OPEC second largest oil producing countries really cause oil war?

An oil-rich province in northern Iraq will hold a referendum on the independence of the Kurds in the latter part of the month, with regard to the escalation of tensions that will have the region’s crude oil, fearing the possible outbreak of regional conflicts and oil wars.

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Since the so-called Islamic countries (IS) in some areas of Iraq in the summer of 2014, the Kurdish armed forces have taken full control of the province of Kirkuk and other disputed areas. In addition, the northern part of Iraq is not only the main source of Iraqi oil, but also part of Kurdistan – the Kurdish unofficial, but hometown for hundreds of years.

Kurds have been seeking to build their own country. After the US military overturned the Iraqi government led by Saddam Hussein in 2003, the Kurds believed that Kurdish founding had been close to their control.

Over the past two years, both the Iraqi government forces and the Kurdish armed forces have expelled the ISIS from most of the country by fighting, but the long-standing relationship between the Baghdad and the Erbil capital of the Kurdish capital The dispute has intensified.

Baghdad strongly opposed the Kurdish independent referendum to be held on September 25, and Iraqi Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said the vote was “unconstitutional and illegal.”

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On Tuesday, the central government of Iraq approved the Prime Minister “to take all means” to safeguard national unity. While Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani opposed the idea that would endanger national identity and vowed to implement a referendum.

The decision to hold a referendum could become a long-standing contradiction between Baghdad and Albiile on Kurdish oil exports and income distribution.

“The relationship between Baghdad and the Kurdish region will be the biggest challenge for oil, and the Kurds will use the upcoming referendum as a bargaining chip,” said Renad Mansour, a Iraqi expert at ChathamHouse, a London think tank, told CNBC.

Iraq is the second largest oil producer of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), according to the country’s oil minister, Jabar Al-Luaibi, said the country’s oil production is 432 million barrels per day.

“Kurdish is far from being able to export oil independently, which requires very large and expensive public facilities, and in the current oil price environment, the Kurdish independent economy,” said TorbjornSoltvedt, principal analyst at VeriskMaplecroft, responsible for the Middle East and North Africa issue. The foundation is very weak. ”

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Under the pressure of environmental protection, pesticide prices intensified

The fourth batch of central environmental protection inspections in early August has been fully launched. By the beginning of September, the central level of environmental protection supervision will be completed on the 31 provinces of the full coverage. “With the central environmental supervision to increase the intensity of the provinces and the recent introduction of the heating season, environmental protection and environmental protection projects and air pollution remediation special action, the chemical industry supply side of the contraction effect began to appear, the birth of related pesticides, coking and other chemical products a new round Price tide. “August 17, market analysts said in an interview.

“Pesticide appeared in the stock gap is expected, manufacturers generally reluctant to sell.” According to Zhengzhou Lambor Technology Co., Ltd. Deputy Minister of Foreign Investment and Investment Hou Guoying reflect the environmental storm on pesticide intermediates and related products operating rate have a greater impact The In particular, the fourth batch of central environmental supervision and supervision started, will make Zhejiang, Sichuan and other glyphosate main producing areas face a new round of production, limited production. With the arrival of the export season in September, glyphosate market supply is expected to supply out of stock, manufacturers generally reluctant to sell, traders to sell goods, product prices a single talk.

According to the reporter to understand that the fourth batch of central environmental protection supervision started the next day, the domestic glyphosate manufacturers that the closure of the offer, the market spot price index rose more than 500 yuan (t price, the same below), the domestic mainstream transaction price 22,000 yuan or so, or nearly 2.2%, some high-end products amounted to 23,000 yuan, the average price rose 7% over the beginning of July. Other varieties such as herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, etc. have varying degrees of gains.

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“Environmental impact on the impact of coal chemical industry is also very obvious, broad product.” Reporters from a number of large domestic coal chemical industry to understand that the mainstream products of different amplitude of the push up the market. Which coke products since July continuous push up, or more than 20%, and is still higher. Into the middle of August, a number of mainstream coal chemical products show gains or is brewing price adjustment. Such as high-temperature coal tar since August 7 since the continuous increase has been more than 10%, coal asphalt rose more than 4%, even the early downturn in the temperature of coal tar, industrial naphthalene and other products also began to stabilize the good, Also in the brewing stage.

Hebei Province in early August issued a heavy pollution weather response and heating season peak production of specific implementation plan clearly pointed out that the key areas of heating season coking enterprises limited production of about 30%, carbon enterprises to achieve special emission limits of the limited production of more than 50%. Heating season, environmental protection, limited production will directly affect the coal chemical products market price.

“At present, all kinds of mainstream products, broad based or proposed to rise is not from the downstream demand growth, but the environmental crisis caused by a large number of coking enterprises cut production, due to shutdown, especially the impact of some small and medium-sized coking enterprises shut down. The gradual withdrawal of products to the industry to improve the pattern of unequal competition, which regulate the operation of the enterprise may be a good thing, more conducive to the healthy development of the industry. “Inner Mongolia, a large coal chemical industry official said.

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Environmental storms also benefit basic chemical products. Reporters learned from the market line, the arrival of environmental protection storms so that many basic chemical products enterprises cut production, limited production, the end of the basic chemical products down trend, the market began to flip up. According to Henan Chemical Network statistics show that August 4 to 12, aniline, TDI, PO, pure MDI, epichlorohydrin, butadiene, butanone, styrene rose by 10.1%, 9.3%, 9.2% 8.8%, 8.5%, 7.3%, 6.6%, 4.3%.

Insiders said that by the environmental factors caused by chemical products prices tide is universal, but should not be normalized, the chemical market should respect the laws of the market, to return to rational. In contrast, environmental governance should be more normal. They hope that environmental regulation can become a means to promote the development of chemical industry norms, rather than the reasons for speculation in the market.

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