On June 17, the PX commodity index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 17th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily. Due to the normal supply of p-xylene in the domestic market when the new unit was put into operation, p-dimethyl benzene was supplied normally. The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On June 14, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia declined by 13 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 799-801 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 818-820 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporary stable.

On June 14, the price of WTI crude oil in July rose to 52.51 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.23 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil in August rose to 62.01 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.70 U.S. dollars. Crude oil price trend rose, which has a cost supporting role for the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has been stabilizing, PTA price has been stabilizing for 17 days. The average price in East China is raised near 5450-5600 yuan/ton. As of 14 days, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 88%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 87.5%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market price shocks, and PX market price is expected to be low in the later period.

I. Trend analysis

Nickel prices have risen sharply this week, according to business associations. At the beginning of the week, the price of nickel was 97308.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the price of nickel rose to 10366.67 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 3.14%.

II. Market Trend Analysis

This week, nickel prices rose sharply, mainly due to heavy rains in Indonesia, causing supply concerns, detonating nickel prices, but the overall nickel fundamentals are weak. On the supply side, the May data show that the domestic production of medium and high nickel iron is 432,000 tons, an increase of 40% over the same period last year. Then in June, the production of medium and high nickel iron is expected to reach 44,000 tons, an increase of 56.9% over the same period last year. On the demand side, stainless steel stocks in the downstream are high and demand is weak.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Nickel analysts at the non-ferrous branch of the business association believe that the recent floods in Nepal have damaged some mining equipment, while local debt relaxation stimulates infrastructure construction, double-edged to push up nickel prices, while refining nickel plate inventory is low, but the demand for stainless steel downstream is weak, and nickel price shocks are expected to be strong.

According to an article published on the website of the Wall Street Journal on June 11, through a joint venture between Cosco Shipping Holdings Ltd., China’s largest ocean transportation company, and Hyundai Merchant Shipping, a Russian shipping giant, China is moving into the Arctic shipping sector in order to transport natural gas from Siberia to the western and Asian markets.

The article introduces that these companies will use more than a dozen icebreakers to transport LNG from Yamal LNG project in Russia to Nordic Europe, Japan, South Korea and China along the northern coast of Siberia. According to British Ship Price Assessment Corporation, COSCO Maritime Liquefied Natural Gas Investment Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of COSCO, will operate nine more similar icebreakers. A year ago, Beijing released its first white paper on Arctic policy. According to the white paper, China encourages enterprises to participate in the construction of Arctic waterway infrastructure, conduct commercial trial voyages according to law, and jointly build the “Silk Road on Ice” with all parties.

The article says that China hopes that the Arctic route will become part of the “one belt” initiative, which aims to connect Asia and Europe through ocean, rail and road networks. In 2013, China became an official observer of the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council is an intergovernmental forum composed of the United States, Canada, Russia, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Iceland. It mainly discusses the development issues and navigation rights arising from the melting of Arctic ice.

According to the article, the United States, Russia, Canada, Denmark and Norway all claim the right to use the Arctic waterway, while China regards investing in the Arctic as a top priority to promote its energy and shipping development.

As China moves from coal to cleaner fuels, it is expected to overtake Japan as the world’s largest importer of liquefied natural gas this year.

The article quotes a Chinese shipping executive as saying: “We hope to get about 4 million tons of LNG a year from the Yamal project. We also hope to transport containers via Arctic routes, because warming temperatures melt the ice and make navigation easier.

At the same time that China and Russia reached an agreement, Russian officials announced that Sergei Frank, chief executive of Russian Modern Merchant Shipping Company, would be the head of a new Arctic Route Committee. He said that the transportation and logistics of the project will be integrated into a platform to optimize shipping, port berthing and inland transportation of liquefied natural gas.

Frank also said that the volume of cargo transported through the Arctic route was “increasing in geometric progression”, and that more containers and ordinary cargo ships would travel between Asia and Europe through the Arctic route in the future to save time compared with traditional routes via the Suez Canal.

I. The price trend of epichlorohydrin:

According to the data from the business associations’list, as of June 13, epichlorohydrin was 14100.00 yuan/ton (including taxes), up 1.44% compared with last week’s 6th. Today, the mainstream price of epichlorohydrin in China is 13500-15000 yuan/ton.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Epichlorohydrin market is rising. At present, the spot supply is tight, the manufacturers have no pressure to deliver, and the focus of negotiation is close to the high-end. Some downstream just need replenishment.

Industry chain: Upstream propylene supply is tight, supplier inventory is low, but affected by the decline in crude oil, the market has entered a wait-and-see stage, price stability is dominant. Downstream epoxy resin, manufacturers shipment pressure is not reduced, follow-up orders are limited.

3. Future market forecast:

According to business associations, the domestic epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by high-level finishing in the short term.

On June 13, the PX commodity index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 13th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily. Since the new plant was put into operation, the domestic market for p-xylene was normally supplied. The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On June 12, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 40 US dollars per ton. The closing price was 819-821 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 838-840 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic imports are needed. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On June 12, the futures market price of WTI crude oil in July fell sharply to $51.14 per barrel, a decline of $2.13. The futures price of Brent crude oil in August dropped sharply to $59.97 per barrel, a decline of $2.32. The price of crude oil declined, losing some cost support to the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of paraxylene market stabilized temporarily. Recently, the textile industry has been stabilizing, PTA price has slightly declined on the 13th day. The average price in East China is raised near 5450-5600 yuan/ton. As of the 12th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 88%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 87.5%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market price shocks, and PX market price is expected to be low in the later period.

Yesterday’s domestic PVC market quotation basically unchanged. V1909 futures opened slightly higher, but the pressure above was greater. After touching the 10-day line, it fell back, and empty sheet funds increased warehousing. It closed in a small negative line. From the perspective of PVC enterprises, enterprises in all regions have basically maintained stable offers. Only a few enterprises have slightly adjusted, and the fluctuation range is small. Others have preferential treatment for large orders of contract households. In the spot market, the market price does not change much. Most of the merchants are on the market temporarily, and there is no obvious change in overcharge. The atmosphere in the main districts is general. Although some of them have some expectations for national policies, the demand in off-season superimposed supply increases, and the atmosphere is still weak. From the downstream products enterprises’point of view, the inquiries and orders of enterprises are just needed, and they are in conflict with high prices, and the market turnover is basically in the low price supply. At present, the mainstream price of calcium carbide method 5 refers to 6560-6800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene material refers to 7050-7200 yuan/ton. The fluctuation range of high-type PVC market is limited and 100-150 yuan/ton is high.

It is expected that the fluctuation range of domestic PVC market today is limited, and the adjustment range is expected to be around 30-50 yuan/ton.

Productive factors: unbalanced distribution of carbide supply, shortage of carbide supply in Shaanxi and Shanxi. Ningxia’s transport inspection is strict, transport trucks affect the export of some calcium carbide, and the purchase price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi area rises again. Since June, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will make a comprehensive arrangement for all hazardous chemical enterprises and chemical parks, and the impact on dangerous chemicals in the later period remains to be seen. The price of external market is at a high level, and Taiwan Plastic PVC has increased its US dollar quotation in July.

The negative factors: the social stock increased in the last period, and after mid-June, the supply side will gradually increase and the market will be depressed; the traditional demand coming off season, the demand for raw materials of product enterprises will be reduced, some of which will be supplemented, and the digestibility of supply is insufficient; Sino-US trade friction, domestic export tariff of PVC flooring will be raised to 25%, to a certain extent, to curb. Outflow of manufactured goods; 4% drop in international oil prices, confidence of bearish participants.

On June 12, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles, and the price trend in the field declines. As of the 12th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was between 1900 and 2050 yuan/ton, which was affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas have been forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate in the field is temporarily stable.

Recently, domestic nitric acid prices have risen, up to 12th day, the market price is 1760 yuan/ton. The rising trend of nitric acid prices has a positive impact on the market of ammonium nitrate. The price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of liquid ammonia in upstream raw materials has slightly declined. As of 12th, the price quoted by manufacturers in the northern region has maintained in the range of 3100-3500 yuan/ton, while that in the northwest region is around 2800-3000 yuan/ton. The declining price trend of cruise raw materials has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the latter part of the shocks.

On June 12, the PX commodity index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 12th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily. Due to the normal supply of p-xylene in the domestic market when the new unit was put into operation, p-dimethyl benzene was supplied normally. The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On June 11, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia declined by 3 US dollars per ton. The closing price was 859-861 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 878-880 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rising price of foreign units has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On June 11, WTI crude oil futures market in July rose slightly to $53.27 per barrel, an increase of $0.01. Brent crude oil futures price in August was flat to $62.29 per barrel. The trend of crude oil price rose, which lost some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products and temporarily stabilized the price trend of paraxylene market. Recently, the textile industry has been stabilizing, PTA price has been stabilizing for 12 days. The average offer price in East China is raised near 5500-5600 yuan/ton. As of 11 days, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 88%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 87.5%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market price shocks, and PX Market price is expected to be low in the later period.

On June 12, the rare earth index was 404 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 59.60% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 49.08% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals is 4.575 million yuan per ton, dysprosium metal is 2.4 million yuan per ton and praseodymium metal is 71 million yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 357,500 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide is 2 million yuan/ton; praseodymium oxide is 415,000 yuan/ton; and neodymium oxide is 357,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 4.575 million yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 2 million yuan per ton.

Recently, the price of some rare earths has risen, the domestic rare earth market is in general, the price trend of most commodities in the rare earth market has risen, and the import of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium products has been limited by Myanmar’s mines. Market participants are more optimistic about the price of medium and heavy rare earths. Holders are reluctant to sell them, and the price of dysprosium and terbium series has continued to rise. Recently, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products has improved, and the supply in the field is normal. Light rare earth prices have recently risen. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Recently, the rare earth market has turned to the seller’s market. The manufacturers have reasonable control over sales and are reluctant to sell. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is tight, the price trend of rare earth market is rising, large enterprise groups are reluctant to sell in the near future, the market of rare earth has improved, but the major manufacturers are cautious about the pricing of products. Recently, rare earth imports have declined, domestic enterprises are reluctant to sell, and some prices in the rare earth market have risen.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. Prior to this, Anhui Province jointly issued a special action document to crack down on rare earth blacks. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw mineral resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the rare earth industry has been trading well.

Rare earth analysts from business associations expect that the recent stringent domestic environmental protection efforts will not decrease, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s export restrictions and reduced supply will provide some favorable support for the rare earth industry, but the recent rare earth market transactions are limited, and rare earth products are expected to rise slightly.

On June 10, the PX commodity index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 11th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant put into operation, and other units operated steadily for the time being. The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On June 10, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 22 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 862-864 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 881-883 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable.

On June 7, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell to 53.26 U.S. dollars per barrel in July, a decline of 0.73 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures prices fell to 62.29 U.S. dollars per barrel in August, a decline of 1.00 U.S. dollars. crude oil prices declined, which lost some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of paraxylene market was temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has been stabilizing, PTA price has been stabilizing for 11 days. The average offer price in East China is raised near 5500-5600 yuan/ton. As of 10 days, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 91%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 87%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market price shocks. It is expected that the price of PX market will be low in the later period.