I. Trend analysis

As shown in the chart above, the domestic copper price fell slightly today. The average domestic spot copper price was 46816.67 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous trading day, down 2.79% from the beginning of the year and down 7.39% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Current copper prices have been mainly low volatility, during the National Day holidays, macroeconomic data in Europe and the United States show weakness, and market worries about the global economic slowdown continue to ferment. Under the background of macro-empty, copper price pressure is more obvious. However, global copper stocks remained low, LME copper stocks fell by nearly 50,000 tons from the beginning of September, and domestic copper stocks fell by 40,000 tons to 117,000 tons from September. In addition, with the recent maintenance of low copper prices, the price gap between domestic copper prices and Foshan scrap copper remains below 4000 yuan/ton, and the tightening of scrap copper supply is conducive to boosting electricity copper consumption. However, the consumer side did not improve. In August, the start-up rate of copper strip and foil enterprises was 69.46%, down 7.31 percentage points from the same period last year. In terms of power grid, the investment of power grid projects in August totaled 237.8 billion yuan, a cumulative decrease of 15.2% over the same period of last year.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In the light of the above situation, copper analysts from the Nonferrous Branch of Business Association believe that supply and demand are weak, and copper prices are expected to remain low and volatile.

Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market has seen both ups and downs. As of October 9, the domestic market price of butadiene was 11784 yuan/ton, up 13.76% annually and 0.76% year-on-year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The domestic butadiene market has seen both ups and downs. After the stabilization of Huajin plant in North China, it restarted for export. The transaction price was slightly higher. It was difficult to find a low-price offer in North China. The middleman sent the price reference to 11550-11650 yuan/ton. However, due to a small number of supply and flow pats from manufacturers, the downstream market expectations were empty and the inquiry intention was not high. Affected by the northern atmosphere and the shutdown of a Shunding factory in the downstream of East China, the merchants have certain expectations for the export of raw materials. Therefore, the atmosphere is also cautious. They are sent to the price reference of 11800-12000 yuan/ton for discussion.

Enterprises: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 # long-term parking; 1 # and 2 # total 120,000 tons/year plant normal operation. The 165,000 tons/year unit of Zhenhai Refinery and Chemical Company operates normally, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export. The 120,000 tons/year plant of Liaotong Chemical Company operates normally, and the trading range is 11,110-11,170 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical 160,000 tons/year plant is in normal operation, and there is no export for the time being.

Market: Butadiene market inquiries in East China are limited. Businessmen pay more attention to the arrival of late shipments, and cautious market expectations lead to low downstream inquiry intention, which is sent to the price reference of about 11800 yuan/ton. The butadiene market in Shandong is limited, the northern export manufacturers have no obvious inventory pressure for the time being, and the supply price is strong enough to support the middleman’s offer intention at about 11500-11600 yuan/ton; however, the downstream market expectations for the late market are weak, the inquiry intention is low, and the actual single negotiation is weak.

Industry chain: Downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, the mainstream sales company of styrene-butadiene rubber supply price stability, the actual single delivery mostly heard inverted price. The mainstream prices of Fushun and Qilu 1502E in North China are between 1120 and 11300 yuan/ton, while the mainstream prices of Qilu 1502E in East China are around 11400 yuan/ton.

Cis-butadiene rubber: domestic cis-butadiene rubber ex-factory supply price has not been adjusted, market quotation interval has been sorted out, traders generally hold narrow positions, tentative offer, along with the market delivery is the majority; but the first return to the market after the festival, turnover is unsatisfactory, and there are many parts of inverted butadiene benzene, individual inverted sources of cis-butadiene dragged low, so the transaction price or low-end interval.

3. Future Market Forecast

Although the price performance of some manufacturers in Northeast China is strong, the market atmosphere is skewed due to some supply-flow patches, and the arrival of shipments in the second half of the month is relatively abundant. Short-term market is difficult to support clearly. Butadiene analysts from business associations expect that the market will be weak and consolidate mainly. Suggestions are made to pay attention to the closing guidelines.

Price Trend

The market price of NBR rose sharply in September. According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of NBR at the beginning of the month was 16466 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 17566 yuan/ton. The price of NBR at the end of the month was 6.68% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

II. Market Trend Analysis

At the beginning of the month, NBR was mainly stable. Although the ex-factory price of NBR increased slightly at the beginning of the month, the downstream demand was light and the purchasing atmosphere was weak. Traders mainly shipped NBR, and the market offer of NBR was basically stable. According to business association monitoring, on September 2, Lanzhou Petrochemical NBR factory price increased 200 yuan/ton, 305E 16400 yuan/ton, N41E 16100 yuan/ton, 3308E 16400 yuan/ton and Shunze NBR 3355 factory price 16 000 yuan/ton.

Since mid-September, on the one hand, due to the impact of soaring crude oil, raw material butadiene has risen sharply, forming a greater pressure on the price of nitrile-butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of raw material Butadiene on September 16 was 10 401 yuan/ton, and on September 29, the price of butadiene was 1 1845 yuan/ton, up 13.66 percent as a whole. On the other hand, the domestic NBR start-up rate was as low as 50% in September, and the manufacturers and social stocks were on the low side. According to business associations, as of mid-September, the output of several major NBR manufacturers in China was only around 6,000 tons, which was lower than before. The reduction of supply supported the price of NBR to a certain extent. In mid-month, the factory price of NBR in Lanzhou Petrochemical Company increased by 600 yuan/ton, 305E by 17,000 yuan/ton, N41E by 16,700 yuan/ton and 3308E by 17,000 yuan/ton.

Affected by the environmental protection factors of National Day, some terminal factories in North China were shut down one after another, demand was further reduced, purchasing of high-priced nitrile-butadiene in downstream areas was reduced, the rising trend of nitrile-butadiene rubber price was stopped, and the factory price of Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was slightly reduced by 200 yuan/ton at the end of the month. According to the monitoring of business associations, the factory price of nitrile-butadiene rubber in Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was lowered by 200 yuan/ton on September 29, and the 305E was reported to 41E is 16500 yuan/ton and 3308E is 16800 yuan/ton.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Business analysts believe that due to the sharp rise in butadiene, the price of NBR has risen sharply. There are still two points to be seen in the future market: first, whether the high price of butadiene can be sustained, and if it can be sustained, it will continue to support NBR; second, whether the downstream demand will increase after the National Day, and if the demand is still weak at that time, NBR will still fall.

On September 30, the hydrogen peroxide commodity index was 127.17, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.39% from the cyclical peak of 216.98 points (2017-12-24), and up 77.27% from the lowest point of 71.74 on August 03, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

In September, the peak season of hydrogen peroxide did not perform well. Prices fell sharply. At the beginning of the month, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 1250 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 1170 yuan/ton. The price fell by 6.4%.

Products: In August, hydrogen peroxide experienced a surge, an increase of more than 20%. In September, hydrogen peroxide still wanted to maintain a rising trend. At the beginning of the month, the mainstream price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide was 1260-1350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream in the region was 1500-1600 yuan / ton, the price rose 50-100 yuan / ton.

Since September 4, hydrogen peroxide has entered a long downward trend, with prices falling by more than 10% as a whole. With the Mid-Autumn Festival approaching, dangerous goods embargo during the market news festival, the terminal’s purchasing of hydrogen peroxide is limited. Price increases in the paper industry are frequent, but in fact the market is generally rising. Terminal performance is not good, hydrogen peroxide Market returned to rational, falling one after another. The price of mainstream hydrogen peroxide 27.5% yuan 1180-1320 yuan / ton, the price fell 30-80 yuan / ton. The main quotation of 27.5% yuan is 1200-1250 yuan / ton, and the price is down 10-50 yuan / ton. The main quotation in the area such as Qi and etc. is 1500-1600 yuan / ton, and the price is flat.

After the Mid Autumn Festival, near the national day, the downstream receiving goods are not active, ready to overhaul factories, the terminal demand is generally, and many policies are unclear before the national day, the wait-and-see attitude is strong, and the procurement is not active. At present, there is no wish to stock up before the National Day, the Mid-Autumn Festival high-speed restrictions, some water sales are not smooth, inventory squeeze is too much, continued to fall sharply. The regional mainstream quoted 1100 yuan / ton, the price fell 100 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation of Yuan area was 1080-1240 yuan / ton, the price dropped 100 yuan / ton, and the area was 1400 yuan / ton, the price was relatively stable. In September, hydrogen peroxide enters the downward channel as a whole.

Downstream paper: in early September, driven by the market atmosphere of “golden nine silver ten”, prices began to rise. Some of the paper mills issued a notice of price rise, and the reason for the rise may be related to the recovery of industry confidence and the preparation of double 11. In late September, driven by Ninglong, Liwen and other large factories, there was a small price hike after the Mid-Autumn Festival. Many paper enterprises joined the price hike camp one after another. As a result, small and medium-sized paper mills followed the price hike. With the gradual arrival of Double Eleventh, New Year’s Day and Spring Festival, orders began to release gradually, and demand will also increase. In September, because Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and the surrounding areas are affected by the National Day and the autumn and winter environmental protection policies, the paper mills are affected by comprehensive factors such as suspension and production restriction, and the production costs are constantly increasing, which makes the price of paper products in the region constantly rising.

Industry: In September 2019, the business association commodity supply and demand index (BCI) was 0.31, with an average increase of 3.77%. This reflects that the manufacturing economy was expanding compared with last month, and the economy was running smoothly.

Business Club hydrogen peroxide analysts believe that during the Eleventh period, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers and terminals continue to carry out parking maintenance, the market supply is tight, and hydrogen peroxide prices are easy to rise and fall in October.

International oil prices fell sharply this week as geopolitical risks eased.

London Brent crude futures fell 3.7% in the week, the biggest weekly decline since early August. U.S. crude oil futures fell 3.6% in the week, the biggest weekly decline since mid-July.

The crude oil futures are only slightly higher than the level before Saudi oil facilities were attacked in September 14th. Manish Raj, chief financial officer of Velandera Energy Partners, said the supply-demand balance was having an impact on oil prices as geopolitical concerns gave way to supply and demand realities.

Saudi officials say Saudi oil production has recovered to an average of more than 11 million barrels a day since the attack on the country’s main oil facilities. Raj said Saudi Arabia’s strong commitment to the market and the attack on oil facilities in the middle of this month was a one-off event, which eased market concerns.

Jim Rietbusch, President of Ritter Busch associates, believes that because of the lack of progress in the economic and trade situation and the impeachment survey launched against the US president, investor risk appetite has been reduced. Reverse seasonal increases in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have increased downward pressure on oil prices.

Tariq Zahir, executive director of dikka capital consultancy, said that if Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities were not attacked, the trading range of oil prices might be lower. If there is no escalation of tension in the Middle East or obstruction of oil supply, the premium in the oil market will gradually disappear. Future demand prospects have become more sluggish.

According to data released by the US oilfield technology service company, the number of active drilling rig in the United States continued to decline during the week, with a decrease of 6 to 713.

According to today’s oil price website September 27th, IEA, executive director of the International Energy Agency (the International Energy Agency), said on Friday that if the global economy deteriorates further, IEA may again reduce its oil demand growth forecast for the next two years.

“It will depend on the global economy,” bill Rohr said at a forum in South Korea. If there are already signs that the global economy is weakening, then we may lower our expectations for oil demand.

IEA and many other organizations and analysts, including OPEC, have lowered their oil demand growth expectations several times this year because of signs of a slowdown in global economic growth.

The IEA’s latest drop in oil demand growth was in its August oil market report, in which it cut its forecast by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day between January and May, at a growth rate of only 520,000 barrels per day. This is the lowest increase since 2008. IEA also lowered its forecast for oil demand growth in 2020 by 50,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day in August.

In its latest oil market report released in September, the IEA maintained its forecast for August, with oil demand expected to grow by 1.1 million barrels a day this year and 1.3 million barrels a day next year.

Price quotation: According to the monitoring data of business association (100ppi.com), on September 23, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cationic) market was about 16333.33 yuan/ton, and on September 29, 16333.33 yuan/ton. At present, the main quotation range of domestic market of polyacrylamide is: cationic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 16200-18100 yuan/ton, anionic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 10000-12100 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: It is known that in mid-September, the main price of acrylonitrile in the upper reaches was about 12300 yuan/ton, while in the latter part, the main price was raised by 200 yuan/ton on 24th, and the current main price was 12 500 yuan/ton. The downstream demand for polyacrylamide is relatively stable. Gongyi City, one of the main domestic production areas, began to resume production in the late ten days, and the supply of goods has gradually returned to normal.

Industry: Since late July, the intermittent shutdown has basically ended. Manufacturers have resumed production one after another. The shutdown cycle has returned. In late July, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province, received the “shutdown notice” recently. The notice requires that: according to the city’s environmental pollution situation and future pollution. Weather situation analysis, the municipal fortification office requires all deep management enterprises to stop production before acceptance, according to the fortification office scheduling or acceptance can be returned to production. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: resumption of production in August for 10 days and resumption of production on 15 days. According to the manufacturer, the suspension was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on 8 September. The local environmental protection inspection was strict. All local enterprises in Gongyi were asked to stop production for environmental protection management and maintenance. After the National Games on 8 September, the local factories did not receive the notice of start-up immediately, and strict environmental protection inspection was in progress. In late April and September, Gongyi local factories began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal.

Future forecast: Business association analysis shows that the impact of environmental protection renovation, National Games and National Day on water treatment plants in Gongyi District, Henan Province, one of the main production areas, has weakened. Local manufacturers have resumed construction in the latter half of the year. Inventory shortages have been solved one after another. It is expected that after the 11th Golden Week, “gold, nine silver and ten” will be achieved. The traditional peak season effect will be released in October.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, urea ex-factory prices in Shandong rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising from 1810.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1813.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.18%, down 11.11% from the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index of 84.34 on September 20.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong rose slightly. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1800 yuan/ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1790 yuan/ton this weekend, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation increased by 10 yuan/ton; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 1850 yuan/ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

Market demand: As for agricultural demand, farming in Shandong is about to begin, and agricultural demand will gradually rise, with some manufacturers operating at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by environmental protection policy and National Day security. There are too many shutdowns and the demand for urea has fallen considerably, thus affecting the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream products have risen or fallen: natural gas prices have fallen considerably, the quotation fell from 2883.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2793.33 at the end of the week, a decline of 3.12%, a decline of 34.79% compared with the same period last year; liquid ammonia prices have risen slightly this week, from 3226.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3286.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.86%, compared with the same period last year. It fell 6.67%. Urea cost support is general. Melamine quotation downstream this week is temporarily stable. Purchasing capacity is general, which has a negative impact on urea prices. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the National Day, the urea market in Shandong Province has risen sharply. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that with the advent of National Day, the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness has greatly declined. In addition, the current agricultural demand has not yet arrived, the urea market has a strong game atmosphere, and the start-up cost has gradually increased, leading to urea market prices. It’s hard to maintain. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will rise mainly after the National Day.

Price Trend

The reference price of caprolactam on September 27 was 12600.00, up 4.71% compared with September 1 (12033.33), according to the business association’s list. On September 27, the caprolactam commodity index was 63.37, which was 36.63% lower than the 100.00 point in the cycle (2017-03-02), and 8.96% higher than the 58.16 point on May 16, 2017. (Note: Period refers to 2017-03-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: Up to September 27, Shandong Luxi Chemical Caprolactam liquid price 12300 yuan/ton, cash out of the factory, the first and second phase of the plant normal start-up operation, the actual transaction can be negotiated; Hubei Sanning caprolactam liquid quoted 12900 yuan/ton, the contract is the main, 140,000 tons of caprolactam plant normal operation. Fujian Tianchen caprolactam liquid price is 12700 yuan/ton, the plant is in normal operation, acceptance delivery. Domestic caprolactam start-up rate is stable.

Industry chain: Upstream cyclohexanone weak finishing, price stability, cost support is limited. On September 27, the reference price of cyclohexanone was 9000.00, which was 10.66% higher than that on September 1 (8133.33). The downstream PA6 market atmosphere is cold and insufficient. On September 27, the reference price of PA6 was 14566.67, up 6.72% compared with September 1 (13650.00).

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, on September 26, 2019, there were 8 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector. The top three commodities were DMF (3.52%), OX (2.99%) and aggregated MDI (2.35%). There are 14 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are trichloromethane (-13.64%), dichloromethane (-4.08%) and propylene oxide (-1.61%). The average daily rise and fall was -0.13%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of business association caprolactam believe that: the price of raw materials in the upstream began to fall, the domestic spot supply of caprolactam was small, the pressure of environmental protection in the North increased, the market of PA6 was delayed, and the price of caprolactam was firm before the festival. It is expected that caprolactam will be stable after the festival. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes of raw materials and terminals.

With the devaluation of RMB, zero tariff on exports and the initiative of “One Belt and One Road”, the export quantity of compound fertilizer in China has increased rapidly this year, especially the export of ternary compound fertilizer. It is noteworthy that with the development of domestic process technology and the improvement of product quality, the import quantity of ternary compound fertilizer in China has declined.

Customs statistics show that the export volume of ternary compound fertilizer in China reached 5447,000 tons in January-July 2019, an increase of 214% over the same period last year, and the monthly average price in January-July was 318 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 27.89% over the same period last year. Judging from the specific months, the number of July only declined compared with the same period last year, while the number of other months increased compared with the same period last year, with an increase of 623% in February. From the point of view of export areas, China’s ternary compound fertilizer mainly exports to 92 countries and regions such as Myanmar and the Philippines, of which the largest number is exported to Myanmar, followed by the Philippines, which accounts for about 80% of the total export volume.

In addition to the increase in ternary compound fertilizer exports, the export of binary compound fertilizer has also increased slightly this year. According to customs statistics, from January to July 2019, the export volume of binary compound fertilizer reached 752,900 tons, an increase of 35.98% over the same period last year. From the point of view of export areas, China’s binary compound fertilizer mainly exports to 34 countries and regions such as the Philippines and Brazil, among which the top 10 countries account for 92.25% of the total export volume.

Xu Shuxian, a fertilizer analyst at Jinlianchuang, believes that this year’s substantial increase in the export of compound fertilizers is mainly supported by zero tariffs. In mid-December 2018, in order to meet the needs of the reform of the export management system and promote the structural adjustment, quality improvement and efficiency of the energy and resources industry, it was decided that 94 commodities such as fertilizer and apatite would no longer be subject to export tariffs as of January 1, 2019. That is to say, from January 1, 2019, China has implemented zero tariff policy for the export of compound fertilizers, both binary and ternary.

“Although China’s compound fertilizer production capacity is excessive, there are still some parts that need to be imported, especially high-end ternary compound fertilizer, with an annual import volume of about 1 million tons. However, in recent years, with the development of new fertilizers and the improvement of production technology, imports have a downward trend. “Xu Shuxian said. According to customs statistics, the total import volume of ternary compound fertilizer in China was 875,000 tons from January to July 2019, down 1.69% from the same period last year, and the average monthly export price was 487 US dollars/ton, down 6.80% from last year’s average monthly price. In January, April and June alone, compared with the same period last year, there was an increase, while in other months, there was a decrease of 50% in July.

From the point of view of source countries, the import of ternary compound fertilizer in China mainly comes from 30 countries and regions, such as Norway, Russian Federation, Belgium and Finland. Norway, Russian Federation, Belgium and Finland are still the main sources of ternary compound fertilizer import in China. According to statistical data, from January to July 2019, China imported 308,200 tons of ternary compound fertilizer from Norway, accounting for 35.22% of the total import; from January to July, 207,000 tons of ternary compound fertilizer from the Russian Federation, accounting for 23.68% of the total import; and from Belgium and Finland, the import volume was 171,300 tons and 107,200 tons, accounting for the proportion. 19.57% and 12.24% respectively.

Xu Shuxian believes that, on the whole, export growth and import decline are the trend of compound hypertrophy, which is not only conducive to alleviating domestic excess capacity and supporting domestic supply, but also conducive to improving the international status and voice of Chinese compound fertilizer and achieving the goal of “going out”.