Non-ferrous metal collective cooling, rising power can continue into focus. Since the midday metal rally kinetic energy gradually dissipated, the day the overall volatility is limited, closing only copper fell slightly, the rest of the metals are closed up.

Development and Reform Commission shut down the country’s largest enterprise electrolytic aluminum illegal production capacity, on behalf of China to resolve electrolytic aluminum and other industries excess capacity attitude is very firm, the market was encouraged. The current round of metal collective rise, on the one hand is the supply side of the reform from the limited production to environmental orderly advance, the number of enterprises cut off the market exceeded the market expectations; the other hand, in the supply from the surplus to clear the background, steel, , Electrolytic aluminum and other industry profits rose sharply, the market outlook will continue to be optimistic.

However, from the various varieties of view, the strongest fundamentals of zinc, zinc production this year, China is not as expected, so that the supply shortage situation is more serious. While the high inventory of aluminum, suggesting that the state is still in excess, but the hype space. Copper is the most stable metal at this stage, the fundamentals tend to balance the state is the main reason for its price fluctuations, but should pay attention to the recent hype of copper.

According to the United States, fuel and petrochemical manufacturers statistics show that the United States in June propylene exports increased by 19%, from 5.1348 million tons in May increased to 609.77 million tons. According to the US International Trade Commission recently released the latest statistics, the United States in June propylene exports to record highs.

Statistics show that the United States in June propylene exports in June last year, 3.9488 million tons of exports soared by 54%.

Statistics also show that the United States in June propylene exports of the three largest destinations are Mexico, Canada and Belgium and Luxembourg, the three were imported 3.2834 million tons, 2.0826 million tons and 7038 tons.

Statistics show that Canada in June is the largest supplier of propylene in the United States, exports reached 13.48 million tons.

What is the importance of changes in market demand for oil prices? It is worth noting that a new change in the global oil market is happening quietly – electric cars are gradually replacing traditional cars. What impact does this have on oil prices?

At the end of the 19th century American oil production, gasoline was considered a useless by-product of oil refining, when gasoline prices were very cheap, or even burned or dumped in rivers. When the first batch of large-scale production of traditional cars appeared, the demand for gasoline was greatly improved, gasoline prices also led to rising crude oil prices.

From the above historical facts, we can find that the change in market demand is important for oil prices. It is worth noting that, just over a century later, a new change in the global oil market is taking place – electric cars are gradually replacing traditional cars.

First, the emergence of electric locomotives become a major challenge in the oil industry

Britain and France recently announced a plan. The plan is to ban the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2040. The plan has been the key issue for the oil industry: the emergence of a large number of electric vehicles is leading to a decline in oil demand?

1, oil producers began to pay attention to the impact of electric vehicles on oil prices

Some of the world’s oil company executives in the status quo, but also did not realize the importance of the problem. These executives take for granted that the current oil company’s overall performance in the second quarter is generally strong, even in the long run, the global oil demand slowed, but the recent outlook is still optimistic.

However, Ben van Beurden, chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, did not try to cover up the challenges facing the oil industry. “Our company must reduce the development of oil fields, and only the lowest cost and most likely to remain competitive will be mined.”

Ben van Beurden said, “We must objectively face the resilience of the oil market, the current strong demand in the oil market, but there will be demand when the downturn, when the specific demand will decline, we do not know, but sooner or later will happen We are sure. ”

Ben van Beurden said, “oil peak demand may be in the late twenties and thirties, that is, electric cars began to appear in a large number of optimistic circumstances, after the oil demand will gradually reduce.However, now look at the electric car industry also Need more innovation in battery technology, and more policy support, it is possible to compete with the oil car.

2, electric vehicle policy advantage can not be ignored

Britain and France plan to phase out gasoline and diesel vehicles over the next two decades, increasing the policy advantage of electric vehicles. Equally important, car manufacturers have also made their promises for this.

Volvo said last month that all new models will be converted from 2019 to electric or hybrid. At the same time, Tesla (365.22, 10.05, 2.83%) increased the effort of the new electric car launched last month.

Figure 2: growth expectations of electric vehicle sales (dark blue for the growth of China’s electric car is expected, light blue for the global growth of electric vehicles is expected) Figure 2: electric vehicle sales growth expectations (dark blue for China’s electric vehicle growth is expected, light blue for the global electric Car growth is expected)

3, China and India are expected to vigorously develop battery technology

China and India are ambitious in battery technology, and these two countries are likely to promote the development of electric vehicles.

At present, China is already the world’s largest electric car market, Chinese companies have begun to dominate the battery manufacturing industry.

Research firm Trusted Sources analyst Kingsmill Bond predicts that “with the cost of electric vehicles and traditional vehicles parity, there will be a turning point in early 2020. The rise of electric vehicles is another indicator of systemic changes in the energy market, but also the oil investors Early warning. ”

Second, the transformation of market demand still takes a long time

Many oil industry analysts believe that the transformation of market demand takes a long time. ExxonMobil (79.96, -0.20, -0.25%) the company expects the current growth of electric vehicles on the global oil demand is relatively small. The company also believes that despite the slowdown in oil demand growth, but oil demand will continue to grow until the twenty seventies of the twenty-first century.

1, the traditional vehicle replacement in developing countries is relatively slow

It is worth mentioning that the UK and France may be on the new electric vehicle policy advantage and will not determine the fate of the oil industry.

According to the International Energy Agency, non-OECD countries will grow by 19 per cent, although oil demand is expected to decline by nearly 12 per cent in the more affluent OECD countries between 2015 and 2040. By the end of 2040, 60% of the demand will come from outside the OECD.

“The growth of internal combustion engines in developing countries is still strong because they do not have electrical infrastructure and electric cars do not simply replace traditional cars,” explains Ben van Beurden.

Bob Dudley, CEO of BP, said, “Although the rise of electric vehicles is inevitable, but the traditional car will last for several decades.We predicted that by 2035, electric vehicles will reach 1 million.Even if the electric car growth rate turned Fan, the road is still a lot of traditional vehicles.

2, gasoline demand decline may also be offset by other industry demand growth

Gasoline’s declining demand for oil is also likely to be offset by growth in air and heavy freight, and freight is harder to turn to alternative fuels. Petrochemical is also another source of long-term demand.

According to the International Energy Agency statistics, 2015 passenger cars accounted for 26% of global oil demand, more than aviation, shipping and petrochemicals. But then, with the conversion of passenger cars to electric cars, oil demand will turn to the head of shipping and petrochemicals.

Saudi oil chief executive Amin Nasser said last month that even if the traditional fuel began to lose market share, history tells us that the demand for oil will continue to rise.

Amin Nasser believes that even in the 20th century, coal growth, it is difficult to reduce the global market demand for oil.

In summary, the current global oil industry is still in the early stages of solving the problem of electric vehicles affecting the oil market. Some companies have begun to take precautions, some companies do not agree. Among them, Shell plans to spend billions of dollars a year to develop alternative energy, but this is still a small part of the overall capital expenditure.

“We are a $ 280 billion company, and we invest $ 25 billion to $ 30 billion a year, so ten years only, we will build a new shell, which gives us a lot of flexibility to adapt,” Shell executives said. Changes in global market demand. ”

August 9 news, the same day the news that the Libyan Sharala oil field in the short-term after the resumption of production to return to about 27 million barrels of normal level. The market worried about the crude oil market will continue to maintain oversupply situation, oil prices under pressure.

As of the day closing, the New York Mercantile Exchange in September delivery of light crude oil futures fell $ 0.22 to close at $ 49.17 a barrel, down 0.45%. October delivery of London Brent crude oil futures fell $ 0.23 to close at 52.14 US dollars a barrel, down 0.44%.

Recently the cobalt city and then welcome. According to the business data show that August 1 cobalt commodity index was 143.82, compared with the previous day rose 0.11 points, compared with the highest point in the cycle 145.08 points (2017-07-06) fell 0.87%, compared with July 10, 2016 The lowest point 69.84 points rose 105.93%. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far).

Cobalt material characteristics of outstanding, vertical and horizontal seven areas, the industry value chain to accelerate the development of the whole, the industry concentration steadily improved, cobalt rare when the benefits of multiple links: cobalt material physical and chemical properties, widely used in seven areas , Involving materials, chemicals, batteries and other aspects. Which lithium cobalt oxide and ternary material in the form of lithium battery as a cathode material, in the field of intelligent 3C and new energy vehicles a lot of applications. Coke prices in the current range, the cumulative increase in 2017 reached 65%. Relying on smart electronics, the demand for new energy vehicles heavy volume, the relevant cobalt raw materials in the downstream market applications will gradually increase, driving the entire upstream raw material production and development of enterprise scale expansion, forming a good cycle to strengthen the model. Downstream seven areas continue to rise in demand will also boost the demand for raw materials.

The supply side – the slowdown in the future growth is limited, the shortage cycle to promote the rise in cobalt prices: According to the cobalt two sources of mine + refining estimates, on the one hand the main mine lower yield, giants reluctant to sell behavior continued, cobalt ore production recovery rate is limited; On the one hand refining the cobalt industry continued to slump leading to the global production capacity of refined cobalt is limited, the two effects superimposed, the supply of short-term can not achieve sustained and stable output. We estimate the supply of cobalt, which 2017-2018 is expected to cobalt supply of 99089 tons and 102489 tons, an increase of 5.54% and 3.43%. Overall, 2017-2018 global cobalt supply and refined cobalt production growth rate will not be much improvement, heavy volume is not obvious, slow down the recovery rate, the supply cycle is still in the future, the basis of the future is more stable, logical Can stand.

Demand side – the seven downstream areas Qi force, support demand continued to grow: demand growth mainly from the demand for new energy vehicles brought ternary material with a substantial increase in cobalt content, high temperature alloy demand growth, carbide demand slowed. At the same time, industrial areas, 3C and energy storage capacity of cobalt growth will also maintain steady growth. In the global trend of irreversible development of new energy vehicles, ternary battery applications to enhance the proportion of the general trend of the future power battery will become the main increase in demand for cobalt. We expect the global cobalt demand in 2017 to 2019 will grow at a rate of 7% -9%. In 2017, the demand in 2018 will reach 123,400 tons and 132,700 tons respectively.

The supply of slow heavy volume superposition of the rapid growth of demand, the shortage of space still exists, the future growth of cobalt industry chain still in the overall view, cobalt resources supply and demand is not balanced, the future shortfall gap will expand, the possibility of rising cobalt prices will increase. It is expected that the shortage of space will be further widened in 2017-2018, facing a gap of 24,300 tons and 30,200 tons of raw materials. The growth rate of refined cobalt supply in the world is growing at a slower rate than cobalt consumption, mainly due to the strong growth of rechargeable batteries and aerospace industries. Cobalt industry chain into the inventory stage, which basically get support to regain the uplink power.

Overall, the first half of 2017 small metal plate market is good, although the product differentiation, but generally fell little, or significant increase. Which is the most eye-catching performance of cobalt, is a small metal plate deserved to star varieties. In the short-term fundamentals can not be changed under the premise of the market is expected to stabilize stability, some varieties such as indium, magnesium, antimony, bismuth, will be weak and stable, small metal index fluctuation range at 750-850 points.

According to institutional data, a large number of rare earth varieties on the 3rd offer a substantial increase, especially since this year, approaching 60% of praseodymium neodymium prices rise again.

Data show that July 31 to August 3, praseodymium from 49 million / ton up to 51 million / ton, neodymium from 365,000 yuan / ton rose to 38 million / ton, praseodymium neodymium rose 2 Million yuan / ton to 41.5 million / ton. Metal neodymium, metal praseodymium neodymium latest offer were 48 million / ton, 530,000 yuan / ton, respectively, up 15,000 yuan / ton and 30,000 yuan / ton. In addition, gadolinium oxide from 90,000 yuan / ton up to 95,000 yuan / ton, gadolinium iron rose 0.5 million / ton. Dysprosium oxide and dysprosium iron were up 2 million / ton. Erbium oxide rose 0.5 million yuan / ton.

Guotai Junan colored team that in July the domestic rare earth industry continued to “hit the black”, the main origin of Hunan, Guangdong is being verified, the industry supply and demand conditions continue to improve, rare earth prices will continue to bullish, during the year or do not see the end.

In addition, the Shanghai News reporter learned yesterday from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, Zhang source tungsten industry in the first half of August long offer has been released. Among them, black tungsten concentrate (WO3 ≥ 65%) offer for 91,000 yuan / ton, white tungsten concentrate (WO3 ≥ 65%) offer for 89,500 yuan / ton, were higher than the second half of July rose 0.65 million / Standard tons. Ammonium paratungstate (GB grade zero) offer for 14 million / ton (cash), compared with the second half of July rose 1 million / ton.

Everbright Securities Research report that the mine self-reduction, environmental supervision and production quota enforcement efforts to increase the upstream supply continued to tighten, downstream consumption remained stable, coupled with raw material suppliers bullish reluctant to sell mood, 2017 tungsten prices into the rising channel. With the improvement of supply and demand, tungsten prices are expected to continue to rise.

According to sources, the European polystyrene (PS) spot price fell last week compared to the previous week.

Wednesday, GM polystyrene (GPPS) spot FD Northwest Europe offer for 1,300 euros / ton, compared to the previous week down 20 euros / ton; high impact polystyrene (HIPS) spot FD Northwest Europe offer 1,380 euros / ton.

“Last week’s demand for health,” said one trader and added that he had traded several deals.

HIPS

But he also pointed out that the price is difficult to mention, because the market would have expected the price in August will be lower.

August styrene raw materials prices bearish, GPPS demand decline, even if the market is more active, it is difficult to support the price rise.

Another trader says there will be some inventory adjustments before the summer holiday arrives.

In addition, according to industry sources, Egypt E-styrenics is expected to restart GPPS production in the short term. But the news did not get the company’s comments.

E-styrenics GPPS production plant since the first quarter of this year began to shut down.

Traders said that although E-styrenics may be the first batch of products produced after the restart of the device supply to the local market, but also most likely in the near future exports to Europe.

According to Zion’s market research report, the market value of global biodegradable polymers in 2014 is about $ 1.68 billion, which is expected to reach $ 5.18 billion in 2020. 2015 to 2020, the annual growth rate of more than 21%.

The polymer is a long chain monomer compound formed by a chemical reaction. It consists of a large number of repeating units and the mass is very high. Biodegradable polymers can be broken down into simple, reusable natural products after completing their mission. Biodegradable polymers are non-toxic, do not harm the environment, can be maintained before degradation, and the degradation rate can also be controlled. Degradation of biodegradable polymers mainly by means of microorganisms, decomposition will produce such as carbon dioxide, organic fuels and water such as natural by-products.

The demand for biodegradable and biobased products is increasing as a result of sustainable development policies and increasing concerns about the use of environmentally friendly products, which is also a major driver of biodegradable polymers to capture the market. At the same time, the government supports the production of environmentally friendly biodegradable polymers is also a key factor in market growth. Oil-based polymer production of raw materials – crude oil prices also help to promote the demand for biodegradable polymers. However, biodegradable polymers are not used in the field of alternative synthetic petroleum based plastics, and are expensive to manufacture, so the production of accurate biodegradable polymers may affect market growth. Future, end-user applications and the price of raw materials for biodegradable polymers will provide potential market opportunities in the coming years.

The market for biodegradable polymers is based on type, application and region. Biodegradable polymers can be divided into hydrolyzable backbone polymers, carbon skeleton polymers and natural polymer polymers. Hydrolyzable backbone polymers are classified as polyglycolic acid (PGA), polycaprolactone (PCL), polyamide, polyurethane, in which polyglycolic acid (PGA) is widely used and consists of polyamide and polyurethane. Polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) is a polymer with a carbon backbone, and amylopectin, starch, chitin and chitosan are a class of natural macromolecules. Starch-based polymers are widely used in food packaging due to ease of use.

Biodegradable polymers are widely used in packaging, agriculture and medicine. In medical applications, biodegradable polymers are used to prevent adhesives, drug delivery systems and surgical sutures. In addition, biodegradable polymers are used for agricultural cover, and starch-based packaging, cellulose-based packaging and PLA-based packaging.

By region, Europe accounted for the main market for biodegradable polymers in 2014, largely due to the high concentration of green technology and manufacturing in Germany and the Netherlands. It is expected that during this period, the northern United States will grow significantly, as the region’s awareness of crude oil value and rising crude oil prices. Further, the Asia-Pacific region as India and China and other emerging economies, industrial development, it is possible to accelerate the growth of the market.

In the biodegradable polymer market, Cortec Group, Mitsui Chemicals, BASF, Biotech Co., Ltd. and the two companies, CereplastMetabolix and FP International and other companies are top companies. These market participants are committed to improving the production of biodegradable polymers by research and development to expand their application

According to Rosstat, Russia’s statistics show that Russia’s chemical production rose 7.4% year-on-year in the first half of the year, despite a decline in production in May and June, according to Rosstat, the Russian Bureau of Statistics.

In June this year, Russian chemical production fell 1.4% qoq, after May production fell 1.5% qoq.

Russian ethylene production in June was 257,000 tons, while in May was 260,000 tons. Overall, Russia’s ethylene production in the first half of this year reached 1.5 million tons, an increase of 10.2%.

Russian production in June fell to 106,000 tons, compared with 11.4 million tons in May production fell 7%, mainly due to the operation of the Russian oil company Angkorsk polymer plant plans to shut down maintenance. The first half of this year, Russian benzene production of more than 703,000 tons, an increase of 11.5%.

Russian xylene production in June was 35,300 tons, compared with 51,400 tonnes in May. The first half of this year, Russian xylene production was 276,900 tons, down 7.8%.

June caustic soda production was 10.3 million tons, down 5.2% qoq. The first half of this year, Russian caustic soda production of 61.78 million tons, an increase of 12.3%.

International oil prices since the end of June fell below $ 45 / barrel low after the two waves rebounded, but the rebound is not, twice in the 50 US dollars / barrel position suffered strong pressure down, indicating that the market confidence in the second half of the oil market is still insufficient , Mainly on the supply of potential growth is still more worried.

In fact, OPEC (OPEC) since the implementation of the implementation of the policy since the implementation is better. However, the second quarter OPEC grams of production has a slight increase in the trend. OPEC latest monthly data show that the overall output in June than in May increased by 40 million barrels / day to 3261 million barrels / day, more than the organization limited to 32.5 million barrels / day on the line level, the main increase from unrestricted production constraints Libya and Nigeria, as well as Saudi Arabia, Angola and Iraq. Therefore, the market has reason to worry about whether the OPEC in the second half to maintain the first half of the higher production rate.

US crude oil production also contributed to OPEC production efforts to reduce the results greatly reduced. US crude oil production has increased by nearly 12% to 940 million barrels per day in 2016. However, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) latest monthly report cut the US crude oil production in 2018. The agency predicted that 2018 US crude oil production 990 million barrels / day, an increase of 57 million barrels / day; and the agency in June forecast 2018 crude oil production will exceed 10 million barrels, an increase of 67 million barrels / day. Baker Hughes data show that the United States Permian basin nearly two months since the rapid growth rate of rigs, indicating that the current level of oil prices, the US shale oil production is expected to be too optimistic. Because the Permian is the United States shale oil 7 major areas in the lowest breakeven point, the lowest cost of mining quality oil and gas resources area.

In addition, the trend of declining global crude oil inventories is also being established. OPEC monthly data show that OECD commercial inventories have continued to decline this year, despite the slow decline in May stocks fell 12.9 million barrels to 3 billion barrels. At the same time, US commercial crude oil inventories have fallen to 500 million barrels, although it is also slow down. From the forecasts of OPEC and EIA, the overall demand for crude oil in 2018 is slightly larger than supply growth, although OPEC production is largely offset by higher US production, but supply and demand will be more balanced, the decline in inventory or will lead Oil prices.

Overall, the US crude oil production will continue to suppress the long-term increase in oil prices, if the OPEC in the first quarter of 2018 after the withdrawal agreement to increase production, the oil market will be volatile. However, the short term, as long as OPEC can continue to implement a better cut production agreement, the second half of the supply and demand situation will continue to improve. International oil prices are expected to still have the opportunity to rise in the second half, although the rise of space will not be too much. Therefore, at the current level of oil prices, can still continue to maintain long thinking.