1、 Overall trend

This week (12.16-12.20) polyethylene showed a weak decline, in which the average price of LDPE 2426h in East China monitored by the business club was about 8112.5 yuan / ton; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 7950 yuan / ton; the average price of LLDPE 7042 was about 7383.33 yuan / ton. As of December 20, the prices of LLDPE and LDPE in East China first stabilized and then fell this week, while the prices of HDPE this week showed a horizontal trend. This week, the overall trend of PE market is weak, most of which fell by 50-150 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, the futures market rebounded slightly, which supported the market to a certain extent. Most of the spot markets were stable. On Tuesday, the futures market began to fall in shock, which depressed the market mentality. Businesses adjusted their offers and prices fell. In many areas of petrochemicals, the factory price has been reduced, and the terminal demand is weak, so the market has continued to decline.

On December 23, the LLDPE commodity index was 70.39, down 0.32 points from yesterday, down 40.12% from 117.56 (2013-12-11), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.69% from 69.91, the lowest point on September 8, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The LDPE commodity index on December 23 was 62.74, down 0.39 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 44.64% from 113.33, the highest on December 8, 2013. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

On December 23, the HDPE commodity index was 64.17, down 0.27 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 37.29% from the highest point of 102.33 on July 24, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Upstream: oil prices rose steadily this week. On Monday (December 16), WTI crude oil futures settled at $60.21 a barrel in January 2020, up $0.14/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.77-60.34; Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.34 a barrel in February 2020, up $0.12/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.88-65.66/barrel. On Friday (December 20), WTI crude oil futures settlement price in February 2020 was $60.44 per barrel, down $0.78/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.02-61.20/barrel; Brent crude oil futures settlement price in February 2020 was $66.14 per barrel, down $0.40/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.70-66.72/barrel.

Import and export: about 1336500 tons of PE will be imported in October 2019. Among them, the import volume of LLDPE is 425200 tons; the import volume of HDPE is 643000 tons; the import volume of LDPE is 268300 tons, and the total export volume of PE in October 2019 is 28200 tons. The export volume of PE is 8500 tons, HDPE is 16300 tons and LLDPE is 3400 tons.

Manufacturer’s trends: this week, the demand for plastic film in the lower reaches of PE decreased, the demand for plastic film increased in succession, and the manufacturer’s quotation for plastic film was basically stable. However, many areas are still restricted by the environmental protection policy.

Futures trend: according to the monitoring of the business club, on December 20, the opening price of polyethylene futures l2005 was 7260, the highest price was 7370, the lowest price was 7255, the closing price was 7330, the former settlement price was 7245, the settlement price was 7305, up 85, up 1.17%, the volume was 584578, the position was 725956, and the daily increase was 33450. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

3、 Future forecast

Looking forward to the future, business analysts believe that the current strong rise in international oil prices, linear futures rebound, the market has some support. However, the petrochemical inventory has accumulated, and the downstream is in conflict with the high price supply, so the transaction is still difficult. It is expected that the future market may fall in the short term.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of Polyoxymethylene (96) in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 4516 yuan / ton, while the average price of polyoxymethylene at the end of the week was 4483 yuan / ton, down 0.74%.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM. The ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4450 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM. The ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4200 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4800 yuan / ton, with stable quotation.

Industrial chain: upstream methanol, domestic methanol market weak downward. The downstream pesticide market is not good, the demand is down, and some enterprises’ quotation is down.

3、 Future forecast

To sum up, the business club POM analysts believe that POM may continue to operate in a weak way.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus fell slightly this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the week was 18250 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 18150 yuan / ton. The price fell slightly within the week, with a range of 0.55%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: yellow phosphorus market price fell slightly this week. Downstream replenishment enthusiasm is not high, market procurement is not warm. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 17800 yuan / ton. The quotation in Sichuan is about 18500-17900 yuan / ton. The overall market performance is poor, and traders are mainly on the sidelines.

Industry chain: this week, the new orders of domestic phosphorus ore market are still poor, the market trading is light, continue weak consolidation, the downstream sporadic procurement, some mining enterprises limit production and price protection, the off-season is coming, the price basically remains unchanged before the Spring Festival. The market price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) is temporarily stable, and the mainstream price is 2030 yuan / ton. In the downstream phosphoric acid market, phosphoric acid has been in a high consolidation state in the near future. The price is higher than that in previous years. Affected by environmental protection, the operating rate is low, the downstream demand is reduced, the on-site trading is flat, and the wet process phosphoric acid is relatively good for shipment, but the overall market is still weak.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the price of yellow phosphorus market fell slightly this week, the overall market of yellow phosphorus was light, and the rigid demand was limited, so it was difficult to form a strong support for the market. In the near future, some enterprises in Guizhou have plans to resume production, and it is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus is mainly weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of Saturday (December 21), the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several mainstream areas monitored by the data is 18834 yuan / ton, which is about 500 yuan / ton higher than that of last Saturday (December 14), with an increase of 2.73%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the market of organosilicon rose again this week. Many enterprises entered the sealed disk mode, and the supply is still tight. The first-hand supply is basically wiped out, which can be described as entering the “tight price rise mode”. The double festival is coming, and the “pre Festival” production is limited, and the downstream stock is increasing, mainly for the Spring Festival. At present, the organic silicon industry chain is basically good. The whole market is under the law of buying up and not buying down, and the transaction is active. In addition, the emergence of the good news that “the text of the first phase economic and trade agreement between China and the United States reached an agreement” in this year has increased the export list of the organic silicon downstream industry chain. I heard that the heads of several brand enterprises in the organic silicon industry chain in Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and Dawan district have recently received The export order of the downstream industrial chain of organosilicon has been scheduled to April 2020, which will give strong support to the whole organosilicon market. At present, the reference quotation of organosilicon DMC market is around 18700-19300 yuan / ton, and many manufacturers are reluctant to sell and seal the disk, and the price goes with the market. At present, the overall atmosphere of the market is optimistic.

Operation of the plant: Zhejiang Hesheng plant has an annual output of 180000 tons, and the plant is under maintenance; Shandong Luxi Chemical silicone plant has an annual output of 80000 tons, and the plant is under maintenance; Shandong Jinling Chemical plant has an annual output of 120000 tons, and the plant is under maintenance; Zhejiang new installation has an annual output of 350000 tons, and the plant is normal; ekan silicone Jiangxi base has an annual output of 450000 tons, and the unit is under normal load; Hubei Xingfa The organosilicon unit has a capacity of 200000 tons / year, and the unit is normal; the annual capacity of Sanyou chemical plant in Tangshan has a capacity of 200000 tons, and the unit is subject to limited production maintenance.

Industrial chain: this time, the price of silicone industry has increased substantially from the top to the bottom, which has driven the collective rise of the downstream industrial chain. This week, the retail price of the first-line brand “silicone rubber” has increased by about 10% led by the downstream product 107 rubber, and the inventory consumption is low. Several brands of silicone, silicone oil and gas silicon production enterprises have indicated that the inventory clearing speed has been accelerated, and some models have started single production. At present, the factory quotation of 107 glue from many manufacturers has exceeded 19000 yuan / ton. According to the current situation, 107 glue is expected to exceed 20000 yuan / ton before the festival.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts think: at present, the overall support surface of the silicone industry chain is good, and it is expected that the silicone DMC will continue to maintain a strong operation before the end of the pre Festival stock up.

On December 18, the rare earth index was 341 points, unchanged from yesterday, 65.90% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 25.83% higher than the lowest point, 271 points, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium is 364500 yuan / ton, 2125000 yuan / ton and 650000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth oxide is 289500 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide is increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1750000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide is 342500 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide is 291500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy is 364500 yuan / ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1710000 yuan / ton.

The price of heavy and rare earth in the rare earth market continued to rise, the domestic supply policy of heavy and rare earth market and the export of heavy and rare earth improved. Myanmar unilaterally closed the customs clearance port, the domestic supply decreased significantly, and the domestic price trend of heavy and rare earth continued to rise. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has not changed much in the near future, the market trend of PR nd series products is general, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price is slightly lower. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and the data in 2019 It’s the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market has increased.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced, coupled with favorable support for the export of rare earth industry in China, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market is still expected to continue to rise, while the price of light rare earth is mainly volatile.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acetic anhydride was adjusted in 2019, showing an overall “n” shape decline. As of December 17, the average price of acetic anhydride quoted by enterprises was 4475.00 yuan / ton, down 25.83% compared with 6033.33 yuan / ton quoted at the beginning of 2019 (January 1), and down 29.34% compared with the same period last year. Since October 2017, the price of acetic anhydride has remained high. Starting from the end of October 2018, the acetic anhydride price has started a long “return journey”. By December 2019, the average price of acetic anhydride had dropped to about 4400 yuan / ton, returning to the average price of acetic anhydride in 2017. In the price trend of acetic anhydride in 2019, the price of acetic anhydride is obviously divided into three stages.

The first stage: the price of acetic anhydride fell steadily

In addition to the short rebound of acetic anhydride caused by transportation and other factors during the Spring Festival of 2019, the first half of 2019 continued the downward trend of acetic anhydride since October 2018, and the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply. As of June 1, the price of acetic anhydride has dropped by 23.20% compared with the price at the beginning of the year.

The second stage: acetic anhydride price rising period

June August 2019 is the range of acetic anhydride price increase. As of August 17, 2019, the price of acetic anhydride is 7066.67 yuan / ton, 52.52% higher than that of June 1. Due to the centralized maintenance of acetic anhydride manufacturers in June and equipment explosion of acetic acid manufacturers in July, the price of acetic acid and methanol soared, the price of raw materials for acetic anhydride rose, and the price of acetic anhydride rose in a short term.

The third stage: acetic anhydride market recovered and fell

Since late August, with the recovery of the operating rate of acetic anhydride enterprises, the price rise of acetic anhydride has been suspended and the price has fallen. Since September, the price of acetic acid and methanol, the raw material of acetic anhydride, has fallen sharply. As of December 19, the price of acetic anhydride is 4475.00 yuan / ton, 36.67% lower than the highest price in 2019 (August 17).

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business association, the price of acetic anhydride in 2019 generally shows a downward trend. Although there was a short-term rise in June and July, it is more because of force majeure factors such as manufacturer’s equipment maintenance and equipment explosion, and the basic relationship between supply and demand of acetic anhydride has not changed fundamentally. After a short-term soaring, the price of acetic anhydride began to return to a downward trend. By December, the price of acetic anhydride fell back to about 4400 yuan / ton. The price has recovered to the average price level before the soaring price of acetic anhydride in 2017, and the supply and demand of acetic anhydride are basically balanced. The market of acetic anhydride in the future has lost the price support of acetic anhydride shortage. The price of raw materials of acetic anhydride is basically stable. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride in the future will fluctuate and maintain stable. In 2020, the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate with the price of raw materials and the impact of supply and demand, but it is difficult to have the market for 18 years. The price of acetic anhydride may fluctuate and adjust between 4400-5000.

On December 19, the fluorite commodity index was 101.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.34% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 106.38% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite is stable temporarily. As of the 19th, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2894.44 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic fluorite device has been started normally, the mine and flotation device in the field have been started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has increased slightly in recent years. For the purchase on demand in fluorite market, the goods in the fluorite field are generally sold, and the price trend of fluorite market is stable temporarily. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is normal, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not getting better, which leads to the market price maintaining volatility. As of the 19th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton. The price trend of fluorite was stable temporarily.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the downstream of fluorite has been fluctuating. As of the 19th, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in China was 10240 yuan / ton. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite is normal, and the price of fluorite remains low. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has maintained a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price remains volatile, and the downstream market has not changed much. In addition, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is volatile in the near future, so the fluorite market may be well supported.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry has improved, the supply of fluorite in the North has declined gradually, and the recent market of hydrofluoric acid has a rising trend. According to Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, the market price of fluorite may rise slightly.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the price trend of domestic TDI market decreased slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in East China was 11466.67 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average market price was 11400.00 yuan / ton, down 0.58% in the week, down 44.39% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic TDI market was weak, the overall market atmosphere was general, the downstream market intention was weak, the transaction was weak, the mentality of the industry was different, some of the stable shipments were reported higher. As of the 13th, the quotation of domestic goods with bills in East China was 10700-10900 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills was 11000-11200 yuan / ton. The overall market atmosphere was weak, the inquiry and purchase were not smooth, and most of the enterprises kept stable shipment.

Industry chain: the price of upstream nitric acid was slightly reduced. The average market price in East China at the weekend was 1600.00 yuan / ton, 1.03% lower than 1616.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The market of nitric acid industry was sluggish, with general demand. The quotation of enterprises was basically stable and maintained weak. The quotation of individual manufacturers was also reduced. It is expected that the nitric acid market will continue to be weak.

In terms of upstream toluene, the market was stable this week, up about 0.67% as of Friday. In terms of market conditions, it focuses on market transaction and port inventory, as well as the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations and the crude oil trend under the expectation of OPEC production reduction. On the other hand, the long holiday in Europe and the United States is coming, and it is expected that the toluene market will continue its stable and volatile trend in the later period.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis by the Data Engineer of the business agency: the market atmosphere of TDI is low, all parties pay attention to the information of suppliers, offer cautiously, the downstream raw material inventory is abundant, the market intention is low, and the inquiry and purchase are weak. It is expected that the TDI market will be narrowed and the factory information will be focused.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (December 17): 533.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic sulfur market is stable in the middle and down, and the atmosphere in the market is light. Sinopec’s quotation in East China has been stable, with the mainstream price of solid sulfur at 520-660 yuan / ton and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur at 470-630 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur at 490-530 yuan / ton and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur at 470-510 yuan / ton in North China; the mainstream price of solid sulfur at 540 yuan / ton and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur at 460-540 yuan / ton in Shandong /Tons.

At present, the port inventory is still high, consumption is slow, the atmosphere of on-site negotiation is cold, a small number of transactions, and the market performance is quiet. The downstream sulfuric acid market is in weak operation. At present, the main acid plant is under maintenance, with lower start-up, tepid demand, weak purchase intention and short-term or wait-and-see operation. The demand for phosphate fertilizer is weak, and the downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing and keep a wait-and-see attitude.

Future market forecast: at present, the domestic sulfur market continues to be weak, the port inventory consumption is slow, the contradiction between supply and demand is still the same, the atmosphere of on-site negotiation is cold, the industry is mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and it is expected that the sulfur market will be weak and stable in the later stage.

After a three-month low period in the ammonium chloride market, Zui has finally ushered in signs of improvement. The downstream demand has been gradually released. In addition, the rebound of urea has also brought power to the ammonium chloride market. The market of ammonium chloride has stopped falling and stabilized. Some enterprises have begun to limit orders. Prices in some regions have risen slightly, with a range of around 30 yuan / ton.

Overall, the domestic ammonium chloride market is still mixed with good and bad. In terms of starting, the starting rate of domestic ammonium chloride industry is around 80%. Some enterprises in East China have shut down their facilities, while those in Central China and southwest China have started at a high level. Some enterprises are full load production, and there is no indication that there will be a maintenance plan in a short period of time. Therefore, the starting rate of combined alkali enterprises will remain at a high level.

In terms of demand, in recent years, the shipment volume of ammonium chloride enterprises has increased significantly, the start-up of compound fertilizer manufacturers is gradually recovering, the winter storage market has started, the market trading atmosphere has improved significantly, and some enterprises are limited to receive orders, mainly in advance. In the later stage, with the release of downstream demand, the market of ammonium chloride will be gradually improved and developed.

From the export point of view, after the price of domestic ammonium chloride fell sharply, the export volume grew rapidly, the export volume increased 131.41% month on month, the export situation was good, to some extent, it distributed the pressure of overcapacity in the domestic market, which was conducive to the stability of the domestic market price.

On the other hand, the market situation of soda ash market is weak, the domestic market is oversupplied, and the manufacturers’ double ton cost pressure is large, so the enterprises have a strong attitude of pricing.

Generally speaking, with the promotion of winter storage market and gradual release of downstream demand, the trend of ammonium chloride enterprises is relatively stable, but it is relatively difficult to increase the price by a large margin. In the short term, the price in some areas may rise by a small margin. In the later stage, it is necessary to focus on the procurement of downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers and the parking and maintenance of the combined alkali unit.