I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, as of November 4, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 12525 yuan / ton, with the price falling 4.02% month on month and 5.59% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The overall market continued to be light.

II. Market analysis

Product: last Friday (11.1), the domestic aggregate MDI market was weak. The new moon listing policies of suppliers have been issued one after another, with stable prices and strict market control. It can be seen that enterprises have strong intention to stabilize the market. At present, the industry keeps stable delivery, but due to the lack of good market and weak market inquiry atmosphere, the industry tends to be pessimistic about the future market. It is expected that the short-term aggregate MDI market range is weak, focusing on the demand situation.

Market, North China and Shandong aggregate MDI market deadlock. Suppliers are listed in new moon to maintain stability, and some enterprises continue to reduce supply. However, downstream demand is weak, the mentality of middlemen is poor, the market spot is still tight at the beginning of the month, and most of the enterprises keep stable shipment. East China aggregate MDI market range consolidation. Suppliers’ information has been released one after another, enterprises have been shipping at a stable price, and downstream small orders have entered the market on demand. Market trading is not smooth, and some operators are under pressure of post market mentality, mainly shipping. South China aggregate MDI market range consolidation. The suppliers’ information has been announced one after another, and the market is still strictly controlled, the downstream demand is weak, the market is not smooth in terms of firm offer and trading, the operators are lack of confidence in the future market, and the delivery is the main thing.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: Asian pure benzene Market: in December, the seller intends to pay 623 US dollars / ton fob in Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: weak situation of East China pure benzene market is sorted out, and the negotiation reference is 5200-5300 yuan / ton, and the negotiation of far month goods is 5000-5050 yuan / ton. Part of the buying intention is slightly low, the optimistic attitude is insufficient, and the external market shock lacks support for domestic trade.

Aniline: the focus of aniline Market is stable. East China’s enterprises have limited market volume. They purchase on demand downstream. The atmosphere of market real offer and investment is general. The price of raw materials is loose. The industry has insufficient confidence in the future market. The enterprises keep a stable delivery.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, enterprises have less market volume; suppliers intend to stabilize the market. In terms of bad news, the terminal just needs to be improved to a limited extent; some downstream still have pre inventory, mainly digesting inventory. Supply side new moon policies have been issued one after another to keep less volume on the market. However, downstream demand is weak, and most of the business owners are lack of confidence in the future market. According to MDI analysts, the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market range is sorted out and the transaction is low-end.

I. price trend

In October 2019, the domestic BDO market rose first and then stabilized. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the BDO price at the end of the first month was 9520 yuan / ton, down 15.38% from the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the domestic BDO market this month is stable for the time being, but the market atmosphere is slightly better than that in the earlier stage. In the early stage, the starting load of the factory is not high, and the inventory pressure is not available for the time being. Therefore, the mentality of the enterprise is stable, the intention to pull up is high, the price is low, and the traders are reluctant to sell. The attitude of market protection is continued, the offer is firm, the downstream market entry prudence is not reduced, and the waiting atmosphere is becoming stronger.

In terms of devices, the operation rate of BDO plant increased significantly in October, Cathay Pacific + Tunhe + Inner Mongolia Dongyuan + Ronghe + Kaixiang was restarted in succession, the on-site supply increased, the long-term supply tended to be stable, and the shortage of spot supply eased. Although the supply of re production plants is gradually filling the market, three new plants were well maintained in early November, including Xinjiang Meike, hecian and Meizhou Bay, The supply is tight again, and the support from the supply side is still there.

Industrial chain: raw materials: methanol: in October, the methanol market first experienced a significant decline, and rose slightly at the end of the month. At the end of the month, the overall market showed a shock and high state under the support of downstream and traders’ replenishment, and the early inventory details of some regions decreased, and it is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term.

Calcium carbide: this month, the calcium carbide production enterprises have normal devices, stable output, flexible market transaction price, and increased downstream arrival volume. It is expected that the calcium carbide market will be subject to short-term shocks

On the downstream side, the overall commencement of the downstream has not been significantly improved, the demand side is weak, just need to make up positions, but the bargaining power is not strong, small single negotiation price is higher than high-end.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in October 2019, there were 20 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 8 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (25.36%), epichlorohydrin (25.33%) and sulfur (19.54%). There are 56 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 29 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 34.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are nitric acid (- 30.41%), butadiene (- 19.30%) and acetic acid (- 18.84%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 2.82%.

III. future forecast

Generally speaking, the cost support is limited. However, the recent maintenance good news continues to enter the market, and the supply of goods is still in a state of tension. The factory is bound to continue its intention to support the market and report a small increase in inventory. However, it is constrained by the downstream demand. BDO analysts of the business agency predict that although the BDO market has a rising trend in the short term, the increase should be around 100 yuan / ton. Specifically, we need to pay attention to the restart of Tianye devices Condition.

I. price trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone remained stable this week. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the week and the end of the week was 7900 yuan / ton, down 12.71% month on month and 39.23% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made it clear that there are not many offers. The shipping level of enterprises is around 7600-7800 yuan / ton. Most of them supply supporting downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. The market of cyclohexanone in South China is weak, and the negotiation is delivered with reference to 8050-8150 yuan / ton. The buying intention tends to be lower than the low-end. The seller ships with the market. The atmosphere is relatively weak, and the merchants are optimistic. The market of cyclohexanone in East China was sorted out in a weak atmosphere. The negotiation reference was 8000-8100 yuan / ton. A few of the sales were slightly higher. The weak upstream operation lacked effective support for the market, and the rigid downstream procurement was the main demand.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: Asian pure benzene Market: in December, the seller intends to pay 623 US dollars / ton fob in Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: weak situation of East China pure benzene market is sorted out, and the negotiation reference is 5200-5300 yuan / ton, and the negotiation of far month goods is 5000-5050 yuan / ton. Part of the buying intention is slightly low, the optimistic attitude is insufficient, and the external market shock lacks support for domestic trade.

Caprolactam: the weak market of US $caprolactam is lower, the quotation of merchants is lower, the inquiry atmosphere of downstream factories is light, there are not many actual orders in the market, and the mainstream negotiation reference is 1330-1350 US dollars / ton. The caprolactam liquid market is weak, and the main real single negotiated price in East China market is 11400-11500 yuan / ton (6 months’ acceptance delivery), stable. Caprolactam business offer is temporarily stable, the focus of market negotiation is low-end. Downstream just need to buy mainly, the market trading atmosphere is light.

Adipic acid: the domestic adipic acid market is weak and volatile, the weak atmosphere in the market is diffuse, the downstream demand is sluggish and hard to change, the inquiry continues to be light, the mentality of traders is short, the initial inventory is sold at a low price, and it is expected that the adipic acid market will be narrowed in the future.

III. future forecast

On the positive side, rigid demand is relatively stable. On the negative side, the demand is insufficient; the market of downstream products is low; the price of pure benzene is declining. According to the analysis of cyclohexanone by the business society, the upstream and downstream short-term performance is weak, lack of effective support for the market, low prices of enterprises, and weak short-term consolidation of the domestic market of cyclohexanone.

I. price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market at the beginning of this week was 12625 yuan / ton, while the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market at the weekend was 12525 yuan / ton, down 0.79% in the week, 4.02% in the same period last month, and 5.59% in the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic aggregate MDI market weak finishing. North China and East China Wanhua cargo negotiation is 12400-12600 yuan / ton, Shanghai cargo negotiation is 11700-12000 yuan / ton, South China Wanhua cargo negotiation is 12500-12700 yuan / ton, Shanghai cargo negotiation is 11700-12000 yuan / ton. The supply side new moon policy has been introduced one after another to keep less volume on the market, but the downstream demand is weak, and most of the operators are lack of confidence in the future market.

In terms of market, as of Friday (11.1), the MDI market of polymerization in North China and Shandong was in a stalemate. Suppliers are listed in new moon to maintain stability, and some enterprises continue to reduce supply. However, downstream demand is weak, the mentality of middlemen is poor, the market spot is still tight at the beginning of the month, and most of the enterprises keep stable shipment. East China aggregate MDI market range consolidation. Suppliers’ information has been released one after another, enterprises have been shipping at a stable price, and downstream small orders have entered the market on demand. Market trading is not smooth, and some operators are under pressure of post market mentality, mainly shipping. South China aggregate MDI market range consolidation. The suppliers’ information has been announced one after another, and the market is still strictly controlled, the downstream demand is weak, the market is not smooth in terms of firm offer and trading, the operators are lack of confidence in the future market, and the delivery is the main thing.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: Asian pure benzene Market: in December, the seller intends to pay 623 US dollars / ton fob in Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: weak situation of East China pure benzene market is sorted out, and the negotiation reference is 5200-5300 yuan / ton, and the negotiation of far month goods is 5000-5050 yuan / ton. Part of the buying intention is slightly low, the optimistic attitude is insufficient, and the external market shock lacks support for domestic trade.

Aniline: in the week, the focus of domestic aniline Market remained stable, East China enterprises had limited market volume, downstream procurement on demand, general market trading atmosphere, loose prices of raw materials, lack of confidence in the future market, and enterprises kept stable shipment.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, enterprises have less market volume; suppliers intend to stabilize the market. In terms of bad news, the terminal just needs to be improved to a limited extent; some downstream still have pre inventory, mainly digesting inventory. MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market range consolidation, low-end transactions.

I. price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market price of propylene fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the average price of the enterprise was 7488 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, it was the monthly low price, 7261 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 3.04%. The high price of this month was 7566 yuan / ton on October 15 and 16, with a monthly amplitude of 4.02%.

II. Analysis and comment

Product: it is the National Day holiday at the beginning of October. Due to the impact of the policy of limiting production and operation, the price of propylene during the holiday has been generally stable, with occasional downward trend. After the end of the policy, most of the initial prices remained stable. On the 10th and 11th, the prices of the enterprises rose. On the 12th, the prices stabilized. On the 13th, 14th and 15th, they all rose slightly. On the 16th, they were stable. On the 17th, most of the enterprises began to decline. On the weekend, the decline was obvious. The price continued to rise on the 22nd, the 23rd, the 27th, the 30th, and the 100yuan/ At present, the market turnover is about 7150-7450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7200 yuan / ton. Now, the haze weather is getting worse, which has some adverse effects on the equipment and logistics transportation in the area.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the explosion of Iranian oil tanker in the early October led to an obvious rise in international crude oil, which had a certain effect on propylene. However, in the later period, the crude oil market failed to maintain the upward trend, which was relatively low and weak support for propylene. Downstream, the end of the month PP market is not obvious, some negative impact on propylene.

In October, PP spot fell in shock, with a monthly decline of 3.57%, which had a negative impact on propylene market.

In October, the domestic acrylic acid market showed a ladder like downward trend, with a monthly decline of 7.14%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

Propylene oxide declined to its original position after rising in October, with a monthly decline of only 0.5% and an amplitude of 6.01%. In the future, it is mainly weak consolidation, with limited impact on propylene.

In October, epichlorohydrin continued its previous upward trend, with a monthly increase of 25.33%, which had a positive impact on propylene price.

N-butanol market gradually declined in October, down 6.70% month on month, which had a negative impact on propylene.

The price of octanol fell continuously in the first ten days of October, and began to stabilize in the last ten days, with a monthly decline of 7.21%, which may have a negative impact on propylene.

In October, isopropanol market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the buying is cautious, with a monthly decline of 16.39%, which has a suppressive effect on propylene.

In October, the domestic phenol market was stable and slightly recovered, with a monthly decline of 9.36%, which had a certain negative impact on propylene.

In October, the domestic acetone market also stabilized after a downward trend, picking up slightly, with a monthly drop of 14.88%, which had a certain negative impact on propylene.

III. future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of business and chemical branch, overall, propylene declined after two gains in October. The upstream crude oil market is relatively low; the downstream also has a certain negative impact, so it is expected that the propylene price in Shandong will still have a downward trend in the short term.

In October, the domestic caustic soda market performance was flat, and the market prices in the mainstream production areas were mostly in a narrow downward trend. At the end of the month, alumina was purchased for the last time before the limit of production in the heating season, and the purchase price dropped significantly.

In terms of manufacturers, after a wave of centralized procurement before the National Day holiday, most traders and downstream enterprises have relatively sufficient stock of goods at present, which can be seen from the centralized low-cost selling of flake alkali traders. In terms of manufacturers, the inventory pressure increases due to the weakening of shipment, among which the prices of North China liquid alkali and Northwest China flake alkali market have been in different degrees In the East China market, due to the equipment maintenance of some manufacturers and the relatively concentrated orders of normal equipment manufacturers, the market price continues to rise. As can be seen from the above, the performance of caustic soda manufacturers in the near future is not satisfactory.

In terms of the downstream alumina, at present, many areas in North China, such as Luliang, Xiaoyi, and Shandong, require limited production in the heating season. According to the notice, the alumina roasting process is stopped by 50% of the production line during the heating season. It is forbidden to use the heavy-duty trucks (including gas) under the Fourth National Congress for material transportation. From the psychological point of view, it is no different from the biggest negative for the caustic soda market. Under the situation of demand reduction, the market price of caustic soda will be greatly reduced.

According to the situation of both sides of supply and demand, in the short term, domestic caustic soda market is dominated by negative market. In terms of liquid alkali, the procurement of alumina manufacturers will gradually reduce, while the inventory pressure of manufacturers will gradually increase, and the market price will decline to some extent. At the same time, the winter storage of alumina enterprises is imperative, which will start to form a certain boost to the flake alkali market, and at the same time, it will also form a certain boost to the liquid alkali market

I. overall trend

In October, the trend of three major PE products in the domestic market showed a downward trend, and LLDPE, HDPE and LDPE in East China continued to decline this month. According to the monitoring of the business association, the end of LLDPE 7042 was reduced to about 7450 yuan / ton; the end of LDPE 2426h was reduced to about 8400 yuan / ton; the end of HDPE 5000S was reduced to about 8316.67 yuan / ton; the decline range was all in the range of 200-300 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

October was the peak season of demand for agricultural film, but the focus of PE market continued to move down, and the downstream orders were not as good as previous years, and the price of raw materials was expected to be more bearish. This month’s linear futures fell in shock, although rebounded during the period, but the overall weakness, Limited good for the market. Petrochemical has repeatedly lowered the factory price, weakened the market cost support, and affected by environmental protection, the production of terminal enterprises is blocked. Most of the lower reaches are just in need of replenishment, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. In the month, petrochemicals maintained a strong inventory control capacity, and the inventory was kept at a medium low level, but the good continued to be insufficient, which still could not save the declining situation. Most of the goods are shipped by the carrier, and the price continuously gives way to the profit.

Futures: on October 31, the opening price of main contracts of polyethylene futures l2001 was 7260, the highest price was 7335, the lowest price was 7255, the closing price was 7270, the former settlement price was 7285, the settlement price was 7295, down 15, down 0.07%, the volume was 388462, the position was 619888, and the daily increase was 4334. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

In terms of downstream enterprises, in October, the downstream demand of the agricultural film market basically entered the peak season stage. In the peak season, many manufacturers have ordered a large number of goods in advance, with relatively stable supply and demand and high load operation of the device. At the end of October, the operating rate of agricultural film was about 58%. End of mulch film and garlic film. The overall economic situation is flat, the downstream operation wait-and-see mentality is obvious, and the procurement is just needed.

Import and export: about 1.3402 million tons of PE import in September 2019. Among them, the import volume of LLDPE is 40200 tons; the import volume of HDPE is 663400 tons; the import volume of LDPE is 276600 tons, and the total export volume of PE in September 2019 is 17200 tons.

III. future forecast

PE analysts of business club believe that the volatility of futures trend to some extent depresses the confidence of the industry, the traditional peak demand season did not meet expectations, the international crude oil fell, and the demand for agricultural film turned weak. At present, it is close to the end of the peak season, with limited market benefits, but at present, the petrochemical inventory has fallen down. In addition, due to the shutdown of some manufacturers’ devices, the market supply has decreased, which supports the market. It is expected that the PE market will decline slightly in November.

On October 30, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 30th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 29, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was stable. The closing price was 777-779 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 797-799 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic products needed to be imported. The fluctuation of external market price had a certain negative impact on domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend was temporarily stable.

WTI crude oil futures fell to $55.54 per barrel on October 29, down $0.27, while Brent crude oil futures rose to $61.59 per barrel, up $0.02. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its crude oil inventory report for the past week later on Tuesday, while the energy information administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of energy will release its inventory report on Wednesday. According to S & P global Platts, analysts on average expect us crude oil inventories to increase by 2.5 million barrels, gasoline inventories to decrease by 2.5 million barrels and distillate (including diesel and heating oil) inventories to decrease by 2.4 million barrels in the week to October 25. The crude oil price declined slightly, which had limited impact on the cost support of downstream petrochemical products, and the domestic p-xylene price trend was stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average offer price in East China is around 4900-5000 yuan / ton. As of the 29th day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 84.5%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 88%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general transaction atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by the original oil price. The price of PTA in the downstream market is slightly lower due to grid shock, and it is expected that PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

On October 30, the fluorite commodity index was 100.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.80% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 105.18% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite is stable temporarily. As of 30 days, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2877.78 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic fluorite device has been started normally, the mine and flotation device in the field have been started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, and the downstream hydrofluoric acid price has been kept low in the near future. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the goods in the fluorite field are generally sold, and the price trend of fluorite market is stable temporarily. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not improved, resulting in weak market price. As of the 30th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton, and that of fluorite remained low.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite remains low. As of 30 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 9640 yuan / ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a certain negative impact on the upstream market of fluorite. However, in recent years, the operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is generally in progress, the demand for fluorite is weakened, and the price of fluorite remains low. In the near future, the transaction market of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is general, and the domestic refrigerant R22 market is volatile. From the perspective of market supply, the market of refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production device reduces the starting load, the supply capacity of the market source has declined, and the inventory pressure has been buffered. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers only reduced the demand without increasing, and the price of domestic large enterprises is 12000-13000 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market remains low. At present, R134a market has entered the off-season, downstream demand is relatively weak, and the operating rate of several R134a production enterprises remains low. However, the transaction price in the market keeps falling, the merchants purchase on demand, the peak season ends, the downstream demand of the terminal only decreases but not increases, and the affected price of fluorite market is at a low level.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry is low and the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is poor. However, as the temperature drops, the supply of fluorite in the North may decrease. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may maintain a low trend.

In the future, under the influence of access conditions and integration, the concentration of domestic industries is expected to further improve

A supply

As the mother of chemical industry, soda ash is widely used as an important basic chemical raw material. After 2000, China’s soda ash industry has developed rapidly in the world, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 2.45%. From 2004 to 2010, the production capacity grew rapidly. In 2015, the production capacity was once reduced, and after 2015, the overall production capacity growth declined.

The world’s soda industry originated in Belgium in 1865. Solvay discovered the key technology of industrial production of soda ash, namely Solvay soda process. In 1865, Solvay established Solvay company, becoming the first soda plant. After 1870, Solvay established factories in Britain, Germany, Russia and the United States. From the middle of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century, with the discovery and exploitation of local natural soda, the United States became the main producer and exporter of soda ash in the world. Since 2000, China’s soda ash production capacity has gradually increased, with a larger proportion in the world. In 2000, the global soda production capacity was 44.72 million tons, the output was 34.21 million tons, and the operating rate was 76%. North America was the main soda supply area, accounting for 32% of the global soda production capacity, while China’s production capacity accounted for 24% of the global soda production capacity, accounting for 8.34 million tons. Since 2003, China’s soda production capacity has been increasing. By the end of 2018, China’s soda production capacity has reached 29.59 million tons, and the global capacity has reached 70.33 million tons, accounting for 48% of the world’s total. China, North America and Western Europe account for 80% of global capacity.

The production process of soda ash mainly includes ammonia alkali process, natural alkali process and combined alkali process. Globally, ammonia alkali process units are widely distributed, accounting for 47%; natural alkali process units account for 24%, mainly distributed in the United States, Turkey and China; combined alkali process units account for 23%, almost all of which are distributed in China.

China’s soda ash output can be self-sufficient, with the export volume accounting for 5% of the national output, and the export place is mainly Southeast Asian countries, with an import dependency of about 1%. In 2018, China’s soda production reached 26.11 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.9%. After 2015′s elimination of production capacity and policy access restrictions, the operating rate of the soda industry increased to a high level.

The top ten soda production enterprises in the world are Solvay group (7.5 million tons), Chuangshi soda industry (4.4 million tons), Tangshan Sanyou (3.4 million tons), Shandong Haihua (3 million tons), Sina resources (2.8 million tons), China Salt Group (2.63 million tons), Tata chemical North America company (2.5 million tons), Kazan soda company (2.5 million tons), Henan Jinshan Chemical Industry (2 million tons), Central Chemical Company (190 million tons) Ten thousand tons. Solvay group’s soda production capacity is distributed all over the world. Chuangshi and Sina resources and Tata chemical are natural soda enterprises in the United States. Tangshan Sanyou, Shandong Haihua and China Salt Group are the top three soda producers in China. The Cr4 of global soda industry is 0.25, that of China is 0.35, and that of USA is 0.9. The global soda industry is relatively scattered. China’s soda industry is a low concentration oligopoly, while the US soda industry is a high concentration oligopoly.

B demand

In recent years, the global demand for soda ash has made great progress with the rapid development of production. Globally, glass is the main downstream of soda ash, accounting for 52% of the demand for soda ash; soap and detergent account for 13% of the demand for soda ash; inorganic chemicals account for 12% of the demand for soda ash, and the first three account for 77% of the demand for soda ash. Regionally, China, Western Europe, North America and Southeast Asia are the main consumers of soda ash, accounting for 79% of global consumption. From a national perspective, China, the United States, Turkey and India are the main soda producers, while the United States and Turkey are the main soda exporters.

In terms of consumption, China is consistent with the world. Glass, household glass and photovoltaic glass are also the main consumption areas, followed by detergent and inorganic salt. The main demand areas of soda ash in China are in South China, North China and East China, which are the main production areas of glass.

North America accounts for 20% of global production capacity, but only 11% of demand, and about half of production is exported.

C industry characteristics

The characteristics of soda industry are as follows:

Resource dependent low threshold basic industries

Among the raw materials of soda ash, coal, natural gas, raw salt and limestone are all natural resources, which are resource dependent. The United States is rich in natural alkali resources, with good quality of soda ash and high market share of soda ash export. The production methods of soda ash, such as natural soda process, combined soda process and ammonia soda process, are relatively early processes, and the technical threshold is not high, so the soda industry is a resource dependent low threshold industry. Soda ash is an important basic industrial raw material. No matter it is soda ash or glass, there is no competitive substitute in the current technical conditions.

Soda ash has great influence on raw salt and glass in the industrial chain

The price of coal and natural gas has a great influence on the cost of soda ash. The capacity of raw salt exceeds 110 million tons, the capacity of soda ash industry is about 30 million tons, and the consumption of salt is calculated as 1.5 tons, about 4500 tons, with an impact on raw salt of about 40%. The main downstream of ammonia synthesis is urea, which has a certain impact on the soda industry, but the impact of soda on the ammonia industry is relatively small. Coal and natural gas are mainly used for heating and power generation, and chemical demand accounts for less than 10%. Soda ash has little influence on the price of coal. About 60% of soda ash downstream glass, 0.2 tons of soda ash is needed for one ton of glass, accounting for 20% – 30% of glass cost. In the whole industrial chain, coal and natural gas have great influence on soda ash and glass, while soda ash has great influence on raw salt and glass, little influence on synthetic ammonia and little influence on soda ash.

The concentration of soda ash in China has increased

At present, the concentration of domestic soda ash market has been improved after the previous large capacity investment, elimination of capacity and industrial integration. The market share of the top 4 domestic soda ash enterprises is 0.35, and that of the top 8 enterprises is 0.54. In the future, restricted by access conditions and continuous integration, the concentration of domestic soda industry is expected to continue to improve. According to the “access conditions for soda industry” implemented on June 1, 2010, the threshold for new domestic soda plants is 600000 tons for combined soda process and 1.2 million tons for ammonia soda process. According to this estimate, the investment of new equipment is more than 1 billion yuan, and the construction period is about 3 years. The access conditions for soda ash industry also requires that the new production capacity should actively adopt advanced process technology, select energy-saving and environmental protection equipment, and realize online detection of main sections and equipment parameters and adopt DCS (distributed) control system.