Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market has risen sharply. As of September 18, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2184 yuan/ton, which was 1.80% lower than that of the previous year and 32.25% lower than that of the previous year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Influenced by the recent surge in crude oil, methanol futures and the expected production of methanol-to-olefins, the methanol market has a positive delivery atmosphere, smooth shipment of mainland enterprises, and the focus of market negotiation has been continuously raised. Inventory in Northwest China is low and prices are high; trading around Bohai Sea area is optimistic and has risen sharply; Huaihai area has a positive mentality and continues to rise; shipments in central China are smooth and keep up with the increase; futures are high and volatile, and port prices are rising. At present, Shanxi, Mongolia and other upstream enterprises can ship goods temporarily, the enterprise inventory pressure is not large, the mentality performance is strong.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: The domestic formaldehyde market is strong and upward, boosted by the recent cost side, the formaldehyde industry’s offer rises, downstream purchasing is on demand, and the trading atmosphere is still acceptable, but the current raw material port market has fallen, the growth rate of the mainland has also narrowed, the cost side support has been slightly loosened, short-term domestic formaldehyde Market or high-level consolidation.

Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market is running steadily for the time being. At present, the inventory level of most acetic acid factories is not high, and most of them are stable prices. However, the industry has a high rate of start-up, users just need to take delivery of goods, under the pressure of weak spot turnover, the mindset of the industry is negative. In addition, during the National Day holiday, highway transportation is limited, and some factories are actively delivering goods to reduce inventory. The mindset of the operators is weak, and the short-term market is expected to be weak.

Dimethyl ether: Dimethyl ether market prices continue to rise, the market trading atmosphere is good. The market price continued to rise as a whole. Although crude oil fell slightly, its impact on the market continued. Businessmen’s psychology of speculation remained unchanged. Although the trend of gas market was weak, the trend of growth remained firm. The price of methanol in North China rose again by about 200 yuan/ton. With this good support, the market of dimethyl ether expanded further. Domestic price difference is not big, manufacturers reflect that the equipment is in full load status recently, shipment is smooth, inventory pressure is not large. It is expected that short-term domestic dimethyl ether market price increases will be narrowed.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: At present, the market is operating in a positive atmosphere, manufacturers ship smoothly, and the mindset of the operators is strong. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will continue to rise, but in the latter part, they still need to pay attention to the resistance of downstream enterprises to high-end sources, and suggest cautious operation.

On September 18, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 106.14, up 1.75 points from yesterday, down 10.37% from 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and up 37.18% from 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Domestic ammonium nitrate market prices rose on the 16th. Domestic ammonium nitrate plants operated smoothly. Supported by the rising price of upstream raw material nitric acid, ammonium nitrate market prices rose, ammonium nitrate manufacturers shipment market was general, downstream on-demand procurement, combined with environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China was still shut down a lot. Ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up, and the prices on the site have risen slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiations in Shaanxi is 2100-2200 yuan/ton, the mainstream in Shandong is 2000-2100 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei is 1850-2000 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate is at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is small. The amplitude is higher.

Recently, the price of nitric acid in domestic market has risen sharply. The price quoted by mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu province ranged from 1950 to 2000 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 500 yuan/ton. Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1900-2000 yuan per ton, the price rose. Shandong manufacturers quoted 1900-2050 yuan/ton, the price trend rose. The situation of nitric acid shipment has improved, and the rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price of ammonium nitrate has gone up; the domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is rising, and the market turnover is still acceptable. The market price of liquid ammonia is 3210 yuan/ton, which is affected by the lower cost in the upstream, together with the inventory pressure of most manufacturers. Compared with the previous period, some units have been restarted and local ammonia supply has increased in the region. Especially in Shanxi and North China, most manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia. The price quoted by manufacturers in North China is maintained in the range of 3000-3400 yuan/ton and 2500-2800 yuan/ton in Northwest China. The rising price of liquid ammonia is related to the downstream ammonium nitrate Market belt. To some extent, the market price of ammonium nitrate has gone up. In recent years, the market of the downstream civil explosion industry has not changed much. The market demand for ammonium nitrate is limited, and ammonium nitrate manufacturers have high stocks. However, the price of raw materials market has risen, and the market of ammonium nitrate has generally risen by a limited margin due to the market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material nitric acid market prices have risen sharply, downstream demand is still at a low level, expected to be affected by raw material support in the latter part of the ammonium nitrate market prices or will rise slightly.

I. Rising and falling lists

According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 36 weeks of 2019 (9.9-9.13), there were 8 kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices. The top three commodities were PS (4.55%), PA6 (2.90%) and EPS (2.23%). There are five kinds of products that have declined annually. The first three products are PA66 (-1.05%), PET (-0.70%) and styrene-butadiene rubber (-0.47%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.64%. Among them, the natural rubber ring decreased by 0.34% compared with the previous year, and increased by 2.70%.

II. Commodity Index

The natural rubber commodity index on September 15 was 39.19, down 1.78 points from yesterday, down 60.81% from the 100.00 point in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 39.22% from the 28.15 point on November 25, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

3. Market Trend

In the first half of 2019, the market of natural rubber was ups and downs, while in the second half, it was still quite distressing. The first quarter experienced a sharp increase of nearly 10% in February, and fell back to the starting line in March. The second quarter rebounded 4% in April and then started the decline mode until the last trading day when the Customs announced the policy of “mixing rubber classification” began to rise. In May, the price of rubber continued to rise. The impact of classification and inspection of mixed rubber, high temperature and drought and insect pests was tremendous. Especially, the shortage of new rubber supply caused worries about future supply. The price of Tianguo had risen by 10%, followed by a drop in sentiment and a three-point decline in the price shock of rubber. June continued to be a weak shock, a monthly decline of 5.7%, known as “business is very difficult to do”. In the first half of July, Tianjiao shocks dropped until the 16th RU1909 contract closed at 10460 points, down 150 points on the same day, the lowest point of the month, with a decline of 8.15% on the 1st to 16th days. After that, Tianjiao shocks rebounded in the second half of the month and then decreased slightly, with the main contract closing at 10670 points on the last trading day of the month. On August 12th, Tianjiao 20 rubber was listed on the market in the last period of energy. Full latex futures continued to be weak. The highest price was 10,624 yuan/ton on the 31st day, the lowest was 10,260 yuan/ton on the 2nd day, and the maximum monthly amplitude was 3.55%. From the morphological point of view, the first half of August showed an incomplete trend of “W” and the second half showed a trend of “V”, which was generally small in the current month. Amplitude shocks, weak market. Enter September, the first week of the market all the way up, Shanghai glue (whole milk) weekend slightly callback, the second week of the market shock downward; 20 glue in the first week of the highest price 10450, the largest increase of 3.91%, near the weekend callback, the second week of vulnerable shock, the highest weekly price 10315, the lowest 10115, the closing week 10175; According to business club (100ppi.com) monitoring Data show that in 17 years, the mainstream quotation of SCRWF in East China was 10 624 yuan/ton on the 1st day and 1 1040 yuan/ton on the 15th day, with an increase of 3.92% in the first half of the month.

IV. Influencing factors

(1) Analysis of industrial factors

Rubber production: In September, the main production area of natural rubber is still a high-yield period, and the output growth is obvious. Rainfall weather in the main production area in China affects rubber cutting to a certain extent. Statistics show that in general, rubber production in Banna will be reduced by 15%-20% in 2019. Many private factories are short of raw materials to purchase. The low price of raw materials also hampers the enthusiasm of rubber farmers to cut rubber. In some cases, the phenomenon of less cutting and discarding cutting is observed.

Import and Export: China: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China imported 538,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August 2019, down 2.71% annually and 11.8% year-on-year. From January to August, the total import volume was 4.166 million tons, down 7.7% from 4.514 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of the amount, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber in August amounted to 837 million US dollars, down 13.2% from the same period last year.

Inventory: Domestic Tianguo stock is still at a high level. As of September 13, 2019, natural rubber stock in the previous period was 471956 (5127) tons and warehouse receipt was 427400 (5210) tons.

Demand: Statistical data show that the cumulative sales of heavy trucks in China from January to July totaled 732,300 vehicles, down 2% from the same period last year. It is expected that the cumulative sales of heavy trucks in the second half of the year will still fall by 5% to 10%. Passenger car sales in August were 1.65 million, down 7.7% from a year earlier, while automobile sales were 1.96 million, down 6.9% from a year earlier. In July, China exported 46.51 million new pneumatic rubber tires, an increase of 6.8% over the same period last year, and the export amount reached 9.589 billion yuan, an increase of 5% over the same period last year. In terms of export situation, from January to July, China’s tire export volume was 295 million, an increase of 5.6% over the same period last year, and the export amount was 59.923 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7% over the same period last year. The Sino-US trade war is still grim, and China’s tire exports are still affected.

Downstream: China’s tire production continued to decline in the first half of 2019. The total tire output in January-June was 403.745 million, down 1% from the same period last year. In September, the start-up of tire enterprises in China is still affected, and will improve after the 11th National Day. As of September 13, 2019, the total tire start-up load of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 71.81%, which was 0.15 percentage points higher than the previous period and 1.76 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Semi-steel tire start-up load of domestic tire enterprises was 67.11%, which was 0.20 percentage points higher than the previous period and 3.85 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Start-up high for holidays to reduce the rate of start-up. Tire factories have normal inventory and distributors have high inventory.

(2) Analysis of macro-factors

1. Relaxation of automobile consumption: In mid-August, the State Council issued “Opinions on Speeding up the Development of Circulation and Promoting Commercial Consumption”, proposing 20 policy measures such as gradually relaxing or abolishing automobile purchase restrictions and supporting green intelligent commodities to replace old ones with new ones; in June, the State Development and Reform Commission and other three departments issued documents to prohibit the introduction of new automobiles everywhere. Vehicle purchase restrictions. Experts believe that the trend of “relaxation” can be seen from the document, together with the issue of “20 consumption items”, to promote China’s automobile consumption has become an overall tone, and the prospects for automobile production and marketing are optimistic.

2. Renminbi depreciation leads to cost increase: At present, the formula for calculating the import cost of natural latex is as follows: (US dollar shipping price * exchange rate + tariff)* (1 + 13%) + customs declaration and other miscellaneous charges, value-added tax 13%. Renminbi depreciation increases the import cost, the exchange rate depreciates from 6.9 to 7.2, and the import cost is about 400 yuan/ton. The superimposed cost of natural quotation increased and the price increased.

3. Statistical data declined: PMI of manufacturing industry declined in August, production, orders, inventory and price index were weak, and there was downward pressure on economic operation. The renewed escalation of Sino-US trade frictions has impacted the development expectations of manufacturing industry. At the same time, the high temperature and rainy weather have a certain impact on the prosperity of manufacturing industry, the most important of which is the insufficient domestic demand. Facing the pressure of weakening demand, the analysis holds that on the one hand, we should expand effective domestic demand and further strengthen the stability of infrastructure construction; on the other hand, we should promote tax reduction and fee reduction, focus on reducing the operating costs of manufacturing enterprises, promote the expected improvement of production and investment of enterprises, and boost the confidence of manufacturing industry.

4. The central bank lowered its benchmark to promote liquidity: On the afternoon of September 6, the central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve ratio of financial institutions on September 16. The release of funds could reach about 900 billion yuan. The commodity sector, especially commodities dominated by industrial attributes, may be vulnerable to such measures as benchmarking.

V. Related Products

Business association data showed that the commodity index of cis-butadiene rubber on September 15 was 34.02, which was unchanged from yesterday, down 66.78% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2011-09-25), up 43.30% from the low of 23.74 points on February 04, 2015, and 34.36 on September 15, which was unchanged from yesterday and 103.60 points from the peak of the cycle. (2011-09-08) decreased by 66.83%, up 20.94% from the lowest point of 28.41 on January 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

VI. Future Market Forecast

According to the natural rubber analyst of the business association, September is the traditional consumption peak season. Under the combined effect of macroeconomic, industry development, downstream demand, import and export and other factors, natural rubber once continuously increased for four days. Under the condition of high inventory, the price does not have the conditions to continue to rise. Normal callback. The analysis shows that the price will continue to oscillate due to the recent comprehensive factors. Construction may be affected before the Eleventh holiday. However, considering the seasonal consumption characteristics in autumn and the rising downstream starting rate after the holiday, the peak consumption season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” deserves our attention.

China’s import volume and dependence on imports have steadily declined in recent years

Application and Industry Chain of A Styrene

Styrene is an important liquid chemical raw material. It belongs to monocyclic aromatic hydrocarbons with olefin side chain and conjugated with benzene ring. It is the simplest and most important member of unsaturated aromatic hydrocarbons. Styrene is widely used as raw material for synthetic resins and rubber. Styrene is an important basic organic raw material for petrochemical industry. The direct upstream of styrene is styrene and ethylene, and the downstream is relatively dispersed. The main products involved are foamed polystyrene, polystyrene, ABS resin, rubber, unsaturated polyester resin and styrene copolymers. The terminals are mainly used in plastics and synthetic rubber products.

Overview of Pure Benzene Market for B Raw Material

global market

The direct upstream of styrene is pure styrene and ethylene, in which pure styrene accounts for about 60% of the cost of styrene (styrene cost formula is 0.79 * pure styrene + 0.29 * ethylene + a certain cost). The downstream of pure benzene mainly includes styrene, caprolactam, aniline and phenol ketone, among which the largest downstream is styrene. Global pure benzene production and consumption remained stable from 2011 to 2017. In 2014, global pure benzene consumption slowed down compared with production growth, resulting in a small surplus of pure benzene supply; in 2015, with the rebound of pure benzene demand, pure benzene production began to rise to the bottom; in 2016-2017, global pure benzene supply and demand steadily rebounded. By the end of 2017, global pure benzene production reached 86.54 million tons and consumption reached 85.94 million tons.

Global pure benzene production is mainly concentrated in East Asia, North America and other Asia-Pacific regions, which account for 78.7% of global total benzene production. In addition, the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 62.4% of the global total production of pure benzene. From the perspective of global pure benzene trade flows, East Asia and other Asia-Pacific regions are the main exporters, while China and North America are the main importers. Among them, China’s pure benzene imports show an increasing trend year by year, while North America’s imports declined significantly in 2017.

Chinese Market

In 2013, China’s pure benzene industry witnessed a wave of production expansion peak, with production capacity approaching 10 million tons. The next peak is expected to occur in 2019-2021. From the point of view of pure benzene demand, domestic pure benzene consumption has maintained a stable and high-speed growth trend, the largest downstream is styrene, followed by caprolactam, and it will still be the driving force of downstream demand growth in the future. Due to strong demand, the dependence on pure benzene imports has increased year by year, from about 3% in 2011 to 21% in 2018. The main source countries of imports are Korea, Japan and Thailand. In 2017, the dependence on pure benzene imports has reached 85%. By the end of 2018, China had 12.76 million tons of pure benzene production, 89.78 million tons of production, 25.77 million tons of imports and 12.1 million tons of apparent consumption.

C Global Supply and Demand Structure of Styrene

supply

In 2010, the global production capacity of styrene expanded substantially, with an annual capacity increase of about 2.78 million tons and a capacity growth rate of nearly 10%. The main reason is that the consumption of downstream products of styrene (most of which are used in household appliances, automobiles and building materials) in the world, especially in China, increased by more than 15% in 2009 and 2010. 。 After 2010, the growth rate of global styrene production slowed down gradually. By the end of 2017, the global styrene production capacity reached 33.724 million tons.

The global production capacity of styrene is mainly concentrated in East Asia, North America and Western Europe, which account for 78.9% of the global production capacity of styrene. In addition, the Asia-Pacific region accounts for 52% of the world’s total production capacity of styrene.

From the perspective of global output distribution, with the breakthrough of domestic production technology, the main production areas of styrene in the world are mainly transferred from Europe and America to Asia, especially China, which accounts for a rapid increase in the proportion of global styrene production. In addition, the global styrene industry is relatively concentrated. In 2017, the world’s top 10 production enterprises accounted for about 35% of the global total production capacity, and the top 17 production enterprises accounted for about half of the global production capacity.

demand

The downstream demand for styrene is relatively dispersed, and the end products are mainly plastic products and rubber rubber. According to the global downstream demand for styrene in 2016, 37.8% of styrene is used in polystyrene, 22.1% in foamed polystyrene, 15.9% in ABS resin, 9.9% in styrene-butadiene rubber, 4.8% in unsaturated resin and so on.

The main downstream of styrene is styrene polymer polystyrene. Polystyrene has the advantages of transparency, low cost, rigidity, insulation and good printability. It can be impregnated with low boiling point hydrocarbon foaming agent to form hair-able beads. Polystyrene foam has the properties of heat insulation, sound insulation, low temperature resistance, light weight, elasticity and so on. It has the advantages of low water absorption. According to the physical and chemical properties of polystyrene, it can be divided into non-expandable polystyrene and expandable polystyrene. Non-expansible polystyrene mainly includes general-purpose polystyrene and high impact polystyrene. The former is mainly used in electronic and electrical appliances, daily necessities industry, and the latter is mainly used in building materials and packaging materials.

ABS is the second largest styrene derivative. ABS is a copolymer of acrylonitrile (A), butadiene (B) and styrene (S). It has the advantages of impact strength, good oil resistance, water resistance, chemical stability and good cold resistance. It is mainly used in the production of injection moulding products, sheets and films. The end users are mainly automobiles, electronics and households. Electrical appliances, construction pipe industry.

Styrene-butadiene rubber is mainly made of styrene and butadiene. Styrene-butadiene rubber is widely used in tires, belts, rubber shoes and many other rubber products. Styrene-butadiene latex is used in textiles and papermaking. Unsaturated polyester resin is also a major consumer area of styrene, mainly used in the production of FRP products, coatings and building materials.

Driven by China’s dramatic increase in styrene consumption, the global growth rate of styrene consumption is around 11%. After 2010, the growth rate of styrene consumption in China and the world has fallen to a high level. In 2017, the global consumption of styrene was mainly concentrated in East Asia, Western Europe and North America, which accounted for 82.8% of the global consumption of styrene and more than half of the consumption in Asia-Pacific region.

Combining with the global distribution of styrene production capacity and demand, we can see the global trade flow of styrene, the excess production capacity of styrene in the Middle East, East Asia and North America, which are the net export areas of styrene, while China has the largest styrene gap, of which China’s net import of styrene in 2017 is about 3.42 million tons.

D Situation of Styrene Import and Export in China

Supply and demand situation

Before 2011, the production capacity of styrene in China was put into operation centrally, especially in 2009, which increased by 15.95 million tons, an increase of 50% compared with 2008. After 2011, with the downstream growth slowing down, the growth rate of styrene production slowed down. By 2014, the growth rate of styrene production was only 0.7%. From 2015 to 2018, the overall growth rate of styrene production was stable. With the rapid development of the styrene industry, import decreases and import dependence decreases year by year, from about 51% in 2010 to about 26% in 2018. By the end of 2018, there were 44 domestic styrene manufacturers, 52 production lines, 9.217 million tons of styrene production capacity, 8.116 million tons of output, 2.914 million tons of imports and 11.125 million tons of apparent consumption in China. 10 thousand tons. However, from 2019 to 2020, with the steady advancement of domestic private refining and chemical integration units, supporting downstream styrene units will be put into operation one after another, and a new round of centralized production of domestic styrene units, the domestic styrene supply and demand pattern may change from insufficient capacity to gradually surplus.

New capacity

With the centralized production of large private refineries in China, a large number of new production capacity of styrene will be put into operation in the future. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China has orderly promoted domestic private refining and chemical integration projects. At present, tens of millions of integrated refining and chemical projects such as Hengli, Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, Shenghong Petrochemical Company and Xuyang Petrochemical Company have been approved to enter the peak period of construction, and most of the large refining and chemical enterprises are equipped with downstream styrene units. In addition to private refineries, the high profits of styrene in the past two years have also attracted some enterprises to increase the input of styrene production capacity. Roughly estimated that the planned additional capacity of styrene in 2019-2020 will exceed 8 million tons, and the concentrated period of styrene production will come in the next two years.

Import and export situation

With the increase of new domestic production capacity, the import volume and import dependence of styrene in China have steadily declined in recent years. According to customs data, the main importing countries of styrene in China in 2018 are Saudi Arabia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, etc. Before 2017, the main source countries of styrene import are Korea, Saudi Arabia and the United States, of which South Korea is the largest source. On June 23, 2018, the Ministry of Commerce of China imposed an anti-dumping duty of 3.8%-55.7% on imports of styrene originating in Korea and the United States for a period of five years, which led to a significant decline in the proportion of Chinese imports from Korea in the second half of 2018, with Saudi Arabia and Japan becoming the main source countries of imports.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the average price of maleic anhydride offer was 7133.33 yuan/ton (including tax) by the end of the weekend, up 0.94% from 7066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

The maleic anhydride commodity index on September 13 was 67.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.66% from the cyclical peak of 123.67 points (2017-12-26), and up 19.64% from the lowest point of 56.17 on February 16, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: Maleic anhydride market rose slightly this week. This week, the main domestic maleic anhydride factories are operating normally, without stock pressure, domestic maleic anhydride limited sales, tight spot supply, strong bullish mood.

Industry chain: The overall market of unsaturated resin downstream is stable, but the terminal demand is general. According to business association monitoring, in September domestic pure benzene spot is tight, stimulating the market, Sinopec raised the listing price to 5750 yuan/ton for the second time. Recently, the price of pure benzene has risen sharply, the downstream of high-price pure benzene has strong resistance, and the market is cautious. The domestic hydrobenzene market is running steadily, and the current price is 5200 yuan/ton. The price of n-butane remained stable and the market was well supplied.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 36 weeks of 2019 (9.9-9.13), there were 30 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 5 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were butanone (12.76%), crude benzene (11.31%) and nitric acid (7.29%). There are 20 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 3.6% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are sulphur (-9.60%), R22 (-7.14%) and R134a (-6.79%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.43%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of Maleic Anhydride Products of Business Society Chemical Branch believe that at present, maleic anhydride manufacturers have no inventory pressure, pure benzene prices have risen sharply, downstream resins have rebounded, and the maleic anhydride market may rise in the short term.

According to the business community monitoring: after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the hydrogen peroxide market has fallen cliff-like, as of September 16, the domestic average price of 1140 yuan/ton, a one-day decline of 7.57%. Since September 9, hydrogen peroxide has fallen by more than 11%.

September is the peak season for traditional consumption of hydrogen peroxide. However, in September this year, hydrogen peroxide prices did not rise but fell. Prices of hydrogen peroxide rose sharply in August. Limited transportation of dangerous goods during the Mid-Autumn Festival, combined with flat terminal demand, prices have fallen sharply all the way, falling by more than 4%.

After the Mid-Autumn Festival, near the National Day, the downstream receipt is not active, there are many manufacturers preparing for overhaul, the terminal demand is general, coupled with many unclear policies before the National Day, the downstream wait-and-see attitude is strong, procurement is not active. At present, there is no wish to stock up before the National Day, the Mid-Autumn Festival high-speed restrictions, some water sales are not smooth, inventory squeeze is too much, continued to fall sharply.

Hebei mainstream quoted 1100 yuan/ton, the price fell 100 yuan/ton; Shandong mainstream quoted 1080-1240 yuan/ton; the price fell 100 yuan/ton; Anhui 1400 yuan/ton, the price is relatively stable.

Business Club hydrogen peroxide analysts believe: near 11, negative pressure, hydrogen peroxide market rise weak, or will continue to be weak downward.

According to Reuters reports from Beijing and Singapore, China Customs Administration (GAC) data show that China’s crude oil imports increased by about 3% in August compared with last month, due to a rebound in refining profits despite persistent excess of petroleum products and tepid demand.

GAC data show that crude oil shipments were 42.17 million tons in August, 41.4 million tons in July and 38.38 million tons in August last year, an increase of 9.9% over the same period last year.

This is equivalent to 9.93 million barrels a day, up from 9.66 million barrels a day in July and the highest level since April.

GAC data show that in the first eight months of 2019, China’s crude oil imports reached 327.8 million tons, or 9.85 million barrels per day, an increase of 9.6% over the same period last year.

In the first half of this year, the profit margin of refineries has recovered to 200 to 300 yuan per ton, but the whole industry is still under pressure due to the supply of petroleum products from Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical, the large-scale refineries.

“Private refineries in Shandong are also facing difficulties in obtaining bank credit, and they may not be able to use up their annual oil import quotas,” said Amanda Zhao of JLC Network Technology, a Chinese commodity consultancy, before releasing the data.

GAC data show that China exported 4.08 million tons of petroleum products in August, down from 5.49 million tons in July.

From January to August this year, China exported 42.08 million tons of petroleum products, up from 40.22 million tons in the same period in 2018.

Data also show that China’s total natural gas imports, including LNG and pipeline imports, reached 8.34 million tons in August, up 7.3% from the same period last year, the highest since January and 7.89 million tons in July.

I. Trend analysis

According to the data of business associations, this week (9.9-9.12) the domestic price of cis-butadiene rubber was basically stable. The price was maintained at 11325 yuan/ton, up or down by 0%.

II. Market Analysis

Petrochemical ex-factory price stability: this week (9.9-9.12) domestic cis-butadiene rubber petrochemical factory ex-factory price stability, as of September 12, CNPC Northeast Sales Company cis-butadiene rubber price stability, the current Daqing Shuntine ex-warehouse pricing 11,100 yuan/ton, Jinzhou Shuntine 11,100 yuan/ton; CNPC Northwest Sales Company CIS of cis-butadiene rubber price stability: Dushan Zishun Dingku raised its price at 11 150 yuan/ton, of which 50 yuan/ton is storage fee; Sinopec North China Sales Company increased its price of cis-butadiene rubber at 11,100 yuan/ton in Qilu and 11,120 yuan/ton in Yanshan and 11,120 yuan/ton in North China.

Rubber imports declined in August: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China imported 538,000 tons of natural rubber and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August, a 2.71% decrease in the ring-to-ring ratio and an 11.8% decrease in the year-to-year ratio. Imports from January to August were 4.166 million tons, down 7.7% from 4.514 million tons in the same period last year.

Raw material prices remained high: raw material butadiene prices rose slightly this week to maintain a high price, the cost of cis-butadiene rubber support. Butadiene rose slightly by 0.31% at the beginning of the week and 10390 yuan per ton at the end of the week, according to the business association.

Reduction of cis-butadiene supply: This week, the supply of cis-butadiene rubber continued to decrease, and the cis-butadiene rubber installations such as Lande, Dushanzi, Qixiang and Chuanhua in Xinjiang stopped. As a whole, the inventory of cis-butadiene rubber manufacturer continues to decrease, which is beneficial to the price of cis-butadiene rubber.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that although the price of butadiene, the upstream raw material, is high, international crude oil is facing adjustment, which has a negative effect in terms of cost. Later look at the cis-butadiene rubber market or adjustment risk.

Ethylene glycol prices have been oscillating since early August. The main futures prices have risen from the initial low of 4275 to around 4700, with a rebound of nearly 10%. Spot prices have broken through the front line of 4800, showing a stage-by-stage strong trend. However, the short-term strong deduction is more difficult for the medium and long-term strong. Pressure has begun to appear around 4800, and the momentum for sustained upward movement is temporarily insufficient.

De-inventory Supports Short-term Price Recovery

On the one hand, downstream demand is good, and the peak season trend of “gold, nine silver and ten ten silver” gradually appears, and the consumption of raw materials has increased. As far as the weaving process is concerned, the low start-up in the second quarter slowed down the demand for raw materials. After August, the weaving load improved significantly. The loom start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the main producing area, rose to about 76% in early September. At the same time, the stock days of grey fabrics in weaving enterprises also showed a downward trend. The production and marketing of textile city and polyester products also warmed up in August. Taking filament as an example, the average production and marketing rate of filament in August was around 90%, and in early September it rose to about 114%. The average daily sales of Textile City long-fibre fabrics are over 9 million meters, which is higher than the average level of 7 million meters per day in August. Within the week, the stock days of sample weaving enterprises in Shengze area were 39.5 days, and the volume of light textile city market was in seasonal recovery.

With the improvement of terminal demand and the digestion of polyester stocks in June-July, the comprehensive stocks of polyester filament and polyester staple fibers are at the lowest level in the year, about 8.1 days. All of these lay a good foundation for increasing the load of polyester. The unit load of polyester links began to rise in August. By early September, it had risen to a high near 92%, higher than the same period in the previous two years. At the same time, with the production of new Fengming and Tongkun plants in August, the production capacity of polyester increased to 56.81 million tons, compared with 51.96 million tons in the same period last year. As a result, the output of polyester increased in August due to the high capacity base and start-up rate, and the demand for raw material ethylene glycol also increased.

On the other hand, the load of ethylene glycol coal production and the decline of imports ease the supply pressure in its stage. From the perspective of domestic supply, the monthly output of domestic ethylene glycol increased at an average rate of about 30% from January to June this year, while the imports in the same period were basically the same as last year, with limited shrinkage and excessive overall supply over demand, which led to the continuous accumulation of ethylene glycol. However, the high inventory of ethylene glycol has depressed its price. Under the constant squeeze of profits in the ethylene glycol industry, the maintenance and parking of domestic ethylene glycol enterprises have become frequent and lasting. Especially in the coal-based ethylene glycol industry, its load began to drop rapidly after reaching a high of 89% in April, and dropped to a low of about 43% in August. During the period, the load of high quality glycol also decreased synchronously, but the range was less than that of coal. The load of methanol production is relatively stable, but the supply of methanol production is limited and has little effect. Affected by this, the overall domestic production of ethylene glycol decreased significantly from July to August. In August, the output data even decreased by 6.9% compared with the same period last year. Domestic output increased from high growth to negative growth.

On the import side, the import of ethylene glycol fell sharply in June, and the import volume fell 14.8% in the same month compared with the same period last year. Although the import volume rose annually in July, it still fell by 2.9% compared with the same period last year. The decline in imports is reflected in the decline in the arrival of ethylene glycol. And the start of downstream peak season demand, led to the increase of ethylene glycol port shipments. As a result, high ethylene glycol inventory gradually entered the depot, and depot accelerated after July. As of early September, ethylene glycol port inventory fell to 877,000 tons, although still higher than the same period last year, but the depot trend is expected to continue before the end of the downstream peak season.

Therefore, in the peak season, the domestic ethylene glycol continued to depot more likely, the price of superimposed crude oil rebounded to the formation of a more multi-tone chemical products, ethylene glycol market continued more trend.

According to today’s oil price report on September 9, since OPEC began restricting oil production, Iraq, the second largest OPEC producer after Saudi Arabia, has exceeded the production cap almost every month for the past two and a half years. But now Iraq says it is ready to cut production.

Thamer Ghadhban, Iraq’s oil minister, said Iraq was now ready to reduce crude oil production next month. In a statement, the official said: “We are committed to reaching a cut-off agreement.” Ghadhban’s statement runs counter to the evidence that Iraq has failed to meet its production reduction obligations since the signing of the first agreement.

For Iraq, the OPEC+agreement coincides with an improvement in the country’s security situation and a steady increase in oil production.

Although Baghdad claims that it needs higher oil production to generate more oil revenue (90% of government revenue) to rebuild a country devastated by decades of war, the second largest oil producer in OPEC has put a different spoke in the cartel wheel of OPEC, which he hopes to find elsewhere. Some member states have abided by the agreement to cut oil production.

Iraq’s failure to fully comply with the agreement is also one of the reasons for tensions within OPEC, and Tehran believes that its competitors within OPEC have stolen its market share.

The latest monthly survey released by S&P Global Plats last week showed that Iraq’s oil production hit a record high in August, with an estimated 4.88 million barrels per day of oil injected into the country.

The Pratz survey showed that Iraq’s daily production in August increased by 100,000 barrels compared with July, exceeding Iraq’s daily production quota of 4.51 million barrels last month, reaching 370,000 barrels.

The Reuters survey also found that Iraq increased production in August. Both Reuters and Pratz surveys estimated that OPEC increased oil production for the first time in August, despite OPEC’s constant calls for “full compliance” and “market stability”. Iraq and Nigeria were among the biggest contributors to OPEC’s August output increase, according to the survey.

OPEC’s official production data for August will be released on September 11, but previous July’s monthly report on the oil market showed that Iraq’s output grew the most, increasing 32,000 barrels a day in July to 4.753 million barrels a day, while Saudi Arabia’s output in July was 134,000 Rand a day by Ano, below OPEC’s quota. More than half a million barrels of oil.

According to Bloomberg’s ship tracking data, OPEC also increased oil exports in August, and Iraqi oil ministry data showed that Iraq’s crude oil exports increased from 3.566 million barrels a day in July to 3.633 million barrels a day last month.

Dave, global head of commodity pricing at S&P Global Platts? Dave Ernsberger told CNBC last week: “The recent increase in Iraqi oil production has turned the problem that had been a headache for OPEC into a complete migraine.”

These increases in Iraq have again attracted the attention of Saudi Arabia, a major OPEC member. Since the OPEC + Alliance began to reduce production in January 2017, OPEC has repeatedly warned members of the violation of the agreement about the violation of the cut.

Not long ago, Iraqi Oil Minister Tamergah Ban said Sunday that Iraq would begin to cut oil production in October and would stick to OPEC’s production reduction plan. He said that in the past few months, Iraqi oil production has exceeded its quota due to increased domestic demand in the summer, refineries will enter a maintenance period in October, and domestic demand will decline.