The first quarter of this year, almost all of the enterprise sales growth rate of surprisingly, from at least 35 percent, to 80 or 90 percent, and even one has tripled, the only one who does not grow business, its sales last year reached 1.2 billion yuan.

Why is the increase in the first quarter?
fertiliser

From the pesticide product chain, the upstream tech enterprise growth is concentrated in the fourth quarter of last year, the fourth quarter is the preparation enterprise’s preparation period, the tech persticide trading is active, the Shanghai persticide trade fair is the price benchmark. But due to environmental pressure, the lack of production, leading to the shortage of tech pesticides, prices soared, imidacloprid, acetamiprid and other tech pesticides prices have doubled, the tech pesticides prices soared to enhance the industry tense atmosphere, and from upstream to Downstream, leading to the industry to produce “illusion”, the preparation plant at full capacity, the downstream dealers are also grab goods, a quarter of the channel full lack-selling, many manufacturers out of a substantial increase in the library, so with the opening of the high growth momentum.

Why is the growth in the second quarter real growth?

“The growth in the first quarter not real growth, the growth in the second quarter is real grouth and the most important growth is in the third and forth quarter. In the first quarter,in addition to anti-season medication in Hainan and parts of southern China, most parts of the country has not yet started medication, pressure to the first quarter of the country, Channel goods, the demand side is the farmers have not yet purchased, or farmers in the promotion policy to encourage the purchase but did not use to the ground, can not form a second purchase behavior, so the first quarter of the goods out of the majority of manufacturers in the channel That is, the hands of wholesalers, did not digest to the hands of farmers, the strict sense is not completed sales, but the goods from the production enterprises to zero-zero enterprises “turn warehouse” behavior, the formation of “barrier lake” phenomenon. Of course, as the goods leave the factory flow to the market, the fourth quarter of last year, the original pharmaceutical companies and statements in the first quarter of this year, the preparation of corporate statements have been bright up.
Bacillus thuringiensis

Into the April, is the southern China citrus and other large crops Paul flower fruit drug peak period, rice and northern crops into the medication period, the national full access to the peak of medication, the first quarter accumulation in the batch of commercial warehouse goods gradually transferred to the farmers In the hands of the “barrier lake” began to spill flood, at this time, whether the formation of channels as soon as possible purchase, as the evaluation of sales agents on behalf of the important basis for sales promotion, but also the dealer sales promotion ability of the concentrated period of experience.

The second quarter is the most important product of the digestion period, when the goods such as rotation, purchase frequency fast. If the second quarter can continue to grow, to prove that the first quarter of the shop has been digested goods, the downstream have the ability to re-purchase. In addition to selling goods, short-term no other law, agricultural services is the highlight of the rise of nearly two years, “flying defense” to enhance the user sticky, but nothing more than the more Take the goods channel, and reduce the dosage, short-term profits of the pesticide companies and performance is not driven, corporate profits are still hanging on the product spreads, as the car production plant produced by the car only rent not sell, anti To grab a taxi business business, which is worthless for the car factory.
Fipronil

Why is growth unsustainable?

Pesticide consumption growth is unsustainable because:

There was no increase in acreage;

Policy does not encourage the use of growth;

There is no sign of a substantial increase in agricultural prices;

Domestic and international economic environment has not improved significantly;

So short-term growth is only “virtual fire”, but the limited cake re-cut, foreign companies rely on new products to increase, within the enterprise to rely on quality continue to increase market share, we cut the head in a stagnant market share of the total squeeze.
Methomyl

In the case of excess capacity, once the opportunity, who have a full horsepower boot “impulse” to see the pyrazole production capacity and the actual output data is very obvious, the current pyraz manufacturers total production capacity of one-third To meet domestic demand, the future of vicious competition is inevitable. Therefore, the impulse in the first quarter of the pharmaceutical companies will lead to the latter part of the channel product surplus? Remains to be seen, but at the end of June can be seen.

From the terminal to see, and did not show this “impulsive” behavior, in addition to the southern citrus cultivation area has continued large area expansion impulses, the northeast, north, southeast, northwest of which crop planting area is a substantial expansion, wheat and other parts Grain area will be shrinking, the drug did not increase the market base, farmers generally did not increase the impulse to buy agricultural, grass-roots quiet, so there has been “upstream hot downstream cold, the middle of the lake” situation.

The supply side of the changes led to the original drug and preparation prices unrealistically, and farmers did not increase investment in agricultural commodities, but the decline in purchasing power, which has no market demand to support the behavior, after the medication period, the market appears to digest a large number of stocks, Homogeneous products will lead to poor sales and competition to bargain.

If the product can not be digested in the first half, will form a quarterly inventory, receivables risk and return risk followed.

Why three or four quarters of growth is the most important? Flumethrin

“In the third quarter, especially in August, the northern market quickly into the off-season, only greenhouse vegetables, the eastern and the Yangtze River market still below the market, the growth of the second quarter, Have the opportunity, the goods of the season to adjust the market to digest and promote the staff of the busy market to become the manufacturers will do the “basic homework.”

If the second half still maintain year-on-year growth, especially the chain growth can remain stable, then prove that the first half of the enterprise market products digested properly, reasonable channel inventory, then continue to increase the potential is enough.
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Recently, the market is eagerly looking forward to the crude oil futures standard contract officially debut, also debut also includes crude oil futures trading, settlement, delivery, risk control, futures traders appropriate system, including 10 business rules. This series of business rules introduced, marking the real estate futures market really entered the real stage. fertiliser

“Crude oil futures market is getting closer, the fastest in the third quarter of this year will be listed.” Huaan futures Shanghai branch general manager, chief oil analyst Xu Jie told reporters that the Chinese version of the crude oil futures market, many domestic Of the private refining business, is a major positive.

In recent years, with the gradual liberalization of crude oil import qualification, more and more private refining enterprises to obtain the use of imported crude oil quotas. According to the relevant data, so far, has been officially approved (excluding the publicity period) imports of crude oil use quota enterprises, the cumulative use of imported 77.85 million tons of crude oil, if the business has entered the publicity period (extended, Haike, Lan Bridge , Hubei Jinao, wins star, Qi Cheng, Hualong, Dalian Jinyuan), the cumulative use of imported 95.25 million tons of crude oil.Sodium Molybdate

According to report, the last two years, although crude oil prices in a relatively low, but its volatility is still relatively strong, 20% of the ups and downs in a month is very normal. “In addition to a small number of enterprises are involved in international crude oil futures trading, most companies do not have to the international futures market risk management of their positions, they can only passively accept the international oil prices volatility.” Xu Jie said.

However, he also said that with the domestic crude oil futures market, there will be more and more private refining enterprises to participate in the futures market. According to its introduction, refining business profit model is to improve the utilization of funds under the premise of the lowest possible cost of oil production. Bacillus thuringiensis

“Refining companies can buy some of the crude oil futures market in the domestic crude oil, lock a part of the cost of oil, and the delivery location is also in the country, transport is also very convenient at the same time, they can follow the market every month to open positions to avoid significant fluctuations in oil prices Production to bring the uncertainty of risk. “Xu Jie told reporters.

Shandong Province, a private refining enterprise futures hedging business department official said that the current domestic private refining enterprises to participate in the futures market is not too much, but with the pace of crude oil futures market approaching, many refining enterprises are in action to set up their own Of the hedge team.

“Crude oil futures market to the domestic private refining enterprises to provide hedging tools and channels, but also to the overseas enterprises to bring cross-market arbitrage opportunities.” The official said.

Xu Jie said that in addition to the use of crude oil hedging to carry out risk management, the private refining enterprises can register their own inventory for the warehouse receipts, and then warehouse receipts of financing, which can greatly improve the efficiency of enterprise funds, Occupy a high degree of refining enterprises has a very important significance.

“The private Refining enterprises to use good crude oil futures, according to their actual production scale and characteristics, to establish a good momentum in the futures market size and operating rhythm, and then through the inventory of financial, improve capital utilization, the business performance and risk Control capacity to a new level. “Xu Jie said.Flumethrin

Shanghai Petroleum Products Trade Industry Association Deputy Secretary-General Wu Jun believes that the domestic petrochemical industry chain, the introduction of crude oil futures with milestone significance. First, to promote the further opening up of the crude oil market, to participate in the main body more diversified, crude oil futures investors both domestic investors, but also outside the investors; both institutional investors, but also individual investors, and with domestic and foreign crude oil The increase in the main body of futures, crude oil spot competition will gradually change the pattern. The second is to promote the full range of state-owned oil companies to participate in the futures market to promote the domestic oil product pricing mechanism of the market; third is to find long-term prices to facilitate the future production costs of enterprises to develop long-term sound business plan; Risk management awareness, the use of hedging means to enhance the profitability of enterprises and anti-risk ability.

In his view, hedging is a key prerequisite for the success of futures and spot market relevance. “In the past, China’s enterprises in the spot transactions will be hedged, but are used in foreign markets and domestic markets hedge transactions, once the domestic prices and foreign prices seriously deviated from the situation, not only lead to hedging failure, but also Resulting in unnecessary losses. “Wu Jun said.

Since the beginning of 2017, due to the Chinese market did not restore the demand for olefins, some pre-positive support gradually decay, coupled with the Chinese market methanol industry chain products have declined and the impact of crude oil prices fell, China, the United States and the Nordic market in February – (About 295-300 US dollars / ton), the Northwest European market fell to 285 euros (about 295-300 US dollars / ton), the United States and Europe fell to 90 cents / gallon (about 295-300 US dollars / ton), Northwest Europe market fell to 285 euros / Ton (about 310-315 US dollars / ton), the international spot market arbitrage was disrupted. Paraquat

In Europe and the United States prices lower at the same time, CFR China also fell to 270 US dollars / ton, and the price and the paper is still in the upside down in June, the domestic delivery of goods is not intended, affected by some of the Middle East and the Americas goods turn Sold to the Northwest European market. It is reported that the Middle East to China and other East Asian markets freight in the 38-40 US dollars / ton, while the Middle East to Northwest Europe freight costs 55 US dollars / ton in the vicinity of the two freight difference of 15-20 US dollars / ton. For example, the price on May 10, CFR China for 267 US dollars / ton, FOB Rotterdam for 285 euros / ton (about 310 US dollars / ton), the two spreads of 43 US dollars / ton, the spread is greater than the two poor freight Resulting in some of the Middle East stock sales to the Northwest European market. According to Jinlian know that there are about 46,000 tons of goods are being sold to the Northwest European market transport, including about 12,000 tons of goods in Azerbaijan, Egyptian goods about 14,000 tons, the remaining 20,000 tons of goods from the Caribbean and other countries Region, affected by this, the follow-up Northwest European methanol market supply or will increase,Glyphosate while the region to discuss or gradually decline, concerned about the late sub-Asia, Europe, the United States and other international arbitrage operations opportunities.
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Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released data show that 1 to 3 months, the national industrial enterprises above designated size to achieve profits (hereinafter referred to as “business profits”) total 1704.3 billion yuan, an increase of 28.3%, growth rate of 1 to 2 months down 3.2 percentage point. But compared with the annual growth rate of 8.5% in 2016, the first quarter profit growth rate recovery significantly. Sodium selenite

From the industry point of view, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry profit growth of 3.6 times, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry profit growth of 93.8%, oil processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry profits increased 67.1%, the industry is the profit growth rate The fastest of the three industries. Cobalt oxide

Increased profit in the industry, the first quarter of the upstream raw material industry profit growth significantly. Bureau of Statistics data show that in the same period last year, coal mining and washing industry losses of 650 million yuan in the first quarter of this year, the total profit of 70.87 billion yuan; oil and natural gas extraction industry losses of 28.4 billion yuan last year, the first quarter of this year to achieve total profits 188.4 billion yuan; ferrous metal mining industry, the total profit growth rate also reached 88.2%. http://www.lubonchem.com

According to reports, CNPC Chairman Wang Yilin said the company will be signed in the next two days worth 20 billion US dollars contract, including the United States, including foreign imports of more crude oil and natural gas, as well as participation in the rapid development of the liquefied natural gas market in Asia.

Melamine

According to the information provided by CNPC, the project includes a Yunnan refinery built in cooperation with Saudi Aramco, a $ 4 billion Azerbaijani gas project, a Russian gas power plant project and a Kenya geothermal power generation project.

Wang Yilin in an interview with the media pointed out that the US oil and gas resources, China hopes to expand imports of energy from the country, so that China’s energy supply more diversified.

PVA

In addition to increasing imports of US energy, CNPC has also initially established China Unicom’s oil and gas supply and market network. On May 8, Wang Dongjin, deputy general manager of CNPC, said that CNPC actively promoted infrastructure construction, and four major oil and gas transportation channels were formed from northwest, northeast, southwest and east in Central Asia, China, Russia, China, Myanmar and the sea. China Unicom, through the benefits of multi-national oil and gas supply and market network.

The end of March this year, the oil released 2016 annual report, when the net profit of 7.857 billion yuan, the highest since the record record, down 77.9%. Xinhua quoted the industry analysis, said CNPC upstream assets accounted for larger, sensitive to oil prices, by the international oil prices and other factors have a greater impact, the performance fell sharply. Stannous sulphate

CNPC said that in 2016, the international oil prices hovering low, the oil field service industry has not yet got rid of the impact of low oil prices, the company production and management pressure to further increase.

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From yesterday,China traders selling offer in the mainstream market in mainland was pushed up. Till midday today, the market rose as high as 8.2%, the rapid pull up with a wave of late April is very similar to the rebound. So many marketers whispered, but also “short-lived” or “set of the road.” We compare these two bounce to analyze:

Benzalkonium chloride

Bounce contrast

    The factors affecting the acetone market are the supply and demand fundamentals, the rebound late April was determined by the near May holiday and centralized purchase of downstream users, but with the domestic factory inventory pressure, and consider the contractor, the factory down the price, and then The market mentality began to change, the rise lasted only about 3 days.

    The rise is part of the domestic factory parking maintenance news, and some market participants to see the port inventory has dropped to 20,000 tons the following, while the external disk prices are high, the market immediately expected follow-up supply indentation, so the intermediary will enter the receipt Purchase period. The current spot concentration of the port, the big family immediately began to pull up the price, the rally is still continuing.

Flumethrin

    But is it really a rally? We do not think that the market rebound is completely unreasonable. Can only say that demand growth is not much, and short-term supply will not be tightened, I am afraid that this increase is untenable. Looking back at late April, it is thoughtful. Pre-Asian maintenance device has been restarted, and now the external disk prices and the domestic market upside down, the difference is 100 US dollars / ton, is still Asia to Europe arbitrage, profit is still better than China. But in May the port of the normal amount of the contract added in the 1.6-2 million tons. Yangzhou device plans to park about 15 days in the month, the Shanghai Sisa device has been planned to restart, some traders said that the quilt in the waiting set, also said that the market mentality is not entirely good. Downstream terminal industry can not see a complete improvement, especially the pharmaceutical and pesticide industry by environmental pressure.

    Acetone market rebound trend is reasonable, but the gains were unexpected, the medium-term information that, although the late supply side tightening there is a certain support, but the time point of supply and demand balance has not yet arrived, is expected to quickly pull up or Short-term behavior, looking for points to digest, waiting for new news guidelines

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The domestic methanol market continued to fall since mid-April, the weak fundamentals of the commodity itself and the macro-capital tightening, methanol futures contract 1709 last week limit, the mainland ports neatly lower, the overall shadow of the market shrouded.

    As of the date of receipt, Zhongyu Information Statistics, East China main port spot price fell to 2290 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of April prices continue to cut 325 yuan / ton. Northwest manufacturers ex-factory price to 1880 yuan / ton in the vicinity, compared with the beginning of April prices down 420 yuan / ton, the mainland to the port arbitrage basically closed.

Melamine

    And into this week, some manufacturers maintenance information fermentation, coupled with the continued decline in the previous market, the industry did not cover short positions, the Northwest manufacturers have improved delivery, very price intention to strengthen, some prices have narrow rebound. And for the market outlook, more business mentality is still confused, is the rebound or will continue to find the bottom?

    Spring test the end of the first round, a new wave of repair struck

    The current domestic coal, coke oven gas and natural gas production of methanol enterprises are still more than a certain profit margins, late April, more maintenance factory equipment recovery, the market started to significantly increase the contradiction between supply and demand increased, increasing the pace of market decline.

Device dynamics

    May market supply side of the volatility again, Shandong Ming water, new energy Tengzhou Phoenix new plant plans to put into operation, and the Inner Mongolia Shi Lin early technical transformation device plan to restart, and according to Zhongyu information to understand the device to drive or restart more concentrated near the end of the month The Nearly two weeks near the current, northwest, Guanzhong multi-enterprise maintenance plan focused on the short-term market, the supply was declining trend, the market will support some.

Cobalt oxide

    Olefin maintenance needs are expected to be poor
    As the current largest methanol downstream, methanol to olefins plant any signs of trouble, the market impact can not be ignored. And since November last year, with the methanol prices continue to rise, the port of methanol to olefins enterprises continue to struggle in the loss of the end of March Changzhou Fu Tak device due to cost pressures, parking maintenance, port olefin demand decline. Jiangsu Sheng Hong device drive, but its high raw material inventory, short-term impact on the market demand is not obvious.

    And in the coal Yulin olefins plant in the beginning of the month on January 2. overhaul in January, Yang Heng Heng olefin plant on the 7th began maintenance, 5 in the middle of the coal mineral oil plant has a maintenance plan, the overall decline in domestic olefin plant, the demand for methanol The amount of decline.

    Environmental protection continues, the traditional downstream load is not high

Chitosan oligosaccharide

    Started in April this year, Shandong, Shanxi, Anhui and other 15 provinces and cities to carry out the most stringent environmental protection inspector, most of the downstream enterprises were forced to cut production limit. And the establishment of the new security zone, making Hebei to increase the pace of environmental protection and remediation. Hebei, Shandong area dimethyl ether, formaldehyde and other traditional downstream widely distributed, the impact of environmental protection, the demand for methanol has significantly shrinkage. And noted that the impact of environmental protection supervision continued, the traditional downstream construction is difficult to significantly improve the short term.

    Cut off the draft, Zhongyu information to understand, in some areas in the tight supply support, the rising signs have emerged. And with the price continued to fall, the factory profit shrinking, very price intention gradually increased, driven by the market mentality has improved, the downstream industry or have a certain need to cover short positions, Zhongyu that short-term market or stage stability, Rebound may be, but the lack of trend of high power. In the long-term market is still not optimistic, weak demand is not removed, the pattern of oversupply, the market is still in the process of repeated shocks bottoming.

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Nickel fell again in April this year, and London nickel fell more than Shanghai nickel, for two consecutive months, among the worst performance in non-ferrous metals, nickel ore supply pressure has risen, in which the Philippines strict environmental policy is difficult Effective implementation and the Indonesian nickel ore export ban part of the release, while tightening global monetary policy, and foreign geopolitical risk rising, but also increase the risk of nickel prices down. Looking ahead May, the above negative factors continue to pressure nickel prices, even if there is technical rebound, highly limited and difficult to continue, it is recommended to maintain every high-altitude ideas.

Sodium molybdate

First, the nickel market down risk

On the details of the macroeconomic fundamentals, you can visit the Shanghai Copper monthly report, not to repeat here, the following nickel market supply and demand fundamentals of the downside risk and upward momentum analysis. Among them, the nickel market, the main downside risk from the middle of refined nickel and nickel pig iron supply is still relatively adequate, while the downstream demand for stainless steel to improve the intensity is limited enough to promote the demand for nickel.

1, LME nickel stocks are still high

As of April 26, LME refined nickel stocks reported 379,338 tons, an increase of 1824 tons at the end of March, the sixth increase in the past seven months, the cumulative increase of 17544 tons, but LME nickel June 4, 2015 record High 470376 tons cut 91038 tons. Excluding other negative factors, the continued increase in nickel-nickel inventories shows that the nickel market is climbing, and the spot premium of Nickel and nickel is still high at $ 50 / tonne, which means that the supply of excess nickel in the nickel market has increased. The price of nickel is suppressed. In view of the current high inventory, this year the nickel market still need to further promote the process of inventory. The reason why the high LME inventory is mainly due to a few years before the market surplus accumulation of invisible inventory due.

Chitosan oligosaccharide

2, China’s nickel iron imports and production both higher

Indonesia’s nickel-iron project has been successfully put into operation in recent years, not only a large number of high-nickel-iron transport to China, but also to improve the domestic iron and steel industry, Business to Indonesia to invest and build the intention and speed. Therefore, one of the main reasons for the weak nickel prices is the market concerns about Indonesia’s new nickel-iron production capacity, from the nickel ore imports from Indonesia, we can see that this concern gradually transferred to the domestic market, the performance of nickel imports from 2015 The amount of sustained rise, partially offset the domestic nickel iron production and nickel ore imports fell. China’s nickel-iron imports in January-March this year, 335367 tons, up 14.8 tons or 75.64%, of which imports from Indonesia’s nickel iron up to 231792 tons, an increase of 106.04%, accounting for 69.1% of total imports, to further consolidate our country The status of the largest source of imports of nickel iron. At the same time, from January to March imports from New Caledonia nickel iron for the 36306 tons, an increase of 46.58%. January-March nickel-iron exports can be negligible. Production, March nickel iron (metal tons) to 36604.55 tons, the chain slightly reduced 1605 tons, an increase of 5376 tons. At the same time, January-March nickel iron (metal tons) for the 110,317 tons, an increase of 29554 tons or 37%, indicating that the domestic iron and steel enterprises to actively increase production.

3, Russian nickel imports continued to decline

In 2016, the net imports of unwrought nickel and alloys totaled 35,400,800 tons, an increase of 9,1205 tons or 22.18% over the same period of last year. The import volume increased by 67,305 tons and the export volume decreased by 23899 tons and the import and export increased rising. But in January-March refined refined nickel and alloy imports of 43,382 tons, up 60.05% year on year, of which refined nickel and alloy imports in March 14,371 tons, down 66.75% year on year, hit the second in March 2015 to the next level The January-March imports of nickel from Russia for 19901 tons, down 73.02% year on year (accounting for 46%), Russia’s refined nickel supply to a certain extent offset the increase in China’s nickel pig iron production to suppress. At the same time on the nickel stocks also increased by nine months. As of April 21 this year, nickel stocks on the period of 83895 tons, slightly increased 414 tons, an increase of 3766 tons, but close to the low level in nearly a year, compared with September 14, 2016 record highs 112078 tons to reduce 28,183 tons, indicating that the domestic refined nickel supply pressure control.

EDTA

Second, up momentum

1, the global nickel market to maintain supply shortages

According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) data show that in January-February 2017 global nickel market supply shortage of 20,000 tons, 2016 global nickel market supply shortage of 62,000 tons, an annual surplus of 7.35 million tons in 2015. The total refined nickel production in January-February was 272,100 tons, the demand was 292,200 tons, and the global nickel output of the mine was 311,000 tons, up by 0.4 million tons year on year. 2016 nickel ore production was 1,852,700 tons, compared with 2015 to reduce 271,000 tons. But the International Nickel Research Organization published data is relatively pessimistic, the data show that in January and February this year, the global nickel market supply shortage of 5500 tons, nickel city production of 332,300 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons; consumption of 337,800 tons, 37,000 tons. Although the caliber of the two statistics are different, but have conveyed the nickel market in a supply shortage. The organization also expects global nickel demand to increase to 2.11 million tonnes in 2017, up from 2.03 million tonnes in 2016 and nickel production of 2.07 million tonnes, up from 1.99 million tonnes in 2016, resulting in 40,000 tonnes of nickel Supply and demand gap, lower than last December forecast of 66,000 tons, due to nickel production is expected to increase.

2, supply – domestic port nickel ore inventories record record low

Sodium selenite

In the context of the decline in imports of nickel ore, the domestic nickel enterprises can only continue to digest the port of nickel ore inventories, resulting in nickel ore stocks continued to decline, repeated record low level. As of April 21, China’s coastal ports of nickel ore inventories fell to 8.51 million tons, compared with the end of March to reduce 600,000 tons, for the sixth consecutive month of decline, down 468 million tons, another record low. January-April domestic port nickel ore inventories fell by 5.26 million tons or 38%, the current in February 2014 hit a record high of 26.13 million tons to reduce 17.62 million tons or 67%.

Third, long and short gradually transformed

1, supply – Philippine nickel ore supply remains uncertain

China’s nickel reserves of 300 million tons, accounting for only 4.05% of the global nickel reserves, but mainly sulfide-type nickel ore, red clay mineral resources is relatively lacking. Each year China needs to import large amounts of laterite nickel ore to develop stainless steel industry. China’s imports of nickel from the Philippines fell 10.95% year-on-year in 2016, but the change was lower than the 20% decline in the Philippine government’s estimate earlier this year. From January to March this year, China’s total imports of nickel ore and concentrate of about 302.6 million tons, down 11.01%, of which imported from the Philippines, about 1.916 million tons of nickel ore (accounting for down to 76.54%), down 20.23% Expanded. In the same period, imports of nickel ore from Australia for 19,159 tons, down 68.53%, accounting for only 0.63%, still difficult to become climate, but 1-3 month imports from New Caledonia nickel ore up to 210,705 tons, By 476.36%, accounting for up to 6.96%. Since March the Philippine Minister of Environmental Protection Lopez’s appointment has not been passed, the Philippine nickel mine strict environmental policy is difficult to implement, in May Congress will re-appointment review. At the same time, with the Philippine nickel ore producing areas Su Ligao end of the annual rainy season (from October each year to the end of the following year for the rainy season), the future of nickel ore imports or an increase. In addition, Indonesia to lift part of the nickel ore export ban will also bring the impact of medium-term nickel prices. January imports of Indonesia from January to March this year, 298466 tons of nickel ore, the import value hit a high point in November 2014, partly to make up for the reduction of the Philippines nickel ore gap, due to the January 12 Indonesia announced the partial cancellation of nickel ore export ban The Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said that under the new regulations, Indonesia’s mining or annual export of 5.2 million tons of nickel ore. Philippine environmental policy can be further clear in May, will be the impact of nickel ore supply is expected to be the key, and the current situation, with the end of the rainy season and the New Caledonia nickel ore follow-up force, nickel ore Supply pressure has risen, as the existence of negative factors.

2, demand – downstream stainless steel production growth continued

Stannous Sulphate

China is the world’s largest native nickel consumer, consumption in 2014 accounted for 50% of the global proportion, followed by the United States. From the domestic terminal demand, the main consumption of nickel concentrated in the stainless steel industry (consumption ratio of up to 66%). While 60% of China’s stainless steel used in the real estate industry. China’s stainless steel crude steel production reached 2493.78 million tons, an increase of up to 15.65%, another record high, imports of stainless steel is expected to 770,000 tons, an increase of 44,000 tons; exports 3.88 million tons, an increase of 464,000 tons; The amount of 18.853 million tons, an increase of 2.5606 million tons, an increase of 15.66%, much higher than the market expected 3-5%. The market is expected to 2017 stainless steel new production of 27 million -28 million tons, which does not contain Indonesia Qingshan Iron and Steel production capacity of 2 million tons, the overall output growth rate or up to 10% or more.

2, demand – March steel industry PMI fell slightly

In March this year, China’s steel industry PMI chain fell slightly 0.8% to 50.6% in February chain rose to 51.4%, the highest in nearly 10 months. In the sub-index, the new order index and the new export order index fell 4.7% and 7.1% to 50.6% and 41.6% respectively. In the same period, Hebei Iron and Steel industry PMI also fell to 48.4% in the past six months, the fifth in the 50-wing line, failed to continue strong performance in February. Although more than 3-4 months to limit the property market to limit the purchase policy, but the policy control there is time lag, and there is no significant cooling, terminal demand in May or is expected to continue to improve. Domestic stainless steel stocks, as of April 10, Foshan, the total stock of stainless steel 142500 tons, the chain decreased by 3510 tons, the current level is still relatively low in history, record low for the year on February 10 hit 88228 tons; Wuxi area in the same period the total stock of stainless steel continued to increase 5359 tons to 250545 tons, a record high.

3, and the real estate control policy upgrade

Stannous Sulfate

60% of China’s stainless steel used in the real estate industry. March home sentiment index rose to 101.13, an increase of 0.37 points, for more than a year to stabilize at 100 on the brink of the line above its record low in July 2015 hit 92.43, showing the real estate market confidence The rise of the corresponding real estate development enterprises intends to expand the housing market investment. January-March national real estate development investment of 1929.2 billion yuan, up 9.1% year on year growth rate, growth rate than in January to 0.2%. January-March housing new construction area of ​​315.6 million square meters, an increase of 11.6%, 1.2% growth rate. At the same time, from January to March the national real estate sales area of ​​29.035 million square meters, an increase of 19.5%, the growth rate of 5.6% decline from January to December. The data show that with the purchase of more than limited control policies to upgrade, fully implement the central “house is used to live,

Rather than speculation “policy, sales growth in real estate has slowed. Looking in May, due to the real estate industry policy and credit policy is still tight, and monetary policy easing has narrowed, the real estate market is still facing adjustment risk, the overall price Growth rate will be down.At the same time, subject to the high real estate market inventory, to inventory is also the housing market theme, while the national property market differentiation situation will continue in March 70 large and medium cities between the housing price differentiation is still continuing.

Four, May nickel price outlook

The second quarter of this year, the global economic downturn is still facing heavy concerns, especially the two rounds of France to bring political instability, and China to strengthen the housing market regulation to bring market fears rise. Monetary policy, the world’s major economies, the gradual rise in inflation, the global loose monetary policy has tightened, the focus should be vigilant in the Federal Reserve in May – June to raise interest rates expected speculation, the Chinese central bank [microblogging] is constantly raised Reverse repo rate and MLF also raise interest rates. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure caused by the uncertainty of the Trump policy. The second quarter of non-ferrous metals will continue to be based on their different fundamentals and differentiation trend, the medium-term nickel both the lack of support for the reduction of copper supply, and no aluminum supply side of the expected reform and cost expectations, its performance or continue to weaker Other base metals.

Tert-butanol

As for the fundamentals of nickel itself, the supply of raw nickel ore in the upper reaches has improved, especially as the export of nickel ore in the Philippines has increased, and some of the nickel ore has resumed its own production. At the same time, due to the further increase in the import and production of nickel pig iron Increased pressure, especially in the last period and London nickel stocks are at a high level in history, making tight nickel ore to the middle of the process of slow, nickel prices and thus far less performance than other basic metals, May attention continues to decline The nickel price can force companies to increase production efforts. Downstream demand, the steel industry PMI to fall again, resulting in uncertainty in the demand for stainless steel, not enough to make stainless steel production rose sharply, while exports will be foreign anti-dumping countervailing investigation efforts to increase, which will partially limit the nickel price rebound height.

I believe that the nickel price in May is still difficult to see a strong upward momentum, it is difficult to have a decent rise, short factors still prevail, the so-called weak weak, strong Hengqiang, Shanghai nickel can still be effective as one of the short hedge varieties , The operation still need to maintain the oscillation bearish ideas. Shanghai nickel 1709 contract in May running range of 85000-75000 yuan / ton.

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1. Baiyun Obo ore niobium resources
China’s more than 80% of the niobium resources concentrated in Baotou Baiyunebo mine, its low grade (0.12 ~ 0.14%), only the Brazilian niobium grade 1/20. Baotou Baiyun Obo Iron Mine is a unique type of iron ore deposit in China. It is a deposit and hydrothermal metasomatic deposit, which is a large iron and polymetallic complex. The mining area consists of the main, east and west ore bodies, 71 species have been found, 129 kinds of minerals are formed, the main iron ore grade is 36.48%, the rare earth oxide grade is 5.18%, the fluorine grade is 5.95%, the niobium oxidation Grade 0.129%.

EDTA 2Na

The niobium resources of the Baiyun Obbo deposit have the following characteristics:

(1) large reserves. Nb2O5 long-term reserves of 6.6 million t, industrial reserves of 1.57 million t, of which the main ore iron ore body Nb2O5 295,000 t.

(2) widely distributed. The main and east ore iron ore bodies contain niobium, and the ore body to be mined in the west ore also contains niobium. The main and east ore deposits, the eastern contact zone and the western ore dolomite also contain niobium, and the niobium in this part of the surrounding rock High content.

(3) low grade of niobium. The content of w (Nb2O5) is 0.0680% ~ 0.14% in the main ore body and the ore in the East ore body, and 0.20% ~ 0.25% w (Nb2O5) in the ore body of the eastern contact zone.

(4) The size of niobium mineral embedded in each ore section is generally less than 20μm, part of less than 3μm; No. 2 ore body niobium mineral embedded particle size is relatively coarse, generally more than 20μm.

EDTA 4Na

(5) The degree of niobium dispersion is high, about 15% of niobium is the same type or very small inclusions in iron minerals, rare earth minerals and niobium-containing silicate minerals.

(6) There are many kinds of niobium minerals, and the main chemical properties of niobium minerals are different, the difference is large, and the symbiosis between niobium minerals and other minerals is close, and the difference is small, which increases the difficulty of beneficiation The

Niobium as a major resource of Baiyunebo mine, has not yet been well applied to industrial production.

Chitosan oligosaccharide

2. Tantalum and niobium resources
China does not have an independent niobium mine, niobium is often mixed with rare earth and tantalum, difficult to pick difficult to recover, the recovery rate is very low. Jiangxi Yichun tantalum and niobium resources in China and Asia’s largest tantalum and niobium minerals. China’s tantalum and niobium minerals are more than half from Yichun mineral. Some of China’s large or large tantalum and niobium minerals are mostly small, veins scattered, tantalum and niobium mineral embedded grain size is fine, the origin of low grade ore, the state of the poor, large-scale mining of mining less, so the economic resources not much. At the same time, the processing capacity is very large, the selectivity is small, the recovery rate is not high, the recovery period is longer.

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Ethyl 4-chloroacetoacetate is an important pharmaceutical intermediates, is a treatment of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, high-performance drugs atorvastatin calcium, oxalcitrant intermediates, the drug in the United States several pharmaceutical companies have There is production. Its downstream products are mainly used for the third and fourth generation cephalosporins raw materials, cephalosporins efficacy of penicillin is several times, and the toxicity of the human body is small, development and production prospects are very good.

Cobalt oxide

Ethyl 4-chloroacetoacetate Molecular formula ClCH2COCH2COOC2H5, structural formula as shown below, molecular weight 164.58, at room temperature for the colorless transparent liquid, the density of 1.218g / cm3, the boiling point of 103 ℃.

The domestic demand for ethyl 4-chloroacetoacetate is mainly determined by downstream applications.

As one of the main applications of ethyl 4-chloroacetoacetate, aminotriacetic acid was first synthesized by Alfred Huwiher and Leander Tenud, oxalated with 4-bromoacetoacetate, cyclized and methylated to form ethyl thiophosphate, and then saponified to obtain The For reasons of cost, use ethyl 4-chloroacetoacetate instead of the traditional ethyl 4-bromoacetoacetate.

Potassium monopersulfate

China began in the early 80s of the last century the development of aminotetramine, the earliest began production of sulfamoyl acid manufacturers in Lubon Industry Co.,Ltd, when the market price of aminotetrazine as high as 60 million / ton. At that time the process is relatively cumbersome, raw material costs in 200,000 / ton, but the market demand is only about 3-5 tons. As the market continues to expand, technology is also rising. The original process is a step-by-step reaction, the need to product distillation and purification, not only caused a long process route, and the reaction yield decreased, by switching to a solvent for all reactions, and gradually reduce the cost to about 150,000, the price of the product Also reduced to 300,000 / ton or less.

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