Market situation

Recently, the melamine market has indeed faced the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand, leading to overall downward pressure on the market. However, in the long run, these negative factors will inevitably have a profound impact on the market. Affected by both sluggish demand and oversupply, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. As of August 5th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5812.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% compared to the beginning of this month (5825.00 yuan/ton).
Downstream demand is sluggish: Downstream industries related to melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in operating load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine.
The real estate industry, as one of the important application areas of melamine, continues to be sluggish, with new construction areas and development investments continuing to decline, further weakening market demand.
Upstream raw material prices: The domestic urea market continues to operate in a stable to weak trend, with some manufacturers experiencing a slight decrease in quotes, and the overall market transaction center shifting downwards. This has reduced the production cost of melamine, but has not effectively boosted market demand. As of August 5th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1812.50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
At present, the market atmosphere for melamine is average, and the market is operating weakly and steadily. Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. In the foreseeable future, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the supply and demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply, and the trend of low prices is difficult to change.
Inventory backlog: With the increase in supply and insufficient demand, some companies’ inventory begins to accumulate. This not only increases the operating costs of the enterprise, but may also have adverse effects on subsequent production and sales.
The export situation is severe: the export market for melamine is also facing severe challenges. On the one hand, the international market competition is fierce, and Chinese products need to face competition from other countries and regions; On the other hand, the international trade environment is complex and ever-changing, and uncertain factors such as trade barriers and technical barriers may affect the export of melamine.
Future outlook for supply-demand adjustment: With the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand (although currently sluggish), the supply-demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted to some extent in the future. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply.
Low price operation: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. The specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.
In summary, the current melamine market is indeed facing the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand. However, by strictly controlling production capacity, improving product quality, expanding application areas, and strengthening international cooperation, enterprises can actively respond to market challenges and achieve sustainable development.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on August 5th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 9590 yuan/ton, which was 520 yuan/ton lower than the market price of silicon metal # 441 on July 30th (10110 yuan/ton), a decrease of 5.14%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that as we enter August, the overall domestic silicon metal market has shown a continuous downward trend. Looking back at the end of July, the spot market price of silicon metal returned to the 10000 yuan mark, but the high level was difficult to hold. In the early days of the month, the focus of the silicon metal spot market continued to fall, with a daily decline of around 100-200 yuan/ton. As of August 5th, the market price of silicon metal 441 # in East China was referenced at 9500-9600 yuan/ton, Kunming was referenced at 9700-9900 yuan/ton, Huangpu Port was referenced at around 9400-9800 yuan/ton, Tianjin was referenced at 9300-9600 yuan/ton, Sichuan was referenced at 9200-9300 yuan/ton, and Shanghai was referenced at 9200-9300 yuan/ton. 9700~10000 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of supply and production: According to incomplete statistics, the metal silicon production in July 2025 increased by about 3.2% month on month at 338000 tons, and decreased by about 30.6% year-on-year. In August, it is expected that the production of silicon metal will continue to increase slightly. After entering the flood season, the overall operation and supply of the silicon metal market have also increased.
In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for metallic silicon is mainly for rigid procurement, while the downstream polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon markets are generally stable. The procurement of raw materials is cautiously observed and mainly based on demand.
Market analysis in the future
Overall, the rise in the silicon metal market this time is largely influenced by macro news, and the overall support provided by the supply and demand side to the market is average. The improvement in transmission between supply and demand is still limited. Business Society’s silicon metal data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic silicon metal market will mainly fluctuate, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has been consolidating at a low level recently. As of August 3, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 5862.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% from 5875.00 yuan/ton on July 28.

Supply side: Recently, the market for maleic anhydride has been consolidating at a low level. In the first half of the week, the bidding in Yantai was poor, and the factory execution price slightly fell. In the second half of the week, the bidding price in Yantai slightly increased, and the factory execution price followed suit. Some major factories stopped selling, and transactions were still possible under the limited signing operation. At present, the load of the three lines in Yantai is 70%, and the equipment in Hubei is malfunctioning. The plan is to restore it in mid to early August; Recently, downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers of maleic anhydride have maintained a stock of essential goods and are mainly observing the situation. As of July 29th, the factory price of solid anhydride in the maleic anhydride market in Shandong Province is around 5500 yuan/ton, while the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5000 yuan/ton.
Upstream: Recently, the n-butane market has risen, and as of August 3rd, the price in Shandong is around 4830 yuan/ton.
Downstream: Recently, the unsaturated resin market has been weakly consolidating, and the low price of styrene in the upstream has limited support for the cost of unsaturated resin. Currently, unsaturated resin is in the off-season of consumption, and downstream transactions are average, which has limited support for unsaturated resin and weak market conditions.
The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that the current downstream unsaturated resin market for maleic anhydride is weak, and the procurement of maleic anhydride is limited; The closure or suspension of sales in some factories has given a certain boost to the maleic anhydride market, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

The demand for contracts within the month is stable, but there is a shortage of spot buying gas, and the acrylonitrile market operated at a low level in July. The price of acrylonitrile in the East China port market dropped from 8200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8150 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price of short distance delivery in the Shandong market dropped from 8100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7950 yuan/ton at the end of the month.

Supply saturation and supply-demand imbalance
Supply side: The utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile plant capacity has increased. According to statistics, the production of acrylonitrile plants in China in July was 366800 tons, a month on month increase of 12.14%. The capacity utilization rate for this month is 75.94%, with a month on month increase of 5.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.86%.
Although the cross regional external mining of Jinfa has partially alleviated the pressure of excess supply in the East China region, it has also to some extent eased the pressure of market oversupply. However, the 400000 ton new unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical was put into operation in June, and the production capacity was further released and increased to 90% in July. The increase in production capacity has enhanced the overall supply capacity, but the market is still oversupplied, which has also suppressed market prices to a certain extent.
In addition, due to the poor profitability of acrylonitrile and its by-products, the production loss situation continues. At the end of the month, the operating load of the 400000 ton acrylonitrile unit at Zhenhai Refining and Chemical dropped to around 80%. The spot resources in the East China region are temporarily limited, and supplier quotations have slightly increased.
Demand side: The overall demand of downstream industries is in the off-season, among which the ABS industry, although its production increased in July, has limited demand for acrylonitrile; The operating load of the acrylamide industry may continue to decline, and downstream enterprises will purchase raw materials according to demand, resulting in weakened demand and suppressing the market price of acrylonitrile. Due to the expected increase in supply and weak demand, market participants generally have a pessimistic attitude, and businesses tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and purchase cautiously, further exacerbating the market downturn.
Market forecast: Jilin Petrochemical’s new equipment and storage are expected to be put into operation in early August, and the early-stage maintenance equipment of Jinfa has been restarted one after another, so the industry supply will continue to increase. On the downstream side, the supply-demand contradiction has not fundamentally improved, and there is a lack of sustained momentum for price increases, with relatively average demand support. On the cost side, the price of raw material propylene is currently relatively low and is expected to rebound in stages. Cost pressure is expected to rise again, but space is limited. Affected by this, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will mainly experience low-level fluctuations.

Aluminum prices have fluctuated downward this week

Aluminum prices have fluctuated horizontally this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20596.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% from the market average price of 20796.67 yuan/ton on July 25.
Fundamental Overview
Macro: The Federal Reserve meeting kept interest rates unchanged, which is in line with market expectations, and it is also the fifth consecutive time this year that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting has decided to keep interest rates unchanged.
According to social inventory data, the current social inventory of aluminum ingots is starting to recover, with a slight accumulation in recent times. On July 31st, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 544000 tons, an increase of 11000 tons from Monday and an increase of 34000 tons from last Thursday. ‌‌

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on July 30th, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was based on 10100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1370 yuan/ton or 15.81% compared to July 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 8730 yuan/ton).

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in July, the domestic silicon metal (# 441) market as a whole experienced a broad upward trend. During the month, the market prices of metallic silicon (# 441) in many regions of China have continuously adjusted upwards, and the overall focus of market negotiations has continued to rebound. This is also the first consecutive downturn in the market since the beginning of the year. By the end of July, the overall market price of silicon metal (# 441) had finally returned to the 10000 yuan mark, with a price increase of around 1000-1500 yuan/ton during the month. As of July 30th, the market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in East China is 10100-10300 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is 10000-10300 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 10100-10400 yuan/ton, in Tianjin it is 10000-10200 yuan/ton, in Sichuan it is 9600-9800 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it is 10400-10600 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of inventory: As of April, the overall silicon metal market has been in a slow destocking state. The overall destocking performance of the market in June and July was still good. According to incomplete statistics, as of July 24th, the reference social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was around 535000 tons, a decrease of 77000 tons from the end of the first quarter. Therefore, there has been an improvement in the overall inventory pressure in the current market.
Supply side: Silicon companies in the northern region have reduced production due to equipment, while the southern region has entered a period of abundant water. The overall pace of resuming production is normal, and market supply has decreased in the north and increased in the south, resulting in an overall increase in supply and output.
In terms of demand: Currently, downstream organic silicon enterprises mainly digest the inventory of raw materials in the early stage of metal silicon. In mid to late July, the overall production of organic silicon monomers decreased, and new orders for high priced raw materials were average. Polycrystalline silicon and aluminum silicon were mainly purchased on demand. In August, downstream production expectations have slightly decreased, and demand for metal silicon is expected to increase.
Macroscopically speaking, after the recent proposal of the “anti internal competition and industrial integration” initiative, the sentiment of the metal silicon market has improved, the overall self-discipline of the industry has increased, it has refused vicious competition, the mentality of industry players has improved, and macro news has boosted the recovery of market prices.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, with large stability and small fluctuations in supply and demand, and overall transmission is still acceptable. Business Society’s metal silicon data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon spot market will mainly adjust its operation, and specific attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand news and the impact of macro information on the market.

Price trend:

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on July 29th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 122683 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.81% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.03%.
Rising at the beginning of the month: The disturbance of Indonesia’s nickel ore quota policy, coupled with the decline in LME and domestic inventories, supported the short-term rebound of nickel prices.
Mid month oscillation: Trump’s tariff threat, rising macro risk aversion, coupled with weak demand, suppresses rebound momentum.
At the end of the month, there was a surge and a decline: the domestic “anti internal competition” policy stimulated the sentiment of industrial products. On July 24th, nickel prices hit a high point of the month, and the sentiment gradually dissipated. Recently, nickel prices have fallen sharply.
Macro level: Interweaving of long and short positions, intensifying market competition
Positive factors
Domestic policy support: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will launch a stable growth plan for the steel and non-ferrous industries, emphasizing the elimination of outdated production capacity and boosting market expectations for supply side reforms. The completion of negotiations on the China ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 has benefited the circulation of regional raw materials. The manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.7% in June, and the new order index expanded, indicating a marginal recovery in the manufacturing industry.
Overseas negative pressure suppression
US tariff shock (core negative): Trump announced the imposition of 15% -40% tariffs on multiple countries starting from August 1st, leading to a rise in market risk aversion. If Russia and Ukraine fail to reach an agreement, the United States may impose 100% tariffs and secondary sanctions on Russia, further disrupting global trade.
The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut has cooled down: the annual CPI rate rose to 2.7% in June, and the core CPI rose to 2.9%. The market’s probability of a rate cut in September has decreased from 65% to 58%, and the strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed metal prices.
Supply side: Indonesia’s policy game+loosening of mineral prices
Indonesian nickel ore quota: 360 million tons have been approved, but only 120 million tons were consumed in the first half of the year, weakening the willingness of mines to raise prices.
Supply recovery in the Philippines: With the end of the rainy season and an increase in nickel ore shipments, Chinese port inventories have accumulated. The FOB price for 1.3% grade nickel ore is $31 per wet ton, a month on month decline.
Cost side decline: Indonesia’s nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 1.8% in July, while the price of nickel ore in the Philippines weakened, resulting in an improvement in smelting profit margins.
Inventory changes: LME nickel inventory increased by 906 tons to 204912 tons during the cycle, while domestic Shanghai nickel inventory increased by 659 tons to 21880 tons during the cycle. Global inventory has shown significant growth, and the surplus pattern has not changed.
Demand side: Stainless steel off-season+new energy substitution suppression
Stainless steel industry: In July, high temperatures suppressed demand, resulting in a 2.87% decrease in production schedules for 43 stainless steel plants compared to the previous month, with limited support for nickel demand.
Policy support: Multiple departments are cracking down on “internal competition”. On July 29th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was 13017.50 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 1.9%, but inventory turnover is slow.
New energy (ternary batteries): Subsidies for new energy vehicles will continue, but the proportion of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries will increase, weakening the increase in nickel consumption.
Future outlook:
The nickel price is still dominated by macro and policy factors, and may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the Federal Reserve’s movements in August and the effectiveness of domestic policies.

This week, the domestic melamine market stabilized and remained stagnant. As of July 28th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5825.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06% compared to the beginning of this month (5887.50 yuan/ton).

Recently, the domestic melamine market has shown a weak consolidation trend, and there are multiple factors that contribute to the price game. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, upstream production enterprises stimulate market transactions by actively lowering their quotations (with low-end prices reaching the range of 5200-5400 yuan/ton), coupled with periodic replenishment of international orders, effectively digesting enterprise inventory levels and gradually reducing some low-priced sources to a reasonable range.
The decline in urea raw material prices has weakened cost support, coupled with the shortened order cycle of production enterprises, jointly suppressing the upward space of melamine prices. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in downstream demand, and processing companies generally adopt on-demand procurement strategies due to sufficient low-priced inventory and low operating rates in the early stage, leading to a “price sensitive” stalemate in the market. Under multiple factors, the melamine market is expected to maintain a weak balance in the short term, and the subsequent trend is expected to be weak.
The utilization rate of melamine production capacity has slightly increased this week. Under the support of orders on hand, the current shipping pressure of production enterprises is limited. But as orders are gradually delivered, market supply is expected to increase. Downstream resistance to high priced raw materials is evident, with low acceptance. To maintain shipments, manufacturers may need to adjust their pricing strategies and mindset.
The mainstream price of urea in the current market remains stable, but prices in some areas have loosened and declined. As of July 28th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1825.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% compared to the beginning of this month (1823.00 yuan/ton). The urea market has entered a wait-and-see stalemate. Although there is a demand for replenishment downstream, due to a cautious attitude, small order follow-up is mainly focused on. The pressure on the supply side remains unabated, with Nissan maintaining a high level. At the same time, the inverted international prices and weakened coal expectations have intensified the bearish sentiment in the market. However, with the support of pending orders from the factory and low social inventory, prices have temporarily stabilized. Under the game of various forces, it is expected that the short-term market will maintain a volatile and weak trend.
Overall, the melamine market lacks strong positive support. In the short term, relying on existing advance orders, the market will maintain a stalemate. However, as the orders are gradually digested, the supply and demand sides will once again engage in a game. The future price trend will depend on the dynamic changes in supply and demand, fluctuations in raw material costs, and the evolution of market participants’ mentality.

Last week (July 21-27, 2025), the upstream raw material of nylon filament, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam weekly settlement price, was lowered. The PA6 slicing market was weak and deadlocked, with prices continuing to decline slightly. Cost support weakened, and downstream enterprises held multiple rigid demand orders. The demand side did not improve, and the activity of on-site trading was poor, resulting in a weak decline in nylon filament market prices.

Nylon filament prices are weak and declining
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, last week (July 21-27, 2025), the price of nylon filament fell weakly. As of July 27, 2025, DTY (premium product) of nylon filament in Jiangsu region; 70D/24F) quoted 14320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a weekly decrease of 0.97%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) quoted 12050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, with a weekly decrease of 1.23%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 14900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous period and a weekly decline of 1.00%.
Insufficient support on the raw material side
In terms of cost: Last week (July 21-27, 2025), the spot market price of caprolactam was weak during the week. The weekly settlement price of caprolactam by Sinopec was 9050 yuan/ton (interest free for six-month acceptance), a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous period. The market price of nylon PA6 slices was weak and stagnant, with insufficient cost support. As of July 27, 2025, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society is 8950 yuan/ton, mainly due to weak price consolidation. During the week, the market price of high-speed spun nylon PA6 slices slightly decreased, with a weekly drop of 0.96%, mainly due to weak cost support.
Supply and demand: During the week, some nylon filament manufacturers have lowered their operating rates, resulting in a decline in overall market supply. However, industry inventory levels continue to increase, leading to poor performance on the supply side; The demand in the end market is weak, and some downstream manufacturers have reduced production or switched production, resulting in a decrease in demand for nylon filament. It is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, and many parties are following suit with rigid demand. Many industry players are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.
Future forecast
Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, the expectation for pure benzene is weak, and slice manufacturers have low enthusiasm for purchasing caprolactam. It is expected that the caprolactam market will be dominated by weak and low-level consolidation next week; In terms of PA6 slicing, cost support is limited, and the supply level of PA6 slicing market may continue to improve. Downstream market demand is weak, and it is expected that the market price of nylon PA6 slicing will weakly decline.
Supply and demand: July belongs to the off-season of traditional demand in the market, and coupled with the lack of signs of improvement in terminal market demand, downstream market procurement enthusiasm is not high. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for nylon filament market next month may decrease. If there is no significant improvement in demand, under the pressure of large inventory, some nylon filament manufacturers may have the possibility of reducing production capacity, while the industry continues to release new production capacity. Therefore, it is expected that the supply of nylon filament market will decrease next month.

Overall, both the upstream raw material caprolactam spot market and the nylon PA6 chip market are likely to continue to decline, with a lack of cost support and difficulty in improving downstream market demand. The demand side is dragging down market trends, and under the dual negative factors, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term nylon filament market price will mainly consolidate weakly.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices showed an “M” – shaped trend in July. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 80235 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 79538.33 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.87% and a year-on-year increase of 8.51%.
According to the current chart of Shengyi Society, the spot price of copper in July was basically higher than the futures price, and the main contract is the expected price two months later. The expected future price may be under pressure.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly in July. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 124775 tons, up 36.7% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, in early July, the Trump administration announced the decision to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1st, which caused the copper market to rise first and then fall in July. The current focus is on the 50% metal import tariff that the US will implement next Friday. The tariff rate is very high and the implementation window is very short, especially for copper products, which has not yet been fully clarified, causing a severe shock in the global copper market.
Supply side: Overseas mining disturbances continue, and traders are accelerating their shipments to the US before August 1st, resulting in tight spot supply. Copper concentrate spot TC continues to fluctuate in the negative range.
Downstream: The overall operating rate of cable companies remains stable, and home appliance sales are boosted by national subsidy policies and 618 promotions (refrigerators and air conditioners have performed well). The high production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to drive copper demand. However, in the current off-season of the industry, spot consumption is weak, and the off-season atmosphere on the demand side is deep, resulting in low actual purchasing sentiment downstream.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, copper prices have increased more or less in August in the past five years, and there is uncertainty in copper prices in August this year due to the impact of tariffs.
In summary, the current tight supply situation in overseas mining has not changed, and domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low. Coupled with the low social inventory of copper in Shanghai and active transactions in the spot market, the tight supply of goods and downstream replenishment at low prices have formed support. However, global macro uncertainty and policy turning points are approaching, and it is expected that copper prices will mainly experience strong fluctuations.