Styrene (EB) futures landed in Dalian Commodity Exchange on September 26. The benchmark price for listing was 8000 yuan / ton. Before the National Day holiday, the price of styrene futures had gone up more than 8000 yuan / ton, and then began to fall sharply.

 

As for the sharp drop of styrene price since the listing, we think there are three main reasons: first, under the expectation of new production capacity, the long-term is pessimistic, and the era of high profit of styrene will end. Second, styrene port inventory is expected. Third, the price of raw materials ethylene and pure benzene has declined, which gives styrene a room to decline.

 

For the future operation, in the case that the crude oil price does not rise sharply, based on the styrene production capacity input and the port accumulation expectation, we believe that the styrene price is easy to fall and hard to rise, with more single risks. In the later stage, the bottom of styrene or its cost line, it is recommended to rebound and short in operation.

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

I. The futures price keeps falling

 

The benchmark price of styrene listed on the market is 8000 yuan / ton. Since the listing, the highest price of styrene has risen to 8160 yuan / ton, and the lowest price is 7409 yuan / ton, with a price difference of 751. From the perspective of position, as new varieties become more and more active, under the short position increase, styrene price center of gravity is constantly moving down.

 

II. 2020 – the year of styrene production capacity

 

In 2020, the supply and demand pressure of styrene will be prominent, and the price will be under pressure in the medium and long term. According to our statistics on the new capacity input in the downstream of styrene and the estimated consumption of styrene, the demand for styrene is relatively insufficient. It is expected that styrene will gradually bear pressure with the input of styrene capacity.

 

By the end of 2020, it is expected that China’s downstream production capacity of 3.52 million tons will be released, corresponding to the consumption of styrene of 2.8123 million tons. At the same time, 6.012 million tons of styrene capacity will be put into production, which is theoretically surplus. Although the excess capacity can replace some imports, it means that the competition between domestic and foreign sources of goods will be more intense, and the price of styrene is still under pressure.

 

Although styrene has a huge production capacity delivery plan, we need to be alert to the low price, and styrene production capacity delivery is not as expected. For the current main contract eb2005, the production of the styrene unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli is relatively certain, because the two units are both private large refining projects.

 

III. high profit era of styrene is coming to an end

 

Long term pessimistic, styrene production profits continue to be compressed. According to our calculation, since 2017, the maximum profit of styrene production is 4911 yuan / ton, and the minimum is – 612 yuan / ton. At present, the main contract of styrene is eb2005. Based on the expectation that the long-term styrene capacity will enter into excess, the market is pessimistic, the spot price is obviously affected by the futures price, and the styrene production profit is constantly compressed. On the first day of listing, the styrene production profit was 1025 yuan / ton. As of October 22, the styrene production profit was compressed to 412 yuan / ton.

 

Cost moves down, giving the market space to sell short. The upstream of styrene corresponds to pure benzene and ethylene. Generally speaking, it needs 0.79 tons of pure benzene and 0.29 tons of ethylene to produce 1 ton of styrene. Since the listing of styrene, the price of downstream ethylene and pure benzene has also weakened due to the impact of the sharp weakening of crude oil price. As of October 23, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 681 US dollars / ton, and the price of pure benzene was 5650 yuan / ton, down 170 US dollars / ton and 120 yuan / ton respectively compared with the first day of listing. The cost of a significant move down, but also give the futures market enough short space. We believe that unless extreme geopolitical events take place or OPEC further deepens production reduction, it will be difficult for international crude oil to rebound significantly under the weak demand and the expectation of accumulated reserves. Corresponding to the price of ethylene and pure benzene is also difficult to strengthen, short-term cost end is difficult to give styrene enough support.

 

IV. no obvious improvement in demand

 

EDTA

The demand is weak, and the downstream takes the goods carefully. EPS, ABS and PS account for 70% of the downstream demand of styrene. Recently, the price of styrene has been declining one after another, and the price of EPS, ABS and PS has also been declining one after another, which shows that the current terminal demand is not strong enough, and the price of styrene downstream is weak. At present, the downstream of styrene is more cautious in taking goods and strictly controlling inventory. The demand is mainly rigid demand. In addition, 48% of the demand for EPS terminals is in the board industry, so with the coming of winter, the demand will gradually weaken. Part of styrene supply in Northeast China will flow into East China.

 

V. under the expectation of accumulation, the rebound of styrene price is blocked

 

Styrene inventory is expected. Generally speaking, the normal inventory level of styrene in East China is 80000-150000 tons. As of October 23, the inventory of styrene in East China’s main port is 101100 tons. (among them, the ships scheduled to arrive at the port on October 23 haven’t been berthed yet, so they haven’t been put into storage. ）Although the current inventory level is within the normal range, according to the statistics in Table 3, 92600 tons of cargo will arrive at the port according to the plan in the next five days. Under the condition that there are a lot of goods arriving at the port, but the downstream digestion speed is limited, there is a strong stock accumulation expectation for styrene in the future market. Under the pressure of accumulation, although the current styrene price is low, the rebound is blocked.

 

Vi. summary and operation suggestions

To sum up, eb2005, the main contract of styrene, is facing the following pressure: first, medium and long-term capacity supply pressure. The production of 1.2 million T / a styrene unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and 720000 T / a styrene unit of Hengli Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is relatively certain, because the two units are both refining and chemical integration projects, and their production is more following the progress of large-scale refining and chemical industry. Second, the accumulated stock pressure at the end of the year. Based on the unremarkable demand and a large number of goods arriving at the port, styrene port has a strong stock accumulation expectation at present. The long storage time of styrene is easy to lead to the polymer content exceeding the standard, so the increase of port inventory will greatly reduce the price of styrene.

 

On the premise that crude oil price does not rise sharply, we don’t think there is any good news for styrene fundamentals at present. Subject to the above two pressures, styrene prices are prone to fall and difficult to rise, and it is recommended to rebound short in operation. As of October 23, the spot cost of styrene is 7253 yuan / ton. For the bottom price in the future, if there is a large accumulation of goods at the port, it is not ruled out that the price of styrene will be closer to the cost end.

 

Note: the spot cost of styrene is variable, so we need to pay more attention to the price of upstream crude oil, ethylene and pure benzene in the future.

EDTA 2Na

1. Preferential promotion of polyester filament, limited production and marketing promotion

 

2. The price of polyester staple fiber increases with narrow width, and the downstream demand is weak.

 

3. Polyester power on load remains high, but negative load reduction is expected to be strong.

 

4. Ethylene glycol is suppressed by the demand side and the supply side, the market trend continues to be weak, and the profit of each process ethylene glycol has declined to varying degrees. Basically, they are all below cost, which generally drags down market confidence and causes the downstream to take goods cautiously. The short-term MEG market is full of weak sentiment, but at present, the price has been in a relatively low position, the market has relatively limited space for a sharp decline, and the probability of low-level oscillation is relatively large.

 

Details:

 

I. Basic Analysis of polyester

 

1. Preferential promotion of polyester filament, limited production and marketing promotion

 

Polyester products are used to connect upstream raw materials and end consumption products. Polyester industry peak season “golden nine silver ten” is close to the end, peak season is not prosperous, polyester filament as the main downstream products, the terminal demand for its gradually weakened, downstream factories through many preferential promotions to improve production and marketing, but the overall trend is still weak operation.

 

2. The price of polyester staple fiber increases with narrow width, and the downstream demand is weak.

 

In the aspect of short fiber, due to the cost loss in the early stage, although the factory has been boosted by the macro news and the price has been increased by a narrow range, the downstream demand is weak and the terminal is weak, which leads to the factory’s inventory rising, the market mentality is poor and the consumer confidence is insufficient.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

3. Polyester power on load remains high, but negative load reduction is expected to be strong.

 

The start-up load of polyester is still at a high level. According to the operation rate of polyester plant, new production, plant maintenance and other plans, the estimated output in October is about 4.4 million tons. However, due to the weak performance of the downstream weaving and terminal clothing home textile industry, there is great uncertainty in the long-term high start-up of polyester plant under the condition of low production and sales and low profit. Therefore, under the expectation that polyester plant may reduce production actively in the fourth quarter, polyester production is expected to be lowered, further weakening the support of glycol demand end.

 

II. Basic analysis of glycol supply and demand

 

1. Under the expectation that the new unit will be put into operation, the favorable support for the decrease of the starting load of domestic glycol is limited.

 

From the perspective of domestic supply, in October, domestic glycol factories began to overhaul one after another. In recent years, the operating load of ethylene to glycol is around 56.07%, the operating rate of coal to glycol is around 58.61%, and the comprehensive operating rate of glycol is 58.15%, which is significantly lower than the previous period.

 

In the fourth quarter of 2019, it is expected that new devices in glycol market will be put into operation gradually. With the production time of the unit approaching, the glycol market is facing the turning point of stock removal and accumulation, and the pressure at the supply end is increasing. The supply reduction brought by the maintenance of the unit is difficult to form an effective good support.

 

2. The port inventory falls to a low level, and the arrival volume is very important.

 

In terms of port inventory, as of October 17, MEG port inventory in East China’s main port area decreased steadily, with 611000 tons of port inventory, down 28000 tons from the previous period. According to CCF statistics, it is estimated that the total arrival volume of MEG in East China next week will be around 198000 tons, which is neutral and stable.

 

Sodium Molybdate

In 2019, it is planned to put 5.65 million tons of ethylene glycol capacity into production at home and abroad. The target exporting countries of foreign devices are mainly concentrated in China, and the supply pressure is still large.

 

3. The decline of glycol profit, dragging down market confidence

 

The price of glycol is at a low level, and the domestic operation situation is relatively low. After the trend of short market consistency, the dynamic changes of glycol market price and profit have attracted much attention. At present, glycol gross profit has declined to varying degrees. Basically, they are all below cost, which is a drag on market confidence as a whole.

 

From the current situation of MEG supply and downstream demand, although the polyester factory’s intention of replenishment has declined, the level of port delivery has fallen, and the progress of port inventory de stocking has slowed down significantly; however, in October, it still showed a large amount of de stocking, mainly reflected in the polyester factory’s raw material inventory de stocking. In the fourth quarter of MEG, there will still be a large amount of inventory de stocking without considering the new devices. In addition, when the new unit is put into operation, in the fourth quarter of 2019, an additional 110000-220000 tons (50% – full load) will be added, and the balance of MEG supply and demand will be maintained at the level of – 60000-50000 tons in the fourth quarter, so the probability of MEG inventory not accumulating in the fourth quarter is relatively large.

 

Ethylene glycol is suppressed by the demand side and the supply side, and the market trend continues to be weak. The profit of each process ethylene glycol has declined to varying degrees. Basically, they are all below cost, which generally drags down market confidence and causes the downstream to take goods cautiously. The short-term MEG market is full of weak sentiment, but at present, the price has been in a relatively low position, the market has relatively limited space for a sharp decline, and the probability of low-level oscillation is relatively large.

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I. trend analysis

 

As shown in the figure above, today’s domestic copper price is down slightly, while copper price is down slightly. The quotation is 47036.67 yuan / ton, 0.32% lower than the previous day, 2.33% lower than the beginning of the year, and 3.55% lower than the previous year.

 

II. Market analysis

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

On the basic level, there is interference at the mine end, copper mine is still tight, smelter has no maintenance, TC is slightly increased, refined copper supply is abundant, downstream consumption, grid investment is still expected, and demand will be improved. After the National Day holiday, the domestic community storage of refined copper continued to accumulate, and the inventory in the bonded area was still declining. On the macro level, the global macro situation is not good, causing demand side concerns.

 

III. future prospects

 

According to the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of business cooperation think that copper price lacks direction in short-term operation, and the price mainly fluctuates.

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

Near the end of October, PVC market trend has not been changed, mainly slightly loose. Shandong Xinfa, Henan Lianchuang, Taishan salt chemical and other PVC enterprises maintained well without strong support. Affected by the continuous exploration of futures, prices in South China, East China, North China and other major sales regions have been reduced to varying degrees, but the range of price reduction is not large. The main purpose of the traders is to deliver goods, so as to facilitate the transaction. The downstream receiving is general, and the receiving is acceptable in some areas, most of which are transacted with small orders, and the low price accounts for more. As of October 22, the main stream of calcium carbide 5-type material in East China market is about 6550-6630 yuan / ton, and the main stream of ethylene material is about 7050-7350 yuan / ton; the main stream of calcium carbide 5-type material in North China market is about 6500-6680 yuan / ton, and the main stream of ethylene material is about 6920-7070 yuan / ton; the main stream of calcium carbide 5-type material in South China market is about 6640-6800 yuan / ton, and the main stream of ethylene material is about 7130-7300 yuan / ton. Then, what will happen to PVC? Let’s analyze:

Potassium monopersulfate

 

From the perspective of futures, as of October 22, Dalian pvc2001 contract opened in low volatility, opening 6320, high 6365, low 6315, closing 6320, down 5, down 0.08%. Trading volume was 119950, with positions reduced by 2838 to 324002. Technically, KDJ index is dead fork, MACD index green column is slightly shortened, and air force is still dominant. On the trend, the waterfall line is spread in a short position, and the brin passage is still in a weak area, so the trend is still weak. PVC futures are expected to maintain low volatility in the short term. Pay attention to 6400 line pressure at the top and 6250 line support at the bottom. In operation, it is recommended to operate in 6250-6400.

 

Favorable factors: the overall supply of some enterprises is relatively reduced due to maintenance; the social inventory continues to decline, and the inventory of some enterprises is relatively low, which is good to some extent; the price of raw calcium carbide remains stable after a small drop, and the cost still has some support.

 

EDTA

Negative factors: the mentality of the market merchants is short, and the transaction gives way to the profit; the downstream receiving basically maintains small orders, and the low price transaction is too much, some of them still remain wait-and-see attitude; the futures trend is still weak, which has certain pressure on the price.

 

On the whole, plastic rice city that the recent PVC market multi-dimensional consolidation trend, small loose still exist. In addition, in the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the influence of macro aspect, futures trend, national policy and downstream receiving.

EDTA 2Na

Since the middle of September, the price of polypropylene has fluctuated downward. On the one hand, it is affected by the crude oil price, and on the other hand, it is due to the flat demand performance. Looking forward to the future, the cost support from the crude oil end will weaken, and the supply pressure will gradually release, but the inventory will move down, the demand is difficult to have a bright spot, and the PP price may continue to be weak.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

Increasing supply pressure

 

Recently, new polypropylene units have been put into production intensively, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. Not only did Baofeng phase II start up smoothly, Dongguan juzhengyuan get through the whole process, but also Daqing Refining and chemical, Dushanzi petrochemical, Shenhua Xinjiang and other units that were overhauled in the early stage started up in succession. At present, the operating rate of polypropylene enterprises is about 97%, which is at a high level, and the supply materials will be abundant.

 

Spot price down

 

In terms of inventory, polypropylene inventory has declined since October 9, and as of October 18, it dropped to 403300 tons, reducing inventory pressure. On October 18, the factory price of petrochemical wire drawing grade was partially reduced, the price of petrochemical wire drawing in East China was reduced by 100 yuan / ton, and the price of PetroChina wire drawing in Northeast and Northwest China was reduced by 100 yuan / ton. With the spot price down, the basis is gradually repaired, and the period price is also under pressure.

 

Limited demand boost

 

As the domestic economy is under pressure, the overall consumption in the downstream is not performing well. Due to the limited orders and overstocked finished products, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is insufficient, and the wait-and-see mood is relatively strong, mainly on-demand procurement. The overall demand of this year is worse than that of previous years, and the operating rates of plastic knitting and BOPP are lower than that of the same period in the past three years.

 

Weak cost support

 

For the week ended October 18, the number of active US oil wells increased by one to 713, the first two-week increase since June. Iran’s oil minister zangane said the U.S. sanctions failed to curb the development of Iran’s oil industry or reduce investors’ concerns about geopolitical risks, thus to some extent driving down crude oil prices.

 

Sodium Molybdate

Technically speaking, the main contract pp2001 is lower than the 60 day average for three consecutive days, and it is under the pressure of the brin middle track. The opening of the brin channel has the potential to enlarge. MACD extends below the zero axis, which is slightly empty technically.

 

To sum up, with the introduction of new capacity and the resumption of production of early maintenance devices, the pressure on the supply side will gradually become prominent. However, the demand side is subject to the slowdown of economic growth, so it may not have bright spots as a whole. The support of cost side is weakening, and the price is under pressure. The risk factors lie in the continuous decline of inventory, and the aggravation of geopolitical risks driving up the overall price of chemicals.

 

Operation plan

 

1. Contract selection: select the main contract pp2001 with active transaction.

 

2. Build warehouse: build warehouse in batches. Pp2001 selects a machine to build 100 empty orders between 8050-8080 yuan / ton. The deposit occupied is about 800000 yuan and the capital occupied is about 8%.

 

3. Stop gain and stop loss: set the stop loss range as 8220-8270 yuan / ton with the middle track of brin as the reference; set the stop gain range as 7800-7830 yuan / ton with the low point in the early stage as the reference.

 

4. Risk control: in case of adverse market changes, strictly implement stop loss plan.

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I. price trend

 

 

According to the data monitored by the business association, on October 21, the market of domestic DMF was weak. As of October 21, the quotation range of domestic top-grade DMF enterprises was 5500-5700 yuan / ton, and the focus of field negotiation was low-end.

 

II. Market analysis

 

Products: as of October 21, Shandong Hualu Hengsheng dmf5600-5700 yuan / ton, Henan Junhua dmf5500 yuan / ton, Zhejiang Jiangshan chemical dmf5700 yuan / ton, Anyang Jiutian dmf5600 yuan / ton, Yanchang Xinghua dmf5500 yuan / ton, Shandong Jinmei daily and monthly dmf5300 yuan / ton.

 

III. Market Analysis

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

Product: over the weekend, the market atmosphere of domestic DMF market is light. With the commencement of Luxi plant, the supply of goods increased, and the inventory pressure was significantly relieved. Other factories maintained a stable wait-and-see shipment, and the downstream just needed procurement was the main, procurement was not active, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. The business agency expects the domestic DMF market to weaken this week.

 

IV. future forecast

 

According to DMF analysts of business agency, in the short term, DMF price consolidation and operation are the main factors, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

EDTA 2Na

I. trend analysis

 

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, the current nickel price on October 22 is 128016.67 yuan / ton, down 0.35% from the previous trading day, up 43.02% from the beginning of the year, up 25.62% year on year.

 

II. Market analysis

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

Recently, nickel price has been declining. In terms of fundamentals, Indonesia’s early ore ban will lead to a domestic nickel iron gap next year, and the Philippines’ supply increase will be limited, which will lead to a domestic shortage of 130000 metal tons. However, the downstream stainless steel production profit declined, the existing steel plants stopped production, the demand for nickel decreased, and the nickel price was under pressure.

 

III. future prospects

 

Future market forecast: supply and demand are weak, LME nickel plate inventory is at a historical low, which has certain support for nickel price. In the early stage, the prohibition of mining was good news consumption. Now, nickel is mainly weak earthquake, and it is expected that nickel will still fluctuate in a weak trend in the short term.

EDTA

In the first three quarters of 2019, the titanium dioxide market experienced three stages of ups and downs. Although the price has been rising steadily in the near future, the market price is still about 1500 yuan / ton lower than that of last year, while the price of titanium ore has continued to rise in the near future. Among them, the price of Panzhihua ore is basically the same as that of last year, the price of imported titanium ore has a significant increase compared with that of last year, and the high price of high-quality titanium ore is higher than that of last year. The price is as high as 70 US dollars per ton, with a rise of about 47% this year.

 

The pressure of titanium dioxide cost is large, the price of sulfuric acid has declined this year, which slightly eases the production cost of titanium dioxide. However, the weather in the North has gradually turned cold, and the market in the North has gradually entered the off-season. The price of titanium ore continues to rise.

 

Why the price of raw material titanium ore keeps rising?

 

From the supply side:

 

Imported titanium ore:

 

Benzalkonium chloride

According to Tu Duoduo’s data, in the first half of 2019, China imported about 1.11 million tons of titanium ore, a decrease of 32% compared with the same period last year. From January to August, China imported 1676900 tons of titanium ore, a decrease of about 520000 tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 23.61% compared with the same period last year.

 

The decrease of titanium ore import is mainly due to the exhaustion of titanium ore resources and the state’s control of radioactive elements. In this year, the resources in the raw ore area of Kenya are exhausted, Sibelco Australia is shut down at the end of 2019, and the project of melinor gudekang is shut down; there is still no quota for the export of titanium ore in Vietnam, and the export of private mining enterprises in India is still limited. In addition, China’s control on radioactive elements, titanium mines in Australia, South Africa, Vietnam and other places are all prohibited from import in varying degrees. This year, titanium is imported. There was a significant reduction in the number of mines.

 

Domestic titanium ore:

 

The output of domestic titanium ore has increased significantly compared with last year, so the price has not increased significantly compared with last year.

 

According to the statistics of Panxi mine, in the first half of this year, the amount of titanium minerals of small and medium-sized factories in Panzhihua area doubled compared with that of last year. In the first half of last year, the output of small and medium-sized factories around Panzhihua area was about 200000 tons, and this year it was more than 400000 tons.

 

In Panzhihua area, the increase of titanium production mainly includes the following aspects:

 

1. The price of iron ore rose, and many small and medium-sized concentrators returned to work.

 

2. The intensity of environmental protection is weakened, and the market operation is increased.

 

3. Compared with last year, Panzhihua Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. has increased the demand for outsourcing ore this year, and the output of titanium ore has increased year on year.

 

The output of titanium ore in Xinjiang is 145000 tons in the first half of this year and 180000 tons in the whole year of last year. However, due to the high phosphorus content of titanium ore in Xinjiang, the downstream can only be used in combination, which has little impact on the market as a whole.

 

It is difficult to make up for the shortage of some imported titanium ores with the increase of domestic titanium ore production. And the content of perovskite and magnesium in China is high, so the raw material of low perovskite and titanium is needed in domestic chlorination process. In recent days, the price of Panxi titanium ore rose again, mainly due to tight supply.

 

Demand side:

 

Titanium ore is mainly produced by titanium dioxide. Taking titanium dioxide production as an example, according to the statistics of Tuduo, the cumulative production from January to September 2019 is 2316000 tons, an increase of about 100000 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 4.72% year on year. It is estimated that there will be an increase of over 100000 tons this year.

 

Titanium market is good, sponge titanium market price is in short supply, and the demand for raw materials is also increasing.

 

Demand growth, supply reduction, so this year’s titanium ore prices also continued to rise.

 

Sodium Molybdate

Why is titanium still optimistic?

 

Imported titanium ore:

 

The main production methods of titanium tetrachloride are shaft furnace chlorination, boiling chlorination and molten salt chlorination. The shaft furnace chlorination process with long process, small capacity and large labor volume has been basically eliminated. The production capacity of boiling chlorination is easy to expand, the three wastes are easy to be treated and other characteristics are more advanced than molten salt method. The domestic production of chlorination is mainly based on boiling chlorination. However, the requirements of boiling chlorination for raw materials are relatively strict, requiring low perovskite.

 

This year, new capacity of domestic chlorination process has been released, while titanium concentrate in Mozambique and Senegal is internationally recognized as the best raw material of chlorination process, with high grade and low content of calcium and magnesium (Cao, MgO < 0.01%), which has been in short supply.

 

This year, the capacity of new domestic chlorination process was released, which greatly increased the quality of titanium raw materials. Take longmang Bailian for example. Last year, 60000 tons of titanium dioxide from chlorination process were produced by enterprises. This year, 300000 tons of titanium dioxide were produced in Jiaozuo area. In addition, 60000 tons of titanium dioxide from chlorination process were produced in Yunnan Province, which doubled the demand for titanium raw materials from high-quality chlorination process. This year, the chlorination process of Tianyuan in Yibin was put into production, and the chlorination process capacity of Xiangsheng in Xinjiang and other enterprises was put into production. Release, sponge titanium market demand, demand for raw materials is also increasing. However, there are still a large number of capacity under construction in the market, and the mining of new mines will face various problems. The price of titanium raw materials for high-quality chlorination continues to be optimistic.

 

Panxi titanium ore:

 

1. As the price of imported titanium ore continues to rise, the downstream titanium dioxide plants are also adjusting the proportion of ore consumption and increasing the demand for Panzhihua ore.

 

2. Since September, Panzhihua steel titanium industry requires that the outsourced processing enterprises of iron and titanium products must return the titanium concentrate in full amount as agreed in the contract, resulting in the suspension of the export quantity of the outsourced enterprises that return insufficient amount to Panzhihua Steel in the early stage. At present, the supply quantity of titanium concentrate in Panzhihua area is in short supply. It also causes the recent price increase.

 

4. The price of raw ore is high and the cost of medium-sized ore is high. If the factory price is 850 yuan / ton of medium-sized ore at present, the market price is 1300 yuan / ton and there is basically no profit;

 

5. After the national day, the operating rate of titanium dioxide increased and the demand for titanium ore increased.

 

Although the titanium dioxide market has gradually entered the off-season, the supply of titanium ore is tight, and the price will still run at a high level, which also supports the price of titanium dioxide.

 

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I. price trend

 

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) has been continuously reduced in recent days. On October 16, the average price of enterprises was 7566 yuan / ton; on October 21, the average price of enterprises fell to 7287 yuan / ton, a drop of 3.69%.

 

II. Analysis and comment

 

Product: it is the National Day holiday at the beginning of October. Due to the impact of the policy of limiting production and operation, the price of propylene during the holiday has been generally stable, with occasional downward trend. After the end of the policy, most of the initial prices remained stable. On the 10th and 11th, the prices of the enterprises rose. On the 12th, the prices stabilized. On the 13th, 14th and 15th, they all rose slightly. On the 16th, they were stable. On the 17th, most of the enterprises began to decline. On the weekend, the decline was obvious. Today, some enterprises still fell. At present, the market turnover is about 7200-7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7200 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory pressure of the refinery is increasing, and the shipment is not smooth.

 

Potassium monopersulfate

Industry chain: upstream, the international crude oil market fluctuates in a narrow range, with limited support for propylene market. In the downstream, affected by environmental protection issues, most of the downstream product prices of propylene are in a downward trend, the demand side support is weakened, and the purchase of propylene is cold and wait-and-see.

 

In the near future, the PP spot market is weak, and the current price is the same as that at the beginning of last week, which has little impact on propylene.

 

Domestic acrylic acid demand is weak in recent days, the market inquiry volume is small, today’s market down 2.16%, propylene prices have a certain degree of repression.

 

Propylene oxide has declined several times in recent days, down 2.22% on the 6th, which is also bad for propylene market.

 

The price of epichlorohydrin has been rising for several times, up 16% in half a month, which has a certain effect on propylene market.

 

In recent days, the n-butanol market has been affected by the support surface, maintaining a weak stability and consolidation, and the price has not fluctuated.

 

The price of octanol has been explored continuously in recent days, with a 6-day drop of 2.52%. Recently, octanol market or low consolidation is the main factor, which has a suppressive effect on propylene market.

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

Isopropanol market has been a weak decline since October, half month decline has reached 12.29%, the downstream do not buy the mood to wait-and-see, the delivery of goods holders is relatively soft, which has a negative impact on propylene market.

 

Phenol market fell 8.90% in half a month, or it will continue to maintain this trend, which will suppress propylene.

 

Acetone market fell 10.49% in half a month, and may continue to maintain weak operation, which is bad for propylene market.

 

III. future forecast

 

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the propylene market has been continuously lowered recently. Crude oil mainly fluctuates in a narrow range; most of the lower reaches are down and the purchase is cold, so it is expected that the market price of propylene will continue to decline in recent days.

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

I. price trend of epichlorohydrin:

 

The market price of epichlorohydrin rose by 3.37% as of October 21, compared with that of last Friday (October 18), according to the data in the large list of business agencies. Today, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin is 17000-19200 yuan / ton.

 

II. Market analysis:

 

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Product: epichlorohydrin market rose on the 21st. On 21, the domestic epichlorohydrin market continued to rise, the supply side was tight, the focus of the negotiation was high-end, the mentality of the buyer was strong, low-cost goods were hard to find, downstream users just needed to buy, the buyer did not take the initiative to offer, and there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the site.

 

Industrial chain: the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong fell slightly on the 21st. At the beginning of October, it was the National Day holiday. Due to the impact of the policy of limiting production and operation, the price of propylene remained stable during the holiday, with occasional downward trend. After the end of the policy, most of the initial prices remained stable. On the 10th and 11th, the prices of the enterprises rose. On the 12th, the prices stabilized. On the 13th, 14th and 15th, they all rose slightly. On the 16th, they were stable. On the 17th, most of the enterprises began to decline. On the weekend, the decline was obvious. Today, some enterprises still fell. At present, the market turnover is about 7200-7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7200 yuan / ton. On the 21st, the downstream epoxy resin was obviously supported by the production cost, and the manufacturers mainly made high-level offers.

 

3. Future forecast:

 

According to epichlorohydrin analysts of the business association, the slight drop of upstream raw material propylene has limited impact on epichlorohydrin, and the supply and demand side is still the key to increase or decrease the price of epichlorohydrin. The short-term operators are optimistic, and the tight situation of the market is difficult to ease temporarily. The market may maintain a high level of consolidation, which does not rule out the possibility of pushing up. The specific situation still needs to pay close attention to the upstream and downstream mainstream manufacturers’ information guidance.

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