The Tariff and Tax Commission of the State Council decided to raise tariff rates on some imports originating in the United States from 10:00 on June 1, 2019. The tax rate shall be implemented in accordance with the Notice of the State Council Tariff and Tax Commission on the imposition of tariffs on some imported goods (the second batch) originating in the United States (the Notice of the Tax Commission [2018] No. 6).

Propylene, propane and other products were not found in the list. After consulting the relevant information, it was found that on August 3, 2018, China imposed tariffs on 5207 imports originating in the United States, involving about 60 billion US dollars in import trade.

Tariffs imposed on propylene and other products are included in the list of tariffs imposed since 12:01 on August 23, 2018, involving about 16 billion US dollars in import trade.

Judging from the current situation, it does not rule out the possibility that China will continue to impose tariffs on American imports. The follow-up commodities are likely to be the first to impose tariffs in 2018, involving about $50 billion in import trade. Among them, propylene, propane and other products are among them. However, for propylene, the direct impact is relatively limited.

From the source of China’s propylene imports in 2018, propylene from Korea accounted for 51% of the total imports, while propylene from Japan and Taiwan accounted for 20% and 19% respectively. The remaining propylene mainly came from Southeast Asia. Propylene imports from the United States are only 29.6 tons, almost negligible. Therefore, even if China imposes tariffs on propylene from the United States, the direct impact is negligible.

However, some upstream and downstream products of propylene may be affected by tariffs, such as propane, polypropylene, acrylonitrile, propylene oxide, acrylic acid and so on. Especially propane, the total import volume is large, and the proportion of imports from the United States is larger, the impact is also expected to be greater.

In recent years, propane dehydrogenation to propylene has developed rapidly in China, and the raw material propyl alkyl is basically dependent on imports. Once the tariff is imposed on propane, the cost of propane dehydrogenation will increase dramatically. At present, the profit margin of propane dehydrogenation is extremely limited. Once the cost rises, the loss will become an inevitable result. Therefore, the impact of tariffs on propylene-related products needs close attention.

Border trade import is an important part of China’s potash fertilizer trade. Recently, it has been reported that both shipping and import of potash fertilizer have entered a period of suspension of negotiations. The potash trade will enter a standby period in June. How much will this affect the price of potash fertilizer in China?

Potassium Fertilizer in Ural Suffered Permeability Accident

Recently, the world’s largest potash manufacturer Ural Potassium Fertilizer’s Solikamsk No. 2 mine has suffered a flooding accident, and the losses are still not assessable. “Ural Potassium Fertilizer Permeability Accident has a greater impact on the international price of potash fertilizer.” Industry insiders in an interview with reporters said that the flooding accident is fatal to the solid potash fertilizer mining area.

Data show that Ural Potassium Fertilizer Company is one of the world’s major potassium fertilizer producers, the company’s potassium fertilizer output accounts for about 20% of the global potassium fertilizer output. The No. 3 mine of Ural Potassium Fertilizer was closed permanently in 1973 because of the flooding accident, and the No. 1 mine was closed permanently in 2006, which also promoted the bull market of potash fertilizer after 2006 to a certain extent.

Industry insiders told reporters that every year China will sign large contracts with Russia, Canada and other potassium-rich countries to transport potassium chloride by sea, and it is the agreed price of the big contract that has the greatest impact on the domestic potassium fertilizer price. The flooding accident will certainly have an impact on next year’s big contract price, and the domestic potash fertilizer price will also be affected accordingly.

It is understood that the supply of potassium fertilizer in China mainly consists of import and domestic components. With the continuous improvement of domestic potassium production capacity, the proportion of imported potassium fertilizer has decreased from 70% to 45%, but imported potassium fertilizer is still an indispensable part of domestic potassium fertilizer supply.

However, professionals believe that the increase in potassium fertilizer prices is still difficult to predict. Specifically, domestic potassium fertilizer prices also depend on market turnover and industry demand.

Border Trade Potassium Fertilizer Import Stagnation

According to reliable sources, China’s border potash fertilizer trade has maintained and continued the spot trading mode of border trade due to the geographical relationship between China and Russia. Especially based on long-term cooperative relationship, the two sides will start the process in mid-May to negotiate the price and quantity of the next month. However, Ural Potassium Fertilizer Co., Ltd. has recently continued to raise its quotation for potash fertilizer in China’s border trade on the basis of May’s price, and is resolute in its attitude. On the contrary, the price trend of potash fertilizer ports in domestic frontier trade broke down more than 150 yuan in late April.

Industry insiders believe that, in view of Ural’s attitude towards reducing potassium fertilizer and maintaining its price, as well as the actual market demand and price of land-borne potassium fertilizer, it is expected that in the short term it will be difficult for both sides to reach a consensus, and that there will be a shortage of potassium fertilizer in border trade from mid-June. Border trade imports will also enter the period of suspension of negotiations historically. This is the first time in the history of importing potash fertilizer from border trade.

It is understood that border trade import is an important part of China’s potash fertilizer trade. It has been accepted by domestic users because of its short cycle and rapid price response. In fact, from some data, it also reflects its active degree in the potash fertilizer market. Since 2005, the import of potassium fertilizer in frontier trade, with Manzhouli as the main port, has gradually become an important supplement to the import of potassium fertilizer in large trade and another important force to guarantee domestic potassium fertilizer supply.

Sources say that the negotiations on the big trade contract, which started in September 2018 and expired in June 2019, have not accelerated due to the approaching, and substantive contacts have also been delayed. At the same time, the difference in expectations between the two sides has led to the suspension of negotiations after the delivery of some routes of goods. Throughout the market situation, domestic frontier trade stopped importing and the number of shipping basically ended. Negotiations on shipping are far away, foreign prices are demanding, and both imports of potash fertilizer have entered a suspension period.

How will the price of potash fertilizer go?

Because of the suspension of negotiations on both shipping and import of potash fertilizer, uncertain negotiation results have kept the price of potash fertilizer stable for the time being. In terms of domestic potassium fertilizer, the production plant of Qinghai Salt Lake Group operates normally, and the implementation price of 60% of the base product of salt lake is 2350 yuan/ton. Customer prices remained stable in all regions. At present, the inventory of powdery, granular and cold crystallization platforms is 28,000 tons, and that of warehouses is 317,000 tons. The total amount of packaged goods that can be sold and shipped is 345,000 tons. Tibetan potassium fertilizer 60% powder price of 2350 yuan/ton, enterprise inventory of about 110,000 tons. The local small factory rate is low, the transaction is relatively cold.

In terms of imported potassium, there are many ports in stock at present. The data show that the port stock of imported potassium is about 2.6 million tons. At present, port potassium imports have begun to fluctuate in a narrow range. Although the quotation of traders is stable, the transaction of new orders is relatively slow, and the real unit price has fallen slightly. The mainstream price of 62% white potassium in Northeast China is around 2350-2380 yuan/ton, and the transaction reference is around 2350 yuan/ton. Russian pink prices range from 2150 to 2200 yuan per ton. There are fewer new potassium fertilizer frontier trade goods in the near future, and the previous quotation is higher. At present, the reference price of 62% Russian-White ports is 2050-2080 yuan/ton, which is 100 yuan/ton lower than that of last month.

In terms of demand for potassium fertilizer, the demand for potassium fertilizer continues to decline after entering the summer market. At present, there is no news of any big contract, but the port potassium fertilizer inventory is much higher than the same period in previous years. After the demand for potassium fertilizer enters the off-season, the raw material purchasing of compound fertilizer manufacturers is limited, and the supply and demand are often one-sided. Industry insiders said that the short-term contradiction between supply and demand of potash fertilizer has been significantly improved, and market prices are now temporarily stable.

First, the price data:

According to the business community’s large list of monitoring data, this week, the domestic bromine market stable operation, the industry as a whole started normal, the average price of bromine in the week remained at about 35000 yuan/ton, up 26.74% from the same period last year.

Ii. Analysis of Causes Products: This week, the domestic bromine market began to maintain a high, enterprise shipments smooth, downstream market in the peak season, the industry’s overall supply and demand two prosperous. In part of the start of enterprises, Rudong Yue Fine chemical Nissan about 5 tons, Shandong Sea Nissan 15 tons or so, Shandong Hai Wang chemical Nissan 20 tons or so, Tianjin haijing Nissan 15 tons or so.

At present, the mainstream quotation of enterprises in 35000 yuan/ton, the actual transaction price to the enterprise negotiations prevail. Industrial chain: This week, the bromine upstream industry is a decline: sulfur market fell 2.05% in the week, the current offer of 956 yuan/ton, caustic soda market in the week slightly soft 1.4%, the current price of 705 yuan/ton or so; Soda Market Week held steady operation, the current price of 1960 yuan/ton around The price of sulfuric acid fell sharply by 8.79% in the week, and is currently quoted at around 207 yuan/ton.

At present, the bromine downstream flame retardant industry is in high season, the demand is better, the bromine price support is good, pharmaceutical agricultural intermediates and other industries performance is stable, buying just need.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business Society bromine industry analysts believe that the current domestic bromine market enterprises generally normal production, shipping smooth, downstream user demand is stable, the market presents a situation of two prosperity of supply and demand, is currently in abundance of bromine supply, but bromine prices are still high, it is expected that the future period of bromine prices will be stable operation, long-term view will have some downward space.

In recent days, U Khaing Myint, secretary of the Burmese Association of Rubber Growers and producers (MRPPA), said the country’s rubber production had grown rapidly this year, with exports expected to reach 300,000 tonnes, surpassing the government’s previous estimate of 260,000 tonnes. Mr Myint said the area of rubber plantations in Myanmar had been steadily increasing and would reach the maximum output in the coming years. Some 800,000 acres of land are currently active in the production of glue in Myanmar, which led to a 56% increase in rubber exports in 2017.

However, only 8% of locally produced rubber is used for domestic consumption, while the remaining rubber is used for export, of which 70% is exported to China.

Currently, Thailand remains the world’s largest producer of rubber, with an annual output of about 4.6 million tonnes, followed by Indonesia (annual output of 2.4 million tons) and Malaysia (annual output of 2.2 million tons). Myint said that international rubber demand is now rising, the government wants to promote Myanmar as a major exporter of rubber, its export strategy is to actively promote the export of rubber and rubber products, thereby boosting total exports and narrowing the trade deficit. The country is planning to establish a central market for trade in rubber at the seaport Centre in Mawlamyiang, southern.

May 23, the rare earth index was 381 points, up 17 points from yesterday, down 61.9% from 1000 at the highest point in the cycle (2011-12-06), up 271 from its lowest point of 40.59% on September 13, 2015.

(Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date). The average price of metal neodymium in rare earth metals increased by 52500 yuan/ton to 440,000 yuan/ton, the average price of dysprosium metal was 2.275 million yuan/ton, and the average price of metal praseodymium was 690,000 yuan/ton. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides increased by 30000 yuan/ton to 335,000 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide prices increased by 30,000 yuan/ton to 1.955 million yuan/ton; the average of oxidized praseodymium was 355,000 yuan/ton; and the average price of neodymium oxide increased by 30000 yuan/ton to 330,000 yuan/ton.

The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy increased by 55000 yuan/ton to 450,000 yuan/ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 30,000 yuan/ton to 1.955 million yuan/ton. Recent Rare earth field prices rose sharply, domestic rare earth market trading market improved, rare earth market most commodity prices higher, heavy rare earth dysprosium terbium varieties affected by Myanmar Mine import restrictions, market participants on the price of medium-heavy rare earths, holding merchants reluctant, dysprosium terbium prices rose sharply, coupled with Praseodymium Neodymium series of products market trend in general, The supply of the field is normal, rare earth prices in the recent trend of rise. Rare Earth market price shock is related to environmental inspectors nationwide, rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation harm to make environmental protection supervision become more stringent. In the environmental protection of strict inspection, a number of provinces rare earth separation enterprises have been discontinued, resulting in the general rare earth oxide market delivery, the recent rare earth market to the seller’s markets, manufacturers reasonable control of sales, reluctant sentiment is strong. In particular, some mainstream rare earth oxides, supply performance tension, rare earth market price trend rise, the recent field of large enterprise groups have reluctant sentiment, rare earth market improve, but the price of products are also carefully watched by manufacturers.

The recent decline in rare earth imports, domestic enterprises reluctant, the rare earth market part of the price rose sharply. Recently, the state Environmental Protection Department strict investigation efforts, the impact on the rare earth industry is greater, rare earth industry started low, the market is cold.

Prior to this, Anhui Province jointly issued a special action document on rare Earth black, because the regulatory effect is becoming increasingly apparent, rare earth industry upstream raw ore resources supply shrinkage, rare earth industry trading market to go well. Business Society Rare Earth analysts expect the recent domestic environmental protection is not reduced, coupled with the domestic order of the rare earth industry rectification, Myanmar to restrict exports, supply reduction, the rare earth industry has a certain positive support, rare Earth products are expected to rise expectations.

Adani, India’s largest power coal importer, recently predicted a pick-up in India’s power coal imports in 2019 and could maintain strong growth momentum over the next 10 years as Adani in India’s domestic coal is in short supply, Bloomberg reported. Vinay Prakash, chief executive of Adani Coal and mining, said in an interview that India’s coal imports in the new fiscal year are expected to reach 184 million tonnes, up 11% per cent from April 1 this year, while annual imports of overseas coal are expected to rise to 200 million tonnes over the next 10 years.

He said consumers in India’s coastal areas would also prefer imported coal because of higher domestic coal transport costs.

Meanwhile, Vinay Prakash points out that the group plans to build 1600 megawatts of coal-fired power plants in the eastern state of Chalkhand, which will be a major destination for Adani’s coal production in the Galilee Basin, Australia. In fact, in order to reduce the external dependence of coal, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi previously asked state-owned mining companies Coal India to increase domestic coal production, India’s imports of coal has declined for years.

However, demand for coal in India has recently picked up, and imports of coal have begun to rebound amid insufficient domestic coal production and limited capacity in India. According to Bloomberg, India has long relied heavily on coal-fired power generation, and although other markets around the world have gradually shifted to renewable energy, India’s coal demand will bring a lifeline to global coal exporters.

International oil prices fell sharply 22nd, among other factors, including continued significant gains in U.S. crude inventories last week.

New York’s light crude oil futures price hit its biggest one-day drop in nearly three weeks. By the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures delivered by the New York Mercantile Exchange in July fell by $1.71 to 2.71%, closing at $61.42 per barrel, the lowest closing price since May 13.

The price of Brent crude oil futures in London, which was delivered in July, fell 1.19 dollars, closing at $70.99 per barrel, or 1.65%. U.S. commercial crude inventories rose significantly for the second week in a row last week, up 4.7 million barrels to 476.8 million barrels, 4% higher than the nearly 5-year average, according to data released 22nd by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. By contrast, analysts had previously expected an average reduction of 2 million barrels of crude oil inventories for the week, according to a Standard & amp; Poor’s global Platts survey. Last week, U.S. gasoline inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels a month, distilled oil increased by 800,000 barrels, and propane and propylene inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels.

Including commercial crude oil, refined oil, propane and propylene, U.S. commercial oil inventories rose sharply by 16.8 million barrels a year last week, up from 14.6 million barrels a week earlier. The data showed that last week the United States imported 6.9 million barrels of crude oil, a year-on-quarter decline of 669,000 barrels, refinery daily crude oil processing volume of 16.6 million barrels, a reduction of 98,000 barrels, the refinery start rate of 89.9%, lower than the previous week 90.5%.

Last week’s average U.S. crude oil production remained high at 12.2 million barrels, up from 12.1 million barrels in the previous week. Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Brinkley Data, said: “Despite the sharp drop in crude oil imports, the number of crude oil refineries in the United States is below the annual average, prompting crude oil inventories to grow for the second week in a row. U.S. crude inventories have increased by more than 37 million barrels over the past nine weeks, an increase of as much as 8.5%. Smith added: “Domestic crude oil production in the United States has increased again, while the United States has once again released strategic reserve crude oil, this time released 1.2 million barrels.” All of these factors have driven the rise in U.S. crude oil inventories.

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Ole Hansen, head of global commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Denmark, said renewed tensions in the Middle East and a possible OPEC deal to cut production could not lead to a breakthrough in international oil prices, owing to growing concerns about trade tensions affecting global economic growth and the continued strength of the dollar. Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Oil brokerage, said changes in U.S.-Iran relations and the global trade situation could cause international oil prices to fluctuate by about $10 trillion amid a fragile balance in the oil market. Phil Flynn22, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, said the recent rise in crude oil inventories would be a thing of the past because of tight supply and demand for oil products and the refinery’s need to increase processing volumes sooner or later.

Oil prices in Asia 20th jumped after OPEC+ Member States expressed interest in continuing to cut production this year, according to the Oil and Gas yearbook in London on May 20. U.S. WTI crude futures rose 1.3% to $63.75 trillion/barrel as of 12:20 Eastern time (04:20 GMT).

International Brent crude oil futures rose 1.4% per cent to $73.20 trillion/barrel.

19th (Khalid Al Falih), Saudi energy minister, has said OPEC members have reached a “moderate” consensus to push down crude oil inventories, but the Saudis will still respond to demand for “fragile markets.”

It comes after OPEC decided to cut oil supplies by 1.2 million barrels a day for the first six months of 2019, leading to a 40% per cent rise in oil prices so far this year. At a news conference after OPEC and other producers met, Mr Falih said “the second half priority is to maintain production management and allow inventories to dwindle gradually, but certainly to decline towards normal levels.”

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Meanwhile, Mazuru, energy Secretary of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), told reporters that maintaining a production reduction strategy was not the “right decision.” In the end, OPEC will make a formal decision on production cuts on June 25.

Weak demand for strong supply The first listed EG1906 contract continued to weaken after the listing of ethylene glycol futures in December last year, and has recorded a decline of more than 30% per cent so far.

Despite a strong rebound in crude oil in the first quarter, cost-end support did not dampen the deep fall in ethylene glycol, affected by oversupply and port storage.

Reduced upstream support strength Recently, the United States announced an end to Iran’s oil sanctions exemption, geopolitical risks again. Global oil demand is now higher than expected at the start of the year, and OPEC is considering reducing its production cuts. And as the northern hemisphere grows into summer travel peaks, rising gasoline consumption usually raises oil prices. Even if the OPEC meeting is postponed until July, uncertainty remains that oil-producing countries will continue to meet the deal to cut production. The peak period of oil prices is expected to end in mid-August, when crude oil support downstream will also fall back.

Since ethylene glycol is in a capacity expansion cycle this year, the upstream cost end support will be difficult to counter the huge capacity of ethylene glycol.

Supply glut pattern difficult to change As at May 20, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol installations in China was 71.01%. Among them, coal ethylene glycol start load 55.97%. This year, the ethylene glycol market will continue the supply glut pattern. At present, the cash flow of each ethylene glycol production route has been lost. Since April, the domestic ethylene glycol plant has gradually launched a maintenance plan.

After the installation of the postpartum, the supply pressure will be revealed again. Based on the “Coal rich poor oil” energy structure, support for the development of coal chemical industry has been included in the “Thirteen-Five” strategic plan. This shows that in the future our country will no longer rely excessively on oil imports. 1.69 million tons of coal ethylene glycol units will be planned for production in 2019. Compared with ethylene process, the cost advantage of coal ethylene glycol is obvious. Although the domestic polyester market is facing saturation, but in order to compete for incremental demand, under the profit loss, the coal ethylene glycol process still chooses to continue production.

Overcapacity in the ethylene glycol market is expected to remain in place for 1-2 years.

Reduced downstream demand increments Trade frictions between China and the United States intensified in March 2018. At the mercy of panic, the weaving plant’s massive front purchase overdrawn the late demand.

Recently, Sino-US trade disputes have escalated further, or led to a weaker overall export of the polyester market. At present, polyester construction rate of 87.57%, loom start rate of 76%. In the traditional peak season near the end, polyester continuous high start background, terminal weaving order capacity is limited, late production and marketing is not good. Gold three silver four “grab orders” after the downstream consumption will be diluted. Due to inventory occupation of funds, the late polyester market will face the double pressure of inventory and cash flow. After May, weaving gradually into the low season, demand is afraid of a breakthrough.

And the high fall of polyester start load will directly weaken the demand for upstream ethylene glycol.

High inventories will continue As at May 16, the main port in east China was stocked by 1.2082 million tons, a decrease of 2800 tons compared with the beginning of May. Recently, domestic factories began to take the initiative to reduce negative, more equipment maintenance. The supply pressure has been eased by the impact of the 51 front and downstream replenishment banks.

However, after the market import cargo to the port volume is still stable, so the two quarter ethylene glycol port inventory will be difficult to fall sharply. Port Reservoir drive mainly comes from imported oil ethylene glycol. Since December last year, the biggest increase in ethylene glycol inventories has exceeded 90%. Aftermarket port inventory will become the focus of oil and coal production route game. Generally after winter, the northern coal head device may encounter environmental protection production restrictions, which will result in a shortage of coal supply, East China polyester factory or the nearest choice of ethylene supply. In this way, there will be a marked decline in port inventories.

However, the overhaul production restrictions is usually staged, after the overhaul of the coal products back to a comeback, then the port will also return to the reservoir cycle. Taken together, reduced marginal demand exacerbates supply-side pressure, resulting in a passive increase in ethylene glycol inventories. At the same time, due to the EG1906 contract near the delivery period, part of the oil ethylene glycol delivery out of the warehouse, the port inventory pressure will be eased. However, with the end of domestic and foreign equipment maintenance, import sources and coal products gradually restored supply. In the third quarter, ethylene glycol threatened to face the adverse situation of strong demand and weak, and it will be inevitable to explore the bottom under the price.

International oil prices continued their gains 21st, influenced by rising geopolitical risks.

The prices of light crude oil futures delivered by the New York Mercantile Exchange in June rose by $0.31 trillion to $63.41 per barrel; London Brent crude oil futures, delivered in July, rose 0.23 dollars and closed at $72.2 per barrel, all at a high since late April.

Analysts say the energy market supply side will continue to tighten if security risks persist in the Middle East. In recent times, U.S.-Iran relations have continued to be tense. Earlier this month, the United States announced that it would no longer grant sanctions exemptions to imports of Iranian oil from some countries and regions to ban Iranian oil exports across the country, and then announced sanctions against Iran’s steel, aluminium and copper industries. In addition, the United States announced the deployment to the Middle East of the “Abraham Lincoln” carrier Battle Group, B-52 strategic bombers and dockyard transport ships to deal with the “Iranian threat.”

Iran’s crude oil exports reportedly fell to 500,000 barrels a day in May. In response, Iran threatened to close Hormuz, Str. Of.

Hormuz, Str. Of is the only way for crude oil exports from Middle Eastern oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, and about one-third of the world’s seaborne oil trade depends on it. OPEC’s attitude to extending production cuts also supports oil price expectations.

OPEC said the implementation rate of the agreement on production cuts between OPEC and partner countries in April was as high as 168%, and the implementation rate of the agreement to cut production in January-April was 120% this year.

According to data provided by OPEC, oil inventories in developed economies rose 3.3 million barrels a year in March, and oil stocks levels were 22.8 million barrels higher than the average of nearly five years.

Saudi Energy Secretary Falih said 19th that OPEC’s consensus with non-OPEC partners is to reduce crude oil inventories, but will still respond to fragile market supply and demand.

The market believes OPEC still tends to maintain production cuts in the second half of the year, with international oil prices supported to some extent.

The outlook for oil consumption is worsening as downside risks increase in the global economy and growth prospects in a number of major emerging markets, including Brazil, India and Turkey, are in doubt.

The MSCI Ming Sheng Emerging Markets index is down 9% from a year earlier and, while down from a 17% drop at the end of December, remains the worst performance since the commodities plummeted from 2015 to 2016. Brazil lowered its economic growth forecast, and the country’s economy may have shrunk in the first quarter. Argentina’s inflation rate is accelerating, and the International Monetary Fund expects its economy to shrink this year.

India’s economy is also losing momentum. Market participants expect oil consumption growth to slow this year against a backdrop of slowing global economic growth, with oil prices lacking momentum to rise.