Weak demand leads to narrow fluctuations in the melamine market

Recently, the domestic melamine market has shown a narrow range oscillation pattern under the imbalance of supply and demand. The interweaving of positive and negative factors in the market leads to a lack of clear direction in prices, resulting in fluctuations within a narrow range.

The overall market price is in the low range of the past year. Taking the benchmark price of Shengyi Society as an example, as of October 22, the price was 5512.50 yuan/ton, still down 0.68% compared to the beginning of this month. The ex factory price of atmospheric pressure process is generally within the range of 4900-5250 yuan/ton.
1. Short term local positive news:
Occasional supply side contraction: For example, the Sichuan plant (with a production capacity of 50000 tons) shut down on October 21, resulting in a slight increase of 100 yuan/ton in its factory quotation to 5200 yuan/ton. The planned or temporary maintenance of these individual enterprises will provide temporary support for the supply and mentality of the local area.
2. Long term fundamental negative:
Downstream demand continues to be weak: The main downstream of melamine (about 60%) is the building materials industry closely related to real estate, such as artificial boards. The current sluggish real estate industry has directly suppressed the substantial demand for melamine.
Weakened cost support: The price of the main raw material urea fell month on month in the third quarter of 2025. As of October 22, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1570.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.16% compared to the beginning of this month (1621.25 yuan/ton). Unable to provide effective and solid support for the price of melamine from the cost side, resulting in the continuous squeezing of the profit margin of melamine enterprises.
Overall, the narrow fluctuations in the current melamine market and the partial benefits brought by plant shutdowns are not as significant as the fundamental negative effects of long-term overcapacity and weak demand.