In the first half of 2018, China’s xylene imports increased significantly compared with the same period of last year. According to customs data, China’s xylene imports from January to June totaled about 308,800 tons, an increase of 73,600 tons compared with the same period of last year, an increase of about 29.79%. Although the increase of more than 70,000 tons is not large, the increase is still considerable. According to the performance of each month, as shown in the following figure, the import volume in January was the most, and it fell in 2-4 months, but it was still higher than the same period of last year, and the import volume rebounded from May to June.

In the case of increasing domestic aromatics production capacity, xylene imports are still significantly higher than last year, reflecting the optimism of merchants on the Chinese market demand. Judging from the difference between the domestic and foreign prices of xylene in East China, the first half of the first half of the year and the majority of the time in April were in the same state. In most of the other time, the external price difference was in an upside down state, which was not conducive to xylene import, but many reasons made domestic merchants There is still a certain tendency to import xylene.

Based on the view of the spring market, the import of xylene in the January-February period was more positive, but at the same time, the inventory level of the East China Port was high, and the demand did not follow up in time, which caused the market to decline significantly, and the import supply failed to profit. At the same time, it also affected the enthusiasm of merchants in March and April. However, the inventory level of Huadong Port was seriously reduced in May, and the internal and external disk arbitrage space was large. The news that Tenglong Aromatics PX plant is expected to restart in the middle of the year made the importing of xylene enthusiasm again, which led to an increase in xylene import from May to June.

In the second half of the year, it is expected that the import of xylene will be reduced again in July-August. The primary influencing factor is the sharp decline in the RMB caused by the Sino-US trade war. The unstable exchange rate makes merchants import more cautious. Although the domestic xylene market trend still has a lot of expectations in August, the external disk price is 300-400 yuan/ton higher than the domestic price. The further increase of domestic price may not exceed this range. In addition, from July to August, it will be subject to Japanese solar iron work. The equipment is still in the process of overhaul, and the supply of xylene in Asia is relatively tight. Therefore, the import of xylene from July to August is expected to be at a low level during the year.

In the second half to the fourth quarter of the third quarter, xylene imports are expected to continue to rise, mainly due to the overhaul of PX devices in South Korea and Taiwan. Among them, Formosa Plastics plans to overhaul the No. 2 plant in Maitun from mid-August to August in August. Day, the No. 2 plant has an annual output of 573,000 tons of PX, 427,000 tons of pure benzene and 160,000 tons of OX. Korea Lotte plans to overhaul two PX plants in October for one month, of which the No. 1 plant has a PX rated capacity of 250,000 tons. / Year, the capacity of the No. 2 plant is 525,000 tons / year. More PX equipment overhaul will make the supply of Asian xylene more abundant in the second half of the third quarter and the fourth quarter. In addition, the Japanese solar iron aromatics unit is expected to restart in September, and the plant will produce 700,000 tons of isomerized xylene per year. The supply of toluene will increase. Therefore, the relationship between the internal and external discs is expected to reverse gradually from August to October, which will help domestic xylene imports rebound.

Since 2018, with the increasingly strict environmental protection and environmental protection in the economic belt along the Yangtze River, phosphate rock and phosphate fertilizer have entered the stage of de-capacity, the supply and demand structure has improved, prices have continued to rise, and the phosphate fertilizer industry has rebounded. For the second half of the market outlook, Tianfeng Securities predicts that the pressure of future environmental protection and supply-side reform will continue. With the peak season of phosphate fertilizer demand coming from August to October, the price of phosphate fertilizer products is expected to continue to rise, which will also promote Sylt and Xinyang. The profitability of Fengfeng and other phosphate compound fertilizers continued to increase.

Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from 2018 to April, the country’s cumulative production of phosphate ore was 32.7 million tons, compared with 46.94 million tons in the same period last year, a decrease of 14.24 million tons, down 30% year-on-year. It is understood that the production of phosphate fertilizer in the Yangtze River Economic Belt accounts for more than 80% of the country’s total output. With the promulgation of the “Eco-Environmental Protection Plan for the Yangtze River Economic Belt” and other documents, the production and production stoppage policies of major phosphate producing areas along the Yangtze River have been introduced. Under the pressure, the decline in phosphate ore production and supply tightening are the mainstream trends in the current industry.

Under the overall requirements of “Great Yangtze River Protection”, the phosphate compound fertilizer industry is faced with not only the shutdown and relocation, but also the historical opportunity of capacity replacement and optimization of structure. “Environmental and safety supervision and upgrading has brought not only pain to the industry, but also opportunities for industrial upgrading and advantageous enterprises,” said Chen Qingjun, deputy chief engineer of the Petrochemical Industry Planning Institute.

NEW YORK, July 31 news, COMEX copper rose to the highest level in two weeks on Tuesday.

August copper futures closed up 4 cents at $2.8190 a pound.

The most active September copper contract closed 3.95 cents higher at $2.8315 per pound.

Copper prices have rebounded slightly since hitting a one-year low earlier this month, but are still down nearly 14% from the four-year high set in June. Despite the price increase on Tuesday, copper futures were the worst since September 2017.

Some analysts worry that protecting the lives will reduce the demand for copper, which is used in everything from air conditioners to electric vehicles.

The Chilean state-owned copper company (Codelco) Chuquicamata copper mine union leader said that the copper miners left their posts on Monday and blocked the mine’s entrances and exits.

The Chilean state-owned copper company criticized the act as “illegal.” The copper mine is the company’s second largest copper mine.

BHP Billiton’s Escondida copper mine union leader said on Monday that the union is expected to reject the final version of the salary contract proposed by the employer, increasing the possibility of a strike. The mine is the world’s largest copper mine.

On July 29th, the PX Commodity Index was 61.00, which was the same as yesterday. It was 40.43% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 102.40 points (2013-02-28), which was 33.92% higher than the lowest point of 45.55 on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the domestic market price of para-xylene rose to 7687.5 yuan / ton, the equipment installation Pengzhou Petrochemical overhaul, Urumqi petrochemical plant started 50%, Tenglong aromatics plant has been in the parking, other devices temporarily stable, domestic p-xylene market supply is normal. The international PX installation rate is less than 70%. Sinopec’s PX settlement price in July rose 680 yuan/ton to 8140 yuan/ton. On July 27, the Asian p-xylene market closed price rose 15 US dollars/ton, and the closing price was 1030.5- 1032.5 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 1049.5-1051.5 US dollars / ton CFR China, US WTI crude oil September futures market prices fell, reported 68.69 US dollars / barrel, a decrease of 0.92 US dollars, Brent crude oil September futures prices fell, reported 74.29 US dollars / barrel, a decline of $ 0.25. The downstream PTA market was affected by the delay in resumption of production, and the PTA supply was slightly tight or continued. By the end of the 27th, the domestic PTA operating rate was around 80%, the PTA price continued to rise, and the average price in East China was 6315 yuan/ton. From the near mention, coupled with the downstream production and sales maintained relatively high level of smooth operation, PTA is still in a balanced state of small de-stocking, it is expected that the PX market price will be slightly higher in the later period.

Statistics from the Peruvian Central Bank show that in February, Peru’s mineral export value was 2.195 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 0.4% year-on-year; copper mine exports were 184,900 tons, down 16%. Lead exports amounted to 67,900 tons. Zinc exports amounted to US$245 million, an increase of 27%. Although export volume decreased by 5% to 105,300 tons, export prices increased by 34%.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) not only implemented the first joint production reduction plan in eight years, but also extended the deadline for the original production reduction agreement… Today, the OPEC production reduction agreement has achieved its goal, but whoever expected There are even more ambitious “ideals” for oil producing countries!

OPEC production cuts to achieve the goal!

According to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, OPEC and its allies have already concluded that they are close to eliminating excess supply and that they have achieved a key goal of reducing production ahead of their expectations.

The report pointed out that compared to the five-year average, the excess crude oil inventories that caused oil price pressure in the past three years have fallen by 97% since January 2017, and the market should achieve rebalancing this season.

All signs are now showing that they will continue to reduce production to further boost oil prices, and may even adjust their targets to provide continued justification for the market.

Informed sources said that the process of rebalancing the market is faster than expected, partly because the reduction in production in some countries exceeds the requirements of the agreement. They said that demand for crude oil is also rising due to the upcoming peak of the summer driving season in the northern hemisphere.

OPECs have more ambitious “ideals”…

According to Bloomberg’s latest news, the three-year excess inventory that caused oil prices to be under pressure has almost completely been cleared. However, some major oil-producing countries have not given a toast to celebrate. Instead, they have found reasons to continue reducing production.

The historic agreement reached before the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia has achieved excellent results and has completed 97% of the inventory overhang target.

However, the Minister of Energy of the State of Saudi Arabia Faleh said that because another important goal – to increase investment in oil and gas production – is still far from being reached, production-limiting measures should continue.

He said that there is nothing to be feared about as the price of oil rises further from its current three-year high.

Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak, the most important ally of Faleh, also agrees that the initial goal of the agreement—the inventory return to the five-year average—is already within reach, but it does not mean that production must stop. “We have goals, but we don’t have a strict decision formula. For example, ‘they have reached zero, so the task is completed’,” Novak told reporters at the group’s opening ceremony at the Saudi Jeddah meeting on Friday.

On April 19, 2018, the Ministry of Commerce issued the No. 39 Announcement of 2018, which promulgated the preliminary ruling on anti-dumping investigations of imported halobutyl rubber (also known as halogenated butyl rubber) originating in the United States, the European Union, and Singapore.

The Ministry of Commerce initially ruled that the import of halogenated butyl rubber originating in the United States, the European Union and Singapore was dumped, the domestic halobutyl rubber industry was substantially damaged, and there was a causal relationship between dumping and substantial damage, and the decision was made to originate in the United States. , EU and Singapore imported halogenated butyl rubber products implement temporary anti-dumping measures in the form of security deposits.

According to the ruling, since April 20, 2018, when import operators import halogenated butyl rubber originating in the United States, the European Union, and Singapore, they should base their decision on the dumping margins (26.0%-66.5%) of each company. The Customs of the People’s Republic of China provides corresponding deposits.

In response to the application of domestic halogenated butyl rubber industry, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement on August 30, 2017, deciding to initiate an anti-dumping investigation against imports of halobutyl rubber originating in the United States, the European Union, and Singapore. The product is classified under the “Import and Export Tariff of the People’s Republic of China”: under the tariff numbers 40023910 and 40023990.

On April 4, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council decided to impose a tariff of 25% on 14 categories of 106 products such as soybeans, automobiles, and chemical products originating in the United States, including 44 types of chemicals, including liquefied propane, some ethylene polymers, and acrylic acid. Polymers, Acrylonitrile, Pure Polyvinyl Chloride, Polycarbonates, Methyl Phosphonates, Epoxy Resins, etc. Increasing the tariffs on certain chemical products exported to China will indirectly increase the sales prices of domestic production of such chemical companies, but increase the cost of importing such chemical companies.

Industry News

1. China announced that it imposed tariffs on 106 U.S. products, including liquefied propane, some ethylene polymers, acrylic polymers, acrylonitrile, pure polyvinyl chloride, polycarbonates, methyl phosphonates, and epoxy resins. Etc. (WIND Information);

2. In 2018, China’s LNG consumption will reach 44 million tons, which is twice the US export of LNG of 22 million tons. If all U.S. LNG exports to China will bring about 6.7 billion U.S. dollars in revenue, this will only reduce the U.S.-China trade deficit by less than 2% (China Petroleum News Center);

3. API crude oil inventories fell by 3.28 million barrels last week, gasoline inventories increased by 1.12 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels, and Cushing’s crude oil inventories increased by 4.06 million barrels. (WIND Information) Company News

In recent years, China’s economic development has increased the demand for commodities, and the real economy needs the price discovery of futures markets. This has enabled the industry to call for years of crude oil futures to finally land.

On March 26th, China’s first international futures, crude oil futures, was listed on the Shanghai International Energy Trading Center. Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission Liu Shiyu attended the listing ceremony and said that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has the confidence, determination and ability to build a crude oil futures market with Chinese characteristics and function well. This will better protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors and better serve the entity. Contribution to high quality economic development.

Since the Securities and Futures Commission approved the official listing transaction at the end of 2014, the road to the listing of crude oil futures has taken more than three years in China. The Chinese economy has continued to develop rapidly in recent years and has long been a major commodity demand and import country in the world. However, we have very weak voice power over the pricing of commodities. Taking crude oil as an example, although China is the world’s largest crude oil importer, the second largest crude oil consumer, and the eighth largest crude oil producer, the purchase of crude oil can still only be based on the pricing of European and American crude oil futures exchanges. Such a huge interest And the market cannot but be regretted.

As an international platform, the crude oil futures trading, settlement, and delivery transactions that have been listed a few days ago are all internationalized designs. Domestic and foreign traders can participate more freely. This is to form a benchmark price that reflects the relationship between supply and demand in the crude oil market in China and Asia-Pacific time zones, and enhance China’s trade.