1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

In the first three quarters, the price of domestic asphalt market fluctuated repeatedly, and the price of asphalt market fluctuated upward, from 3434 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 3640 yuan / ton at the end of September. First of all, in 2019, the international crude oil market surged, the Sino US trade relations were uncertain, the crude oil market “black swan” events occurred frequently, OPEC production reduction twists and turns, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East was pending, many factors affected the oil market, the oil price also showed UPS and downs, twists and turns, the domestic asphalt market is also cyclical, ups and downs. Secondly, in January and February, when the road construction stagnated, there was an increase in the demand for asphalt storage in winter; in April and may, when the road engineering was centralized and launched, there was a sharp drop in the price of crude oil, which restricted the upward trend of asphalt; in July and August, when the crude oil stabilized and the market sentiment began to improve, the demand of asphalt market was affected by rainfall in many places. On the whole, the first three quarters of the asphalt market mixed with many empty news, and the asphalt market fluctuated upward, but basically in line with the upward trend of the market price focus in the peak season.

In the fourth quarter, the domestic asphalt market price showed a unilateral downward trend, from 3640 yuan / ton to 3384 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with a drop of 7.05%. In terms of international crude oil, Saudi Arabia continued to release the signal of production reduction, and superimposed the phased results of Sino US trade negotiations. The future trade environment is expected to be improved, and oil prices continue to rise moderately. However, the overall demand of asphalt market shows a gradual downward trend, and the domestic spot price of asphalt began to turn downward in October, and low-cost goods from Northeast China and Shandong successively poured into East China, further impacting the spot price of East China market. Until the end of November, the overall performance was that traders expected to be pessimistic, mainly in wait-and-see mood, only purchasing on demand, and the pressure gradually emerged. Although the crude oil at the cost end stabilized again in December, the profit of coking material has been better than that of asphalt, and the traders have no intention of replenishing the storage, and the winter storage season is far away. Asphalt bottoming stabilized in December.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business club, believes that the price trend of the asphalt Market in 2019 is generally in line with the trend of the asphalt lean season. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the total planned investment of the national highway is 9.7 trillion, while from January 2016 to October 2019, the total planned investment of the national highway is 7.8 trillion, accounting for 80% of the plan, and 20% of the plan still needs to be completed. The uncertainty of asphalt price in 2020 still comes from the relationship between crude oil price and asphalt supply and demand. In 2019, the international oil price is expected to increase by a limited margin. Therefore, it is predicted that the price focus of asphalt market will be limited in 2020.

On January 1, the rare earth index was 341, which was flat with yesterday, 65.90% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 1000 (2011-12-06), and 25.83% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals increased by 5000 yuan / ton to 367000 yuan / ton, 2125000 yuan / ton and 650000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth oxide decreased by 4000 yuan / ton to 280000 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide was 1750000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide decreased by 5000 yuan / ton to 337500 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide increased by 5000 yuan / ton to 291000 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy decreased by 3000 yuan / ton to 359000 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.72 million yuan / ton.

The price trend of heavy and rare earth in the rare earth market is stable, the domestic supply policy of heavy and rare earth market, and the export of heavy and rare earth has improved. Myanmar unilaterally closed the customs clearance port, the domestic supply has decreased, and the domestic price trend of heavy and rare earth remains high. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has not changed much in the near future, the market trend of PR nd series products is general, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price is slightly lower. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and the data in 2019 It’s the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth market remained high.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced, coupled with favorable domestic support for the export of rare earth industry, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will remain high, while the price of light rare earth will mainly fluctuate.

Commodity index: on December 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.45, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.04% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.81% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 31, 2019, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 15950 yuan / ton, and on December 1, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 15933.33 yuan / ton, slightly increased by 0.1% this month.

Industry chain: upstream: at the beginning of December, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market fluctuated and increased, with the quotation of 10500 yuan / ton on the first day and 12000 yuan / ton on the fourth day; the price has been reduced by 700 yuan / ton since the middle of the year; 500 yuan / ton to 11500 yuan / ton on the ninth day, 150 yuan / ton to 11350 yuan / ton on the 16th day, and 50 yuan / ton to 11300 yuan / ton on the 20th day, near the end of the month and 30 days The price of acrylonitrile in the second half of the year ended with 11200 yuan / ton. From the market trend of the second half of the year, the high price appeared in the late September, and the price began to be reduced in a step-by-step manner in October. In general, the price was reduced by 2000-3000 yuan / ton in six months, with a volatility of about 15%. This month, the market volatility was first up and then down. Downstream: in winter, the construction of water treatment project is relatively small, and the downstream procurement has a great impact. At present, it has entered the coldest three or nine days of the year. The Spring Festival is not far away, and the construction will usher in the most slack season. Manufacturer: Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, received the notice from January 19 to January 1, 2020, all of which were shut down, and the manufacturer had relatively sufficient stock. However, due to the shutdown of vehicles under the fifth five year plan, the freight cost increased, and the market price of polyacrylamide of the manufacturer increased by 50 yuan / ton.

Industry: this round of intermittent production stoppage started in late July has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production one after another. This round of production stoppage cycle returns, and the production is stopped again in four seasons according to the requirements of environmental protection: in late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production stoppage, which requires: according to the environmental pollution status of the whole city and the pollution weather in the future According to the situation analysis, the municipal office requires all deep governance enterprises to stop production and governance before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. 2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the construction volume is getting less and less from the current Spring Festival holiday, and the downstream procurement is about to be greatly reduced. The price reduction of acrylonitrile is conducive to the manufacturer’s control of production costs. The period of production suspension of Gongyi factory in Henan Province expires immediately, and the supply of goods is not in shortage. After new year’s day, the production will continue to increase, and the transportation cost will not be reduced. To sum up, the future market price of polyacrylamide should be stable, not excluding the possibility of weakness, and pay attention to the start-up and inventory of manufacturers after new year’s day.

Commodity index: on December 31, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 101.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.61% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.89% from 100.90, the lowest point on December 19, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 31, 2019, the mainstream market price of polyaluminium chloride (fixed, content ≥ 28%) was about 1833.33 yuan / ton. On December 1, the mainstream market price was 1950 yuan / ton, and the overall price of this month was reduced by 3.42%.

Price situation: the mainstream monitoring manufacturers of the business association, the mainstream quotation of domestic polyaluminium chloride market continued to be lowered in December. In the second half of 2019, after experiencing the high price caused by the shutdown from August to October, the price of polyaluminium chloride continued to decline after returning to 1950 yuan / ton on July 1; in six months, the lowest price was 1833.33 yuan / ton on the second half of December, and the highest price was 2016.67 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com) on the commodity, the main quotation range of domestic market of polyaluminium chloride is mainly concentrated in: the quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) with tax is about 1800-2200 yuan / ton, the quotation of liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%) with tax is about 380-450 yuan / ton, and the freight of some manufacturers in Henan is increased this month, so the quotation is increased by 50 yuan / ton Right, but some traders in North China have reduced their quotation by 200 yuan / ton due to the lower procurement cost in the early stage.

Industrial chain: in the six months from July to December, when the starting rate of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers is high, the production is normal, the quantity of goods is sufficient and the demand growth is stable in July, the supply is surplus and the price is down; since the middle of August, due to the influence of environmental protection and other factors, the starting of manufacturers is limited, the supply of goods is reduced and the price is up, which continues to the late September. After the National Day in October, the production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers returned to normal, and the supply of goods was relatively stable. In general, in addition to the sharp rise of polyaluminium price caused by the shutdown in the third quarter, the price of polyaluminium chloride in the fourth quarter dropped slightly; the trend in November was similar to the “Z” shape of the extended version; the price in December fell to 1833.33 yuan / ton steadily. Among the upstream raw materials, the price of hydrochloric acid in North China monitored by the business association rose sharply in 2019, while the price in December was reduced by about 40 yuan / ton, 290 yuan / ton on December 1, 253 yuan / ton on December 31, down 12.64%. Downstream, in the winter construction off-season, the purchase volume is sharply reduced, the quantity of polyaluminium chloride is sufficient, the cost is reduced, and the supporting effect on the price of polyaluminium chloride is weakened.

Industry: this round of intermittent production stoppage started in late July has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production one after another. This round of production stoppage cycle returns, and the production is stopped again in four seasons according to the requirements of environmental protection: in late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production stoppage, which requires: according to the environmental pollution status of the whole city and the pollution weather in the future According to the situation analysis, the municipal office requires all deep governance enterprises to stop production and governance before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. 2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.

Future market forecast: the analysis of the business agency shows that the lower upstream raw material price is conducive to the manufacturer’s control of production costs. After the new year’s day in 2020, the Gongyi manufacturer in Henan Province will restart, the supply of goods will increase, and the supply of goods will be sufficient, while the winter construction determines the reduction of the downstream procurement. To sum up, polyaluminium chloride market shock weak trend, pay attention to the start-up and inventory situation of manufacturers in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of sulfur continued to decline in 2019. At the beginning of the year, the average ex factory price of sulfur in East China was 1360 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the average ex factory price was 503.33 yuan / ton, a 62.99% drop in the year. At the end of the year, the price was also the lowest price in 2019, and the highest price in the year was 1433.33 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

In the first stage, from the beginning of the year to the beginning of March, affected by the long Spring Festival holiday of traditional festivals and the overall downturn of downstream demand, the delivery of production enterprises all over the country presents different pressures. In the downstream, due to the poor delivery of compound fertilizer enterprises and the reduction of the operating rate, the monoammonium market in the ammonium phosphate Market is in weak operation as a whole, while the new export orders of diammonium enterprises are in slow progress, and they are stuck in finishing operation, which has an impact on the sulfur market Demand is light.

In the second stage, from the middle of March to may, monoammonium in the market of ammonium phosphate rose slightly, and the overall market of diammonium was stable. The buying atmosphere in the port market has recovered. The firmness of the external price makes the market more stable. The overall trend of the market is upward, and the domestic sulfur market as a whole presents a shock upward trend. However, in May, downstream demand declined, market support was limited, and the market began to fluctuate.

In the third stage, from June to early October, the price of sulphuric acid continued to decline. Strong supporting factors are hard to find, domestic demand is light and continuous, and merchants’ negative wait-and-see mood, after a long period of stalemate and consolidation, the domestic sulfone Market can only move downward. The main reasons for the decline of the market are the decline of the external market price, the slow consumption of the port inventory, and the difficulty in boosting the downstream demand.

In the fourth stage, from the beginning of October to the end of the year, the general trend of domestic resources has declined, and the downstream demand in various regions has been weak to varying degrees. The domestic market has been impacted by port prices, and the pricing has been declining, and the downstream performance is mainly on demand. The port inventory is still high and low consumption, and there is no change. The market atmosphere is low, and the market continues to decline.

3、 Future forecast

According to the sulfur analyst of the business association, the current situation of high stock in Hong Kong has not changed, the downstream demand performance is weak, the factory purchases on demand and small orders, and there is no substantive good guidance on supply and demand. In addition, the internal and external support is weak, and most of the enterprises hold a cautious wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the sulfur market will be reorganized and operated in the later stage, depending on the plant conditions in the later stage.

Monday (December 30) in Asia, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, maintaining a three-and-a-half-month high as a whole. Oil prices closed positive for four weeks, the longest consecutive increase since April, due to the positive impact of the US EIA crude oil inventory falling to the lowest level in two months, the stock market rising, and OPEC + deepening production reduction.

However, due to weak production reduction alliance and low global crude oil demand, the supply and demand of oil prices are still unbalanced in 2020, which will be reflected in the pattern of supply exceeding demand, which foreshadows the medium-term downward trend of oil prices.

Russia said that OPEC + crude oil production reduction has stabilized the global oil market, but will not last forever, because after March 2020, the uncertainty faced by the future of the production reduction agreement continues.

Russian energy minister Novak said in an interview, “the reduction of crude oil production cannot be permanent, and we will gradually need to decide to withdraw from the agreement. Russia needs to defend its market share and let its oil companies develop new projects. ”

Novak did not specify when Russia might decide to withdraw from the deal, but said it expected to discuss it with OPEC + colleagues in 2020, with global oil demand surging as early as next summer.

“In fact, OPEC has cut large-scale oil supply for quite a long time, and the duration of its action and the scale of production reduction are mostly unusual,” said Martijn rats, commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley. There is still a need for longer and larger cuts, reflecting the potential weakness of market fundamentals. ”

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the overall ABS market fell in 2019, and the spot price in the domestic market shrank to a certain extent. As of December 30, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 12666.67 yuan / ton, down 22.76% from the beginning of the year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in the upstream of PA6, in the first half of 2019, the domestic caprolactam market basically showed an inverted V-shaped trend, with a basic balance between supply and demand in the market and a stable market price. After the first quarter of the festival, due to the centralized commencement of downstream chip manufacturers, insufficient stock of raw materials before the festival, relatively high purchasing atmosphere, and high overall starting load, the market price continued to rise. At the end of March, some caprolactam units were shut down for maintenance, the supply of goods was slightly tight, and the market maintained a rising trend. At the beginning of the second quarter, the early trend continued, but as the downstream demand gradually weakened, the overall supply and demand returned to stability again, the market price peaked, and the industry returned to wait and see. By May and June, affected by the macro environment, the demand in the terminal market remained light. Although the starting load of upstream and downstream units in the site fell to the new low in recent years, the sluggish demand in the terminal market made the market price of caprolactam continue to fall. In the third quarter, caprolactam rose as a whole due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials. The supply of spot goods was tight, which promoted the increase of caprolactam market, and then entered the downturn in the fourth quarter. In October, the price of pure benzene began to fall, the supply of domestic products increased, and the bearish sentiment increased. Caprolactam prices began to decline in October. The downstream procurement is cautious, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the market supply exceeds the demand.

Products: PA6 market relatively stable into the Spring Festival at the beginning of the year. After the festival, the cost side strengthened and the price recovered slightly. At the end of the first quarter, some large-scale factories reported an increase in price, and the manufacturer’s parking maintenance plan increased. On the other hand, the demand in the downstream is weak and the market is in a stalemate. By April, the demand was still not improved, but the price trend of upstream caprolactam liquid continued to strengthen, and the supply was further tight. Raw materials are lifted to PA6 disk to offset the shortage of downstream procurement. By may, the start-up rate of upstream caprolactam had increased, the inventory of manufacturers was high, and the price began to decline. PA6 lost the strong support of cost side, the confidence of domestic PA6 industry was impacted, and the quotation of manufacturers was mostly lowered. PA6 followed the rise and fall of caprolactam in July and August. After entering the “golden nine silver ten” traditional peak season, the demand of downstream industries such as home appliances has increased, which has injected the long lost good from itself into PA6 and stepped out of a wave of positive rising stage market. However, the supply of PA6 in China tends to expand, and the demand is weak for half a year, which leads to the closure of traditional peak season grass. The response of the “silver ten” peak season is limited. The manufacturers failed in trying to hold up their prices, and the prices were weak. At the end of the year, it entered the market of looking up and down. At present, PA6 keeps falling with raw materials. Looking at the market of PA6 in 2019pa6, it seems that the cloudy and sunny days of caprolactam have more reference significance. The rise and fall of PA6 spot price in the whole year is largely consistent with the upstream price, but this also reflects the fact that PA6 market is less favorable from the product itself. The growth of demand has lagged behind, the increase of domestic production capacity, PA6 has also followed other rubber and plastic brother industries into the queue of supply and demand imbalance.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in 2019, PA6 market volatility fell. The annual trend of upstream caprolactam is also not ideal, PA6 market is greatly affected by the fluctuation of upstream caprolactam. However, PA6′s own growth momentum is insufficient, and the growth of downstream demand does not match the increase of production capacity. The mentality of the industry is bearish and the operation is cautious. The downstream replenishment is mainly based on rigid demand throughout the year, and the delivery and investment are average. PA6 market in the whole year has great upward resistance, and it is expected that it will not improve in the short term.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 × 3)

2. Latest price (December 30, 2019): 11833.33 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 11600-11700 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 11500-11700 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 12400-12600 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, that in Huangpu port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, that in Huangpu port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton 。

3. Analysis points:

Recently, the domestic trade market began to start, because the domestic aluminum alloy factory stock up during the Spring Festival, the volume of information sheet increased. At present, social inventory continues to move down, supporting the current metal silicon price.

4. Aftermarket forecast: the aftermarket is mainly waiting for the change of downstream demand, and it is expected that the short-term stable operation of silicon metal is the main thing.

1. Trade name: magnesium ingot (9990)

2. Latest price (December 30, 2019): 14166.67 yuan / ton

On December 30, 2019, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in main domestic production areas was weak and stable, and the specific price range was as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu area is 14100-14200 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Taiyuan area is 14200-14300 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Wenxi area is 14200-14400 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Ningxia area is 14100-14200 yuan / ton.

3. Key points of analysis: at the beginning of last week, the price of magnesium ingot stopped falling and rising. It is reported that in the near future, the number of information sheets has increased, the delivery and investment have improved, and the stock of some manufacturers is not much, and the willingness to stand up is firm. Downstream alloy manufacturers and magnesium powder manufacturers started to prepare goods years ago, and presale contracts sometimes occur.

4. Future market forecast: the overall market turns better. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingot will maintain stable and strong operation in the near future, and pay attention to the actual transaction situation in the market in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of soda ash this week is stable. During the week, the average market price in East China was 1560 yuan / ton from the weekend, which was stable compared with the weekend last year, down 26.53% year on year. On December 27, the commodity index of light soda ash was 80.00, flat with yesterday, down 32.12% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.68% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic soda price market is weak and stable, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. The market trend of soda ash has not changed much, the inventory of enterprises is under certain pressure, and the shipment of individual enterprises has improved, and the maintenance or reduction of devices has been achieved. This week, the number of maintenance and production restriction manufacturers increased, and the weighted average starting load of soda ash manufacturers was 81.19%. Prices fell to a low level, downstream users moderately prepared goods before the festival, some downstream demand performance improved, and enterprise inventory decreased. Spot price: 1530 yuan / ton of heavy soda in Shahe market; 1700 yuan / ton of heavy soda in North China and 1600 yuan / ton of heavy soda in East China.

In terms of supply: the 300000 ton plant of Hebang No.1 plant is expected to start operation next week. Shaanxi Xinghua and Henan Junhua plan to start operation in the past two days. In the process of continuous production restriction of sodium carbonate in Haihua, the southern alkali industry is operating at half load, which affects the output as a whole. The enterprise inventory has been eased, and the trend of sodium carbonate is stable. At present, it is still the centralized period for downstream users to prepare goods before the Spring Festival. The overall order receiving and shipment situation of soda ash manufacturers is improved, and the inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers may be relieved next week.

Demand: downstream demand, general performance, purchasing sentiment improved. The downstream demand of light alkali is general, the price of domestic baking soda continues to decline in the near future, the market of daily glass, sodium tripolyphosphate, effervescence alkali, monosodium glutamate and other products is general, and the overall profit is low. The downstream of heavy soda is dominated by glass enterprises. The float glass manufacturers have little change in the amount of soda ash. The price of soda ash is at a low level. The glass manufacturers have a good profit situation, stable production, and a long period of safety stock. Before the Spring Festival, the glass manufacturers should properly stock up.

3、 Future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of the business association, the delivery situation of domestic soda ash manufacturers has improved recently, and the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has continued to decline, but the overall inventory is still at a high level. The downstream demand is general, and the end-user shall replenish the warehouse and stock up properly before the Spring Festival. Although the operating rate and domestic inventory of some soda ash enterprises have declined recently, the inventory is still at a high level, and the period price is still under obvious pressure. Considering the Spring Festival, traders are more cautious to watch the market, and it is expected that the soda ash market will be sorted out and operated next week.