Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the stable operation of soda ash this week is dominant. The average market price of East China during the week to the weekend was about 1733.33 yuan/ton, up 6.66 yuan/ton from last week, up 0.39%, down 18.37% from last year. The light soda commodity index on September 6 was 88.89, which was the same as yesterday. It was 24.58% lower than the cyclical peak of 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 40.76% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic soda price maintained stable operation, the market was weak and stable, the manufacturers’orders were sufficient. At present, the domestic light alkali mainstream ex-factory price was 1580-1770 yuan/ton; the domestic heavy alkali mainstream to the terminal price was 1750-1850 yuan/ton. This week, the heavy alkali market did not change much, the manufacturers’ shipment situation was relatively smooth, and the market stock was bullish. It is anticipated that manufacturers will implement more end-of-month pricing.

Industry chain: the downstream cryolite plant is running normally at present, the factory stock is sufficient and pressure-free, the ex-factory quotation is temporarily stable; the price of sodium pyrosulfite continues to run at the bottom this week, the overall market is still depressed, the cost of raw materials continues to depress, the upstream and downstream trading entities are cautious in buying and selling as a whole, and the downstream trading entities are watching. Attitude is strong, domestic sodium pyrosulfite market prices continued to operate at a low level this week. This week, the downstream glass industry will welcome gold, silver and silver. Enterprises have a high enthusiasm for production. The glass market enters the traditional peak season, with a steady upward trend and a slight price increase. It is expected that in the traditional peak season, there is still a possibility of partial upward adjustment, with limited space.

Industry: This week, the domestic soda market reorganizes and operates mainly. The manufacturers of soda plant maintenance have decreased, the starting load has increased, the overall market turnover is mild, the demand for heavy soda is relatively weak and stable, which has brought some support to soda price. In addition, the current stock of enterprises is not high, and some low-end price transactions have increased.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that: this week, the domestic light alkali market has been running steadily, the number of maintenance manufacturers has decreased, the supply of enterprises is relatively stable, and the delivery situation is weak and stable. It is expected that the soda market or narrow-band consolidation will dominate in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

Price Trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus rose this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus on September 1 was 15933.33 yuan/ton, and on September 7 was 18600 yuan/ton. Within a week, the price rose by 16.74%.

On September 7, the yellow phosphorus commodity index was 117.72, up 5.27 points from yesterday, down 27.06% from the cyclical peak of 161.39 points (2019-07-28), and up 30.83% from the lowest point of 89.98 on September 05, 2018. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: Yellow phosphorus prices have returned to a high level this week, and the spot market of yellow phosphorus is very tight. At present, yellow phosphorus enterprises in Guizhou have stopped production in an all-round way, while some enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan have stopped quoting, and the contract is the main one. Yellow phosphorus Market Spot tension, strong wait-and-see sentiment of enterprises, the focus continued to move upwards. At present, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is 18,000-20,000 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 17800 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: This week, the phosphate ore market continued to be weak and stable, and intra-site transactions remained light and normal. This week, coke prices were stable, and the mainstream price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) market was 2,080 yuan per ton. The price of phosphoric acid in the downstream market rose as a whole this week. The peak season of downstream pesticide enterprises is coming.

The index of yellow phosphorus industry chain on September 7 was 104.27, up 1.78 points from yesterday, down 16.09% from 124.27 points in the cycle (2019-07-24) and 30.84% from 79.69 points on October 7, 2018. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date)

3. Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the business and chemical branch believe that the yellow phosphorus market is short of cash, the start-up rate is low everywhere, downstream demand is on the upward trend, the market is well supported, and the price is expected to remain narrow and upward in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic caprolactam market price dropped this month. The average ex-factory price of caprolactam was 12983 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 12003 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.32%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At the beginning of the month, the price of caprolactam liquids market dropped sharply. From mid-month to the end of the month, the price of caprolactam liquids began to fluctuate. The mainstream price of domestic liquid caprolactam market is RMB 1210-12300 per ton. As of August 31, the price of caprolactam liquids in Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry was 11600 yuan/ton, cash was discharged from the factory, and the first and second phases of caprolactam liquids were running normally; the actual transaction was negotiable; the price of caprolactam liquids in Sanning, Hubei Province was 12,200 yuan/ton, the contract was the main one, 140,000 tons of caprolactam liquids normally, and the price of caprolactam liquids in Tianchen, Fujian 00 yuan/ton, normal operation of the device. At present, the opening rate of caprolactam plant is stable, and the spot supply in the market is still acceptable.

Industry chain: The upstream market of cyclohexanone first fell and then rose in August. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the price of cyclohexanone was 8333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 8133 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 2.40% in the month. Prices fell 34.13% over the same period last year. During the month, Luxi and Haili cyclohexanone export is unstable, spot supply is not much, chemical fiber market demand is general, cyclohexanone fluctuates in the range of 500 yuan/ton. The downstream PA6 market is weak and prices are falling. Traders’mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for Sino-Viscose is about 13650.00 yuan/ton, which is 2.50% lower than that at the beginning of the month. Domestic PA6 spot supply is relatively adequate, downstream demand follow-up improvement is limited, maintain just needed procurement. In the mid-term, the US news of the postponement of the release of China’s tariff policy was positive. Domestic business confidence improved and the decline of PA6 eased. However, high-price orders were still difficult to deliver, traders had greater resistance to shipment, and buyers and sellers were cautious in their operation.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were 37 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%). There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%.

3. Future Market Forecast

The analyst of caprolactam of business association thinks: At present, the caprolactam market is affected by terminal, and the overall situation is weak. The demand for caprolactam is hampered by the rising price of raw materials in the upstream, insufficient follow-up in the downstream and weak market. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will be adjusted weakly in the future.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market price of ammonium sulfate dropped this month. The average price of domestic ammonium sulfate at the beginning of this month was 660 yuan/ton, and the average price of ammonium sulfate at the end of this month was 630 yuan/ton, down by 4.55%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At present, the mainstream of ammonium sulphate in Shandong is quoted 550-680 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulphate in Northeast is quoted 650 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulphate in Henan is quoted 600-700 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulphate in Hebei is quoted 600-660 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of ammonium sulphate in Shanxi is quoted 550-650 yuan/ton. The price of ammonium sulfate in East China is about 670 yuan per ton. This month, domestic coking grade ammonium sulfate has been steadily downward, with weak demand support. The internal level operates steadily.

Industry chain: In August 2019, the price of sulphuric acid Market in Shandong fell sharply. The quotation fell from 225.00 yuan/ton on August 1 to 215.00 yuan/ton on August 31, falling by 10 yuan/ton, or 4.44%. Overall, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong fell in August, 53.01% year-on-year, and the sulfuric acid commodity index was 35.80 on August 31. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprise market is not warm and the goods are not ideal. In August, the overall fertilizer preparation situation was not good, and the market continued to be depressed.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were 37 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%). There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ammonium sulfate analysts of business associations believe that the overall situation of domestic ammonium sulfate Market is not good, the market is weak, the autumn fertilizer market is cold, and the downstream demand is insufficient. It is expected that ammonium sulfate Market will continue to weaken in the later period.

The re-production of ethylene glycol plant and the warming of import profits make it possible to adjust the existing prices in a certain direction. The prudent purchasing in downstream polyester industry makes it difficult to strengthen spot prices. Overall, ethylene glycol will show a weak trend of operation in the near future.

Ethylene glycol supply or recovery

From the plant point of view, compared with the first half of the year, the overall load of domestic ethylene glycol plant has returned to a reasonable range, and the current overall load of the plant is around 65%. Among them, the coal-based ethylene glycol plant returned to about 60% in the second quarter, and there was no obvious adjustment; the oil-based ethylene glycol plant did not reproduce the sharp upward trend in the same period in 2018, but remained stable at about 70%. After the recent overhaul of the device, some devices will be restarted in September, which will have a certain impact on the overall supply of the market.

On the import level, the import volume of ethylene glycol in July was 810,000 tons, up 14.09% year on year; from January to July this year, the cumulative import volume of ethylene glycol was 5.8 million tons, down 0.25% year on year. Considering the frequent typhoons in South China in recent years, the import of ethylene glycol will be affected to a certain extent, and the shipping efficiency will be reduced. At present, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is 813,800 tons, which is at the normal level in the same period in previous years from the absolute quantity point of view. Inventory driving is not obvious, but from the point of view of import price difference, with the rise of the price of ethylene glycol, the import price gap continues to warm up. Later, if the influence of typhoon factors weakens, upward pressure on the price of ethylene glycol will gather rapidly, and the price recovery of ethylene glycol will end.

It is difficult for downstream demand to improve fundamentally

With the expected improvement in the supply of ethylene glycol, the downstream polyester and terminal apparel textiles have not improved. Although the stock of terminal grey fabric has declined to some extent, the stock scale is still on the high side of the same period in previous years. From the feedback of the downstream survey, the production orders of foreign trade apparel enterprises are still relatively limited, the available storage capacity of many material warehouses is very low, and the accumulation of raw materials is serious. In the context of Sino-US trade frictions, many manufacturers’expectations for the future are declining. The persistence of terminal recession also makes polyester enterprises very cautious about raw material purchasing and equipment load adjustment.

After a capacity expansion cycle in 2018, the current capacity of polyester is 56 million tons. In the first half of 2019, the capacity of polyester plant increased by 1.23 million tons per year. In the second half of the year, the production capacity of polyester plant is expected to increase by 3.45 million tons per year, and the actual production capacity is about 2.95 million tons per year. Among them, 1.25 million tons per year were put into operation in the third quarter and 1.7 million tons per year in the fourth quarter. In the first half of 2019, the output of polyester increased rapidly, with the total output of 24 million tons from January to June, an increase of 8.4% over the same period last year. The overall cash flow of polyester has been greatly reduced, and the profit differentiation of products is not obvious. With the decline of the policy effect of the “ban on abolition”, the profit of bottle flakes declined sharply, and the profit of filament decreased slightly compared with last year. It is expected that the polyester load will continue to adjust and the growth rate of ethylene glycol demand will continue to decline in the following time.

Summary and Reflection

On the cost side, crude oil prices are easy to fall and difficult to rise, which makes the support below the price of ethylene glycol not strong. In addition, the re-production of ethylene glycol plant and the recovery of import profits make the existing prices have a certain adjustment space. At present, ethylene glycol inventory is at a neutral level, and prudent purchasing in downstream polyester industry makes it difficult to strengthen spot prices. Overall, ethylene glycol will show a weak trend of operation in the near future.

Price Trend

In August 2019, the ethanol market was relatively stable. The monitoring by business associations showed that the price of ethanol at the end of the month was 5380 yuan/ton, which was 3.26% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: In July, the domestic ethanol market performance was relatively stable. Enterprises in Northeast China were actively releasing goods. Market transaction prices were basically near the cost line. At the beginning of the month, centralized purchasing was carried out in the lower reaches. It was felt that after centralized purchasing in the lower reaches, the market price should be raised. However, the market performance was not as expected, and the market did not rise against expectation. The decline is mainly due to the fact that the inventory of enterprises has not reached a low level. Some enterprises’shipment mentality has actively led to the bursting of low-price goods in the market, the poor delivery of high-end goods, the continuing decline of low-end market prices. In mid-July, Northeast China entered the overhaul season, and large factories entered the overhaul successively. Driven by the good overhaul, the market has not risen. After the end of this month, some enterprises started their installations, which were supported by a small increase in the market due to the large number of contracts and orders from individual enterprises and the low inventory. As for raw materials, the price of maize has been weakly adjusted, due to the poor delivery of ethanol plant shutdown and downstream feed industry, the last auction time for maize storage is expected in early August.

Industry chain: raw materials, corn: this month, the domestic northeastern corn alcohol enterprises profit margin is still acceptable, first corn prices have a narrow fluctuation downward, followed by DDGS prices higher, to fill the profit margin. According to the profitability of corn alcohol in Heilongjiang, the current purchase price of corn is around 1600-1730 yuan/ton, and the current price of DDGS is 1730-1900 yuan/ton. Looking at alcohol, the price mainstream is around 4650-4750 yuan per ton, and theoretical profit of 310 yuan per ton of alcohol.

Ethyl acetate: The domestic market of ethyl acetate has risen sharply this month, with the increase of 550 yuan/ton in East China and 850 yuan/ton in South China. At the beginning of the month, we encountered the downstream phased replenishment, as well as the partial cargo digestion in the North China market, and the low inventory of the mainstream enterprises, which led to the continuous increase in the turnover of the offer. Subsequently, raw material acetic acid rose sharply, and on the basis of low social inventory of ethyl acetate, suppliers pushed up the offer, following the rising trend of raw materials. After mid-month, part of the export shipments were delivered one after another, and the overall social stock of the market remained low. Under the situation that downstream ethyl acetate remained bullish for the latter period, purchasing and reserving goods was positive, and the market parties had obvious advantages.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were 37 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%). There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Looking at the market next month, “Gold September Silver October” chemical peak season is coming, but combined with the market at the end of August, it is difficult to make a significant improvement before mid-September. At present, the domestic alcohol supply is large, the Mid-Autumn reserve of downstream liquor has not promoted the market to rise, but in chemical industry, only ethyl ester has started well, and other chemical downstream maintained just need to purchase the amount. According to the rules of the industry, the Mid-Autumn Festival stock-up cycle has ended. September will be faced with the “Eleventh” holiday stock-up, coupled with the production of downstream chemical industry, or a certain degree of favorable alcohol market. However, considering the new grain market in September, the trend of cost will directly guide the market, which needs to be followed up.

Houston, Aug. 27, reported that U.S. polypropylene (PP) exporters are facing some logistical delays as packaging facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast are close to full capacity.

Domestically sold materials are mainly transported by bulk trains, while serving export buyers in Mexico and Canada.

For exports outside North America, materials must be shipped to the U.S. Gulf Coast for packaging. Export goods are usually sold on container ships in 25 kg bags.

Packaging facilities along the Gulf of Mexico are experiencing delays as they try to keep up with the large volume of new polyethylene exported from the Gulf Coast.

Therefore, packaging facilities and warehouses have limited capacity to handle polypropylene exports, as polyethylene exporters and packers have much larger business volumes.

The U.S. polypropylene market is abundant, and there is a tendency to increase output in export channels to reduce domestic supply length.

Exports are piling up on bulk trucks in chemical plants, but there is insufficient supply of bagged materials for immediate shipment, so there is a delay of two to three weeks before the bags are officially sold.

As the current quotation level is considered too high to take advantage of international arbitrage opportunities, the export price of polypropylene is facing some downward pressure.

Propylene contracts in August were extended for delivery, which may limit the upward trend of polypropylene prices.

American polypropylene goods are usually priced on the basis of unit premium.

ICIS assessed that the U.S. Gulf FOB for polypropylene bagged exports was 46-49 cents per pound ($1014-1080 per ton) in the week ending August 23.

Polypropylene is mainly used for packaging, rope, carpet, plastic parts, loudspeakers and automobile parts.

Major polypropylene producers in the United States include Brazil National Chemical Corporation, ExxonMobil, Formosa, Inlis, Leandebaser, Philips 66 and Dodall Petrochemical.

Price data

According to the data from the business associations’list, the average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refineries in August was 1 297.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 1 228.80 yuan/ton at the end of the month, falling by 68.70 yuan/ton in the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of -5.29%. In August, the market price of petroleum coke continued its downward trend.

The Petroleum Coke Commodity Index on August 31 was 95.57, unchanged from yesterday, down 38.58% from the cyclical peak of 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and up 42.88% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-30 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Petroleum coke delivery in August was good as a whole. Price was lowered in the early period and inventory was low at the end of the month. The coking unit of Dongming Petrochemical Company started normal operation. Petroleum coke prices fell by 30-80 yuan/ton this month.

Industry Chain: Upstream: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was 58.58 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month, 56.71 dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of – 3.19%; Brent crude oil was 65.17 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month, 61.08 dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of – 6.28%. In August, Sino-US trade relations fluctuated, global risky assets plunged, OPEC and other firm attitudes towards production reduction, as well as U.S. crude oil production and stock boost and other factors affected the trend of international crude oil prices. Downstream: The market of calcined coke and prebaked anode turns into profit. Affected by Typhoon Lichma in mid-August, the market predicts that the production capacity of electrolytic aluminium in Shandong will decrease (Weiqiao 105,000 tons of production capacity of electrolytic aluminium will be forced to voluntarily stop production), superimposed Xinjiang letter accident, market information surface factors are obvious, and the price of electrolytic aluminium will rise substantially. According to the data of business associations, the average market price of aluminium (99.70) as of August 31 was 14290.00 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were five kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were MTBE (8.16%), gasoline (2.24%) and methanol (1.22%). There are 11 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dimethyl ether (-9.03%), liquefied natural gas (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-6.28%). This month’s average rise and fall was -1.52%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Petroleum coke analysts of business associations predict that in August, petroleum coke market will continue its downward trend, downstream carbon enterprises and calcined coke will turn a profit and electrolytic aluminium price will rise sharply, but due to the decline in aluminium plant start-up rate, petroleum coke market will be depressed; low petroleum coke stocks at the end of the month and concerns about environmental protection and transportation restrictions in September are expected to be refined. Petroleum coke may go up and down in September, with prices ranging from 1150 to 1350 yuan/ton.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, PTA spot market prices in China rose slightly today (September 3). The average market price was 5193 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day and down 44.46% from the previous year. Main futures rebounded, closing at 516 yuan/ton in 2001, up 24 yuan/ton, or 0.47% from the previous trading day.

Hengli Petrochemical, the mainstream PTA plant, is scheduled to overhaul the No. 1 2.2 million ton PTA production line in mid-September with a maintenance time of about 15 days. As soon as the news came out, the market was boosted and the current start-up load was maintained at 94%. However, due to the planned overhaul of the market rebound support is relatively limited, the trading atmosphere declined, mainly traders to buy, sporadic polyester factories follow up. Asia PX (CFR China) closed at $778 per ton on September 2, down $10 per ton from the previous trading day. Downstream polyester start-up load slightly declined to 89%, the profit of end-weaving elastic enterprises is not optimistic. The comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is near 78%, the purchase and stock sentiment is general. The prices of Main polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are stable, POY is down 100 yuan/ton individually. At present, the price range of POY150D/48F market is 7600-7950 yuan/ton.

Business analyst Xia Ting believes that although there are good incentives for major plant maintenance plans, but the current market is full of mobile goods, and raw materials and demand side is not optimistic, PTA prices are expected to remain mainly vulnerable adjustment in the short term.

Recently, the price of potassium sulphate has begun to show a downward trend. In the second and third quarters, the market of potassium sulphate was driven by multiple favorable factors, and the market was good. However, with the weakening of demand, the price of potassium sulphate began to decline gradually. So how can the future market of potassium sulphate go?

The reason for the price increase of potassium sulfate in the early period is mainly due to the low start of the potassium sulfate industry as a whole, the large increase in export volume and the application of water-soluble fertilizer. At present, the summer demand of water-soluble fertilizer in many areas is gradually ending, and the traditional off-season of entering the water-soluble fertilizer market in some areas in autumn and winter. In addition, the landing of typhoon “Lichma” in the earlier period is also In some areas, floods frequently occur, which will weaken the enthusiasm of downstream planting. As the demand for water-soluble fertilizer decreases, the corresponding 52% water-soluble potassium sulfate lacks strong support. Recently, Mannheim’s pre-execution orders were not well received. Although the factory offer was firm, the transaction price began to loosen with the increase of in-plant inventory.

Despite the recent weakening of demand, the export volume of potassium sulfate this year is considerable, and Mannheim industry inventory has increased, but still in the pre-shipment order, there is no obvious inventory pressure. In the second half of the year, the demand for tobacco fertilizer is also good for potassium sulfate. It is known that although the bidding of Fujian tobacco has gone through the process of flow-scale reflow-scale, it was finally won by Luo Potassium, with a price of 2950 yuan.

From the cost point of view, the trend of potassium chloride in the first half of the year has been downward all the way, the overall trend is down, but the situation of environmental protection upgrade pressure and hydrochloric acid inversion is grim, the overall start-up rate of enterprises is not high, and the downward space of potassium sulfate price is limited.

Generally speaking, the domestic potassium sulfate Market has no obvious advantage and shortfall. Although the price has a downward trend, the range is limited, and it is difficult to fluctuate significantly in the short term. It is suggested that more attention should be paid to the downstream demand situation and the start-up changes of potassium sulfate enterprises in the later period.