tons with the arrival of Iranian goods at the port. In addition, the port’s shipping speed is starting to decline, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory slightly.
Downstream demand is weak
Downstream, the scale of polyester maintenance has increased, and the polyester load continues to decline, mainly because the terminal is temporarily unable to withstand high priced raw materials, and the operating rate of the weaving machine has decreased. Although there have been many new polyester production units recently, which to some extent offset some of the reduced production load, the overall downstream demand is weak.
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Weak upward momentum on the spot end
At present, the average spot price of ethylene glycol is within a relatively low range in history, but the supply pressure of ethylene glycol is still in the short term. In terms of demand, the start of terminal looms has slightly weakened, and some polyester factories have production reduction plans, suppressing the upward trend of ethylene glycol prices; The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are still weak.
Ethylene glycol has been in a negative profit price range for a long time. Currently, it mainly relies on the increase in equipment maintenance scale and the reduction in supply, coupled with the weakening of supply caused by medium to long-term production changes and the expected support of downstream demand that may improve; We still need to wait and see the specific performance, after all, the inventory data is not optimistic.
It is expected that in the short term, the probability of ethylene glycol trading sideways will increase, with an average price range of around 3950-4200 yuan/ton.
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