According to the price monitoring of business associations, urea ex-factory prices in Shandong rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising from 1810.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1813.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.18%, down 11.11% from the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index of 84.34 on September 20.
II. Market Analysis
Products: This week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong rose slightly. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1800 yuan/ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1790 yuan/ton this weekend, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation increased by 10 yuan/ton; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 1850 yuan/ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable.
Market demand: As for agricultural demand, farming in Shandong is about to begin, and agricultural demand will gradually rise, with some manufacturers operating at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by environmental protection policy and National Day security. There are too many shutdowns and the demand for urea has fallen considerably, thus affecting the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.
Industry chain: upstream products have risen or fallen: natural gas prices have fallen considerably, the quotation fell from 2883.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2793.33 at the end of the week, a decline of 3.12%, a decline of 34.79% compared with the same period last year; liquid ammonia prices have risen slightly this week, from 3226.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3286.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.86%, compared with the same period last year. It fell 6.67%. Urea cost support is general. Melamine quotation downstream this week is temporarily stable. Purchasing capacity is general, which has a negative impact on urea prices. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.
3. Future Market Forecast
After the National Day, the urea market in Shandong Province has risen sharply. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that with the advent of National Day, the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness has greatly declined. In addition, the current agricultural demand has not yet arrived, the urea market has a strong game atmosphere, and the start-up cost has gradually increased, leading to urea market prices. It’s hard to maintain. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will rise mainly after the National Day.