Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly

Price Trend: (10.18-10.24)

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 24th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 123033 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.37% during the cycle, but still a year-on-year decrease of 3.05%. The game between macro factors and weak fundamentals has affected the narrow range fluctuation trend of domestic spot electrolytic nickel prices.
On October 18th, high-level economic and trade officials from China and the United States had a phone call and agreed to hold a new round of consultations as soon as possible, easing market concerns about the escalation of trade frictions and providing some support for nickel prices. However, LME continued to increase inventory and suppress, resulting in a slight decrease in nickel prices on the 20th.
On October 21st, China’s GDP for the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year-on-year, indicating a positive economic outlook and driving a single day rebound in nickel prices.
The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, held from October 20th to 23rd, proposed goals such as high-quality development and technological self-reliance during the 15th Five Year Plan period. The market has expectations for subsequent domestic demand stimulation and industrial policies, which will drive up nickel prices on the 24th.
Supply side:
Enhanced cost support: The reference price for the second phase of nickel ore in Indonesia in October increased by $40.33 per dry ton compared to the previous month, reflecting a tight global supply and demand for nickel ore and providing cost support for nickel prices.
Small accumulation of inventory: LME nickel inventory increased by 324 tons to 250854 tons, while the previous period’s inventory decreased by 232 tons to 26810 tons. The pattern of oversupply still exists, which continues to suppress the upward space of nickel prices.
Increased import pressure: In September 2025, China’s nickel iron imports increased significantly by 47.60% year-on-year, mainly from Indonesia and Brazil, exacerbating expectations of domestic oversupply.
Demand side:
Weak demand for stainless steel: The stainless steel market is showing a trend of “high production capacity and weak inventory reduction”. On October 24th, the benchmark price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 12975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% during the week. Insufficient support for nickel prices.
Although the new energy sector is a long-term growth point, its short-term impact on nickel demand is limited.
Future outlook:
The current nickel market presents a fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Although rising costs and macroeconomic policy expectations provide short-term support for prices, high inventory continues to suppress upward price potential. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term without significant changes in the external environment.