According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on September 23 was 94.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.23% from the highest point of 111.51 (2021-11-03) in the cycle, and up 14.04% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market from September 11-23 was lower than that in the domestic market, with a small range. On the 11th, the mainstream market quotation was about 15542.86 yuan/ton, while on the 23rd, the main quotation was 15471.43 yuan/ton, a decline of only 0.46%. The water treatment plants in the main domestic production areas have normal production, adequate inventory, stable downstream demand, small changes in the overall quotation, and weak stability.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business society, the acrylonitrile market reported 9830 yuan/ton on September 23, a 2.93% increase compared with the spot market price of 9550 yuan/ton on September 11. Recently, the market situation of acrylonitrile is generally firm, the operating rate is basically stable, and the overall starting rate is 60% to 70%. Since the middle of August, the price of raw propylene has risen in shock, and then it has been operated in an integrated manner. However, the downstream stores are slightly stocking up before the National Day holiday, and the merchants’ offers are firm; According to the analysis, the current cost and demand of acrylonitrile have certain support, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to be strong in the short term.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business society, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8733.33 yuan/ton as of September 23, up 11.23% from the average price of domestic acrylic acid market of 7833.33 yuan/ton on September 11, up 7.82% from the price on August 23, and down 37.32% year on year in a three-month cycle., It also fell 46.35% compared with the same period last year. At present, the raw propylene market is in consolidation and operation, and the cost support is still available. Some enterprises in the supply side are overhauling, and the operating rate of the acrylic acid market is declining. However, the demand side is flat, the buying is average, and the early inventory is more digested. The market negotiation atmosphere is mild, and the transaction price is large, stable and small; It is expected that the acrylic acid market will stabilize in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business society, the average domestic LNG price on September 23 was 6488 yuan/ton, up 9.41% from the average domestic price of 5930 yuan/ton on September 11, of which the highest stage price was 6828 yuan/ton on September 20, forming the largest increase of 15.14% in this stage; However, in recent days, the price center has moved downward. The rise in feed gas prices, pipeline maintenance and pre holiday inventory discharge caused LNG to rise first and then fall. At present, the LNG market is weak and the liquid level pressure is high. As the National Day holiday approaches, the expressway will be restricted, and the liquid plants are willing to reduce prices and discharge stocks. It is expected that the price of LNG will continue to fall in the short term.

Future forecast: Since the middle and late September, the general rising trend of the cost of some raw materials for water treatment products in the first ten days has weakened, and the current price remains stable. Polyacrylamide manufacturers in the main production areas in China are operating normally, downstream demand is stable, and inventory is sufficient. Logistics will be affected during the National Day holiday, which may lead to the concentration of orders a few days before the festival. The overall price change should not be large.

The purchase follow-up was insufficient. On the 22nd, the national mainstream phenol market fell back from a high level. Although the current supply side continued to be tight, and some factories were also stocking up before the festival, the market continued to rise significantly, with greater downstream pressure. Department traders sold at a discount, and the actual on-site real order price declined. Recently, the operating rate has increased. Although the number of arrivals in October is limited in the statistics, it is difficult to predict the uncertain factors under the influence of the general environment after the festival. The contract shipment is nearing the end, and the market is mainly adjusted smoothly before the festival.

The offer of phenol in various markets nationwide is as follows:

Region, quotation, daily rise and fall

East China., 10650., – 100

Shandong region., 10950., 0

Yanshan surrounding area, 10850, – 50

South China., 10650., – 150

On September 21, the average price of TDI market in East China was 19450 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous working day, and the market was on the rise. According to the factory news, a factory in Shanghai has closed the order due to low inventory, and a large factory in the north has temporarily refused to take orders in the last ten days. The spot market continues to be tense. The seller has a strong attitude of closing the order, and the price is high. The downstream side has a wait-and-see attitude, and a small number of low price purchases follow up. The dominant position of the supplier is obvious. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 19000-19500 yuan/ton for domestic goods, and about 19500-1980 yuan/ton for Shanghai goods.

The short-term TDI market continued to operate at a high level, focusing on market supply and downstream follow-up.

Trend Chart of Average Acetone Price in National Mainstream Market

Today, some factories raised their listing prices by 100 yuan/ton again, which stimulated the market to go up. The growth of major acetone markets across the country was different, and most of them continued to go up. The spot supply on the market is still tight, and the holder cannot offer low prices, but he also intends to make profits by actively shipping. The terminal just needs to purchase, and the short-term acetone is expected to be strong.

The offer of acetone in major mainstream markets in China is as follows:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China, 5480., 50

Shandong., 5750., 150

Yanshan Prefecture., 5750., 150

South China., 5650., 50

1、 Price data

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners rose first and then fell this week. On September 18, the average price of Shandong market was 4201.50 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of 4201.50 yuan/ton on September 12.

On September 18, the petroleum coke commodity index was 326.78, unchanged from yesterday, 20.04% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and 388.53% higher than the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in the refinery rose first and then fell. The refinery’s shipment was OK. The downstream demand side procurement was supported, and the overall price of petroleum coke remained stable.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fluctuates. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve may significantly increase interest rates, making the dollar stronger again, depressing oil price estimates. In addition, the global economic recession is expected to continue to depress oil prices. The good news on the supply side of the oil market and the bad news on the demand side will continue to play a game. In particular, the trend of geopolitical tension is becoming more serious, and the oil price is subject to more interference factors, which will further aggravate the shock of the oil market.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke rose slightly this week; The price of metal silicon market decreased slightly; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of September 18, the price was 18903.33 yuan/ton; After the festival, the carbon market was highly motivated to replenish, the overall support for demand was good, and some refineries were under pressure due to typhoon.

The oil coke analyst of the business agency believes that: the international crude oil shocks this week, and the cost of oil coke is supported; After the festival, the carbon market was highly motivated to replenish, and the overall demand was well supported. Some refineries were under pressure due to the typhoon, and the refinery’s petroleum coke shipment was OK. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will be mainly adjusted in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, aniline was stable after rising this week. On September 9, the price in Shandong was 11400-11600 yuan/ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11700-12000 yuan/ton; On September 16, the price in Shandong was 11600-11800 yuan/ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12000-12300 yuan/ton, 1.95% higher than last week and 8.8% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

On the cost side, pure benzene: Affected by the typhoon weather, the arrival of ships at the port was delayed, and the shipment in Shandong was good, so pure benzene rose after the festival. However, the crude oil fell sharply, coupled with the softening of styrene, driving the center of gravity of pure benzene to weaken, and near the weekend, pure benzene fell back slightly. This week, the port inventory of pure benzene in East China increased by 5000 tons to 64600 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. On Friday (September 16), the price of pure benzene was 7750-7950 yuan/ton (the average price was 7817 yuan/ton), 0.64% higher than that of last week and 10.04% lower than that of the same period last year.

Nitric acid: cost support, downstream price rise, good for nitric acid price, domestic nitric acid continued to rise this week. The price was 2200 yuan/ton on September 9 and 2267 yuan/ton on September 16. The price was 3.03% higher than last week and 26.64% lower than the same period last year.

Pure benzene rose first and then fell, nitric acid rose, and the cost rose as a whole. The downstream demand is fair, the inventory of aniline manufacturers in the north is low, Jiangsu Yangnong in East China has not been restarted, and the contract of Nanhua is dominated, the spot supply of aniline market is tight, and the price continues to rise supported.

3、 Future market expectation

In terms of cost and pure benzene, Fuhaichuang and Hainan Refining&Chemical aromatics plants were restarted this week, and the operating rate of pure benzene increased; Under the influence of the typhoon, it is estimated that the number of ships arriving at Hong Kong next week is still low; And near the National Day holiday, downstream stock or support the price of pure benzene.

In terms of nitric acid, supported by cost and demand, it is expected that the short-term trend of nitric acid will be stronger.

Some aniline plants are still in parking, and the supply in the site is still tight in the short term. Downstream demand continues and the supply and demand side is favorable. On the whole, short-term aniline continued strong trend. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of aniline device dynamics on the price of aniline.

DOP price rose on September 15

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DOP price rose on September 15, and the DOP market recovered. On September 15, the DOP price was 10187.50 yuan/ton, up 2.13% from 9975 yuan/ton on September 14; On September 14, the DOP commodity index was 71.97, up 0.18 points from yesterday, down 36.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 113.46 (2021-08-04), and up 74.98% from the lowest point of 41.13 on April 7, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now). The price of raw materials rose, the cost of DOP rose, and the market of DOP rose.

Key points of analysis

The price of raw material isooctanol rose, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, and the cost of DOP rose; The price of downstream plastic PVC is stabilizing, and the demand is temporarily stable; The plasticizer’s downward pressure weakens and the upward momentum increases.

Future market expectation

The demand for rising costs is temporarily stable, the driving force for DOP to rise increases, and the downward pressure is weakened. It is expected that DOP prices will rise in a volatile way in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average market price of the manufacturers of petroleum asphalt in Shandong Province on September 14 was 4438 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a year-on-year increase of 29.51%. On September 14, the domestic asphalt futures market closed at 3674 yuan/ton, down 3.80%.

Asphalt futures mainly maintained weak decline, and the overall bearish intention was heavy. In terms of spot goods, the fundamentals of asphalt spot goods are slightly flat, the mainstream quotation in Shandong is stable and downward, and the refinery concentration increases significantly, so the inventory has increased. Downstream operators mainly purchase on demand, and the terminal demand is fair in the near future.

In the short term, the domestic asphalt market is mainly weak and volatile.

At the opening of the morning, Changchun chemical and Lihua yiweiyuan, the main domestic factories, once again increased by 100 yuan / ton. Due to the increasing cost pressure after the continuous increase of phenolketones before the festival, the factories returning to the market after the festival increased, but the downstream follow-up of returning to the market after the festival was limited, and the actual volume was seriously insufficient. From the downstream point of view, the rising trend is slowing down, mainly for bisphenol A contracts. However, at present, the social circulation resources of bisphenol A are limited, and the carriers are obviously not under pressure, and they can not come out at a low level. Pay close attention to the factory offer and on-site actual orders in the short term.

The quotation of bisphenol A in the domestic mainstream market today:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China, 13400., 50

Shandong, 13450, 100

On September 6, zinc price rose

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the zinc price rose on September 6, and the zinc market rose. On September 6, the average market price of zinc ingots in East China was 24876 yuan / ton, up 1.49% from 24510 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, up 8.96% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis

The data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange show that the inventory of zinc futures in Shanghai has continued to decline recently. On September 6, the inventory decreased to 49253 tons, falling to a new low in seven months. The inventory of zinc market decreased, and the momentum of zinc market increased.

Future forecast

Domestic zinc market inventory decreased, London zinc inventory increased, zinc market supply decreased slightly, and zinc price is expected to rise slightly in the future.