In this week (12.23-12.27), the price of NBR fell slightly. At the beginning of the week, the price of NBR was 16433 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the price of NBR was 16333 yuan / ton, with a slight decline of 0.61% overall.

Low price of raw butadiene

Butadiene price is low, which weakens the support for NBR. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of butadiene in this week (12.23-12.27) is around 8345 yuan / ton, with little overall change.

Stable ex factory price of petrochemicals

The unit of NBR manufacturer in China is in normal operation, the factory price of NBR is stable, and the overall operation rate of NBR unit is around 70%. According to the business agency, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 65000 T / a unit is in normal operation. This week, the factory price of Lanhua NBR is stable. At present, n41e reports 15000 yuan / ton, 3305e reports 15500 yuan / ton, and 3308e reports 15600 yuan / ton.

Downstream inquiry on demand

The demand of the downstream plant of NBR is weak, and the demand inquiry for NBR is more on demand, so the overall NBR market is relatively weak and stable.

Outlook for the future

According to Xu Xiaokun, an analyst of business agency, the price of raw materials is low, and the downstream inquiry is on demand, so the overall NBR is slightly weak. It is expected that the NBR market will continue to be weak in the later period.

Slava kiryushin, DWF’s head of global energy, highlighted the expected trends in the global energy sector in 2020, according to hydrocarbon processing news on December 26.

When it comes to global oil trade in 2020, kiryushin is expected to see oversupply. “Many oil traders predict a bull market for the global oil industry in 2020, and some of them even speculate that oil prices could reach $100 / barrel,” he said. However, recent market analysis shows that this is unlikely to happen, and the market will be in a state of oversupply. I think this is mainly due to the increase of shale gas production and the lower than expected global economic growth. The latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) supports the idea that there will be a global oversupply. ”

“Even the new shipping fuel regulation (i.e. IMO 2020) to be implemented in January 2020 is not expected to change this trend, although it may lead to increased demand for low sulfur gasoline and diesel. There is no doubt that the growth of oil supply is a sensitive topic for OPEC + member countries, because 500000 barrels / day of production has been agreed to be cut from OPEC’s supply. Overall, the market is not so optimistic about the ‘recovery’ of oil prices. ”

According to kiryushin, demand for natural gas is likely to increase by 2020. “Unlike hydrocarbons, natural gas demand is likely to grow in 2020 and beyond,” he said. Whether it’s due to IMO 2020, the demand for chemical products (requiring natural gas) or the environmental impetus to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it can prove that the demand for natural gas will increase. ”

“Climate change also has a significant impact on gas demand. Whether it’s using natural gas as a fuel to keep the northern hemisphere warm in the cold winter or converting it into electricity to drive air conditioning in the hot summer, natural gas will remain at the forefront of the energy sector in 2020. ”

“The only real question is whether oil related gas prices are sufficiently competitive with alternative fuels.”

1、 Price trend

In 2019, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province fluctuated, and on the whole, it rose significantly. The price of hydrochloric acid in the first and second quarter all rose tentatively, but it was weak in the follow-up, and the price fell again after sticking to it for several days. From the third quarter, the price of hydrochloric acid began to rise all the way, especially in the first ten days of November. According to the data monitored by the business association, in 2019, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province rose, and the average price quoted by mainstream manufacturers rose from 90.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 273.33 yuan / ton at the end of the year, an increase of 203.70%. It can be clearly seen from the price trend chart of hydrochloric acid that the highest comprehensive quotation of hydrochloric acid Market in 2019 is at the end of November, with the quotation of 290.00 yuan / ton, while the lowest price appears at the end of May, with the quotation of 70.00 yuan / ton, the highest difference of 220.00 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude of 314.29%.

2、 Trend analysis

In 2019, the comprehensive price trend of hydrochloric acid is roughly divided into two stages in the first half of the year: the first half of the year saw tentative increase in the price of hydrochloric acid, but the subsequent support was insufficient; in the second half of the year, affected by the market of liquid chlorine, the price of hydrochloric acid began to rise. The specific trend is as follows:

First half of the year: the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province increased slightly. As can be seen from the hydrochloric acid trend chart above, the price of hydrochloric acid rose slightly in the first half of the year. The comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid rose from 90 yuan / ton on January 1 to 100 yuan / ton on June 30, an increase of 11.11%. During this period, the price of hydrochloric acid rose twice in the first and second quarter. In the first quarter, the price of hydrochloric acid rose from 90 yuan / ton on January 1 to 150 yuan / ton on January 8, an increase of 66.67%, and the price began to fall after five days. In the second quarter, the price of hydrochloric acid rose from 80 yuan / ton on March 25 to 177.50 yuan / ton on April 12, an increase of 121.88%. Although the price lasted a long time in the second quarter, in May, the price of hydrochloric acid began to fall again. In the first half of the year, although the production and sales rate of the original salt was 97%, the price of the liquid chlorine market peaked in April.

In the second half of the year: the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province started to rise. As can be seen from the hydrochloric acid trend chart above, the price of hydrochloric acid rose significantly in the second half of the year. The comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid rose from 100 yuan / ton on July 1 to 273.33 yuan / ton on December 26, an increase of 173.33%. During this period, the price of hydrochloric acid rose most obviously in the first ten days of November, and the quotation rose from 163.33 yuan / ton on November 4 to 290.00 yuan / ton on November 13, an increase of 77.55%. In the third quarter of the second half of the year, the production and sales rate of the original salt was 99.7%, and the liquid chlorine market also had the highest price in November.

3、 Industrial chain:

Upstream market: Although the original salt production and sales rate slightly fell in 2019, the cumulative percentage of the original salt production and sales rate fell from 120.08% in the first quarter to 97% in the second quarter, and then slightly rose to 99.7% in the third quarter. However, the market performance of liquid chlorine in 19 years was strong, and compared with the previous positive and negative market, there was a sense of “strong counterattack” in 19 years. During this period, the market peaked in April and November respectively, reaching a high-end price of 1100 yuan / ton.

Downstream market: Although the market price of hydrochloric acid has been greatly increased, there is no substantial improvement in downstream demand. The downtrend of downstream market is serious, and the construction is declining, which directly leads to the decrease of hydrochloric acid commodity supply, laying a foundation for the continuous upward trend of hydrochloric acid market.

4、 Future forecast

Hydrochloric acid market may continue to consolidate at a high level in early 2020. From the perspective of Shandong Province, there are still new projects in the downstream in 2020, and the caustic soda market will still have greater pressure in 2020 under the transformation and upgrading of China and environmental protection at all levels. It is expected that the hydrochloric acid market will continue to be consolidated at a high level at the beginning of 2020.

1、 Market Overview

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of domestic fluorite fell sharply in 2019, with an average price of 3633.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and 28944400 tons at the end of the year, with a decline of 20.34% for the whole year. As can be seen clearly from the price trend chart of fluorite, the highest price of fluorite in 2019 appears at the beginning of the year, with the highest price of 3633.33 yuan / ton. The lowest price of fluorite appears on April 22, with the lowest price of 2815 yuan / ton. The market price of the whole year drops sharply.

2、 Market analysis

In 2019, the price trend of the whole year is roughly divided into three stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the middle of April, and the price of domestic fluorite market drops sharply; the second stage is from the late April to the middle of July, and the price of domestic fluorite rebounds and rises; the third stage is from the late July to the end of the year, and the price trend of fluorite fluctuates and falls, and the specific trend is as follows:

In the first stage, from the beginning of 2019 to the middle of April, the price of fluorite in the domestic market dropped sharply. The price at the beginning of the year was 3633.33 yuan / ton, and the price in the middle of April was 2815 yuan / ton, with a sharp decline of 22.10%. The main impacts are as follows: on the one hand, in terms of supply, due to the warm weather, the recent start-up and restart of domestic fluorite plants, the continuous opening of mines and flotation plants in the field, the supply of fluorite in the field is relatively increased, the domestic fluorite field has sufficient spot supply, and the price of fluorite continues to decline; on the other hand, in terms of demand, the domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have sufficient stock before the year, during the holidays After the purchase is limited, the fluorite market is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid drops sharply. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid drops by as much as 25%. The downstream market price of hydrofluoric acid drops and the raw materials of manufacturers are in stock. The fluorite market is dragged down and the price keeps falling. Finally, the downstream refrigerant product units in the terminal market are generally started, the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid is weakened, the downstream refrigerant trading market is general, the unit starting rate in R22 market is low, the main production enterprises mainly ship a small amount of steel cylinders, and the actual demand of the market has declined, so the shipping market trend is poor. The market price of R134a in China is low, the unit operating rate of production enterprises is low, the refrigerant market demand is weak, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the transaction price in the market does not change much, and the merchants purchase on demand. Affected by various negative factors, the price of fluorite in the first stage fell sharply.

The second stage is from late April to mid July, with domestic fluorite prices rebounding and rising. The price of fluorite in China increased from 2815 yuan / ton to 3150 yuan / ton, or 12%. The price of fluorite in China has risen. On the one hand, as the domestic refrigeration industry enters the peak season of sales, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant keeps rising, and the demand for fluorite has increased. The price of fluorite is higher supported by the favorable market. On the other hand, the supply of domestic fluorite enterprises is a little tight, environmental protection efforts are not reduced, the operating rate of small fluorite manufacturers is low, the supply of domestic fluorite is insufficient, and the price of fluorite is supported to some extent. In the second price segment, the price of domestic fluorite rose, but the overall demand did not improve significantly. The price of fluorite rose 10% in three months.

The third stage is from late July to the end of the year. Fluorite prices fluctuated and fell. With the end of the sales peak season of the domestic refrigeration industry, the price of domestic fluorite returned to a downward trend. In late July, the price was 3150 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the price of fluorite was 2894.44 yuan / ton, with a decline of 8% in the third stage. During this period, the supply of fluorite in China was normal, and some fluorite manufacturers had high inventory, which made the price of fluorite decline. In addition, the operating rate of domestic refrigerant industry in the second half of the year was very low. According to statistics, the overall operating rate of the refrigeration industry was about 30%. The demand of downstream refrigerant industry was not good. The demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid was not improved, and the price of fluorite gradually declined. Finally, the price of fluorite from abroad has impacted the domestic fluorite market. Fluorite from Mongolia and Central Asian countries has been imported to China. The price of imported fluorite is relatively low. The domestic fluorite market has been impacted, and the price of fluorite is low.

In general, in 2019, the fluorite market dropped significantly, and the price trend of all products in the fluorine chemical industry declined. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the downstream of fluorite in 2019 is as follows:

From the correlation trend chart of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid, it can be clearly seen that the two trends are quite similar. In 2019, the market prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid are significantly lower, domestic demand is not improving, and the market of fluorine chemical raw materials is not good.

3、 Future forecast

Chen Ling, an analyst with fluorite business club, thinks that fluorite market will be tepid in 2020. From the perspective of fluorite market supply, domestic environmental protection efforts will not be reduced, and some domestic fluorite manufacturers are still unable to start normal operation. The supply of domestic fluorite market will be limited to some extent, so fluorite price will be supported to some extent. However, in the near future, the export volume of domestic fluorite has increased, and the price of imported fluorite is all the same On the low side, the market price of fluorite will continue to be impacted, and the pressure on the price of fluorite in China is huge. Therefore, in 2020, the highest market price of fluorite will not exceed the level of 3400 yuan / ton. Influenced by the strengthening of domestic environmental protection, the lowest price of fluorite will also remain above 2700 yuan / ton in 2020.

In 2019, the PE market trend is fluctuating downward. Among them, LLDPE fell by 20.54%, HDPE by 19.9% and LDPE by 11.76%. On the one hand, supply demand and terminal purchase are weak, on the other hand, the trade environment is complex and changeable, which has a great impact on the domestic spot market. In addition, the demand for polyethylene terminal in 2019 is mainly rigid. In 2019, the capacity of new polyethylene investment devices at home and abroad will exceed 8 million tons / year. According to statistics, the total output of plastic products in January August 2019 will be 60.669 million tons, an increase of 8.1% year on year. Many factors contributed to the ups and downs of the polyethylene market, continuous bottom. Let’s see in detail:

2、 Market analysis

In the first quarter, the PE market overall fell. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches in January, the lack of demand expectation leads to the cautious attitude of the industry, which is mainly based on wait-and-see. With the arrival of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream factories gradually enter the holiday. The lack of demand expectation, the enthusiasm of the downstream market is weakened, the market transaction atmosphere is weakened, and the spot market atmosphere is pessimistic. After the festival, the downstream production resumed, the operating rate increased, and some of them were purchased in the market. However, petrochemicals have accumulated a large amount of inventory, reaching over 1.1 million tons. Petrochemicals has increased its efforts to reduce inventory, and its terminal mentality is cautious. Its enthusiasm for entering the market has obviously turned weak, and the contradiction between supply and demand has increased. However, supported by the easing of Sino US trade war, tension in the Middle East and OPEC production reduction, crude oil rose in a wave and WTI and Brent continued to rise. Crude oil plays a supporting role in polyethylene market. PE market is stable and down.

In the second quarter, PE market fell in shock. At the beginning of the quarter, the overall market rebounded slightly. Affected by the peak demand season of the downstream agricultural film and mulch film in the first quarter, and the continued upward oil price in the beginning of the month, some manufacturers were in the state of maintenance, which was good for the surrounding market, and petrochemical’s strong price mentality was obvious. Under the influence of tax reduction policy, the market is also favorable, the trading atmosphere is more positive, and the price rebounds slightly. But the good times didn’t last long, and then the market fell one after another. After entering the second quarter, as the demand for agricultural film and mulch film gradually decreased, the price support of downstream demand for PE began to weaken. Affected by the Sino US trade war and other aspects, plastic futures began to dive, affecting the market mentality. In addition, the continuous supply of imported goods has led to continuous price reduction. However, due to the poor economic environment and demand, the middlemen and the downstream are mostly purchasing on demand and operating in low warehouse. As a result, PE’s social inventory declined slowly and remained at a historical high level. Some petrochemicals cancelled the price increase sales and lowered the factory price one after another. Although crude oil and futures rose sharply at the end of the month, and merchants tested the high report, the terminal still maintained just in need of replenishment, and the downstream demand was poor. With sufficient supply and high social inventory, suppliers can only gradually reduce the sales price. It is difficult to close a deal at a high price. PE market continued to weaken.

In the third quarter, due to the arrival of the traditional supply period, it should be the peak season of the plastic market, but the peak season effect is not obvious due to multiple negative effects. There are many changes in the downstream operation mode, and the manufacturer’s procurement is more rational. Futures rebounded after the fall at the beginning of the quarter and continued to rise. In addition, crude oil rose sharply, which boosted the spot market more and rose slightly. But the good times are not long. The PE spot market fell again in mid July. The increase of futures positions continued to fluctuate and fell below the 8000 level. The market pressure mentality is obvious, the wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream enterprises increases, and the enthusiasm for entering the market decreases. Futures continued to decline, market trading was weak, the pressure on distributors to ship increased, and the bearish attitude towards the future market increased. The stock of petrochemical enterprises is gradually accumulated, and the ex factory price is lowered one after another. The cost side of the market lost its support and the price fell continuously. In the later stage, although the petrochemical inventory decreased, the speed was slow, the traders were pessimistic, accompanied by low reports, and the delivery was the main thing. The downstream enterprises have weak intention of receiving goods. They purchase on demand and operate with low inventory. The overall trading atmosphere of the spot market continues to be light. It was not until mid September that the market stopped falling and rising. Affected by the rebound of futures bottoming, the industry kept a bullish attitude towards the future market. Petrochemicals has entered a rapid inventory removal cycle, and the factory price has been continuously increased. This is obvious in LDPE, with a large increase of 4.9% in the third quarter.

In the fourth quarter, the polyethylene market is lack of obvious good, and the market performance continues to be weak. Although the beginning of the season is still in the “silver ten” peak season, but the downstream orders are not as good as the previous years, and the raw material prices are more bearish, mainly for just need to get goods, and the market shipping pressure still exists. In October, the stronger oil price and futures, together with the rise of petrochemicals, supported the market to a certain extent, while the spot price was relatively strong, mainly with narrow adjustment. In the middle of the quarter, futures continued to break, striking market confidence was obvious. In some regions of petrochemicals, prices were continuously lowered, cost support was weak, businesses kept and dumped goods, and the three varieties all fell to varying degrees. The enthusiasm of downstream factories to enter the market is still not improved, and they always hold a wait-and-see attitude. The factory’s shipment continues to be poor, and the transaction atmosphere is light. In the later period, with the shock of linear futures rising, merchants’ mentality was better, and more positive reports were made, but the atmosphere of taking goods downstream did not improve, so they continued to suppress the market mentality. The plastic market only rebounded slightly, and then continued to be weak.

3、 Future forecast

In 2019, the overall trend of polyethylene is in a downward trend, until the end of the year, the degree of profit is relatively limited, and the market is still low, weak and short. PE analysts of the business association believe that the supply side pressure of PE is still relatively large, the demand side is still in the pattern of oversupply, and the price of PE is already in the low position. It is expected that the market will continue to be weak in 2020. In addition to the large fluctuations that may occur in the maintenance season and the downstream traditional procurement season, the overall change range will be eased compared with this year.

1、 Market trend of synthetic rubber

In 2019, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was mainly in a fluctuating trend

In 2019, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was mainly in shock trend. Taking August as the watershed, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell in a narrow range before August; after August, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose first and then fell rapidly. In 2019, the high price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is 12900 yuan / ton on September 27, and the low price is 10450 yuan / ton on July 18, which can be roughly divided into six stages

In the first stage, before March 2019, due to the lack of supply in the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market around the lunar new year, traders have a strong willingness to hold prices, with prices above 11700 yuan / ton;

In the second stage, from the beginning of March to the middle of April, with the recovery of petrochemical plants, the supply of goods in the market is sufficient, and the downstream starts are not as expected. The overall performance of the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, and the price drops to 11000 yuan / ton. In the third stage, from the middle of April to the middle of June, on the one hand, the price of raw materials fluctuates up and down, on the other hand, the downstream starts gradually recover, and the price of cis-1,2-polybutadiene rubber is maintained at 11200 yuan/ Small shocks above tons;

In the fourth stage, from the middle of June to the end of July, the supervision of environmental protection became more strict, the operating rate of downstream tire and product factories declined, and the price of raw material butadiene fell, the contradiction between upstream and downstream supply and demand became larger, and the price of cis-1,5-polybutadiene rubber fell all the way to around 10500 yuan / ton;

In the fifth stage, from the end of July to the middle of November, under the pressure of the rising cost of crude oil and butadiene in the early stage, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose sharply to 12900 yuan / ton along the way. Then, with the collapse of cost and the continuous lack of demand, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell sharply to 10725 yuan / ton along the way, forming a roller coaster trend of rapid rise and fall;

In the sixth stage, from the middle of November to the end of the year, on the one hand, the price of natural rubber rose, which led to the bullish atmosphere of synthetic rubber; on the other hand, the stock of market traders was low, with strong willingness to stand up, and the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose slightly.

Overall, in 2019, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose sharply and fell sharply in the third quarter, except for the impact of unexpected events. In the whole year, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was basically in a weak shock situation affected by weak demand.

In 2019, the styrene butadiene rubber market fell first and then rose, with the overall year-end slightly down 2.5% compared with the beginning of the year.

In the first seven months of 2019, the domestic price of SBR declined all the way, from 12000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 10112 yuan / ton, the lowest point in July. The main reasons are as follows:

First of all, the raw material butadiene fell all the way in the first half of the year, and the cost of SBR was under pressure. According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic butadiene price in the first half of the year dropped from 9836 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 7812 yuan / ton at the end of April. Secondly, the cost of raw materials has been greatly reduced, the styrene butadiene production enterprises have high operating rate driven by profits, the market supply is sufficient, and the price of styrene butadiene rubber has been suppressed. Finally, at the beginning of the year, the start-up of downstream enterprises recovered slowly. In April and may, they encountered policies such as limited production and power supply and strict environmental protection inspection. The start-up rate of downstream tire factories continued to decline. In the first half of the year, the downstream procurement continued to be weak, which was a big negative for SBR.

From the beginning of August to the end of December, the price of domestic SBR rose in shock, from 10400 yuan / ton at the beginning of August to 11700 yuan / ton at the end of the year. On the one hand, from the beginning of August to the beginning of November, styrene butadiene rubber rose sharply and fell under the influence of cost. In the early stage, due to the black swan incident of crude oil and the decline of butadiene start-up, the price of crude oil and raw material butadiene went up all the way, and the cost side drove the rise of SBR; in the later stage, with the cost side falling, the price of SBR went down. On the other hand, in the downstream, especially in the tire factory, the operating rate in the second half of the year was relatively high, and the demand for rubber was relatively strong, which to some extent supported the rubber price.

2、 Price trend of raw materials

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of butadiene in 2019 fluctuated and adjusted, falling in the first half of the year as a whole, rising and falling in the second half of the year. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene dropped from 9836 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to around 7812 yuan / ton at the end of April. After that, with the increase of the outer price and the maintenance of the manufacturer’s devices, the supply of butadiene decreased, and the price gradually rose to August. In September and October, affected by the “black swan” incident of crude oil, the price quickly rose to the annual peak of 11845 yuan / ton. After that, on the one hand, the hype was released, on the other hand, the high price led to the purchase list, and then gradually fell back to the end of the year near 8300 yuan / ton. As a whole, the price trend of raw material butadiene basically keeps pace with that of synthetic rubber, and the influence of industrial chain is relatively close.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of styrene will fluctuate and adjust in 2019, with the overall price rising first and then falling. As of December 20, the average price of styrene quoted by styrene enterprises is 7450.00 yuan / ton, which is 8066.67 yuan / ton compared with that of styrene quoted at the beginning of 2019 (January 1), a sharp drop, a drop of 7.64%, and a drop of 9.51% compared with that of the same period last year. Generally speaking, 2019 is a year of strong supply and demand of styrene. Although the price has declined all the way compared with 2018, the industry profit of styrene is still good throughout the year, and the industry cash flow continuity is good.

3、 Downstream tire demand support

As of November 2019, the output of domestic rubber tires was 72.467 million, up 3.3% year on year; from January to November, the output of domestic rubber tires was 767.609 million, up 2.2% year on year. Overall, the year-on-year growth rate of output in the first half of the year was negative, and the year-on-year growth rate of output in the second half of the year gradually picked up to more than 2%. From the point of view of the support of demand for synthetic rubber, the support in the first half of the year was weak, while the support in the second half of the year was slightly strong.

4、 Future forecast

In 2020, there are three trends of synthetic rubber: first, the impact of Sino US trade friction. At present, the Sino US trade friction shows signs of easing, which is relatively favorable for the later tire and other rubber products exports. However, due to the possibility of repetition in the later stage, there is still a certain degree of negative impact on the start-up and consumption of downstream industries of synthetic rubber next year; second, raw materials butadiene, styrene and upstream crude oil Trend impact: in 2010, when the raw material market is not limited to production or maintenance, the price is basically in the range of shocks, which also affects the price of synthetic rubber within the range; 3. The impact of the start-up of synthetic rubber production enterprises, on the one hand, in recent two years, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber production has been surplus, and the overall unit operation rate is lower than 60% for a long time under the control of low demand. On the other hand, the production capacity of cis-1.6 million tons of butadiene rubber is almost surplus. At present, only Zhenjiang Qimei 40000 tons / year and Shandong Shengxing device have production plans. However, due to the fact that it is still in the early stage of planning, it is unlikely to be put into production in the next two years. It is expected that the production capacity of synthetic rubber will be basically stable in the later stage, and the operating rate depends on the market supply pressure and profit size.

1. Price analysis in the first half of 2019, the titanium dioxide price market experienced five stages: up and down, up and down. In the middle of the year, compared with the beginning of the year, the overall price declined. Due to different situations, the decline range was about 1600 yuan / ton. By the end of 2019, the factory price of China rutile titanium dioxide with tax was 13500-15200 yuan / ton, and the factory price of anatase titanium dioxide with tax was 11500-12800 yuan / ton. Among them, the market price of longmang Bailian was announced to rise four times in total on February 12, March 7, August 15 and September 3, respectively, and the decline time was in January, July and November. The first stage of decline: in January 2019, the market continues to decline at the end of 2018. Due to the market going into the off-season and approaching the Spring Festival, most enterprises in the north have stopped production. After the price has been greatly reduced, the market price is low, and some titanium dioxide manufacturers have also moved forward for maintenance. In addition, before the Spring Festival, the stock manufacturers go to stock more. In late January, longmang Baili Announced the order, on January 31, Venator announced that the price of titanium dioxide (titanium dioxide) sold in the United States and Canada increased by 0.07 USD / pound on February 1, which boosted the market, and the market price stopped falling.

The second stage of rising: entering February to March, the market price rose twice. On February 12, longmang billiard announced that based on the domestic market situation, the price of domestic customers will be increased by 500 yuan / ton, and the price of international customers will be increased by 100 dollars / ton. Then the market enterprises announced the increase in succession, with the range of 500-800 yuan / ton; on March 7, all kinds of domestic customers continued to increase 500 yuan / ton, all kinds of international customers increased 100 dollars / ton, and some enterprises followed the increase in succession. During the two rounds of price increase from February to March, some enterprises increased once, some enterprises increased twice, and the total increase of longmang was 1000 yuan / ton. After the Spring Festival, the price increase is mainly due to the large number of market maintenance enterprises, the reduction of titanium dioxide supply, the gradual recovery of downstream market after the Spring Festival, and the upward market demand. However, just after the Spring Festival, the downstream construction has not fully recovered, and the enterprises mostly execute the old orders. The price increase in early March mainly tamps the price increase in February. With the recovery of market demand and the increase of raw material prices, the actual price in March is also the same Up.

The third stage of decline: the market rose and fell in April, and continued to decline from May to July. Among them, the price of foreign giants rose due to market demand and other factors. CITIC titanium announced that the domestic price was increased by 500 yuan / ton. In April, due to the tax rate adjustment, some enterprises in the market made a profit to the downstream. In March, the enterprises received more orders, and the order situation slowed down in April. Since the end of March, the recent domestic chemical plant safety accidents occurred frequently, the downstream enterprises were greatly affected, and the pressure of titanium dioxide shipment increased. With the market entering the slack season, the market price continued to decline from May to July. The fourth stage is the rising stage: from August to October, the market price is rising steadily. At the beginning of August, longmang issued the price adjustment letter. From August 15, the market price of titanium dioxide was increased by 500 yuan / ton, and then more than 20 enterprises in the market issued the price increase information, ranging from 500-800 yuan / ton. On September 3, longmang Bailian sent a letter again to increase the price, and then other enterprises in the market kept up. The market price rise is mainly due to the low market price and the decline of environmental protection market operating rate, the low price and the tight inventory of enterprises. In the peak season, the market price is rising steadily. In September, the price increase was unsuccessful. In October, the price of some enterprises continued to rise, including the price of international titanium dioxide. The fifth stage of decline: at the beginning of November, longmang Bailian made a large profit to the downstream, and then the market enterprises made different adjustments. After the price reduction, due to the fact that the stock companies in the downstream end of the year have more inventory and the limited production of the enterprises, some enterprises are short of inventory. At the end of November and the beginning of December, the prices of some enterprises have increased, and the market prices have stabilized. In 2019, the overall weakness of China’s titanium dioxide market will decline. In 2020, the new capacity of titanium dioxide market will be released, and the shortage of raw materials will continue. In 2020, the titanium dioxide market will still face great pressure.

2. Import and export analysis according to the statistics of customs data, the total amount of titanium dioxide imported by China from January to October 2019 was 135600 tons, 177100 tons compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year decline of 23.43%; the annual import volume is expected to be more than 160000 tons, a decrease of about 40000 tons compared with last year. The import volume of titanium dioxide in China has declined significantly, mainly due to the continuous improvement of the quality of domestic sulfuric acid titanium dioxide and the high price abroad, the poor performance of domestic demand, and the continuous release of new production capacity of China’s Chlorinated titanium dioxide, and the gradual decrease of high-end imported titanium dioxide.

According to the statistics of customs data, the total amount of titanium dioxide exported by China from January to October 2019 was 820800 tons, an increase of 5.08% over the previous year. The export volume is expected to rise steadily. It is estimated that the annual export volume is about 960000 tons, and the top export enterprises are still longmang Bailian, CNNC titanium dioxide, Shandong Jinhai, etc. Due to the poor economic situation, the export price has declined. Affected by the Sino US trade war, the amount of titanium dioxide exported to the United States has decreased significantly. As the economic development of India, Brazil and other developing countries continues to speed up, the demand for titanium dioxide products has increased and become the main force of demand growth.

From January to October, the average import price was 3018.96 USD / ton, down 1.67% from 3070.18 last year. The average export price was 2223.34 USD / ton, down 12.75% from 2548.30 USD / ton last year.

3. Production analysis according to the statistics of Tu Duoduo, the new capacity of China’s titanium dioxide in 2019 is about 3.92 million tons, and the output of China’s titanium dioxide in January November 2019 is 2.8584 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 140000 tons, an increase of 5.27%. The annual output is expected to be 3.12 million tons.

In 2019, new titanium dioxide enterprises include Yibin Tianyuan, Guizhou Shengwei Fuquan and Guangxi Xilong chemical industry. In 2019, with the release of production capacity of Dongfang titanium industry in Gansu Province, the production of nuclear titanium dioxide increased more than last year; the release of 200000 tons of new production capacity of Bll and the production of Tianyuan chlorination process, the total production of chlorination process in January November was 173600 tons, with a growth rate of 25.6%, accounting for 6% of the total domestic production, with an increase of about 40000 tons compared with last year. In 2020, with the release of new capacity and the production of new capacity, it is estimated that the output of titanium dioxide will increase by nearly 300000 tons in 2020, which is under great pressure of market competition. At present, there are still projects under construction and expansion in the market. The output of titanium dioxide ranks Sichuan, Shandong and Anhui, accounting for 22%, 17% and 12% of the total domestic output respectively.

At present, there are 12 enterprises with a production capacity of over 100000 tons in China, accounting for 73% of the total domestic production capacity, 13% of which have a production capacity of less than 50000 tons. There are still many small production capacity, and the concentration of production capacity still needs to be improved.

1. Cangzhou Dahua builds TDI “the first in the world” and becomes the leader of new chemical material industry in China

On March 12, the launching ceremony of the 200000 ton PC project of Cangzhou Dahua was held in the port economic and Technological Development Zone, Bohai new area, Cangzhou.

Cangzhou Dahua is the leading enterprise of Cangzhou Chemical Industry. It has successively completed and put into operation 50000 tons, 70000 tons TDI, 135000 tons nitric acid, 160000 tons caustic soda and other projects in Cangzhou Bohai new area. The 200000 t / a PC project is not only essential for the transformation and development of Cangzhou Dahua, but also can drive related industries and promote the local economic development of Cangzhou Bohai new area. In the future, Cangzhou Dahua Group will strengthen its strategic emerging industries, build a high-end industrial system, successively build 850000 T / a TDI, 200000 t / a bisphenol A, 400000 T / a MDI, 300000 t / a nitric acid and other projects, build a green chemical new material industrial park with tdi-pc-mdi industry as the core, build TDI “the first in the world” and become a leader in domestic chemical new material industry.

2. BASF’s new integrated production base in Guangdong with a total investment of 10 billion US dollars was officially launched!

On November 22, the project of Guangdong new integrated production base (Verbund), with a total investment of 10 billion US dollars, was officially launched in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province, and the first batch of units began to be built. This is an important milestone since the project was announced in July 2018. The first batch of units of the project will produce engineering plastics and thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU), so as to meet the customer demand of multiple growth industries in South China and the whole Asian market.

3. 925 million yuan! Wanhua chemical acquires MDI / TDI technology company of Sweden

On July 30, Wanhua announced that Wanhua chemical (Hungary) Holding Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned overseas subsidiary of the company, acquired 100% of the equity of Sweden International Chemical Co., Ltd. held by Cornell and Euramerican Energy Technology Co., Ltd., the equity delivery has been completed, and the total acquisition amount is about 925445229 yuan. This acquisition is conditional. Cornell is required to adjust the equity structure of Fujian Cornell Polyurethane Co., Ltd. to achieve the final shareholding ratio of 80% held by Wanhua chemical and 20% held by Cornell

4. Cangzhou Dahua: TDI sold 900 million in the first half of the year! Net profit fell by 95.9% year on year!

Cangzhou Dahua disclosed China Daily on August 29, 2019. In the first half of 2019, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 1.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 55.9%; a net profit attributable to the parent company of 31.505 million, a year-on-year decrease of 95.9%; and a per share income of 0.08 yuan. During the reporting period, the company’s gross profit rate was 10.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 43.4%, and its net interest rate was 1.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 32.8%.

5. Wanhua chemical acquires 51% equity of Fujian kangnair

On August 25, 2019, the buyer and the seller signed an equity transfer agreement. Cornell chemical transferred 51% of its shares in the target company to Wanhua chemical at the price of RMB 0. The two parties completed the equity delivery within 30 working days from the date of signing the agreement. On the date of signing the agreement, the paid in capital contribution of each shareholder of Fujian kangnair is zero yuan, and the book net asset is zero yuan.

6. BASF TDI plant won the American Chemical Council responsibility Care Award

The American Chemical Council (ACC) recognized BASF’s TDI plant in gasma, Louisiana, and awarded the 2019 Responsible Care Award for its waste minimization and recycling.

The TDI plant team and the company’s environmental, health and safety (EHS) experts worked together to give nickel catalysts, which were difficult to recover, a chance to reuse. Geert Janssens, vice president, isocyanate business, North American monomer division, said: “the award is designed to recognize BASF’s commitment to sustainable development and our participation in waste reduction. We create chemistry by making full use of existing resources. Our efforts at the gasma plant are a case in point. ”

Facing the situation of increasing PP capacity, the growth of domestic PP downstream demand worries the market. The diversification of domestic PP raw materials makes the market competition pattern upgrade again. Downstream demand stratification changes, general-purpose products, especially plastic products profit shrinking, and high-end plastic products still have strong demand potential due to demand!

1、 Analysis on the demand change of plastic products

According to the analysis of the output data of plastic products in 2010-2020, the growth rate of domestic plastic products shows a gradual slowdown trend, especially after experiencing the high level in 2014, the overall growth rate of plastic products shows a fluctuating downward trend. It is analyzed that the rapid decline of plastic products is mainly due to the strict inspection of domestic environmental protection and the reduction of processing enterprises under the influence of Sino US trade war. After 2019, the growth rate of plastic products slowed down again, mainly due to the sluggish global economic growth and the impact of domestic economic environment on the order follow-up of downstream products enterprises, resulting in the relative reduction of the overall output of plastic products.

2、 Upgrading of diversified competition pattern of raw materials

According to the comparative analysis of PP raw material capacity in 2016-2019, the coal to olefin capacity has the fastest growth, from 3.36 million tons in 2016 to 6.33 million tons in 2019, an increase of 2.97 million tons. Among them, coal to olefin capacity accounted for 18% in 2016, and coal to olefin capacity accounted for 26% in 2019, accounting for an increase of 8%. Its growth rate was surprising. In addition, PDH series are also fast-growing products. Due to the obvious cost advantage of propane dehydrogenation products, the later expansion products will also present new breakthroughs. With the diversification of raw materials, the market competition pressure will be gradually upgraded.

3、 Decreasing import dependence

In 2019, the import dependence of PP showed a weak fluctuating situation. The total import from January to October 2019 was 20.9919 million, 7.16% higher than that from January to October 2018 (1958.87 million). Due to the strict environmental protection inspection in China, after the strict prohibition on the import of waste plastics, the domestic demand for PP raw materials is increased correspondingly, and some imported resources are increased correspondingly, so as to meet the domestic demand. However, the overall import dependence of PP shows a gradual downward trend. At present, the average import dependence in 2019 is 19.63%. It can be seen that with the continuous stimulation of domestic production capacity, some domestic materials gradually replace the imported products, and the import dependence also decreases accordingly.

4、 Domestic supply and demand game import dependence still exists

Facing the rapid expansion of domestic PP capacity, the imbalance between market supply and demand gradually highlights. Although domestic general-purpose products have gradually replaced imported products, the market demand for domestic medium and high-end products is still strong, especially the gradual opening of domestic infrastructure and two child policy, the market demand potential in anti impact products and medical industry is huge, so the demand for imported medium and high-end products still has a large development space.

26.53% yuan / ton

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of soda ash in 2019 was significantly reduced, down 26.53% for the whole year. On January 1, the average price in the domestic market was 2123.33 yuan / ton, the highest unit price in the whole year. On December 24, the average price in the domestic market was 1560.00 yuan / ton, which was also the lowest unit price in the whole year.

19 million 390 thousand tons

According to the data from the National Bureau of statistics and the customs, from January to September 2019, China’s apparent consumption of soda ash totaled 19.39 million tons, and from January to September 2018, China’s apparent consumption of soda ash totaled 18.15 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.86%.

61080.7 tons

According to customs statistics, in October 2019, China’s import volume of soda ash was 6461.97 tons, and the cumulative import volume was 61080.7 tons.

1179180.27 tons

According to the statistics of the customs, in October 2019, the export volume of China’s soda ash was 129411.24 tons, and the cumulative export volume was 1179180.27 tons, up 0.7% year-on-year, with relatively stable export.

87.06%

According to the survey data, the overall operating rate of soda ash industry in November was about 87.06%, while that in the same period of 2018 was only 81.56%, up 5.5 percentage points year on year.

1561 yuan / ton

On December 6, the soda ash futures were listed, and on the first day of sa2005, the futures price rose. On that day, the session price closed at 1561, up + 2.03%; volume was 318030, position was 38922, and basis was + 139.

33 million 140 thousand tons

According to statistics, the total capacity of soda ash in 2019 is 33.14 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons, or 3.62%, compared with 2018. The domestic production capacity is 31.69 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 95.61%.