Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly in October

Price trend:

According to the Business Society’s commodity market analysis system, as of October 29, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was reported at 122,116 yuan per ton, showing a slight monthly decline of 0.31% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.06%. Throughout the month, the price trend was influenced by both policy expectations and the realities of supply-demand fundamentals, resulting in overall narrow fluctuations.
Indonesia’s Mining Policy Adjustment: The validity period of mining quotas has been shortened from three years to one year, sending a clear signal of the government’s strengthened supply regulation. This policy change initially sparked expectations of supply tightening after the holiday period, driving nickel prices up by 1.22%.
Improved International Economic and Trade Relations: The positive progress in high-level economic and trade dialogues and follow-up consultations between China and the United States has effectively alleviated concerns about the escalation of trade frictions, providing support to market sentiment.
Positive economic data both domestically and internationally: China’s GDP maintained steady growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters, while the U.S. CPI data fell below expectations, sparking interest rate cut forecasts, collectively forming a relatively favorable macroeconomic environment.
Supply side:
Cost support emerges: The Indonesian nickel ore reference price rose by $40.33 per dry ton month-on-month, reflecting tight nickel ore supply and providing bottom support for nickel prices. The Indonesian Nickel Price Index (INPI) shows stable or rising prices for nickel processing products, aimed at maintaining nickel price stability.
Inventory pressure is significant: LME nickel inventories surged by 20,394 tons within the month to hit a record high of 251,706 tons, while SHFE nickel inventories rose sharply by 6,616 tons to 31,433 tons. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, exerting downward pressure on nickel prices.
Import pressure persists: In September, ferro-nickel imports surged by 47.60% year-on-year, driven primarily by increased supplies from Indonesia and Brazil, exacerbating domestic oversupply expectations.
Demand side:
The stainless steel sector remains sluggish: The industry faces a “peak season without peak performance” dilemma, with weak transactions and continuous price declines. On October 29, the benchmark price of stainless steel on Business Society was 12,900 yuan per ton, down 1.19% for the month. Reduced production by multiple steel mills has intensified the weakening demand for nickel.
The new energy sector is poised for long-term growth but faces short-term pressure: In September 2025, the installation volume of ternary batteries decreased by 10% year-on-year, with market share shrinking to 17.5%. The cost advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries continues to squeeze nickel demand. In 2026, the preferential purchase tax policy for new energy vehicles will phase out, leading to an expected slowdown in sales growth. However, breakthroughs in all-solid-state battery technology may drive long-term demand for high-nickel ternary materials, providing potential support for nickel prices.
Market Outlook:
In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in a fluctuating pattern: upward constraints include global high inventories and persistently growing supply, while downward support comes from rising raw material costs and long-term demand expectations for new energy.