Asphalt prices increased significantly after New Year’s Day. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong region before the holiday was 2940 yuan/ton, and on the 6th, the ex factory price in Shandong region was 3130-3140 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.7%. The core driving force behind this round of price increases is the US Venezuela relationship, as the export of Venezuela’s Mari crude oil, which is highly dependent on domestic refined asphalt raw materials, is hindered, leading to pressure on refinery raw materials and supply contraction.
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In mid December 2025, the United States upgraded its relations with Venezuela, which hindered the export of crude oil from Mali and made it difficult to recover in the short term. In terms of production capacity, the total domestic asphalt production capacity is 71.4 million tons, with local refining accounting for 59% (41.85 million tons), making it the main supplier. In 2025, China imported 22.47 million tons of Mari crude oil and diluted asphalt, while the production of locally refined asphalt was 15.558 million tons during the same period. Mari’s supply directly determines the release of local refining capacity.
On the supply side, the inventory of Di Lian Ma Rui is only supported until February 2026, with a sharp decline in low-priced raw materials thereafter. Combined with the off-season demand in the first quarter, it is expected that the asphalt production in the first quarter will be 3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%. The contraction of supply is the core driving force behind this round of price increases, and the main contract for asphalt in the previous period strengthened synchronously, further confirming the expectation of supply contraction.
Data shows that Venezuela’s crude oil asphalt yield is significantly ahead. Although Marui crude oil is a high sulfur and ultra heavy variety, it has the advantages of low price, low markup, high yield, and high added value, making it the optimal choice for local refining. Other heavy crude oils have lower yields and higher procurement costs. The current premium for Mari is $13 per barrel, with a price difference of $10 per barrel (equivalent to $480 per ton) compared to Canadian Cold Lake crude oil. Mari’s supply interruption will push up refinery costs.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the tight supply of raw materials and geopolitical premiums support a strong asphalt price, but attention should be paid to event fluctuations. Focus on three major variables in the medium to long term: the trend of the United States towards Venezuela, the recovery of Venezuela’s crude oil production and exports, and the procurement of substitute raw materials by domestic refineries. In addition, OPEC+’s suspension of production in the first quarter will support the global crude oil market, indirectly affecting asphalt costs, and the subsequent situation needs to be continuously monitored.
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