With the end of the domestic spring inspection, the increase in supply is inevitable, while imports will also pick up, the port inventory will continue to increase.

In the case of increased supply and difficult to increase demand, methanol weak market will continue. With the end of the domestic spring inspection, the increase of production equipment, the subsequent supply of methanol will continue to increase, at the same time, foreign devices are also facing the completion of maintenance after the restart situation, the import volume will gradually increase. From the demand side, MTO downstream product prices are falling, the enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase methanol is low, MTO demand is difficult to increase, traditional demand changes little.

As a result, the low price of methanol is inevitable.

Spring inspection is coming to an end Into April, methanol spring maintenance launched, the start rate decreased significantly, but with the increase in subsequent production devices, the start rate will gradually pick up. According to Jin Lianchuang statistics, April 25, the national methanol construction rate of 63.58%, a rise of 0.93%, which is the first recovery after four consecutive weeks of decline, of which the Northwest Territories start rate of 74%, a rise of 5%, mainly in the early April maintenance of the device has been re-production, such as Jutai, Huating, Jintai Thai 51 pre-production, And the new Austrian two, rongxin maintenance device is also in the restart, it is expected that the opening rate of northwest China will continue to rise after the festival.

May, although there are still some pre-delayed maintenance of the device into the overhaul, but the completion of the pre-maintenance after the restart of more devices, the start rate will show a gradual upward trend, the domestic supply pressure is increasing.

Expected increase in imports The maintenance of foreign installations is also coming to an end, and imports will pick up again in May. According to the General Administration of customs, 2019 years ago two months of methanol imports in 1.616 million tons, 3 April forecast will fall to about 650,000 tons, and May will again recover to more than 700,000 tons. Methanol prices fell sharply in the four quarter of last year, leading to the early entry of international installations in February-March, such as Iran ZPC330 million tons of equipment completed in March, the current operation is smooth, Iran Marjan175 tons of methanol plant in March after parking to complete the restart in early April ; The Malaysian oil company’s 2.36 million-ton device was restarted at the end of March and is now functioning well; the Venezuelan Metor255 million-ton device was also restarted before 51 knots. In terms of arrival, the number of arrivals in early April began to increase significantly in mid-April, Taicang, Changzhou, Zhangjiagang and other places in May can be tense, according to the current arrival volume calculation, port inventory will rise again.

As a result, imports will increase significantly in May, with increased supply-side pressure.

Port MTO Profit is low Port olefin prices fell sharply at the end of 2018, leading to MTO profits have been low and demand for methanol has been difficult to increase. Crude oil prices fell sharply in the four quarter of last year, and downstream crude oil products were not spared, and the port MTO combined profit was at a low level. In the case of ethylene glycol, a vinyl product, the supply and demand side deteriorated with the production capacity, and the price of ethylene glycol fell by nearly 40% from 7500 yuan/ton in early October 2018 to the end of April 2019. Acrylic end product PP price fell less, but also 20%. Taken together, the port MTO profit is at a low level in the past five years, which will affect the progress of the production of 1.8 million tons of new devices in Nanjing Zhicheng two. In addition, the MTO plant is expected to resume in early May, Qinghai Salt Lake Olefin device in mid-April to stop again, restart to be determined.

For now, MTO demand is difficult to increase. On the traditional demand side, it is also difficult to have a big upturn.

Formaldehyde construction rate of 28.25%, the weekly decline of 1.6%, acetic acid start rate of 80.71%, the weekly increase of 10.72%, other changes are small. To sum up, with the end of domestic spring inspection, supply increase is inevitable, while imports will also pick up, port inventory will continue to increase. From the demand side, MTO profit has been maintained at a low level since this year, which not only affects the production of new devices, but also affects the subsequent procurement volume of methanol, while traditional demand is affected by environmental protection is also difficult to increase. In the case of increased supply and difficult to increase demand, methanol weak market will continue.

BP recently released the 2019 Chinese version of BP World Energy outlook in Beijing.

According to the BP World Energy outlook, natural gas will become a major increase in future energy consumption in the outlook period, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7% per cent for natural gas supply and demand, that is, an increase of almost 50% per cent by 2040, the only energy to grow as a share of renewables.

A rapid growth of natural gas consumption in China Data show that China’s total energy consumption of 4.64 billion tons of standard coal in 2018, an increase of 3.3% over the previous year. In terms of segmentation, coal consumption increased by 1%, crude oil consumption increased by 6.5%, natural gas consumption increased by 17.7% and electricity consumption increased by 8.5%.

Coal consumption accounted for 59% of total energy consumption, down 1.4% from the previous year, crude oil consumption accounted for 20.3% of total energy consumption, an increase of 0.6%, natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and other clean energy consumption accounted for 20.7% of total energy consumption, an increase of 0.8%.

From the BP Outlook, the absolute amount of coal consumption in China will decline in the future, the absolute amount of crude oil consumption still has a small growth space, but the proportion of both will be further compressed, and the natural gas market still has more than 200% of the huge growth space, which is the next 20 years China’s primary energy growth point. Unlike the abundant reserves of coal resources, China’s limited reserves of oil and gas resources have been difficult to meet the rapidly growing demand for oil and natural gas consumption. China overtook the United States as the world’s largest importer of crude oil in 2017, surpassing Japan as the world’s largest importer of natural gas in 2018. Especially in recent years, due to rapid economic development, rising energy demand triggered a steady increase in imports, crude oil imports 462 million tons in 2018, import growth rate of 10%, natural gas imports exceeded 90 million tons (125.4 billion cubic meters), the growth rate is up to 32%. The data show that China’s crude oil dependence degree in 2018 has reached 72%, natural gas external dependence reached more than 45%, and this external dependence is becoming more and more serious.

The final share of crude oil imports is likely to exceed 75%, approaching 80%, the share of natural gas imports will exceed 50% in 2 years, and consumption will continue to grow by 200% over the Outlook period, and imports will also have much room for growth. By comparison, we can find that natural gas production in recent years has maintained a relatively rapid growth, which mainly stems from the large-scale development of natural gas resources in China late, there is still a certain capacity potential can be excavated.

For the crude oil industry, which has been developed earlier, the production capacity has been basically fully excavated, and some oilfields have passed the peak production period. China’s crude oil production has been basically stable since 2010, and has even declined in recent years. Although there are differences in the potential of the production end, the combination of the two lies in a significant increase in external imports at the same time, because only increasing imports can meet China’s demand for crude oil and natural gas resources.

B Global distribution of natural gas reserves Natural gas is a collective term of mixed gas with hydrocarbon as the main body in underground rock reservoirs, with a specific gravity of about 0.65, which is lighter than air and has the characteristics of colorless, tasteless and non-toxic. The main ingredient alkanes, of which methane accounts for the vast majority, with a small amount of ethane, propane and butane.

As a clean energy source, it can reduce sulfur dioxide and dust emissions by nearly 100%, reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 60% and NOx emissions by 50%, and has become more and more widely used in China’s industrial and civil fields in recent years. By the end of 2017, the top ten countries with proven global natural gas reserves were Russia, Iran, Qatar, Turkmenistan, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, the UAE, China and Nigeria, with Russia’s proven reserves of up to 34.97 trillion cubic meters. Five of the world’s top ten natural gas fields are located in Russia, namely Urengoy, Shtokman, Yamburg, Zapolyarnoye, Bovanenko gas fields. Siberia’s natural gas reserves account for about 50% of Russia’s total reserves.

GAZPROM is the world’s largest producer of natural gas. Russia has now become an important importer of natural gas in China because of its abundant natural gas reserves and its proximity to China.

After the completion of the East line of the Sino-Russian natural gas pipeline, 38 billion square natural gas (about 34 million tons of oil equivalent) is delivered to China at the highest annual level. The proven reserves of natural gas in Iran and Qatar are 33.22 trillion cubic metres and 24.92 trillion cubic metres, respectively, with the world’s largest natural gas Tinampars field, a large part of which is located in Iran (the other part is in Qatar). According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), an estimated 51 trillion cubic metres of natural gas and 50 billion barrels of condensate are stored in the South Pars gas field. It is worth mentioning that, according to the total reserves of proven oil and gas equivalent (crude oil + natural gas), Iran reached 382.2 billion barrels, nearly 18% per cent higher than Saudi Arabia (321.3 billion barrels in Saudi Arabia).

In other words, Iran is actually the real first oil and gas power in the Middle East, not Saudi Arabia. Turkmenistan ranks # 17.5 trillion of the world’s proven reserves of natural gas, converting 115.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent, which is higher than the proven oil reserves (102.4 billion barrels) of Russia as a whole. It is important to stress that China’s PetroChina has invested heavily in natural gas projects in Turkmenistan.

Turkmenistan is the country that supplies the largest number of natural gas to China, and its natural gas is an important source of gas in China’s west-to-east gas transmission. Shale gas in unconventional natural gas is a market hotspot in recent years, and according to a May 2018 report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), China ranks first in the world (up to 31.6 trillion cubic meters) in shale gas reserves, which is close to the proven reserves of Russian gas; Argentina ( 22.7 trillion cubic metres), Algeria (20 trillion cubic metres), the United States (17.7 trillion cubic metres) and Canada (16.2 trillion cubic metres) ranked second to fifth, respectively. Currently, the world’s total exploitable shale gas reserves are expected to reach 214.5 trillion cubic metres, a total reserve equivalent to 61 years of global natural gas consumption in the current context. The report, which is also confirmed in a forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), says China has the resources to become the largest shale gas reserve (1115 trillion trillion cubic feet, 31.6 trillion cubic meters), far more than Argentina, now the world’s second-largest shale gas reserve country.

The crux of the problem is that large-scale shale gas mining is currently carried out only in North America, where the United States and Canada are located, and China is significantly ahead of other countries in terms of shale gas reserves, with deep mining potential, but there is still a big difference between the potential and ability of shale gas mining and the proven recoverable reserves, and it is still not known how

C major producers of natural gas Statistics show that the global share of production in the United States and Russia in the major gas producers in 2017 was 20% and 17%, respectively. After the shale oil revolution, the United States produced more natural gas than Russia, and still has great potential for development.

Notably, natural gas production in the Middle East has been growing at a high rate since 2000, and it will be a central force in the global increase in natural gas during the outlook period. Iran, Qatar Although the current phase seems to be a large gap with the United States and Russia gas production, but the subsequent potential is huge, two countries with abundant reserves in the future is expected to catch up, it appears that the two countries are increasing investment, increase their domestic gas exports, in recent years the growth rate is clear, the future to occupy a larger market share will be a foregone

Turkmenistan, which also has a huge reserves, is not in the top ten producing countries, but for my country, as an important supplier of resources, its status is very important for the security of our energy supply, and steadily advancing the country’s natural gas development is a reasonable way to cooperate. China is the sixth largest natural gas producer, because of weather, environmental protection and other reasons, China itself does not export natural gas, but need to import a large amount of natural gas.

D major consumer countries of natural gas The “2018 domestic and foreign oil and gas Industry Development Report” released by the China Petroleum Group Institute of Economic Technology shows that global gas consumption in 2018 was about 3.86 trillion cubic meters, a growth rate of 5.3%, 2.3 times times the average of 2.3% in the past 5 years. Among them, the United States, Russia, China ranked in the top three consumer countries. About 1.21 trillion cubic meters of natural gas in the world need to be imported to meet consumer demand, accounting for about 1/3 of total natural gas consumption, importing countries, China, Japan, Germany, the top three, import volume exceeded 100 billion cubic meters, especially China’s 2018 years of imports jumped nearly 35 billion cubic meters,

Reached 125.4 billion cubic metres. U.S. gas consumption is well ahead of other countries, with total gas consumption of 848.135 billion cubic meters (82.06 billion cubic feet per day) in 2018. EIA predicts that future U.S. gas consumption will grow steadily on the basis of 2018. Natural gas, after oil, is the second largest source of energy consumption in the United States, accounting for about 29% of total primary energy consumption in the United States.

2017, the main consumption of natural gas in the United States in five industries: industry, accounting for 35%; Power generation, accounted for 34%; civil, accounted for 16%; commerce, accounting for 12%; and transport, accounting for 3%. Russia, the world’s second-largest consumer of natural gas, consumed 454.5 billion cubic metres in 2018. Previous data show that Russia’s primary energy consumption composition of natural gas accounted for 53.6%, followed by oil accounted for 19.1%, coal accounted for 16.4%, nuclear power accounted for 5%, hydropower accounted for 5.9%. The main areas of natural gas consumption are power generation and household consumption.

75% of the natural gas consumed by Russian domestic industry and residents is supplied by Gazprom, which had a domestic supply of 307 billion cubic meters to Russia in 2005. China ranks third in global gas consumption, consuming 276.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2018. In terms of consumption structure, according to the data of Prospective research institute, Urban Gas, industry and power generation gas are the main driving forces of natural gas consumption growth, accounting for 36%, 33% and 22% of total natural gas consumption respectively, and chemical gas use accounts for about 9%. In the face of huge demand growth rate, although China has made efforts to increase domestic production, but still far from meeting the demand, natural gas imports quickly increased, 2018 China’s natural gas dependence of more than 45%, the second half of the annual up to 48%. According to the forecast, China’s natural gas consumption in 2019 will exceed 300 billion cubic meters, an increase of 11.3% year-on.

The government’s “Blue Sky Defense” action Plan continues to be implemented, and the environmental factors will continue to be the main driving force behind the short-term promotion of domestic gas demand in various localities to strengthen the management of scattered coal.

E natural gas Import in China presents diversified pattern China’s annual imports of natural gas from abroad include pipeline gas and LNG two ways, the current LNG import ratio of nearly 60%, pipeline gas imports about 40%, which is different from the global natural gas trade pipeline gas and LNG accounted for a greater difference. 2018 Global Pipeline Gas trade volume of 771 billion cubic meters, the global LNG trade volume of 324 million tons (440.6 billion cubic meters), pipeline gas trade accounted for up to 64%.

By comparison, we can find that pipeline transportation still has great growth potential in the growth of China’s natural gas industry. At present, China’s pipeline gas trade imported pipeline gas used in the transmission pipeline and domestic gas connection, imported LNG relies on the construction of LNG receiving station for transit storage. Of all the overseas LNG entering the receiving station, about 30% per cent were re-gasified and entered the pipeline, and about 70% were shipped to the downstream consumer markets in the form of LNG, such as tankers, which would change significantly with the establishment of the national oil and gas pipeline company. At the beginning of 2019, the national oil and gas pipeline company formation program has been approved and included in the 2019 SASAC key work plan, is expected to be formally established this year.

The establishment of oil and gas pipeline company is mainly to solve the problem of interconnection of natural gas pipe network and lag of pipeline construction. According to the “2018-2023 China New Energy industry development prospects and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report”, the main importer of pipeline natural gas in China is Turkmenistan, accounting for 83% of total imports, and other importing countries are Myanmar, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, especially from Uzbekistan

, Kazakhstan’s imports of pipeline gas increased significantly by 25%, an increase of 15% over the previous year; LNG mainly imports Australia, Qatar, Malaysia, Indonesia, the total number of four countries accounted for 81%. Although Russia is a major gas producer and has a geographical advantage bordering China, it has previously imported very little natural gas from Russia. Data show that in 2018, China only imported 730,000 tons of natural gas from Russia, accounting for less than 1% of the total import volume. With the completion of the construction of the corresponding pipeline in the future and the completion of large LNG projects such as Yamal, China will import more and more natural gas from Russia, and it is expected that by 2020, China’s natural gas import pipeline gas transmission capacity can reach 127 billion cubic meters, of which the Chinese and Russian import pipeline gas capacity can reach 60 billion cubic meters.

Review of the impact of oil price trend between 一、五一期 Entering the May, the United States formally imposed sanctions on the Iranian side, cancelling the immunity of other countries from crude oil imports to Iran’s crude oil. In addition to the OPEC release to continue to cut production of good support, oil prices have been temporarily rebound opportunity. However, U.S. crude inventories grew by an increase in net imports to their highest level since September 2017, while U.S. production refreshed highs again, while uncertainty over sanctions on the Iranian side exacerbated the fall in international oil prices, according to US EIA data.

It then rebounded temporarily or slightly under favourable conditions for the dollar to fall and Russia to continue to cut production.

Ii. Analysis of US EIA data this week Inventory aspects: As of April 19, the Week, U.S. crude oil inventories 460.633 million barrels, the highest level since October 2017, up 5.48 million barrels from the previous week; the total U.S. gasoline stock was 225.826 million barrels, down 2.13 million barrels from the previous week; the distillate oil depot stock was 127.029 million barrels, down 660,000 barrels from the previous week.

The Cushing area has a crude oil stockpile of 44.912 million barrels, an increase of 463,000 barrels. Import and export aspects: As of April 19, the Week, Last week, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.149 million barrels a day, an average of 1.157 million barrels a year from the previous week, and a daily average of 2.681 million barrels of U.S. crude oil exports, an increase of 280,000 barrels a day over the previous week, an increase of 350,000 barrels over the same period last year, and an average of 4.468 million barrels of net U.S. crude oil in the past week

。

Processing: As of April 19, the total amount of refinery processing in the United States averaged 16.583 million barrels per day, an increase of 505,000 barrels compared with the previous week, and the refinery start rate was 90.1%, an increase of 2.4% over the previous week. Yield: As of April 19, the average daily production of U.S. crude oil was 12.3 million barrels, an increase of 100,000 barrels a week compared with the average daily output.

Three, multi-empty influence against each other

1, the factors of profit and multi: Venezuela’s political crisis has intensified, threatening the state’s export of crude oil, which has fallen as a result of US sanctions.

Thousands of marchers rallied this week in response to opposition Leader Guardiola’s call for May 1 to hold an operation against President Nicolas Maduro. The U.S. government has asked all buyers to stop importing Iranian oil from this week or face sanctions.

Previously, OPEC member Iran’s eight largest buyers, most of them Asian countries, were allowed to import a limited amount of Iranian oil. The Saudis welcomed the US move to end all Iranian sanctions exemptions and said they were prepared to meet the needs of oil consumers by replacing Iranian oil supplies. Meanwhile, Saudi energy ministers say there has been a lot of discussion with energy ministers from other oil-producing countries, and basically everyone wants the deal to cut production to be extended.

In addition to the Saudi energy minister: Saudi crude oil exports are expected to be below 7 million barrels/day by the end of May.

Iran’s oil minister, Zangane, said in Thursday (May 2) that Iran would respond if other OPEC members threatened Iran’s interests. In Friday, the Labor Department reported a significant 263,000 increase in non-farm employment in April, with unemployment falling to 3.6%, a low of more than 49 years.

In addition, the labour participation rate in April fell to 62.8% per cent in the previous 63%. It is reported that two industry sources said May 3, because of Russian crude oil contaminated with organic chlorinated pollution caused by serious disruption of exports, Russian oil producers have received the pipeline Monopoly Enterprise Transneft notice, demand to reduce production by May 7 900,000 tons.

The figure is estimated to be equivalent to about 10% of Russia’s total oil production, equivalent to a production cut of more than 1 million barrels/day in the coming days.

2, the negative factors:

Russian oil output fell from 11.3 million barrels per day in March to 11.23 million barrels per day in April, but is still higher than the target set by the agreement to cut production, according to data released by the Russian Ministry of Energy in Thursday.

U.S. crude inventories increased to their highest level in September 2017 due to net imports of crude oil for January, while U.S. crude oil production rose to a record high of 12.3 million barrels/day, according to EIA data.

China’s April official manufacturing Purchasing Managers ‘ index (PMI) fell to 50.1, down from the median survey estimate of 50.5, down 0.4% from the previous month, and in April the/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 50.2, with the median survey estimated at 51.0 and 50.8 respectively last month.

Iv. Pre-market preview The United States has formally begun to impose full sanctions on Iran, removing exemptions from other countries for crude oil imports from Iran. It is worth noting that U.S. stocks on the Iranian side of the sanctions can be approved by China, Turkey and other major Iranian crude oil imports have not yet been decided. From processing for a short time to find Iran crude oil substitution has its own and difficulties. Iran’s current export volume in 1 million barrels per day, once it becomes 0, Saudi Russia and other countries can not close the supply gap in the short term, while Iran’s crude oil exports are completely restricted, the greater possibility of armed blockade of the Hormuz, Str. Of, increase supply disruption, oil prices will be a big rise in the opportunity. So the focus of the market will shift to the OPEC conference and whether the United States is again exempt from Iranian crude oil imports.

Since May 2, the United States has formally suspended its crude oil export exemption from Iran in an attempt to impose a total ban on Iranian crude oil exports. 3rd–The United States also announced the strengthening of restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities.

The analysis argues that U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and OPEC-led production cuts have already caused a shortfall in global crude supply, at a time when the continued decline in Iranian crude oil exports will trigger a shock in the global crude oil market.

Iran’s crude oil exports continue to slide Last May, the United States unilaterally announced its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, restarted economic sanctions against it, and demanded that the countries concerned stop importing Iranian crude oil on November 4, 2018.

Last November, the United States announced additional sanctions against Iran, but allowed the eight largest importers of Iranian crude oil to continue importing limited quantities of crude oil from Iran, including China, Turkey, India, South Korea and Japan.

Previous U.S. sanctions have halved Iran’s daily exports to 1 million barrels, or less, while the suspension of exemptions for Iran’s crude oil exports means the United States will cut Iran’s crude oil exports to 0. An Iranian official familiar with crude oil policy said Iran’s crude oil exports could fall to 700,000 barrels a day, or even as low as 500,000 barrels, from May. Iran’s crude oil exports could remain around 40 to 600,000 barrels a day, an OPEC source said.

Analysts at Energy Aspects expect Iranian crude oil exports to fall to about 600,000 barrels a day from May.

For now, market participants generally believe that Iran’s crude oil exports have fallen from at least 2.5 million barrels a day in April 2018, one months before US president Trump withdrew from the U.S. nuclear deal with Iran. In April, the White House issued a public statement demanding that all Iranian crude buyers must stop importing by May 1 or face sanctions, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The analysis says the White House aims to cut the lifeline of Iran’s annual revenue of $50 billion in crude oil to pressure the Iraqi side to limit its nuclear program and ballistic missile tests. That sparked resentment in Iran, where Iran’s oil minister, Biyang Zangne, told members of Congress that the Trump Administration’s sanctions waiver plan would never be met: “It is impossible for the United States to expect to cut off Iran’s oil exports. We will do our best to break the United States sanctions.

” Iran is bypassing U.S. sanctions to sell crude oil in the “grey market,” a senior Iranian Oil ministry official said 5th. State media the Islamic Republic of Iran news agency quoted Amir Hussein Zamaninha, deputy minister of oil, as saying Iran “has mobilized all the country’s resources to sell crude oil in the ‘ grey market ‘.”

Zamaniya did not explain the meaning of the “grey market” and the details of the disclosure, including the volume of crude oil exports. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif told Reuters April 25 that “there is always a way to bypass the sanctions” and that the Iraqi side will make every effort to continue selling crude oil. Zarif declined to disclose the oil sales targets considered by the Iraqi side.

Zamaniya said 5th that the Iraqi side in the “grey market” oil sales “is not smuggling, but to resist illegal sanctions by the United States.” Iran’s oil minister, Zangane, said 1st that Iran had launched a number of new channels to secure oil exports. Mr Zan said oil exports were the most important part of Iran’s oil industry and that Iran might allow private capital to invest in Iranian oil in the future.

Increased uncertainty in crude oil market OPEC secretary General Balquindo said it was impossible to remove Iran completely from the global crude oil market, and the reduction in Iran’s crude oil output would exacerbate the threat to the global crude oil market.

Balquindo said the OPEC secretariat was in discussions with Iran’s oil ministry about the response. Some OPEC members now face international sanctions. OPEC’s general secretary, Balquindo, said in Tehran 2nd that OPEC would do its utmost to avoid a global “energy crisis.” ‘ We will continue to focus on the goal of avoiding an energy crisis because it could affect the global economy, Balquindo said.

OPEC members have pledged to be united and not to fall back on the chaos they have faced in recent years. Although US President Trump has asked Saudi Arabia to take the lead in increasing oil production to make up for supply shortages caused by U.S. sanctions against Iran, the Saudi energy minister has said the country will not rush to increase crude oil supplies and will continue to comply with a deal to cut production reached by major oil producers late last year, possibly even extending the deal until the end of the year.

That means the Saudis still want to maintain the current state of production cuts. Under the current deal to cut production, OPEC producers and non-OPEC producers, led by Russia, will cut production of 1.2 million barrels of crude oil a day until the end of June this year.

OPEC and its allies will meet in Vienna from June 25 to 26th to discuss the next production plan.

But when it comes to the impact of the situation in Iran on the oil market, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Falih has said there is no shortage of supply in the world market, there is nothing to worry about.

Multi-country calls for resumption of dialogue

After terminating the oil import exemption, it is theoretically that no country or region has a legal way to trade crude oil with Iran, and it is difficult for any bank to deal with operations involving Iran’s crude oil transactions, and all shipping vessels exported by Iranian crude oil may also be seized by the United States Navy.

The High Representative of the European Union and the foreign ministers of France, Germany and Britain issued a joint statement on the Iran nuclear deal on the 4th, expressing regret and concern at the United States decision not to grant any countries and regions the exemption to continue importing Iranian crude oil, and expressing concern that the United States should end its exemption from some of Iran’s nuclear non-proliferation projects within the framework The statement said the parties involved in the Iran nuclear deal are committed to maintaining Iranian capital flows and export trade, and are working with relevant third parties to support the Iranian nuclear deal. The EU and Franco-German and British will continue to work with other European partners to maintain legal trade with Iran, particularly through the INSTEX clearing mechanism for trade with the country. In addition, the participants concerned will significantly increase their financial support for the INSTEX clearing mechanism. France, Germany and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement earlier this year announcing the establishment of a INSTEX clearing mechanism for trade with Iran.

The mechanism, which is full of “trade support Tools”, is a payment mechanism operating outside the US-led global financial system, helping European companies bypass unilateral U.S. sanctions against Iran and allow the EU to continue trading with Iran. Over the past year, US sanctions have taken a huge hit on Iran’s economy. According to the International Monetary Fund, inflation in Iran has soared to 40% per cent since the US restarted sanctions against Iraq, and 42,000 of miles has been able to exchange 1 of dollars. The IMF expects Iran’s gross national product (GDP) to continue to decline this year.

Recently, a seminar on standardization of healthy development of fertilizer industry was held in Shanghai, sponsored by the National Technical Committee for Standardization of Fertilizers and Soil Conditioners and sponsored by the Journal of Chemical Fertilizer Industry. It was learned from the meeting that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas, the National Technical Committee for Standardization of Fertilizers and Soil Conditioners, and other departments are sorting out, brewing and promulgating a series of new standards, re-orienting the development direction of fertilizer industry from the top design, and building a food safety and healthy life chain from the source.

Xu Jingying, deputy director of the Fertilizer and Water Saving Department of the Planting Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas, said that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas had already listed several topics, and that when conditions were ripe, it would issue a series of new standards related to the safe and healthy development of the fertilizer industry.

It is understood that the National Technical Committee for Standardization of Fertilizers and Soil Conditioners is currently working on optimizing or formulating relevant standards for the fertilizer industry, including “Limit Requirements for Toxic and Hazardous Substances in Fertilizers” and “Green Product Evaluation Fertilizer”.

Mai Yongyi, vice president of Shanghai Chemical Research Institute and chairman of the National Technical Committee for Standardization of Fertilizers and Soil Conditioners, explained that after completing the mission of solving the problem of food and clothing, chemical fertilizers now have to face food safety and people’s health problems caused by environmental pollution, soil degradation and poor quality of agricultural products. “Safeguarding people’s health from the source through the construction of standard system is a new subject for fertilizer industry to explore.” Mai Yongyi said.

Shang Zhaocong, executive vice director of the National Chemical Fertilizer Quality Supervision and Inspection Center (Shanghai) and secretary-general of the National Technical Committee for Standardization of Fertilizers and Soil Conditioners, believes that the fertilizer industry is facing negative growth in usage and some pressure of “demonization” public opinion. It is urgent to focus on “health” and achieve healthy operation of enterprises and healthy industrial development through the restraint and guidance of the standard system. Health, industrial chain health, food chain health and life health. According to Shang Zhaocong, the function of chemical fertilizer is being given a new historical task. In the past, chemical fertilizer was used to meet the requirements of food quantity, but now it is necessary to meet the requirements of quality and make food healthier.

Wei Jing, Director of Quality Department of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, said that the current standardization construction of fertilizer industry should be carried out around two main lines, one is high-quality development, the other is green development. Green development has become a national strategy, which is also a task that the chemical fertilizer industry has to complete. In the future, green products, green factories and green parks will be developed at different levels in order to promote the establishment of green manufacturing system in the industry.

According to Chen Mingliang, deputy director and professor-level senior engineer of the Fertilizer Institute of Shanghai Institute of Chemical Research, soil conditioner has been developing actively in recent years, but there are many sources of raw materials, unstable process quality and low technology level of products. More scientific standards are urgently needed to be issued to regulate and guide it.

Ms. Yang Yi, National Technical Committee for Standardization of Fertilizers and Soil Conditioners, introduced that the future fertilizer standard system would be optimized into four parts. Among them, the national mandatory standards are designed to ensure safety and bottom line; recommend national standards to achieve basic universal and mandatory standards supporting; industry standards to unify industry requirements; and group standards to meet market and innovation needs.

For the optimization of standards, Xu Jingying believes that fertilizer standards include four categories: general standards, product standards, testing standards and safety standards, and the urgently needed general standards and safety standards are relatively scarce.

On April 25, tank trucks loaded with 50 tons of liquefied petroleum gas arrived in Myanmar smoothly through the Sino-Myanmar border. This is the first time that Yunnan PetroChina International Enterprise Co., Ltd. (referred to as the State of Yunnan) has exported liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) produced by Yunnan Petrochemical Company to Myanmar, marking the opening of the southwest export channel of LPG for PetroChina.

In recent years, Myanmar’s demand for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has been growing steadily, and its market potential is huge. Yunnan is adjacent to Myanmar, and its location advantage is obvious. In response to China’s “one belt and one road” initiative to meet the needs of Burma’s market and play a synergistic and effective capability, Yunnan’s state affairs actively explore the international market and seek new breakthroughs.

Compared with gasoline and diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has the characteristics of flammability and explosion, and has higher requirements for the transportation and qualification of dangerous chemicals. With the cooperation of Yunnan Petrochemical Corporation, Yunnan has overcome the difficulties of shortage of dangerous chemicals transportation vehicles and lack of experience in dangerous chemicals transportation at border ports, and coordinated with relevant departments to establish temporary inspection sites to help transport vehicles smoothly through customs.

The export of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is another important achievement of Yunnan State Council after successfully exporting steam, diesel and coal products to Southeast Asian markets in 2018. Up to now, Yunnan Petrochemical has exported more than 10,000 tons of refined oil monthly, and 14 export customs ports and channels, which has greatly broadened the energy procurement channels of Myanmar and Laos. Next, the State of Yunnan will gradually expand the export scale of liquefied petroleum gas and establish a stable channel for land exports in southwest China.

International oil prices, which have been rising all the way recently, slowed down in the first week of May as U.S. crude oil inventories and production both hit new highs.

At the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $0.13 to $61.94 a barrel, or 0.21 per cent. London Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose $0.10, or 0.14%, to close at $70.85 a barrel.

U.S. crude oil production recently hit a record high of 12.3 million barrels a day. In recent months, U.S. crude oil production has remained stable, but still 2 million barrels a day more than last year.

Inventories, according to the U.S. Energy Agency report, as of April 26, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 9.934 million barrels, pushing U.S. commercial crude oil inventories to their highest level since September 2017. Statistics also show that U.S. crude oil stocks have increased in five of the past six weeks.

Eric Norland, senior economist at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, is reported to have said that the shale oil revolution in the United States has led to a 1.3-fold increase in the country’s crude oil production over the past 10 years, exerting tremendous and sustained downward pressure on oil prices and showing itself in trading positions.

In addition, data released by Russia showed that crude oil production in April was 11.233 million barrels a day, an increase of 2.4% over the previous year and a 0.6% decrease over the previous year.

The news of abundant crude oil supply led to a sharp dive in international oil prices on the 2nd, but the US economic data improved, boosting confidence in the crude oil market and pushing international oil prices back up every other day. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in April, the lowest level in more than 49 years, and 263,000 new jobs were created in the non-agricultural sector that month, up from 190,000 expected by the market, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday.

Basically, other positive factors also support oil prices. According to data released by American oil service company Baker Hughes on May 3, the number of active drilling wells in the United States decreased by 11 in April, 37 in March, 9 in February and 23 in January, compared with 2 in December last year. Baker Hughes also said in his report that the number of active natural gas drillings in the United States fell by three to 183 this week.

At the same time, some sources said that Russian oil producers had received notification from Transneft, a pipeline monopoly, to cut production by 900,000 tons by May 7, because Russian crude oil was seriously disrupted by organic chloride pollution.

After oil, the United States is considering imposing sanctions on other dollar sources in Iran and will focus on more companies and financial institutions engaged in commercial activities with Iran to cut off Iran’s access to the dollar, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The move will crack down on export sales of Iranian petrochemical products and other commodities. Iran’s oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, said today that Tehran would not remain silent if other OPEC members threatened Iran’s interests.

The dissolution of OPEC is possible. In April, the White House issued a public statement demanding that all Iranian oil buyers must stop importing by May 1 or face sanctions.

The White House aims to cut off the lifeline of Iran’s annual oil revenue of $50 billion to pressure Tehran to limit its nuclear and ballistic missile tests and stop its support for the Assad government in Syria and the Houthi forces in Yemen. And that has sparked resentment in Iran. Iran’s oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, told members of Congress that the Trump Administration’s sanctions waiver plan would never be met: “It is impossible for the United States to expect to cut off Iran’s oil exports. We will do our best to break the United States sanctions.

He pointed out that the current international crude oil market is still relatively fragile, the market can not predict, can not be sure that other oil-producing countries will produce enough crude oil to meet demand, some states boast that idle reserves are higher than the actual level. Iran’s semi-official media Tasnim (Tasnim) news agency reported that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Naval commander Alireza Tangsiri said that if Iran can not use Hormuz, Str. Of, then it will be shut down.

The US attempt to keep Iran’s oil exports down to 0 will fail. The International Monetary Fund has previously warned that Iran’s recession is expected to deepen as a result of US economic sanctions, which is expected to shrink by 6% per cent this year, shrinking for the second year in a row, with inflation likely to soar to more than 40%, the highest level since 1980, the third largest in the world,

Only better than Venezuela and Zimbabwe. In addition, the EIA Weekly, released in Wednesday, showed a high innovation in U.S. crude oil production in the week of April 26, adding 100,000 barrels to 12.3 million barrels per day. The week’s EIA crude oil stock increased by 9.934 million barrels, the highest increase in the week of November 16 last year (24 weeks), pushing the United States last week crude oil stocks rose to the highest since September 2017.

It was May and during the May Day holiday, the fertilizer market was not relaxed at all, but it was at the end of spring and the fertilizer market was relatively light. Let’s talk about the adjustment of ammonium chloride Market for small nitrogen fertilizer in May. At present, the domestic ammonium chloride multi-market factories have sufficient orders to be issued and some of them are in short supply. Therefore, if you want to get the goods, you still need to “wait” and the overall market price is running at a high level. For example, according to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the mainstream domestic dry ammonium factory quotation is about 650-800 yuan/ton, and some of the transactions can be negotiated, of course, the price outside the province is lower than this. However, there are exceptions to the above situation. The representative is the northeast, where demand is over, ammonium chloride is abundant, cargo is under pressure, and prices are falling. The price of mackerel circle before the festival has dropped to 780 yuan/ton, and the turnover is still slow, which is obviously different from the southern market.

In May, the local ammonium chloride market is slightly delicate. Although the spot market is still relatively tight, the price is now loose. Next, the price trend of ammonium chloride has become the focus of attention in the industry. The following points will be explained.

Firstly, it is difficult to reduce the high-level operation of joint alkali enterprises in the short term. The new capacity load of a large ammonium chloride plant in Henan has increased smoothly. Most of the large ammonium chloride plants in Jiangsu and Southwest China have been overloaded for a long time. Only half of the units in a large ammonium chloride plant in Hubei have been overhauled but will be restored soon. According to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the overall industry start-up rate of the joint alkali enterprises has risen to 82%. However, there are fewer ammonium chloride enterprises planned to be overhauled, only one plant in Jiangsu It is scheduled to be repaired for three days from May 10. In addition, two factories in Jiangsu and Chongqing are scheduled to stop inspection for about half a month at the end of the next ten days. However, even if parking is still available for export, it is obvious that ammonium chloride enterprises will maintain a high level at least in the first ten days of operation. And the soda market is considerable, some enterprises will still focus on production of soda, at the same time, the production of ammonium chloride will rise.

Secondly, the price of urea fluctuates slightly. From the point of view of supply and demand, the bearish trend of urea accounts for the majority. The transportation of liquid ammonia, which is closely related to urea production, is limited during May 1st. Under the double pressure of environmental protection and safety inspection, while liquid ammonia keeps low inventory, some enterprises will focus on urea production and increase urea shipments more or less. In the off-season of agricultural demand, most wholesale commodities in the market are priced or even partly stopped wholesale. Hefei enterprises have high sales pressure, low production enthusiasm, plywood plant and other needs are still supported, but after all, limited, so in the situation of high urea start-up and weak demand, the market is unlikely to improve, which will affect the purchasing volume of ammonium chloride for enterprises such as compound fertilizer.

Thirdly, the new demand for ammonium chloride has slowed down and the turnover has cooled down. First, during the gap period of spring and summer, ammonium chloride enterprises have sufficient orders to be issued, while more than 200,000 tons are less than 10,000 tons. That is to say, the raw material reserves of compound fertilizer plants and extruded granular ammonium chloride plants are sufficient, and the demand for filling orders will be very limited in the later period. Second, when the market demand in Northeast China is over, some ammonium chloride supplies in the southern market have to change their sales direction, while prices in Northeast China are declining. To a certain extent, it affects the trend of other regions; thirdly, the export volume is far from easing the pressure of domestic ammonium chloride shipment. According to customs data, the total export volume of ammonium chloride for fertilizer and non-fertilizer in March was 71.3 million tons, and the total export volume of ammonium chloride for non-fertilizer was 74.6 million tons, which increased compared with February. However, in the same period of previous years, the export volume in April should not change greatly or decrease. The domestic market is likely to increase in the amount of digestion awaited.

Finally, in a comprehensive view, the short-term sufficient standby still makes the spot market tight, and the firm’s confidence in the bid price is relatively sufficient. Therefore, it is expected that the ammonium chloride market will continue to run at a high level in May. If there are small orders in some parts, the price will probably increase slightly for the settlement of the factory. However, from the perspective of the high start-up and the light of new orders and the limited replenishment orders, it is expected that May will be the month. While the price of ammonium chloride is firm, local transactions should be loosened.

According to the data released recently by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 2.7% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, of which the energy consumption per unit of added value of industrial units above the scale dropped by 3.4%.

Liu Wenhua, Director of the Energy Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in the first quarter of this year, China’s energy supply and demand continued to grow steadily as a whole and its structure was constantly optimized.

According to the preliminary calculation of the National Bureau of Statistics, the total energy consumption in the first quarter increased by 3.5% year on year. Among them, the proportion of clean energy consumption, such as natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power and wind power, in total energy consumption increased by 1.5 percentage points over the same period last year, while the proportion of coal consumption decreased by 1.8 percentage points.