price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market remained stable at a low level in early September, with most spot prices of various brands remaining stable. As of September 9th, the benchmark price of Business Society PC hybrid is around 14250 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of September
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In September, domestic PC aggregation enterprises experienced narrow fluctuations in load, with a slight decline from 82% at the end of last month to 79%. The average weekly production level within the range is over 65000 tons, and the on-site supply is abundant. In terms of inventory, there is a high-level stalemate, and the pattern of abundant PC supply remains unchanged. At present, the scheduled rotation and parking of Lihua Yiwei Yuan’s blowing task and Wanhua Chemical Plant are coming to an end. At the same time, the load of Zhejiang Petrochemical is gradually returning, and the future supply is expected to continue to be loose. The shipment pressure of the aggregation plant remains unchanged, and the market supply side has poor support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A significantly rose in early September. Upstream phenol and acetone both showed a narrow increase, which has a certain boosting effect on bisphenol A. On the other hand, the inventory digestion of bisphenol A enterprises has slightly improved the pattern of loose supply. However, overall, the support effect of bisphenol A on the cost of PC is discounted due to the constraints of PC’s own supply and demand situation.
In terms of demand: Currently, PC is at the junction of traditional off-season and peak season, but downstream factory loads have not rebounded, inventory remains at a weak level of rigid demand, and there has been no early warehouse construction operation. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, it is difficult to improve the supply-demand contradiction within the range. In addition, with weak foreign trade orders, terminal enterprises are under pressure and are resistant to high priced sources of goods. On the other hand, the financial pressure on traders has increased synchronously, and there has been an increase in the practice of offering discounts and taking orders. The circulation speed of on-site goods is slow, and the trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
At the beginning of September, the domestic PC market remained low and sideways. The upstream bisphenol A market has risen, and the increase in cost value has a certain stabilizing effect on PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants remains stable with small fluctuations, and expectations for the future market are relaxed, while the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. Downstream demand has not increased significantly, and industry players are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the traditional peak season. At present, PC prices are at a historical low, and it is recommended to closely monitor the demand side consumption situation in the market.

Business Society: Supply and demand are weak, melamine market continues to be weak

This week, the melamine market did indeed continue its weak pattern, with an overall trend of weak supply and demand, and weak and stable price pressure. As of September 8th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5687.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to the beginning of this month (5662.50 yuan/ton).
The current melamine market mainly presents the following characteristics:
Overall weak consolidation of prices: As can be seen from the table, although some companies have raised their quotations, the domestic average price still fell by 0.54% month on month. The mainstream prices are generally low, with factory quotes in the East China region referring to 5130-5350 yuan/ton, and explicitly mentioning “partially negotiable”, indicating that there is room for discounts in actual transactions.
Continued weak demand: The market has a weak buying and selling atmosphere, with downstream companies mainly purchasing on demand and few new orders being transacted. This is mainly due to the sustained downturn in downstream industries such as real estate, which has led to flat demand in major consumer sectors such as artificial boards.
The industry’s operating rate remains relatively high, and enterprise inventory is under pressure: although the capacity utilization rate on September 5th decreased compared to the previous day (57.92%), overall the capacity utilization rate still fluctuates at a high level of around 58%. Under the combined effect of high operating rates and sluggish demand, some enterprises are facing pressure from inventory accumulation.
Poor production profit: Industry data shows that the production profit margin is already negative (-1.38%), and expectations continue to decline. This indicates that many companies are in a loss making state at the current price level.
The price of raw material urea has decreased: The upstream raw material urea price has slightly decreased. As of September 8th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1703.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% compared to the beginning of this month (1712.50 yuan/ton). The weakening of support for the cost of melamine has also dragged down market sentiment from the cost side.
In the short term, the positive factors for the melamine market are limited, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate weakly. The core contradiction in the market lies in the imbalance between high supply levels and weak downstream demand. If there is no significant improvement on the demand side, it cannot be ruled out that prices may continue to decline slightly. We need to pay attention to whether downstream construction after the end of autumn can bring about a rebound in demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 5, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 5983 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 6100 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.91%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, showed a trend of first falling and then stabilizing. At the beginning of the week, some factories and suppliers in the n-butanol market in Shandong Province lowered their n-butanol shipment prices by around 50-150 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the overall focus of negotiations in the n-butanol market was on consolidating at a lower level, and there was no significant fluctuation in the market. As of September 5th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region is around 5900-6100 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of supply and demand: During the week, the pressure on the supply side of n-butanol was still acceptable, with low inventory levels in the market and active shipments from factories. Downstream demand for n-butanol showed caution, with downstream demand seeking to replenish at low prices. The overall inquiry atmosphere was low-end, and low transaction performance was still good. The transmission between n-butanol supply and demand was relatively stable.
In terms of cost: This week, the overall market situation of propylene in Shandong has been fluctuating with a narrow upward adjustment. On September 5th, the reference price of propylene was 6678.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.53% compared to September 1st (6643.25 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is quiet and moderate, and the cost side still provides narrow support to the market. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly operate smoothly, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

Since early September, the price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market has fluctuated and risen. As of September 5th, the mainstream self raising price for tank discharge in East China ports has increased from 8200-8300 yuan/ton to around 8450-8550 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market has increased from 8050-8150 yuan/ton to 8300-8400 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton. The spot ex factory price represented by Lihua Yi in the Shandong market has also increased from 8000 yuan/ton to the current 8250 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.13%.

Supply reduction
The direct factor for this round of price increase still comes from the supply side, with unplanned reductions in the East China region. Among them, Zhejiang Petrochemical experienced a malfunction and reduced its load at the end of August, and plans to overhaul a set of equipment for about 10 days in mid September; At the same time, a line of Sinochem Quanzhou will start parking in early August and may stop completely in mid September; Shanghai SECCO maintains a set of equipment in operation; Sinopec is maintaining the operation of 2-3 sets of facilities, with approximately 70% currently in operation.
According to statistics, as of September 4th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories has dropped to 72.85%, a decrease of -1.12% compared to the same period last week. The weekly output is about 81500 tons, a decrease of 1200 tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 42800 tons, an increase of 0.120 tons from last week. Under low inventory conditions, there is a decrease in supply, which provides an opportunity for the propylene market to rise.
Stable demand:
The overall performance of the demand side in September is relatively stable. Although the production of acrylic fiber and ABS has temporarily decreased, other industries such as acrylamide have shown improvement, and the traditional peak season and pre holiday stocking expectations still have some support. As of September 5th, the load reduction or shutdown of the northern unit resulted in an ABS capacity utilization rate of 69.0%, which was -1.8% higher than last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 60.66%. Daqing Petrochemical is undergoing maintenance, and Jimeng Acrylic Fiber has reduced its load, which is nearly 15% lower than last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity is 54.97%, an increase of 1.36% compared to last week, and the units in Shandong and Henan have increased or restarted.
Cost support:
Recently, the high price of upstream propylene has led to a further increase in the production cost of acrylonitrile, which has also to some extent driven up the market. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 9006 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 1.35%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -685 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -49 yuan/ton.
In the future forecast, the acrylonitrile market is expected to experience a preference atmosphere of high cost, low inventory, and reduced supply in the first half of September. However, the above positive support is limited and variable, and coupled with insufficient follow-up of long-term demand, the improvement of market supply and demand relationship is still difficult to sustain. In the second half of the month, the northern maintenance facilities will gradually resume, and at the same time, the demand for stocking up before the National Day holiday will also be activated. The news is mixed, and the market may once again fall into a stalemate.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, starting from September 1st, the hydrogen peroxide market has weakened, with a main decline. On September 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 703 yuan/ton, and on September 4th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.9% in price.

Negative pressure on hydrogen peroxide market weakens
Starting from September, the terminal demand in the printing and papermaking industry has declined, and some manufacturers of hydrogen peroxide are still stopping for maintenance. The supply pressure has decreased, and there is a long short game, resulting in weak hydrogen peroxide prices. As of September 4th, the average price in the domestic market has dropped to around 690 yuan/ton. The market transactions are average and the market is declining.
The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid September, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry will be sluggish, and the pressure on hydrogen peroxide supply will still exist, resulting in a weak market in the future.

Under the support of tight supply, the melamine market has indeed shown a trend of rebounding from decline to rise. As of September 2nd, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5675.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% compared to the beginning of this month (5662.50 yuan/ton).

1、 Price trend:
The price trend of melamine in August can be described as fluctuating. The domestic melamine market fluctuated in July.
Early October: The market continued the weakness of July, and prices were under pressure at one point.
Mid month: There was a noticeable rebound. This is mainly due to the sharp contraction of the supply side: affected by the continuous high temperature weather, the equipment in major production areas such as Sichuan and Anhui passively reduced load, and the overall load rate of the industry fell to about 40% at one point (mid August data). The tight supply has led to sustained low inventory in the market, and some manufacturers have adopted a strategy of controlling quantity and accepting orders, driving prices to rise accordingly.
Late to present: Market sentiment tends to be cautious, and prices have entered a stable consolidation stage. With the restart of some maintenance facilities, the capacity utilization rate has significantly rebounded from its low point (as of August 28th, the capacity utilization rate has risen to 58.5%), and the increase in supply has eased the previous tense situation. At the same time, there has been no strong recovery on the demand side, resulting in a lack of sustained upward momentum for prices and an overall trend towards stability.
2、 Supply side:
The changes in the melamine market in August were mainly driven by changes in the supply side. During the month, the industry’s operating rate plummeted to 44.32% (the lowest level in nearly three years), and daily production decreased significantly by over 30%. This is the most core factor driving the price to stop falling and rise again. Subsequently, with the planned restart of some maintenance facilities, the capacity utilization rate rebounded from a low level, and the supply side’s support for prices weakened to some extent.
3、 Demand side:
The demand side has not provided strong upward momentum for prices:
In terms of domestic demand: Although the demand for the main downstream board industry has slightly rebounded, it is still constrained by the sluggish real estate industry, and the overall recovery is limited.
In terms of foreign trade, the export market has shown lackluster performance, with limited new orders. Although the cumulative export volume from January to May was 263100 tons, a slight increase of 0.34% year-on-year, the adjustment of international tariff policies has also affected exports.
Downstream procurement should be cautious and focus on on-demand procurement.
4、 Cost side:
Weakening of raw material urea prices: As the core raw material of melamine, urea prices showed an overall downward trend throughout August. As of September 2nd, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1707.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% compared to the beginning of this month (1712.50 yuan/ton). The decline in urea prices has weakened the cost support for melamine.
Despite the decline in raw material prices, the rebound in melamine prices is limited, and the industry as a whole is still in a loss making state. As of August 28th, the production profit margin was -1.38%, although slightly narrowed from the previous week’s -1.40%, it did not fundamentally improve. The operational pressure on enterprises remains significant.
5、 Future prospects
For the melamine market in September, it is expected to show a pattern of stable to weak and fluctuating consolidation:
Supply side: Capacity utilization is expected to continue to rise slightly. If the operating rate continues to recover, market supply will increase, which may suppress prices.

On the demand side, the traditional peak consumption season of “golden September and silver October” is the biggest expectation of the market. If the demand for downstream industries such as sheet metal can increase as scheduled, it will become a key driving force for price increases. On the contrary, if the demand recovery falls short of expectations, the market will find it difficult to shake off the weak trend.
Cost side: Urea prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern within a narrow range, and the cost impact on melamine may be relatively neutral.
In summary, the melamine market achieved a rebound in August due to the tightening of supply beyond expectations. But with the gradual recovery of supply and the lackluster performance on the demand side, the market’s upward momentum weakened and entered a stage of stable consolidation. Whether the market can break out of the consolidation pattern in September largely depends on whether the demand increment brought by the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” can arrive as scheduled. If demand can be effectively released, prices are expected to gain new upward momentum; If demand continues to be weak, the market will find it difficult to shake off a weak and volatile trend.

August has ended, and as of the end of the month, the domestic acrylonitrile market price has been fluctuating between 7800-8200 yuan/ton for three months. Overall, the acrylonitrile industry is still showing a weak balance this month, with controllable inventory and fluctuating market prices.

Both the supply and demand sides showed growth during the month, with the acrylonitrile and downstream ABS industries focusing on capacity expansion, while the downstream acrylic fiber industry maintained a high level of production. As of the end of the month, one line of Jilin Petrochemical’s 260000 ton new plant has been stably produced, and the total effective production capacity of acrylonitrile in China has reached 5.319 million tons per year; The second 75000 tons/year ABS production line in Shandong has achieved stable production, and the ABS production capacity base has been adjusted to 10.23 million tons.
At the same time, due to the maintenance and active reduction of production in acrylonitrile factories, the supply increment has been controlled, but the supply-demand gap has increased first and then decreased.
However, the current acrylonitrile industry still has overcapacity. According to current demand data calculations, it is estimated that the domestic consumption and total export volume for the whole year of 2025 may still be less than 4 million tons. This means that the premise for the acrylonitrile market to maintain a weak balance is still to actively control the supply side, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate must be maintained at around 75% or below.
In addition, long-term production losses have forced acrylonitrile factories to voluntarily reduce production. Since 2025, major factories in East China such as Sinopec and Shanghai Saike have maintained low load operation at around 50-70%. Although Zhenhai Refining and Chemical has emerged as a new production capacity, it has benefited from favorable geographical conditions in its consumption concentration area, and its production and sales have been relatively stable since its launch. In contrast, Sinochem Quanzhou has halved its operation.
Next month, it is expected that the supply-demand gap will further narrow due to ongoing maintenance of facilities in the northern region and no significant increase in supply plans in the eastern region. At the same time, downstream consumption may improve during the traditional peak season. However, due to subjective adjustments in the supply side, variables still exist, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile industry will remain in a weak equilibrium state. On this basis, the market stalemate will also continue.

The game between macro expectations and weak fundamentals, in August, domestic nickel prices showed an overall volatile pattern, with prices rising first and then falling, repeatedly fluctuating and falling back. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on August 29th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 122516 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 1.13% for the whole month, but still a year-on-year decrease of 6.97%. Market long and short factors are intertwined, with macroeconomic policy expectations and loose liquidity providing support, while high inventory and weak actual demand limit the upward space for prices.

1、 Price Trend Review
At the beginning of the month (8.1-8.8): Nickel prices first rose and then remained stagnant, with spot prices reported at 122316 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.96%. Market sentiment is influenced by macroeconomic policy expectations, but lacks clear drivers of fundamentals.
Mid month (8.9-8.15): Nickel prices surged and fell back, reaching 121850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.58%. At the beginning of the week, the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the United States pushed up the price, but high inventory and weak demand for stainless steel led to a decline.
At the end of the month (8.16-8.29), nickel prices fluctuated and weakened before rebounding, ultimately reaching 122516 yuan/ton. Powell’s dovish remarks, favorable domestic policies, and the weakening of the US dollar jointly drove a rebound, but the demand side still showed weakness.
2、 Macro factors: intertwining long and short, expectations dominate
Overseas macro environment:
The weak economic data in the United States, significantly lower than expected non farm employment, rising unemployment rate, and strengthened expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates (the market expects a 25 basis point rate cut in September and December respectively).
The fluctuation of the US dollar index has intensified, rising first and then falling, affecting the pressure and rebound of nickel prices.
The United States has imposed tariffs on multiple countries, escalated global trade frictions and met with Russia, eased geopolitical tensions, and alternately affected market sentiment.
Domestic policy support:
Policies such as trade in of consumer goods and equipment renewal continued to advance, and the Ministry of Finance allocated 69 billion yuan of special treasury bond funds.
The State Council meeting emphasized the expansion of domestic demand, and the Ministry of Commerce proposed measures to promote service exports and boost market confidence.
The industrial data is stable, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7% in the added value of industries above designated size in July, but the direct impact on nickel prices is limited.
3、 Supply and demand fundamentals: high inventory and weak demand suppress prices
Supply side:
Global nickel inventories remain high, with LME inventories increasing to 209676 tons and Shanghai nickel inventories increasing to 21905 tons, indicating an unchanged pattern of oversupply.
The price of nickel ore in Indonesia has slightly increased, while the price of low-grade ore in the Philippines has decreased due to an increase in shipping volume.
Demand side:
Stainless steel field: Production in August increased by 2.29% month on month, but still decreased by 1.64% year-on-year, with slow destocking and cautious terminal procurement. On August 29th, the benchmark price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13075.00 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.04% from early August, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
In the field of new energy, the production of ternary precursors increased by 5.71% month on month, but the growth rate is expected to slow down to 5.4% in August, and the marginal demand growth has weakened. The spot market sees an increase in demand purchases at low prices, but overall transactions are mainly wait-and-see, with insufficient sustainability.
4、 Future prospects

In the short term, nickel prices will still be affected by both macro expectations and weak fundamentals
Supporting factors: The expected increase in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the weakening of the US dollar, the continued strength of domestic policies, and the approaching traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” may bring bottom support and temporary rebound.
Suppressing factors: high global inventory, weak demand for stainless steel, slowing growth in new energy, and uncertainty in trade frictions will limit the upward space for prices.
Overall judgment: Nickel prices are expected to continue their volatile pattern, and breakthroughs will depend on clearer policy signals or fundamental improvements, such as inventory depletion and significant demand recovery.

Recently, aluminum prices have fluctuated horizontally, with slight fluctuations on August 28th. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 28, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20746.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the market average price of 20596.67 yuan/ton on August 1.

Aluminum ingot inventory situation
As of August 28th, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major regions of China was 610000 tons, an increase of 24000 tons from 586000 tons on August 18th.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices showed an “N” shaped trend in August. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 78371.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price rose to 79585 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 1.55% and a year-on-year increase of 6.23%.
According to the current chart of Shengyi Society, the spot price of copper in August was basically higher than the futures price, and the main contract is the expected price two months later. The expected future price may be under pressure.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory slightly increased in September. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 155000 tons, up 9.35% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, the market has very strong expectations for the Fed’s September interest rate cut, with a probability of approaching 90% or even 95% at one point. Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting was interpreted as dovish, reinforcing this expectation. At the end of July, the US “232″ investigation was launched, and the results showed that no tariffs would be imposed on refined copper, but a 50% tariff would be imposed on copper and other products. This policy has become relatively clear, reducing its short-term disturbances.
Supply side: Codelco in Chile has lowered its 2025 production forecast to 1.34-13.7 million tons (approximately 30000 tons lower than the March forecast). The Escondida copper mine in Chile (accounting for 5% of the global production) has reduced production by 15% due to rainstorm. The land transfer of a large copper mining development project in Arizona, USA, has been temporarily blocked. The refined copper production in July was 1.27 million tons, a decrease from the record breaking 1.3 million tons in June. The refined copper production in July was 1.27 million tons, a decrease from the record high of 1.3 million tons in June. The import volume of recycled copper decreased year-on-year (by 2.36% in July), and the price difference between refined and scrap narrowed, resulting in import losses.
Downstream: Although facing the drag of the real estate industry, the investment plan for the power grid has exceeded 825 billion yuan (year-on-year growth), and the new energy sector (photovoltaics, wind power, new energy vehicles) maintains high growth rates, all of which provide a solid foundation for copper demand. The production of household air conditioners in July was slightly better than expected.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have risen more or fallen less in September, and there is a high probability that copper prices will rise in September this year.
In summary, this month, there have been frequent disruptions in global copper mine supply, pressure on China’s smelting sector due to extremely low processing fees, and overall low domestic inventories in China. The supply side has shown a pattern of “tightening at the mining end and regional tension in refined copper supply”. In terms of demand, the demand in the power grid and new energy sectors remains strong, while traditional real estate is weak. The peak consumption season of “Golden September and Silver October” is approaching, but attention should be paid to the failure or less than expected magnitude of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate and become stronger.