The domestic methanol market continued to fall since mid-April, the weak fundamentals of the commodity itself and the macro-capital tightening, methanol futures contract 1709 last week limit, the mainland ports neatly lower, the overall shadow of the market shrouded.
As of the date of receipt, Zhongyu Information Statistics, East China main port spot price fell to 2290 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of April prices continue to cut 325 yuan / ton. Northwest manufacturers ex-factory price to 1880 yuan / ton in the vicinity, compared with the beginning of April prices down 420 yuan / ton, the mainland to the port arbitrage basically closed.
And into this week, some manufacturers maintenance information fermentation, coupled with the continued decline in the previous market, the industry did not cover short positions, the Northwest manufacturers have improved delivery, very price intention to strengthen, some prices have narrow rebound. And for the market outlook, more business mentality is still confused, is the rebound or will continue to find the bottom?
Spring test the end of the first round, a new wave of repair struck
The current domestic coal, coke oven gas and natural gas production of methanol enterprises are still more than a certain profit margins, late April, more maintenance factory equipment recovery, the market started to significantly increase the contradiction between supply and demand increased, increasing the pace of market decline.
Device dynamics
May market supply side of the volatility again, Shandong Ming water, new energy Tengzhou Phoenix new plant plans to put into operation, and the Inner Mongolia Shi Lin early technical transformation device plan to restart, and according to Zhongyu information to understand the device to drive or restart more concentrated near the end of the month The Nearly two weeks near the current, northwest, Guanzhong multi-enterprise maintenance plan focused on the short-term market, the supply was declining trend, the market will support some.
Olefin maintenance needs are expected to be poor
As the current largest methanol downstream, methanol to olefins plant any signs of trouble, the market impact can not be ignored. And since November last year, with the methanol prices continue to rise, the port of methanol to olefins enterprises continue to struggle in the loss of the end of March Changzhou Fu Tak device due to cost pressures, parking maintenance, port olefin demand decline. Jiangsu Sheng Hong device drive, but its high raw material inventory, short-term impact on the market demand is not obvious.
And in the coal Yulin olefins plant in the beginning of the month on January 2. overhaul in January, Yang Heng Heng olefin plant on the 7th began maintenance, 5 in the middle of the coal mineral oil plant has a maintenance plan, the overall decline in domestic olefin plant, the demand for methanol The amount of decline.
Environmental protection continues, the traditional downstream load is not high
Started in April this year, Shandong, Shanxi, Anhui and other 15 provinces and cities to carry out the most stringent environmental protection inspector, most of the downstream enterprises were forced to cut production limit. And the establishment of the new security zone, making Hebei to increase the pace of environmental protection and remediation. Hebei, Shandong area dimethyl ether, formaldehyde and other traditional downstream widely distributed, the impact of environmental protection, the demand for methanol has significantly shrinkage. And noted that the impact of environmental protection supervision continued, the traditional downstream construction is difficult to significantly improve the short term.
Cut off the draft, Zhongyu information to understand, in some areas in the tight supply support, the rising signs have emerged. And with the price continued to fall, the factory profit shrinking, very price intention gradually increased, driven by the market mentality has improved, the downstream industry or have a certain need to cover short positions, Zhongyu that short-term market or stage stability, Rebound may be, but the lack of trend of high power. In the long-term market is still not optimistic, weak demand is not removed, the pattern of oversupply, the market is still in the process of repeated shocks bottoming.