According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (9.15-9.19), with an average market price of 17050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17025 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.15%.

Entering the third week, the magnesium market as a whole showed a trend of oscillation before stabilizing: at the beginning of the week, factory quotations showed a moderate increase, but due to insufficient demand follow-up, it became difficult to close deals after the magnesium price was raised; In the middle of the week, driven by the rising prices of coal, ferrosilicon, and dolomite, the willingness of factories to raise prices became stronger, and their quotations were slightly increased accordingly. This week, export demand has decreased, and domestic users are also cautious in their procurement. Therefore, the trading volume of the magnesium market at high prices is relatively low, and the overall operation is maintaining a fluctuating and stable state.
Supply and demand side
In terms of supply, the overall supply of domestic magnesium smelting enterprises has maintained a stable trend without significant fluctuations. With the continuous rise of raw material and energy costs, enterprises are generally facing significant cost pressures. Against this backdrop, magnesium smelting enterprises have shown a strong willingness to raise prices, and market price support has significantly increased.
In terms of demand, the overall procurement volume has shown a significant downward trend compared to last week, and in terms of procurement category structure, the proportion of non national standard raw magnesium procurement has significantly increased, becoming the main component of this week’s procurement.
Raw material end
Recently, coal prices have shown a significant upward trend, and as a downstream product of coal, the price of blue charcoal has also slightly increased accordingly; At the same time, the ferrosilicon market is driven by raw material costs and demand growth, resulting in a significant upward trend in prices. Due to the combined impact of multiple factors, the overall cost of related industries has significantly increased.
comprehensive analysis
This week, the market overall showed a stable trend, with upstream suppliers showing strong intentions to raise prices, while downstream buyers held a cautious attitude, and both sides were in a price game stage. Expected price fluctuations within the range.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on September 22, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was based on 9700 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton or 2.65% compared to September 14 (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9450 yuan/ton), and an increase of 340 yuan/ton or 3.63% compared to September 1 (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9360 yuan/ton).

The metal silicon market has steadily risen this week
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the domestic silicon metal market has shown a strong upward trend in recent days. As of September 22nd, the price of 553 # silicon and 441 # silicon in East China Oxygen Technology Co., Ltd. was 9400-9600 yuan/ton and 9600-9800 yuan/ton, respectively, with a weekly increase of 200-300 yuan/ton. The price of 3303 # silicon was 10400-10600 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 100-200 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
In terms of construction, the overall construction of the silicon metal market remains stable
The operating rate of silicon metal in Xinjiang region is around 69%, which has increased compared to the previous week. At the beginning of the month, Xinjiang has plans to continue increasing the number of furnaces, and it is expected that the operating rate will continue to increase. The overall operating rate of metallic silicon in the northwest region is around 77%, unchanged from the previous week. The overall operating rate of silicon metal in Yunnan region is 65%, which is basically the same as the previous week. The overall operating rate of metallic silicon in Sichuan region is around 52%, slightly lower than the previous week. Some silicon companies have reduced production in the early stage, while most silicon companies have maintained stable operating rates. It is expected that the operating rate in Sichuan will remain stable in the later stage.
Supply side: The current market supply is stable and expected to increase in the later stage
At present, the overall operation of metal silicon equipment is stable, and the overall market supply remains stable. It is expected that some production capacity in Xinjiang will have new plans by the end of September, so it is expected that the overall supply of metal silicon will increase by the end of the month.
On the demand side: The Golden Nine effect is beginning to show, and downstream demand is increasing narrowly
At present, the downstream polycrystalline silicon production is basically stable, while the organic silicon production is stable with small fluctuations, and the overall demand for metallic silicon remains stable. The operating rate of aluminum silicon alloy enterprises has maintained a narrow upward trend, and the traditional “golden nine” effect has initially emerged. Downstream orders have slightly improved, promoting the increase in operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises and boosting the demand for raw materials.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the supply side is expected to increase. The loose supply situation in the market continues, and downstream demand is stable with a narrow rise. The overall supply and demand transmission is still acceptable. The metal silicon data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range. In the later stage, it is still necessary to pay more attention to the operating situation of silicon enterprises and the changes in supply and demand.

During the week, the supply in the East China region decreased, while the maintenance facilities in the north gradually resumed. At the same time, some manufacturers increased their external sales, resulting in overall supply saturation. In addition, the demand for spot goods continued to be insufficient, leading to a decline in supplier offers. As of September 19th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 8300-8400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is 8250-8350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week.

Supply increase
East China region, supply reduction; In the northern market, supply has increased. Overall, the utilization rate of production capacity has increased, the output has increased, and the overall supply is relatively abundant.
According to statistics, as of September 18th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 72.68%, an increase of 0.78% compared to the same period last week. The weekly output was about 82800 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is around 41000 tons, unchanged from last week.
Limited incremental demand:
This week, the demand for acrylonitrile in major downstream industries has shown an increase, with ABS capacity utilization rate of 69.8%, a decrease of -0.2% compared to last week. However, Yulong has expanded its production capacity by 300000 tons and put a new plant into operation, with a total ABS production capacity base of 10.49 million tons per year; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 66.12%, and the load capacity of Jilin Petrochemical’s acrylic fiber plant has increased from 30% to around 60%; Acrylamide production capacity utilization rate: 56.46%,+0.88% compared to last week.
Continued cost support:
The cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production has not changed much during the cycle. As of September 18th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton from last weekend’s 6700 yuan/ton. At the same time, the price of acrylonitrile fluctuated and fell, and the production loss situation worsened again this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 9000 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -0.27%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -589 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of -115 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the supply in the north will increase, while the demand increment is limited, especially with spot buying maintaining a rigid demand state. The market will fall temporarily, but considering cost pressure and future stocking expectations, the market’s downward space in the short term is still limited.

Since September, asphalt prices have been fluctuating downwards due to various factors. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong region was 3680 yuan/ton on September 1st, and as of the 18th, the ex factory price in Shandong region was 3630 yuan/ton.

Supply pressure still exists in the northern region, with high social inventory and weak market sentiment. Some major refineries are still facing shipment pressure, and low-priced resource transactions are relatively smooth. The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy-duty asphalt enterprises was 34.4%, a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous period. After a small round of decline this week, the market gradually stabilized.
As the National Day holiday approaches, the short-term demand for asphalt has moderately rebounded. This week, 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers shipped a total of 455000 tons of samples, an increase of 14.6% compared to the previous week. The increase is more significant in North and East China regions, where refineries mostly execute pre contract shipments, leading to a significant increase in shipment volume, price reductions, and boosting traders’ purchasing willingness. In addition, smooth shipping and delivery have jointly promoted the increase in shipment volume.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the continuous rebound of international crude oil in the past two days and the demand for stocking before the National Day holiday have provided support for spot trading. It is expected that the low-level market may slightly rise, but the high price market still faces pressure to maintain stable operation.

Recently (9.1~9.17) the domestic EVA market continues the upward trend. According to the company’s commodity market analysis system, as of September 17, the domestic EVA benchmark price was 11,200 yuan / ton, up 1.20% from September 1, 11,066 yuan / ton. On the one hand, EVA downstream demand support is better, raw material price support is stronger, pushing EVA prices higher; on the other hand, the domestic EVA device construction overall maintained a high level, the overall growth of the EVA market is limited.

Recently (9.1~9.17) EVA started to go up to about 9.0%, some pre-repair equipment restarted operation, EVA market supply pressure increased. During the cycle, raw material ethylene price was stable, ethylene acetate price was higher, the cost in the face of EVA support strengthened. As of September 17, the domestic ethylene petrochemical China East price at 7,150 yuan / ton, compared to September 1, 7,050 yuan / ton was stable; as of September 17, the market price of ethylene acetate China East at 5,400 yuan / ton, compared to September 1, 5,200 increased by 3.85%.
Recent PV EVA demand is strong support, plus the foam end to keep up with just need to follow up, the recent EVA demand support is better. But downstream to the high-price supply is still resistant. Trade side holding stock carefully with the market operation, the market stability continues to go high.
Aftermarket forecasts, the overall view of raw material prices higher EVA cost support, EVA start-up high supply surface pressure still exists, downstream photovoltaic and foam industry just need to support stronger, the overall expectation of the later EVA spot market or continue to rise slightly.

This week, the melamine market is indeed in a sluggish state, showing an overall pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices are under pressure to decline. As of September 16th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5650.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% compared to the beginning of this month (5662.50 yuan/ton).

From the perspective of the regional market, the ex factory quotation in the East China region is based on 5130-5350 yuan/ton, and it is clearly stated that “some can be negotiated”, indicating that there is room for discounts in actual transactions; Southwest region (Chongqing Jianfeng) quoted 5450 yuan/ton; The price in North China is around 5125 yuan/ton.
The price of upstream raw material urea is also decreasing. As of September 16th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1665.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.77% compared to the beginning of this month (1712.50 yuan/ton). This weakens the cost support for melamine.
Supply side:
High fluctuation of capacity utilization rate: Although the industry capacity utilization rate on September 4th decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 55.38% compared to the previous period (58.98%), it still remained relatively high overall. And it is expected that the capacity utilization rate and weekly output will still slightly increase this week (the week of September 15th). Enterprise inventory pressure: Under the combined effect of high operating rates and sluggish demand, some enterprises are facing the pressure of inventory accumulation.
Demand side:
The sustained weakness in downstream demand is the main reason for the sluggish market:
Weak willingness to purchase: Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, with few new transactions and a weak buying and selling atmosphere. As prices continue to decline, it further suppresses downstream purchasing enthusiasm.
The terminal industry is sluggish: The main consumer areas of melamine, such as artificial boards, coatings, and molded plastics, are closely related to the real estate industry. The current real estate industry continues to be sluggish, resulting in flat demand in these terminal industries, which in turn reduces the demand for melamine. For example, from January to July this year, the national production of artificial board surface decorative panels decreased by 7.64% year-on-year.
market outlook
It is expected that negative factors in the melamine market will still prevail in the short term, and the market is likely to continue its weak trend. If there is no significant improvement on the demand side, under sales pressure, it cannot be ruled out that companies may still experience price declines. The core contradiction in the market lies in the imbalance between high supply levels and weak downstream demand. We need to pay attention to whether downstream construction after the end of autumn can bring about a rebound in demand.
In summary, the current melamine market is mainly characterized by a downward trend in prices, significant supply pressure, sustained weak demand, and difficult profitability for enterprises. It is difficult for the market to show significant improvement in the short term, and the stabilization and rebound of prices may require a greater contraction of supply or substantial improvement in downstream demand.

Last week (September 8-14, 2025), downstream enterprises signed orders as needed, with low inventory levels and little fluctuation in on-site supply. The market trend of the main raw material, dissolved slurry, was stagnant, with limited cost support. The market trend of adhesive short fiber slightly increased.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, last week (September 8-14, 2025), the market price of viscose staple fiber was weakly stable. As of September 14, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week, with a weekly increase of 0.61%.
In terms of cost: Last week (September 8-14, 2025), there was little change in the market price of raw material dissolving pulp, with weak support and limited cost support. As of now, the price of domestic dissolving pulp is around 6700 yuan/ton, the price of external broad-leaved pulp is around 800 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 870 US dollars/ton. The market prices of auxiliary materials such as liquid alkali and sulfuric acid remain stable but fluctuate slightly, with average cost support.
The supply fluctuation is not significant
The industry supply has not changed much, and currently the daily operating rate in the market remains at around 75%. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers have declined compared to the previous period, and downstream yarn companies are picking up goods as needed. The overall inventory level of the adhesive short fiber market has decreased, and the supply fluctuation in the industry is not significant. Some manufacturers have low inventory, and the positive support from the supply side is limited.
Downstream on-demand procurement
The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market equipment has slightly increased, and price fluctuations are not significant. As of September 14th, the price of ring spun R30S in Jiangsu region is around 17100 yuan/ton, and the price of ring spun R40S is around 18300 yuan/ton. The market is in a traditional off-season of demand, and downstream cotton yarn market transactions are not ideal. Only a few models of vortex spun cotton yarn have slightly better export orders. Cotton mills mainly consume raw material inventory and replenish urgently needed goods, resulting in a slight improvement in demand.
Future forecast
On the raw material side, the main material dissolution slurry market and the auxiliary material sulfuric acid market are generally stable, while the liquid alkali market may experience a narrow decline. Therefore, it is expected that the market price trend of adhesive short fiber raw materials will decline in the short term, and the cost support will be insufficient.
Supply and demand side: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber market equipment may not fluctuate significantly, and some manufacturers have low inventory levels. Therefore, it is expected that the supply side support of the adhesive short fiber market will be strong in the short term; The demand in the terminal market has increased, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the driving force of the adhesive short fiber market from the demand side will be limited in the short term.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may be weak and stagnant, with sufficient overall supply. Downstream yarn factories mainly sign orders and purchase on demand. Under the interweaving of on-site news, adhesive short fiber manufacturers may maintain their previous quotations. Therefore, Business Society analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small movements in the short term, and the price is expected to be around 13000-13200 yuan/ton for acceptance.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (9.8-9.12), with an average market price of 17225 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17050 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.02%.

This week, the price has fallen to around 17000 yuan per ton, almost returning to the price before the price increase in late July.
Supply and demand side
In terms of supply, the overall supply of magnesium smelting enterprises remains stable and shows a slight upward trend, but their inventory has once again decreased. Magnesium smelting enterprises generally have a certain degree of panic. In addition, some enterprises are facing cash flow shortages in the middle of the month, and some choose to sell at low prices in small quantities, which has to some extent triggered a short-term price drop in the market..
In terms of demand, after the decline in magnesium prices, some downstream users began to purchase while prices were decreasing due to replenishment and delivery needs. However, those users who do not have emergency replenishment plans are still cautious and waiting to follow up; At the same time, some factories are actively and orderly arranging shipments, and the total amount of spot goods in the current market is not abundant.
Raw material end
The price of coal is constantly rising, while the price of blue charcoal remains relatively stable. The price of dolomite has significantly increased, and the price of ferrosilicon is expected to rise significantly, resulting in a significant increase in overall costs.
comprehensive analysis
This week, due to insufficient demand support, the magnesium market is facing downward pressure and has entered a phase of consolidation and decline. Entering September, the inventory of magnesium production end is rapidly digested, while upstream supply may decrease due to equipment maintenance, making it more difficult for magnesium prices to continue to decline. It is expected that after the market adjustment over the weekend, the magnesium market is expected to gradually stabilize.

Price trend: (9.1-9.11) Under pressure, downward trend, volatile consolidation

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 11th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 121766 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.25% and a year-on-year decline of 0.18%. Since early September, nickel prices have shown a downward trend in focus, mainly suppressed by factors such as the continuous increase in global explicit inventories and slow recovery of stainless steel demand, resulting in a volatile and weak market pattern.
Macroscopically, long and short factors are intertwined, and nickel prices fluctuate and fluctuate
1. The impact of the Indonesian incident has weakened: At the end of August, protests in Indonesia briefly pushed up nickel prices, but production was not affected as it did not affect Sulawesi, the main producer of nickel iron. Market sentiment fell and nickel prices subsequently decreased.
2. US economic data strengthens expectations of interest rate cuts: Non farm employment in August is far lower than expected, unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, PPI growth slows down, and market expectations for Fed interest rate cuts are heating up, with a probability of over 96%. Loose expectations support a slight rebound in nickel prices.
3. The strengthening of the US dollar suppresses nickel prices: The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on commodities priced in US dollars, including nickel, limiting price rebounds.
Supply side: The mining side has abundant supply, and inventory continues to accumulate
Loose supply of nickel ore: The Philippines is still in the peak season for shipments, and the amount of nickel ore arriving at ports continues to increase, with prices overall stable. The benchmark price of nickel ore for domestic trade in Indonesia (second half of September) remained at $14900 per dry ton. After the impact of the rainy season subsided, mining shipments tended to stabilize and supply capacity increased.
Global explicit inventory hit a new high: LME nickel inventory increased significantly by 13608 tons per week to 223152 tons; The nickel inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 206 tons to 22111 tons during the cycle. The global total inventory level has reached a historical high, reflecting the current severe oversupply pattern, which continues to suppress price increases.
Demand side: Traditional demand is weak, and the growth of new energy provides long-term support
1. Stainless steel consumption remains sluggish
On September 11th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was reported at 13055 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.15% during the week. The market transaction atmosphere is average, with stable quotes from traders and on-demand purchases from end-users, resulting in limited acceptance of high priced resources. However, the industry still expects the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” to bring about a rebound in production scheduling. It is expected that if demand recovers in the later stage, the marginal demand for nickel will improve.
2. Strong demand for new energy, optimistic outlook for nickel sulfate
From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, an increase of 39.2% and 38.5% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 45%. With the high nickel content of ternary batteries becoming the mainstream technology path, nickel sulfate as the core precursor raw material, there is still a demand gap in the future, which will provide solid support for nickel prices in the medium and long term.

Outlook for the future: Short term pressure fluctuations, medium to long term elasticity still exists
Nickel prices are still suppressed by high inventory and weak spot prices in the short term, with limited upward space, and are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. However, the market should not be overly pessimistic. Once the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates, the improvement of global liquidity is expected to boost the overall sentiment of the metal sector; The sustained high growth of the new energy industry provides structural support for nickel consumption; If the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” consumption peak season is realized, the recovery of stainless steel production may drive a temporary rebound in nickel demand.

Cobalt prices continue to rise

According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on September 10th was 270600 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.20% compared to the cobalt price of 262200 yuan/ton on August 20th. The increase in overseas orders has led to an increase in demand for cobalt in the international market, resulting in fluctuating cobalt prices.
US Strategic Reserve Cobalt Alloy
The US Department of Defense and Defense Logistics Agency have released tender documents, planning to purchase approximately 7480 tons of alloy grade cobalt for strategic reserves over the next five years, with a maximum procurement amount of up to $500 million. Cobalt is a key raw material for manufacturing components such as batteries, high-temperature alloys for aircraft engines, and gas turbines, and the United States mainly relies on imports. And China is the main exporter of cobalt, which has increased support for the rise of the cobalt market.
MB Cobalt Price Trend
From the MB cobalt price trend chart, it can be seen that the MB cobalt price has continued to rise since late August. The rise in international cobalt prices is positive for the domestic cobalt market, and the driving force for the increase in domestic cobalt prices has increased.
Overview and Prospect
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the strategic reserve of cobalt alloy in the United States has led to an increase in demand for cobalt in the international market, an increase in overseas cobalt orders, and an increase in the driving force for cobalt price increases, resulting in a volatile rise in cobalt prices. Expected strong consolidation of cobalt prices in the future.