According to the price monitoring of business associations, PTA spot market prices in China continued to fall slightly today (September 11), down 0.61% from the previous trading day and 43.52% from the same period last year. PTA main futures (2001) closed at 522 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton, or 2.10% from the previous trading day.

Enterprise Name, Plant Capacity (10,000 tons/year) Recent Plant Change
Yizheng Chemical Fiber 35 Parking overhaul from August 1 to September 10 has been restarted
Fuhua Chemical Industry & Trade 450 Parking overhaul from July 9 to August 5, load increased from 70% to 90%.
Huabin Petrochemical 140 Plant is scheduled to stop shortly next week for some reason
Hengli Dalian 220 plans to be overhauled for 15 days in mid-September
Jialong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Parking overhaul on Aug. 2, restart pending
With the restart of 350,000 tons PTA equipment in Yizheng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. on the 10th, the load of the equipment rose to a high of 97%. The worries on the supply side warmed up, and the purchasing atmosphere remained poor. Traders dominated, and sporadic factories followed up.

In the raw material market, Asian PXCFR China closed at $791 per ton on the 10th day, up 6 dollars per ton from the previous trading day. Affected by the rising external price, the domestic PX price was consolidated near 6,600 yuan per ton. The PX plant of Hainan Petrochemical Company is scheduled to start in late September; the PX plant of Hengyi Brunei Company is scheduled to start in the third quarter; and the PX plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company is scheduled to start in the fourth quarter.

Downstream polyester start-up load temporarily stabilized at about 90%, cautious wait-and-see mood did not decrease, and polyester quotation of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces was temporarily stable. Among them, polyester POY (150D/48F) is 7700-8050 yuan/ton, DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) is 9200-9350 yuan/ton, FDY (150D/96F) is 7700-8000 yuan/ton. Local orders at the end of the line have rebounded. The overall starting rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 80%. However, due to the macroeconomic pressure at home and abroad, the demand of textile and garment industry will be significantly weaker than in previous years.

Business analyst Xia Ting believes that PTA plant starts to improve again, and the supply side is under pressure. Cost-side drive is not strong, downstream terminal orders follow-up is weak, PTA is expected to continue to explore in the short term.

I. The price trend of epichlorohydrin:

According to the data of business associations, the market of epichlorohydrin has been on the rise recently. Last Wednesday (Sept. 4) the average price of enterprises was 1 2166.67 yuan per ton, and on Sept. 10 the average price of enterprises was 12 666.67 yuan per ton. Epichlorohydrin rose by 4.11% in seven days.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Recently, the market of epichlorohydrin has been on the rise. The mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin on the 4th was about 12,000-12,500 yuan/ton. There was no pressure on the manufacturers to deliver goods. The mood of pull-up remained unchanged. The atmosphere of caution and wait-and-see in downstream and terminal became more serious. When the demand for replenishment was low, the volume was limited. The price of epichlorohydrin rose on the 6th, with an average price of 12,500 yuan per ton. The downstream was cautious about high-priced raw materials, with insufficient purchasing intentions and weak trading atmosphere. The average price of epichlorohydrin was 12333.33 yuan/ton on the 9th day. Some manufacturers closed the market without quotation. Traders’foreign quotations mostly followed the manufacturers’ quotations. Mid-Autumn Festival holidays are approaching, downstream inventory expectations, the willingness of the holders to buy at low prices has decreased, confidence in the future has increased, 10 mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin in 13,000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: Up-stream propylene market in Shandong Province has occasionally made up for the decline as of the 10th. The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province increased by 50-100 yuan/ton on September 1, and increased by about 50-100 yuan/ton on September 2, while only a few enterprises increased on September 3-5, remained stable on June 8, slightly declined by about 50 yuan/ton on September 9, and remained stable on September 10, except for individual enterprises. At present, the market turnover is about 7600-7750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7600 yuan/ton. 。 Up to 10 days, downstream epoxy resin with rising raw materials, the focus of discussion increased.

3. Future market forecast:

Analysts of business association epichlorohydrin think that the upstream propylene market slightly declined and had little impact on epichlorohydrin. The price of downstream epoxy resin is rising, which is good for epichlorohydrin. With the approaching of the two sections, the downstream factories are expected to stock up periodically, but there is still some resistance to high-priced raw materials. Actual procurement is cautious. However, under the strong support of tight prices, only passive follow-up can be achieved. It is expected that the short-term epichlorohydrin market will be mainly higher.

On September 10, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 104.39, which was the same as yesterday. It was 11.85% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 34.92% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Domestic ammonium nitrate market price was temporarily stable on the 10th, domestic ammonium nitrate plant operation was stable, is in the downstream demand off-season, ammonium nitrate factory shipment market is general, downstream on-demand procurement, combined with environmental protection control, the downstream domestic civil explosion industry shut down more, domestic ammonium nitrate factory start-up limited, on-site price maintained low. Bit level. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of negotiations in Shaanxi was 2000-2100 yuan/ton, the mainstream in Shandong was 1900-2000 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate went away. The situation is temporary.

Recently, the price of nitric acid in the domestic market has been weak and shocked. The price quoted by the mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu is 1600 yuan/ton, and the quotation is stable. Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1600 yuan per ton, the quotation maintained a low level. Shandong manufacturers quote 1600 yuan/ton, the price is stable. Nitric acid shipment situation is still poor, the low price trend of nitric acid has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate remains low; the domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream maintains a low level, and the market turnover is still acceptable, the market price of liquid ammonia is 333.33 yuan/ton, and the upstream cost of liquid ammonia is lower, in addition, the upstream cost of liquid ammonia is affected. Most of the manufacturers’inventory pressure has increased compared with the previous period. Some plants have been restarted and local ammonia supply has increased in the region. Especially in Shanxi and North China, most manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia. The price quoted by the manufacturers in North China is maintained at around 2900-3300 yuan/ton. The price quoted by the manufacturers in Northwest China is between 2500-2600 yuan/ton and the price of liquid ammonia is low. The downstream ammonium nitrate Market has a negative impact. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market prices remain volatile, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the later period.

The Rare Earth Index (REI) was 380 points on September 10, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.00% from its cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06) and 40.22% from its lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals is 413,500 yuan/ton, 2325,000 yuan/ton and 695,000 yuan/ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 327,500 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide is 193,000 yuan/ton; praseodymium oxide is 382,500 yuan/ton; and neodymium oxide is 329,500 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 413,500 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 1.93 million yuan per ton.

Recently, the price trend of rare earth on-site is temporarily stable, the domestic rare earth market is generally trading, the price of dysprosium and terbium metals and oxides remains high, the inquiry list of praseodymium and neodymium oxide on-site has increased recently, and the price of light rare earth oxides has maintained an upward trend. At that time, the on-site light rare earth merchants are reluctant to sell, optimistic about the future market, and recent on-site transactions. General situation. The supply of rare earth is normal in China. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazards of some products, which make the environmental protection supervision stricter. Under strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Especially some mainstream rare earth oxides are in normal supply. The price trend of rare earth market has risen. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general and the turnover has not changed much.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has been making strict investigations. Strengthening the supervision of the rare earth industry in Jiangxi Province has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The start-up of the rare earth industry is relatively low and the market is cold, which has brought some favorable support to the rare earth market. Recently, the Development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have stepped up effective measures to regulate the industry, innovate and improve the relevant management mechanism, accelerate the construction of a rational industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective protection of resources, orderly production and operation of the industry development pattern, and give full play to the special price of rare earth as a strategic resource. Meanwhile, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and national reserves.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental stringency will not decrease in the near future, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, the supply of Jiangxi rare earth industry will be reduced, but the demand of rare earth downstream will be supported in the near future. It is expected that some prices of rare earth market will continue to rise slightly.

On September 10, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 66.42, up 1.09 points from yesterday, down 44.71% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 37.17% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. The market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China is rising. The downstream factories are just in need of purchasing. Inventory of factories is still under pressure and high-end transactions are blocked. However, the orders on the market are higher than before, and the market price of phthalic anhydride keeps rising. In East China, the mainstream of neighbouring-law supply negotiations is 7000-7200 yuan/ton, naphthalene-law supply negotiations is 6500-6700 yuan/ton; in North China, the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6700-7000 yuan/ton, the market price keeps rising, some manufacturers increase the ex-factory price, downstream start-up is not high, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride. The plant operates stably, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride keeps rising.
Recently, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec has increased by 200 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton. Due to the overhaul of domestic phthalic anhydride factories, on-site supply shortage, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen, the market of imported phthalic anhydride has risen in the port area, the recent market of phthalic anhydride in the port is better, the stock of the port has dropped substantially, Up, the actual transaction price is based on negotiation. Recently, domestic overhaul facilities for phthalic anhydride have increased. The supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is very tight. Supported by the price of phthalic anhydride, the market price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. DOP prices in the downstream rose, isooctanol prices rose, and DOP costs rose. DOP prices rose, DOP downstream demand shocked and declined, customer purchasing enthusiasm was general, downstream PVC market slightly lower, DOP market mainstream transaction price 7800-7900 yuan/ton, downstream prices have risen, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to maintain a higher trend in the later period.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, PTA spot market prices in China fell slightly today (September 10), 0.50% lower than the previous trading day and 43.22% lower than the same period last year. PTA main futures shocks adjustment, the end of a small decline. Main futures (2001) closed at 5190 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton, or 0.42% from the previous trading day. At present, PTA plant load is at 96% high, the market is full of liquidity supply, the main buyers are traders and polyester factories.

Yizheng Chemical Fiber 350,000 tons PTA device was restarted on September 10. The device has been repaired since August 1. Huabin Petrochemical PTA plant is scheduled to shut down shortly next week for some reasons, with an annual capacity of 1.4 million tons. Hengli PTA plant announces the maintenance plan, and there are few later maintenance plans. As for the new plant, Sino-Thai Petrochemical Xinjiang’s 1.2 million tons PTA new plant is scheduled to be completed and put into operation on October 30 and commissioned on December 20.

In the raw material market, Asia’s PXCFR China closed at $785 per ton on September 9, up 5 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The domestic price of PX is 6 600 yuan per ton. Faced with the pressure of putting new units into operation, Hainan Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. plans to put new PX units into commission in late September. Hengyi Brunei 1.5 million tons PX plant will enter the commissioning stage. Downstream polyester start-up load near 90%, terminal weaving just need to purchase, cautious wait-and-see mood does not decrease, Jiangsu and Zhejiang mainstream factories polyester quotation temporarily stable, promotional preferential shipment, polyester POY (150D/48F) market price range in 7700-8050 yuan/ton.

Business analyst Xia Ting believes that PX, PTA new device supply boost expectations, there are some worries on the supply side, the cost support is relatively limited, and downstream demand “Jinjiu” performance is weak, PTA market is expected to be weak adjustment in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the market price of asphalt was stable this week, and the price of asphalt was reported at 3546 yuan/ton, which was equal to the price of asphalt last week.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: The international oil price in the latter half of this week has been rising day after day, but the market demand for asphalt is stable as a whole. This week, the market price of asphalt has not followed the rise of crude oil price.

Industry Chain: The Sino-US trade war continues, and crude oil is blocked from going up in the absence of a large environment. However, Russia has declared a strict cut in production, coupled with the deterioration of the situation in the United States and Iran, the market sentiment is growing. WTI crude oil futures have risen for four consecutive days, reaching $57 per barrel. Last week, WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose by 2.18% and 0.86% respectively.

Asphalt market: This week, Northeast China has abundant foreign reserves, insufficient market demand, and refinery shipments are constrained. Liaohe Petrochemical Asphalt Price was sharply reduced by 250 yuan/ton. The terminal projects in Shandong and North China are still under construction, with little change in total demand. In East China, inventory continues to degrade better, but the number of new contracts is relatively small. At present, Shandong and Northeast markets have more low-price goods, and the asphalt market lacks effective project support. The overall performance of asphalt price is stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business associations, believes that international crude oil is expected to rise, but overall, the support of asphalt prices is relatively small, and the price of value asphalt futures market is severely suppressed. It is expected that the price of asphalt will remain stable next week.

Domestic demand for styrene is very strong. From 2006 to 2018, China’s export of styrene is very small and its dependence on imports is high. In 2006, China’s import of styrene was 2.343 million tons, and then gradually increased. By 2015, the import of styrene reached a peak of 3.744 million tons, and in 2018, the import dropped sharply to 2.914 million tons, mainly due to the rapid release of new domestic production capacity.

Before 2006, due to the serious shortage of domestic styrene supply and demand, the import dependence was high, and in 2004 the import dependence was as high as 75%. In 2006, with the release of new domestic production capacity of styrene, domestic import dependence of styrene decreased from 65% in 2005 to 52% in 2006. From 2007 to 2009, the output growth of SM’s main downstream products was faster than that of SM, and most of the new production capacity in 2009 was concentrated in the second half of the year. Although some of the devices were built, they were not formally put into operation, so the import dependence rebounded from 2006 for three consecutive years. From 2010 to 2018, with the expansion of large-scale units in domestic enterprises and the commissioning of a number of new units, the dependence of domestic styrene imports has decreased year by year.

From the monthly import volume of styrene in China, the monthly import volume is relatively balanced, and the monthly import volume remains between 240,000 tons and 310,000 tons, with no seasonal change. Moreover, such a balanced amount of imports shows that the market is very mature, and domestic demand should mainly be based on long-term orders, and domestic recipients have a high acceptance of international market prices, indicating that domestic demand for styrene is mainly hard demand and speculative is not high.

In terms of import and export trade modes, styrene import trade has continued to diversify in recent years, in which the general trade mode occupies the mainstream position. According to the statistical data of 2018, the general trade volume is 2474,000 tons, accounting for 84.9%; the second is the import processing trade, accounting for 219,000 tons, accounting for 7.5%; the third is the bonded regulatory field. The trade volume of import and export goods is 145,000 tons, accounting for 5.0%. From 2014 to 2016, the proportion of general trade modes increased gradually, while the foreign processing trade showed a shrinking trend, which was related to the overall market pattern of domestic demand and export constraints. In 2018, the import volume declined, the proportion of general trade declined, and the foreign processing trade increased, mainly due to the gradual release of domestic capacity, the further decline of import volume and the stimulation of the development of foreign processing trade.

Because of strong market demand and huge market gap, China has provided digestive space for the excess styrene capacity in the world. Many developed countries or regions of petrochemical industry have put their products into our market one after another. China imports styrene mainly from Korea, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Iran, the United States, Singapore and other places. In 2018, due to the imposition of anti-dumping duties on styrene originating in Korea, the United States and Taiwan Province of China, Korea lost its long-standing position as the first exporter of styrene to China. In 2018, the top three countries and regions in the import volume of styrene were Saudi Arabia, Japan and Taiwan Province of China.

In 2008, the top three sources of domestic styrene imports were Korea, Japan and Taiwan Province of China, which accounted for 86% of the total imports of styrene. Starting from 2009, new production units in the Middle East quickly seized market share by virtue of their rich petrochemical resources and low cost advantages. From 2009 to 2012, the proportion of goods in the Middle East increased year by year, and the market share of Japanese and Korean goods was gradually squeezed. Since 2012, Saudi Arabia has imported more styrene than Japan, ranking second. In 2018, there were 761,000 tons of styrene from Saudi Arabia, which became the largest source of styrene imports in China.

In recent years, due to the strong demand of polyester industry, the demand for ethylene glycol in the domestic market has maintained a rapid growth trend, thus promoting the increase of ethylene glycol production capacity. In recent years, many large-scale ethylene glycol production plants have been built and put into operation in China. With the continuous increase of ethylene glycol production capacity in China, the output is also increasing.

Although the production capacity and output of ethylene glycol in China have increased rapidly, it still can not meet the growing market demand of domestic polyester and so on. A large number of imports are needed every year, and the import volume is increasing year by year. At present, China’s ethylene glycol products are mainly used in the production of polyester, antifreeze liquid and adhesives, paint solvents, cold-resistant lubricants, surfactants and polyester polyols. Among them, polyester is the main consumption area of ethylene glycol in China, and its consumption accounts for 94.0% of the total domestic consumption. The other 6.0% is used for antifreeze, adhesives, paint solvents, cold-resistant lubricants, surfactants and polyester polyols.

In recent years, the production of polyester (including polyester fiber, polyester resin and film) has developed rapidly in China. In 2010, the production of polyester will reach 19 million tons, and the demand for ethylene glycol will reach 6.65 million tons. With the consumption of antifreeze and other aspects, it is expected that the total demand for ethylene glycol in China will continue to grow at a high speed.

The capacity of domestic ethylene plant is about 6.46 million tons, and the start-up rate of the plant is 70.4%, which is 1.8 percentage points lower than the end of August and 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The capacity of the coal-based ethylene glycol plant is about 4.47 million tons, and the start-up rate of the plant is 51.6%, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than that at the end of August.

On the whole, the domestic ethylene glycol production enterprises are showing losses in varying degrees, the start-up rate of ethylene plant is declining, and the start-up rate of coal-based ethylene glycol plant is reduced to 50%.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of ethylene glycol dropped sharply in June, and the average price of ethylene glycol also decreased, showing weak demand as a whole.

As for port inventory, data show that as of July 29, the inventory of ethylene glycol ports in eastern China was about 921.5 million tons, down 218,000 tons from the end of last month, a 19% annualized decline, and an increase of 48% over the same period last year. Among them, Zhangjiagang’s inventory was 6605 tons, down 17,000 tons from the end of last month, an increase of 2%; Taiyuan’s inventory was 93,000 tons, down 40,000 tons from last month; Ningbo’s inventory was 87,000 tons, down 0.1 million tons from last month; Jiangyin’s inventory was 20,000 tons, down 38,000 tons from last month; Shanghai and Changshu’s inventory was 91,000 tons, down 36,000 tons from last month. Tons.

In summary, the domestic ethylene glycol production enterprises show losses, the start-up rate of ethylene plant has fallen, the start-up rate of coal-based ethylene glycol plant has dropped to about 50%, and the domestic supply has been reduced. The stock of ethylene glycol port in East China is about 921,500 tons, and the stock keeps decreasing. Downstream polyester start-up high drop, weaving enterprises also began to decline, polyester and grey fabric inventory at a high level, facing the pressure of de-inventory, polyester production and marketing at the beginning of the month is relatively cold, to the end of the month production and marketing gradually warmed up. Ethylene glycol futures prices gradually rebounded after bottoming in the middle of the month, and are expected to enter a strong trend until the early downstream inventory is digested. The operational strategies are as follows:

Transaction contract: Ethylene glycol 2001.

Trading Direction: Buy.

It is planned to enter the venue in two batches, occupying 40%-60% of the total capital and buying 500-600 hands.

First entry interval: 4620 – 4680 yuan / ton, target price: 4720 – 5480 yuan / ton.

Stop loss price: 4320-4580 yuan/ton, entry position 300-400 hands, occupying 30-40% of capital.

Risk factors requiring attention:

1. Port stocks have increased substantially.

2. Demand for polyester decreased more than expected.

3. The macro atmosphere is tense.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic butanone market has been increasing rapidly for several days since the beginning of last week (September 2). As of Friday (September 6), according to the comprehensive quotation of several mainstream regions, the overall average price of butanone market is around 7,900 yuan/ton, up about 1,200 yuan/ton from the end of August (August 30). The proportion was 17.82%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The quotations of several butanone companies have risen since the end of August. Since September 2, the price has been rising steadily. The price has been soaring all the time. The daily increase is 300-400 yuan/ton. Until September 6, the butanone market is still in a strong upward trend. At present, the supply of factories is tight and the stock is not serious. Full, the overall inventory of traders is very low, sales sentiment is obvious, tight spot makes the market warming up this week, turnover has improved. At present, the market quotation of South China is around 8200-8400 yuan/ton, while that of North China and East China is around 8300 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The price of upstream raw material liquefied gas has remained stable this week, with some areas rising slightly. At present, the market price of liquefied gas in North China is stable, and the mainstream price is around 3500-3600 yuan/ton. The price of liquefied petroleum gas in eastern China has risen, with the mainstream price between 3400 and 3450 yuan/ton, and the market turnover is normal.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 21 kinds of commodities rising in the list of 58 prices on September 5, 2019. They are concentrated in steel plate (5 kinds) and non-ferrous plate (4 kinds). The top three commodities are WTI crude oil (4.30%), eggs (2.73%) and iron ore (Australia) (2.67%). There were 8 kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio, focusing on non-ferrous (4 kinds in total) and agricultural and sideline (1 kind in total). The first three commodities falling were nickel (-2.07%), coking coal (-1.36%) and soybean meal (-1.16%). On September 5th, the average increase and decrease was 0.28%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business society data analysts believe that under the serious shortage of spot, the butanone market is expected to be in a stable and strong consolidation state next week.