During the 2025 Double Festival period, the domestic acrylonitrile prices will mainly be adjusted at a low level. As of October 9th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 8050-8150 yuan/ton, and the short distance delivery price in Shandong market is 7950-8050 yuan/ton, both slightly lower than before the festival.
Market analysis:
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In October, the domestic supply of acrylonitrile increased significantly, and some pre maintenance facilities were restarted one after another. Coupled with the increase of new production facilities, the industry’s capacity utilization rate increased to nearly 80%, while the overall demand remained relatively stable, leading to further weakening of the fundamentals. At the same time, during the long holiday period, enterprises accumulated inventory, and the market as a whole showed a situation of oversupply. Under the pressure of excess resources, the market fluctuated downward, and some acrylonitrile factories continuously lowered their quotations, dragging down the atmosphere of the spot market. However, on the first day after the holiday, businesses were mostly cautious and cautious, and the inquiry atmosphere was relatively average.
Looking back at the past three years, the acrylonitrile market experienced both ups and downs during the National Day holiday. The main reason for the market fluctuations was that acrylonitrile companies reduced production and inventory in advance to adjust inventory pressure before the holiday. In addition, downstream companies had a certain demand for stocking before the holiday, and the trading atmosphere on the market was good. Therefore, the trading center remained firm and shifted upwards. However, in recent years, with the continuous increase of domestic acrylonitrile production capacity, the problem of oversupply has become significant, resulting in a continuous decline in downstream stocking efforts.
Fundamental analysis:
On the supply side, there is currently no equipment maintenance plan for the acrylonitrile plant in October. During the holiday, the acrylonitrile plant has accumulated inventory. In addition, there is an expectation of restarting the maintenance equipment in the early stage, and there are fewer working days this month. Therefore, the pressure on the supply side of the acrylonitrile market has significantly increased.
On the demand side, in terms of domestic ABS, although some new devices have been delayed in production and some maintenance plans have been postponed, there are still plans for some new devices to be put into production, and some maintenance devices are gradually returning to normal. If there are no unplanned maintenance, the start-up rate in October will increase slightly. In terms of acrylic fiber, although there may still be fluctuations, due to frequent equipment rotation and maintenance in the early stage, the overall fluctuation amplitude is expected to be limited, and the operating rate is expected to increase slightly. But the overall demand has not changed much.
Future forecast
In terms of cost, the upstream propylene price will be dominated by changes in the supply side, and it is expected that the propylene market will operate weakly, which may weaken its cost support for acrylonitrile. In terms of supply, the maintenance equipment in early October will be restarted one after another, and the supply of acrylonitrile in the market will continue to increase. In terms of demand, the operating rates of downstream main fields such as ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide are generally maintained at a low level of 60% -70%. The support for acrylonitrile demand is limited, and the mismatch of supply and demand growth pace in the acrylonitrile industry has led to a situation of oversupply once again, and the pressure of accumulated inventory and losses will coexist. In the short term, the market will fluctuate and weaken, and there may be variables in the long-term supply side. The supply-demand relationship needs to be improved.
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