The post-season market presents a pattern of “favorable supply declines, price stagnation is temporary”. The expectation of supply contraction brought about by local equipment repairs in the previous period has been largely digested by the market, while downstream demand recovers slowly, leading to insufficient market mobility, and prices enter a narrow consolidation phase.
| Melamine |
1. Market dynamics and price performance
1. Price movement:
Post-holiday market stabilization: as of January 5, the melamine base price of the company is 5,637.50 yuan / ton, flat with the beginning of this month, relatively to the end of December 2025 level is basically flat, with a narrow adjustment of slightly ± 50 yuan / ton in some regions.
The “priceless without market” characteristic is that although the quotation remains stable, the actual transaction activity of the market is general, and the current price acceptance is limited downstream, mainly for small orders.
2. Supply:
At the end of December 2025 and during the New Year, some of the equipment undergoing maintenance (such as Shandong, Xinjiang, etc.) has gradually resumed production, and the industry’s overall start-up load rate has recovered from about 65% before the holiday to 70%-72%. With the recovery of supply, the market’s pre-season concerns about supply tensions have dissipated.
3. Cost side:
The price of the main raw material urea also showed a stable and moderate weakness after the festival, as of January 5, the business unit urea benchmark price was 1,725.00 yuan / ton, flat with the beginning of this month. The cost support role of melamine is limited.
4. Demand:
Major downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings are slow to resume work after the festival, the release of new orders is insufficient, and the procurement of melamine is more optimistic, mainly with digestive pre-festival inventory. There is no significant highlight in the international market demand, and the number of new export orders is limited, which has failed to form an effective pull on the domestic market.
Core Market Analysis
“Positive recession” is the keyword: the main factor driving the slight uptick in the market in late December 2025 – the supply-side overhaul contraction – is over. The market driver has switched from “tightening supply expectations” to “a real supply-demand game”.
The game behind “stagnation”: prices did not fall immediately after the recovery of supply, mainly because:
Producers have a strong willingness to stabilize prices: most factories have no inventory pressure, and there is a good price mentality near the cost line.
Demand has not yet been fully falsified: the market is still expecting a phased replenishment before the Spring Festival downstream, forming a bottom support expectation.
Absolute price position: the current price is in the mid-low range of nearly six months, and the space for further decline is limited.
In the short term, the market is expected to continue the “range shock under weak supply and demand balance” pattern. The choice of the next direction for prices will depend on the evolution of the following key factors:
Summary: The melamine market is currently in the transition phase of “old drives are coming back, new drives are not coming”. Market participants are advised to be cautious, not to have excessive expectations of unilateral market conditions, operating on the band band, on-demand procurement is predominant, and closely follow the actual data changes of the above focus points.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |