Methanol, the decline is difficult to change

With the end of the domestic spring inspection, the increase in supply is inevitable, while imports will also pick up, the port inventory will continue to increase.

In the case of increased supply and difficult to increase demand, methanol weak market will continue. With the end of the domestic spring inspection, the increase of production equipment, the subsequent supply of methanol will continue to increase, at the same time, foreign devices are also facing the completion of maintenance after the restart situation, the import volume will gradually increase. From the demand side, MTO downstream product prices are falling, the enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase methanol is low, MTO demand is difficult to increase, traditional demand changes little.

As a result, the low price of methanol is inevitable.

Spring inspection is coming to an end Into April, methanol spring maintenance launched, the start rate decreased significantly, but with the increase in subsequent production devices, the start rate will gradually pick up. According to Jin Lianchuang statistics, April 25, the national methanol construction rate of 63.58%, a rise of 0.93%, which is the first recovery after four consecutive weeks of decline, of which the Northwest Territories start rate of 74%, a rise of 5%, mainly in the early April maintenance of the device has been re-production, such as Jutai, Huating, Jintai Thai 51 pre-production, And the new Austrian two, rongxin maintenance device is also in the restart, it is expected that the opening rate of northwest China will continue to rise after the festival.

May, although there are still some pre-delayed maintenance of the device into the overhaul, but the completion of the pre-maintenance after the restart of more devices, the start rate will show a gradual upward trend, the domestic supply pressure is increasing.

Expected increase in imports The maintenance of foreign installations is also coming to an end, and imports will pick up again in May. According to the General Administration of customs, 2019 years ago two months of methanol imports in 1.616 million tons, 3 April forecast will fall to about 650,000 tons, and May will again recover to more than 700,000 tons. Methanol prices fell sharply in the four quarter of last year, leading to the early entry of international installations in February-March, such as Iran ZPC330 million tons of equipment completed in March, the current operation is smooth, Iran Marjan175 tons of methanol plant in March after parking to complete the restart in early April ; The Malaysian oil company’s 2.36 million-ton device was restarted at the end of March and is now functioning well; the Venezuelan Metor255 million-ton device was also restarted before 51 knots. In terms of arrival, the number of arrivals in early April began to increase significantly in mid-April, Taicang, Changzhou, Zhangjiagang and other places in May can be tense, according to the current arrival volume calculation, port inventory will rise again.

As a result, imports will increase significantly in May, with increased supply-side pressure.

Port MTO Profit is low Port olefin prices fell sharply at the end of 2018, leading to MTO profits have been low and demand for methanol has been difficult to increase. Crude oil prices fell sharply in the four quarter of last year, and downstream crude oil products were not spared, and the port MTO combined profit was at a low level. In the case of ethylene glycol, a vinyl product, the supply and demand side deteriorated with the production capacity, and the price of ethylene glycol fell by nearly 40% from 7500 yuan/ton in early October 2018 to the end of April 2019. Acrylic end product PP price fell less, but also 20%. Taken together, the port MTO profit is at a low level in the past five years, which will affect the progress of the production of 1.8 million tons of new devices in Nanjing Zhicheng two. In addition, the MTO plant is expected to resume in early May, Qinghai Salt Lake Olefin device in mid-April to stop again, restart to be determined.

For now, MTO demand is difficult to increase. On the traditional demand side, it is also difficult to have a big upturn.

Formaldehyde construction rate of 28.25%, the weekly decline of 1.6%, acetic acid start rate of 80.71%, the weekly increase of 10.72%, other changes are small. To sum up, with the end of domestic spring inspection, supply increase is inevitable, while imports will also pick up, port inventory will continue to increase. From the demand side, MTO profit has been maintained at a low level since this year, which not only affects the production of new devices, but also affects the subsequent procurement volume of methanol, while traditional demand is affected by environmental protection is also difficult to increase. In the case of increased supply and difficult to increase demand, methanol weak market will continue.