Price trend:

According to the data from the bulk list of business associations, in late July, the domestic ABS market declined in a narrow range, and some spot prices in the market decreased. As of July 28, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 12900.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.64% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

In terms of styrene upstream of ABS, according to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the average offer of sample enterprises on Friday, July 28 was 5316.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.54% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. According to reports, the current styrene inventory is still at a high level, and the short-term oversupply situation has not changed. In addition, the domestic styrene production line restarted more this month, and the risk of accumulation of stocks on the site affected the mentality of merchants. Downstream factories are still not enthusiastic about taking delivery of goods, and high price materials are under great pressure. It is expected that styrene will be mainly processed by shock. The market demand should pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

ABS upstream acrylonitrile, the recent domestic market continues to be weak, the market atmosphere is low. At the beginning of the month, it was reported that the operating rate of production enterprises was further improved, and the supply pressure in the market was further increased. At present, the acrylonitrile production plant reduces the load in order to divert the contradiction between supply and demand. Downstream just need to buy mainly, stock operation carefully. There is resistance in the shipment of merchants, and the actual transaction is less. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be weak.

According to the monitoring price of business agency, as of July 28, the average price of domestic butadiene market was about 4234.44 yuan / ton, which was 22.90% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month. Recently, there is a certain demand for butadiene downstream, and the northern market is rising. Merchants in East China are generally reluctant to sell at low prices, and the offer rises. Short term supply side and external disk news support, high price goods flooded the market, but the future stock supply is expected to increase, downstream stock preparation is more cautious, and the transaction is general. At present, it is difficult to find low-cost goods in the market, and the market offer may remain relatively strong due to the supplier LED market. It is expected that butadiene will rise in price in the near future

In recent years, ABS domestic market has been stable and falling. Although there is a rigid demand for support in the downstream in the first half of the month, the domestic ABS petrochemical plant is operating at almost full capacity. Although the existing inventory is at a low level, the on-site spot circulation began to increase. In addition, near the end of the month, businesses actively let profits and orders to complete the task, and the downstream factory stock operation turned to be cautious, and the demand was flat, resulting in a narrow range of decline in many brands.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe that: in late July, the ABS market has fallen steadily, and the prices of various brands have been reduced in a narrow range. Cost side of the upstream three material recent trend is not the same, the cost side support is general. At present, ABS spot supply began to increase, downstream of high price ABS goods attitude is cautious, take goods just need to go single. At present, businesses are actively reducing the price to complete the task, and there is room for profit. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to narrow down in the near future.

Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the cobalt price rose in July, and the cobalt market rose sharply since last week, and the cobalt price rose sharply for two consecutive trading days this week. As of July 28, the average price of cobalt was 269666.66 yuan / ton, up 9.25% from 246833.33 yuan / ton on July 20, and 7.29% higher than the average price of 251333.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week (July 26). The price of cobalt is soaring, and the cobalt market is booming again.

Non ferrous metal plate index

According to the statistics of business agency index, the nonferrous metal plate has been rising slowly since April. Since July, the nonferrous metal plate has risen in a straight line, and the market performance of the nonferrous metal plate is strong. Spot market nonferrous plate performance “positive heat”, good for cobalt market.

Capital flow of nonferrous metals

Stock market non ferrous metal plate up and down

Plate name: Rise and fall range, turnover rate, number of winners and losers

Non ferrous metals: 1.96% 3.20% 56.16

According to the statistics of capital flow in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, it can be seen that in recent 10 days, the capital flow of non-ferrous metal plate was active, the market hot money flow stimulated the cobalt market greatly, and the market bullish mentality was prominent. The non-ferrous plate of the stock market increased significantly, and the turnover was frequent, and the heat of the non-ferrous plate in the stock market was booming.

European new energy vehicle policy stimulates sales

During the epidemic period, European countries introduced economic stimulus policies for electric vehicles. In May, France announced an 8 billion automobile industry support plan to increase the amount of subsidy for bicycles; in June, Germany launched an economic stimulus plan of 130 billion yuan to increase the amount of subsidy for bicycles again; Greece and Spain issued subsidy plans for new energy vehicles; and in July, the Netherlands issued a subsidy plan for electric vehicles, which will last until 2025. Affected by policy stimulus, European sales doubled year on year in June, and monthly sales exceeded the pre epidemic level. In June, 81000 new energy vehicles were registered in 10 European countries, with a year-on-year increase of 96%. Among them, the sales of electric vehicles in Germany in June was 19000, with a year-on-year increase of 115% and a month on month increase of 51%; in France, 21000 vehicles were sold in June, with a year-on-year increase of 259% and a month on month rise of 193%; in June, the sales volume of 14000 vehicles in Britain increased by 261% year-on-year and 331% month on month. The sales of new energy vehicles increased greatly, which stimulated the cobalt market. Cobalt market rising momentum increased.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that after the epidemic, with the recovery of the domestic economic environment, the production and sales of new energy vehicles and mobile phones in China have gradually recovered; while in the international market, in order to stimulate the economy, many governments have introduced economic stimulus policies. European markets are stimulated by policies, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased greatly, which is good for the future market of cobalt market. Recently, the non-ferrous metal trading in the stock market has been active, and the non-ferrous plate in the spot market has increased significantly. Hot money from the market has entered the non-ferrous metal market. The bullish mentality of the non-ferrous plate is highlighted. As a small metal product, cobalt is easy to be concerned by hot money, which sets off a new wave of investment boom. Under the stimulation of good news, the cobalt price may hit a short-term peak, but the overall supply and demand of the cobalt market is not unbalanced. The rising support of the cobalt Market at the supply and demand side is insufficient, and the cobalt price is difficult to impact the 300000 peak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, since July, the terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide has become weak, the rigid demand of caprolactam enterprises has declined, and the price of hydrogen peroxide has not been driven to rise. As of July 27, the average market price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide has fallen below the 1000 yuan mark, which has dropped by 8.97% compared with 1040 yuan / ton in early July.

Let’s specifically analyze the reasons for the sharp drop of hydrogen peroxide in July 2020

At the beginning of July, the hydrogen peroxide market was still supported by the favorable June. Some manufacturers have resumed parking and maintenance, but the market supply has not been fully recovered. The manufacturers still hold up their prices, and the hydrogen peroxide prices are tentatively rising. The average price of mainstream market was 1050 yuan / ton, and the price increased by 0.96%. Then the price of hydrogen peroxide gradually stabilized, and the price continued to operate stably.

In the middle and late July, the operating rate of hydrogen peroxide enterprises increased and the tight market supply situation was eased. The market of terminal caprolactam was dragged down by the market of raw materials, and its own demand was low. The price of terminal caprolactam dropped by more than 7% all the way. Similarly, in the paper industry, after the end of centralized stock, the paper market has been stable. Hydrogen peroxide terminal caprolactam market weakened, hydrogen peroxide price also opened a downward channel, the price continued to fall, the weekly decline was about 50 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market fell below 950 yuan / ton, down nearly 9%.

The company’s name fell on July 27 compared with the beginning of July

Shijiazhuang Baipo Zhengyuan fertilizer Co., Ltd. 900 yuan / ton 180 yuan / ton

Luxi Chemical Group 920 yuan / ton 280 yuan / ton

Anhui Quansheng Chemical Co., Ltd. 1020 yuan / ton 30 yuan / ton

Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co., Ltd. 950 yuan / ton 100 yuan / ton

Hangzhou Mingxin hydrogen peroxide Co., Ltd. 1100 yuan / ton unchanged

Hydrogen peroxide analysts believe that: terminal caprolactam market downturn, demand pressure, the paper market has gone up, in the short term, hydrogen peroxide market has little room to rise, or will continue to fall.

Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on July 24 was 31.32, unchanged with yesterday, 68.68% lower than 100.00 (2011-09-01), and 14.81% higher than 27.28, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: price trend of natural rubber mainstream from January to July 2020

From the beginning of January to June 2020, the overall market of natural rubber showed a downward trend and then a small upward trend. The price of natural rubber at the end of March and the beginning of April was a periodic bottom. In May, the Tianjiao Jedi rebounded and fluctuated upward. In June, it continued the upward trend of last month and first rose to the recent highest point. Then, due to insufficient demand support, the price turned downward, and then there was a certain degree of shock rebound. The current month closed About ten thousand yuan. According to the data of natural rubber (bid 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, in July, the mainstream quotation of Baodao whole milk market was about 10089 yuan / ton on the 1st day and 10560 yuan / ton on the 24th, up 4.67% so far this month. Among them, the price of 10560 yuan / ton on the 16th and 24th was the highest price so far this month, and the 10089 yuan / ton on the 1st day was the lowest price of this month, with the largest earthquake amplitude of 4.67%.

Factor analysis:

First, the production of new glue. 2020 is a special year. In previous years, it should be a time when a large number of new gum have been put on the market. However, this year, affected by weather disasters, diseases and insect pests, especially the epidemic situation, the production of natural rubber in China has to be delayed from January to February. However, the actual production is very small. At present, China’s domestic area has entered the rainy season, and the production of blister glue and new rubber is unlikely to be very large. In Xishuangbanna, this year’s total latex was almost never obtained. The second standard glue was in short supply in various years, and other brands of glue were often out of stock. In addition, the import index was not released, and the shortage of local supply in southern production areas continued for a long time. The epidemic prevention and control of rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia has achieved certain results, and some economic activities have recovered. In July, the weather in Southeast Asia was better, and the output of natural rubber increased month on month, which was lower than that of last year, but the overall tapping work was slow. Since the middle and late June, the rainfall in Thailand’s main production areas has decreased, and the output of raw materials has gradually increased, but the output is lower than that of the same period last year, the purchase price of glue has been lowered, the overall supply of raw materials is tight, the profit of rubber processing is relatively thin, and the shipping date of some standard rubber is delayed. Malaysia’s main production areas have good weather and normal tapping, and the output of raw materials has increased gradually, but the current production is lower than that in the same period of previous years. As the world’s largest latex glove producer, the demand for raw materials has increased significantly due to the epidemic situation. Indonesia’s main production area is in the peak season, but due to the closure of domestic and foreign tire and automobile manufacturing enterprises, many rubber processing plants are facing a sharp reduction in order pressure, which seriously affects the local tapping enthusiasm. Vietnam’s main production area is in the rainy season, but it has little impact on the overall output. The supply is basically normal, but the output is definitely lower than that in the same period in the past. At present, the supply of 3L rubber is increasing, but the inventory is still at a low level, which forms a certain support for the rubber price. The supply of Cambodia’s production areas is normal, but due to the strict control of border trade, the number of raw materials exported to Vietnam has decreased significantly.

Second, import and export. China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 534000 tons in June 2020, up 21% year-on-year, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 14. From January to June 2020, China imported a total of 3.313 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 1.9% compared with 3.075 million tons in the same period of 2019. According to the latest data released by Vietnam customs, the total rubber export volume of Vietnam in June 2020 was 136400 tons, up 82.11% month on month and 11.08% year on year; from January to June 2020, the total rubber export volume of Vietnam was 481600 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 21.81%. In June, the export volume to China was 109000 tons, with a month on month increase of 82.92% and a year-on-year increase of 59.48%; from January to June 2020, the total export volume to China was 339800 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.54%. In June, Vietnam rubber imports totaled 72200 tons, up 22.58% month on month. The above two groups of data show that China’s imports of natural rubber increased significantly in June, the production demand of enterprises was more active than in the earlier stage, and the market confidence was improved to a certain extent.

Third, inventory. As of the 24th, warehouse receipts and futures inventories of the exchange were 237846 tons and 230140 tons, respectively, down 5041 tons and 970 tons from last week. It is reported that the dominant inventory of Qingdao and Shanghai ports and the hidden inventory of production and marketing areas are about 1.1 million tons. It is estimated that the stock of natural rubber in China will reach about 1.5 million tons. The inventory of natural rubber in East China is still high. This is in sharp contrast to the shortage of goods in Yunnan.

Fourth, downstream demand. On July 16, the operating rate of all steel tire enterprises was 68.83%, up 0.53% from the previous week; the operating rate of semi steel tire enterprises was 64.74%, up 0.59% from the previous week. The overseas epidemic situation is repeated, and the recovery of tire export orders is slow, and the uncertainty is large in the later stage. It is reported that at present, the domestic market demand is occupied by the first-line tire brand promotion. The inventory of some manufacturers in Shandong Province has increased. With the advent of the rainy season, the production and sales of tire manufacturers are impacted, and the operating rate of the tire industry is expected to return. In addition, some tire enterprises usually arrange equipment maintenance in the hot season of July and August, and it is expected that the operating rate of the tire industry will decline slightly in the future. From the perspective of foreign markets, in the first half of 2020, the demand for new cars in European passenger car market will shrink by 39.5% to 5101669 units. Among the five major markets, Spain had the largest decline of 50.9%; Germany had the smallest decline of 34.5%; Italy, the United Kingdom and France had 46.1%, 48.5% and 38.6% respectively. Globally, with the lifting of the epidemic blockade and the restart of economic activities, automobile sales slowly recover. However, the China Automobile Industry Association predicts that China’s automobile sales will fall by 10% – 20% this year. According to the prediction of Bloomberg intelligence, the automobile sales in Europe are expected to drop by 20% this year. Tire demand is worrying.

Fifth, regional differences. As early as the middle of May, the situation of shortage of natural rubber in Yunnan, especially in Banna, began to appear in the middle of May. All kinds of local rubber were in short supply, which led to the continuous firmness of rubber price. According to local traders, the delay in listing of new rubber this year and the fact that some import indexes have not been released in previous years have resulted in the shortage of local supply. At the end of last month and in the middle of this month, the Many articles have analyzed the regional differences of domestic natural rubber market in detail. As in July, this situation still exists, resulting in the regional transmission of goods. The shortage of goods in Banna is still severe. Local traders say that at present, the local tapping volume is not large, and the supply is short, especially the second standard rubber. The new standard second rubber in 2020 has never been obtained, and the original plan of large-scale listing of new rubber has not been realized.

Sixth, trade friction. On June 12, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the preliminary findings of the fourth review on anti-dumping of passenger car and light truck tires against China. Two compulsory responding enterprises obtained 76.46% of the dumping duty rate for refusing to participate in the investigation, and seven enterprises received zero tax rate. On the 26th and 27th of last month, the Ministry of Commerce and industry of India issued a series of announcements to initiate anti-dumping investigations on China’s nitrile rubber and rubber additive px-13. Recently, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) protested against the US tire anti-dumping investigation. FTI believes that the United States will seriously affect the Thai industry. Affected by the epidemic situation, Thai industry showed a shrinking trend in the first half of the year. Kriangli, chairman of the FTI, said that the investigation was affected by Sino US trade relations. In recent years, Thailand has continuously attracted foreign investment and established export bases for tire, food and other products. At present, five Chinese tire companies have invested in Thailand, and their main business is tire export. “The United States is observing this phenomenon and trying to set up trade barriers against Chinese products.” Kriangri said that the Thai government should closely monitor the situation and take measures to deal with the US anti-dumping charges. Previously, the United States determined that Thailand’s tire dumping margin was 106% – 218%. The U.S. Department of Commerce will issue the final ruling on November 9, saying that if Thai enterprises are found to have dumping practices, the United States will raise tariffs on related products. The FTI said the investigation opened on July 26 and Thailand would try to clarify the charges. The international economic situation is not smooth, which has a serious impact on the circulation of rubber products.

As for the future market, the analysis of the business agency believes that the growth of new rubber in the production area is slow, the recovery of foreign orders is unpredictable, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still prominent under the situation of high inventory and uncertain demand, and the possibility of a substantial price rise is small. But after all, the price of natural rubber has been at a low level for a long time, and the decline rate will not be great; the shortage of goods in Yunnan, especially in Banna, still supports the price, especially the local price. Under the comprehensive effect, maintain the view that the future market of natural rubber fluctuates slightly until a large number of new gum are listed.

Magnesium market trend

On July 27, 2020, the price of magnesium ingot (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China will run smoothly, with the overall range of 12800-13100 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu district is 12800-13000 yuan / ton; Taiyuan is 12900-13000 yuan / ton; Wenxi district is 13000-13100 yuan / ton; Ningxia is 12800-12950 yuan / ton.

The magnesium ingot is the original magnesium ingot of national standard (GB / t3499-2011); it is not pickled, has no wooden pallet and does not pay the acceptance price, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic market on the 27th was 12933.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.72% compared with the average price of 13433.33 yuan / ton in the market at the beginning of July (7.1).

After the price tends to be stable, the market should maintain stable operation

After the price of magnesium ingot fell in July, it began to stabilize recently. It is learned that at present, there is not much trading in the market. Domestic downstream manufacturers have relatively sufficient stock in the early stage. At present, they basically purchase on demand and have little willingness to stock up in large quantities. Due to the influence of cost factors, magnesium ingot manufacturers are willing to reduce the price and promote sales, and the willingness to stop production and repair is relatively higher, and the market supply-demand game tends to be stable. It is expected that some factories will shut down for maintenance in the later stage, and the magnesium price at the supply side will be favorable to some extent. However, based on the reality of weak demand, it is expected that the weak and stable operation will be given priority to in the later stage, and the change of downstream purchasing rhythm will be focused in the later stage.

On July 23, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, with the settlement price of the main contract at $41.07/barrel, down $0.83. The price of Brent crude oil futures market fell, with the settlement price of main contracts falling by $0.99 to $43.31/barrel, while oil price fell by about $1. The market was worried about whether the US economic stimulus package could be reached. In addition, the number of jobless claims increased at the beginning of last week, the number of superimposed epidemic cases increased sharply, and concerns about future fuel demand increased.

The U.S. stock market fell sharply on Thursday, with the S & P 500 index falling by more than 1%, stopping from the previous four days of continuous gains and the largest one-day decline since June 26. The increase in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits announced by the U.S. Department of labor at the beginning of last week was the fuse for the decline of the stock market, and the fundamental reason was that the increasingly serious epidemic situation had brought a heavy blow to the economy. At the macro level, the bad news spread to the oil market, and the oil price fell by about 2%.

Prior to that, on Tuesday and Wednesday, the increase of crude oil inventory in the week of 17 announced by API and EIA of the United States both exceeded expectations. The negative atmosphere has gradually enveloped the national oil market, but the price fluctuation is not big, which is mainly covered by the good news of the basic landing of EU recovery fund and breakthrough in vaccine. However, the market is generally worried about whether the US economic stimulus plan can be reached in Congress. This has cast a shadow on the current complex oil market. Oil prices also closed lower amid uncertainty.

At present, the factors restricting crude oil to continue to rise are still demand concerns. According to the data of the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), the average crude oil processing capacity of US refineries last week was 14.2 million barrels / day, which was lower than 14.4 million barrels / day two weeks ago. Due to the decline in fuel demand, US refiners have cut crude oil processing capacity for the second consecutive week. Since the beginning of May, fuel demand has continued to grow strongly. At present, the signs of slowing down indicate that the market has changed. The U.S. epidemic is becoming more and more serious, with a surge of new cases in some states, the restart of social isolation measures, and the reduction of road traffic volume, resulting in a weak gasoline consumption. In addition, aviation kerosene demand also decreased significantly. According to relevant data, in the week of 17, distillate oil supply was 20% lower than the average level of the previous five years, and aviation fuel supply was 38% lower than the five-year average level.

On the whole, the business club believes that under the background of the rising epidemic situation, it may be difficult for the oil market to get out of the independent upward market. There are too many uncertain factors in the market. At present, under the premise of strict production reduction and supply reduction in oil producing countries, the international oil market is basically in the stage of supply and demand rebalancing. At present, the oil price is also stuck at the $40 level. It is expected that this balance will not be broken in the near future, and the oil price will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic spandex market has been declining in the past three months. As of July 23, the average price of spandex 40d specification was 31100 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.61%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.12%.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang 35000-36000 34000-35000 28000-28500

Shandong 36000-37000 34500-35500 28500-29000

Fujian 37000-38000 34500-35500 28500-29000

Jiangsu 35000-36000 34000-35000 29000-31200

At present, the spandex industry is about 80% of the start-up. The supply of the factory is abundant. There is some resistance to the factory’s shipment. In addition, the inventory in the early stage is overstocked, and some manufacturers make a bargain at a low price. At present, the reference for 20d spandex mainstream negotiation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is 35000-36000 yuan / ton; for 30d spandex, it is 34000-35000 yuan / ton; for 40d spandex, it is 28500-29500 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is discussed in detail.

Summary of production and sales trends of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Address of enterprise with annual capacity of 10000 tons

Shanxi 3D and Shanxi Hongdong 5 are in parking, and there is no plan to restart temporarily

Yizheng Dalian Jiangsu Yizheng 4 parking

Sinopec Great Wall energy chemical Ningxia Yinchuan 9.2 unit load is not high

Henan Nenghua Henan Hebi 6 parking

The load of Xinjiang Meike Xinjiang Korla 5 unit is not high

It is planned to overhaul the 4.6 unit in Lanshan Tunhe and Changji, Xinjiang on the 25th

In the raw material market, the domestic PTMEG market is weak in operation, and the supply is relatively stable. The supplier is mainly responsible for receiving orders and negotiating with the company to ship. The cost pressure still exists and the profit margin is limited. In terms of price, the mainstream quotation of 1800 molecular weight goods source is 13800-14800 yuan / ton, and the actual negotiation price is 13800-14300 yuan / ton. In terms of units, the PTMEG industry started 50% of the total, Shanxi sanwei 50000 tons, Yizheng Dalian 40000 tons, Henan energy and chemical 60000 tons of plant shutdown, there is no restart plan; Sinopec Great Wall energy and chemical 92000 tons, Xinjiang Meike 50000 tons of load is not high; Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe 46000 tons of units are planned to be overhauled around the 25th. In addition, the market focus of pure MDI is downward, and the factory’s shipping pressure is still strong. The suppliers are willing to negotiate the shipment. The market quotation in South China, East China and North China is 12500-13000 yuan / ton, which is 800-1000 yuan / ton lower than that in April.

Under the background of the current textile off-season, the actual demand capacity of the downstream is limited, and the rigid demand procurement is mainly used. The market starts generally in Xiaoshao area of Zhejiang Province. The starting level of circular knitting machine market is maintained at 40% and that of wrapping yarn market is maintained at 5-60%. The overall starting level of yarn wrapping enterprises in Zhangjiagang is maintained at 5-60%. The market in Fujian is not high, with lace at 30-40% and warp knitting at 50-60%. The orders of enterprises in Guangdong Province follow up stably, and the start-up of circular knitting machine and warp knitting market is maintained at 50-70%.

From the perspective of the textile industry, it is understood that in June, the total retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear and textiles reached 105.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and knitwear were 512 billion yuan, with a decrease of 19.6% over the same period. In terms of export, driven by the significant increase in the export of related anti epidemic materials such as masks and protective clothing, China’s textile and clothing exports achieved the first year-on-year positive growth in this year. According to China’s customs data, from January to June 2020, China’s textile and clothing cumulative export volume is 125.188 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.16%, of which the cumulative export of textiles is 74.103.3 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 27.81%.

Despite the rapid growth of textile exports driven by the surge in the export of anti epidemic materials such as masks, the overall consumption confidence of the international market has continued to decline, and the consumption capacity has declined significantly. The export situation of clothing, home textiles, shoes and hats and other terminal fields is still not optimistic, among which the export of China’s clothing products continues to decline. According to the customs data, from January to June 2020, China’s accumulated clothing exports amounted to US $51.084 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.39%, still continuing the downward trend, accounting for 40.8% of the total textile and clothing exports in the same period.

Business agency analysts believe that the current spandex market is weak and stable, manufacturers are still starting high, and the supply of goods remains adequate. The raw material market trend is tired, the cost side support is insufficient, the downstream start-up level remains low, orders continue to be just needed, new orders follow-up is less, the overall wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, it is expected that the spandex market will continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Taking the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process, which has a large volume in the domestic market, as an example, the price of titanium dioxide is stable this week, with an average price of 13533.33 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

From the end of June to the beginning of July, titanium dioxide enterprises successively issued price adjustment letters. According to incomplete statistics, 27 mainstream titanium dioxide manufacturers have issued price increase notices, including Panzhihua Hengtong titanium industry, CNKI titanium dioxide Co., Ltd., Ningbo Xinfu Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., Jinpu Titanium Industry Co., Ltd., Panzhihua Dongfang Titanium Industry Co., Ltd., Yunnan Dayong Communication Co., Ltd., Guangxi Xilong Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. and longmang Bailian Group Co., Ltd. have successively announced price increases, with the mainstream range of about 500 yuan / ton. From the current price implementation of each manufacturer, it has basically realized the effect of stopping falling and a small rebound of some models. It has played a positive role in boosting the domestic price market and has a positive impact on the stability of titanium dioxide market confidence.

According to customs data, from January to may 2020, China exported 485800 tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of 22.02% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, the export volume in the first quarter was 331300 tons, accounting for 42.81% of the total output data; the export volume in April and may was relatively obvious, with the export volume of 88100 tons and 66500 tons, respectively, accounting for 30.06% and 24.54% of the total output data. The main reasons for the change in export volume are: poor domestic demand in the first quarter, manufacturers’ trading focus tends to export, and the outbreak of overseas epidemic in the second quarter, leading to the reduction of exports.

At present, with the control of the epidemic situation in various countries, the downstream demand will gradually recover, the trading situation will be improved compared with the previous period, and overseas orders will gradually flow back. Driven by the demand, the price of titanium dioxide will stop falling and rebound. This week, the price of titanium dioxide remained stable. The factory price of domestic rutile titanium dioxide with tax was 12000-14500 yuan / ton, that of anatase titanium dioxide was 10300-11800 yuan / ton, and that of chlorination titanium dioxide was 15500-20000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, this week Panxi area titanium concentrate price high operation, titanium ore supply shortage, some mining enterprises suspended external quotation. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is 920-960 yuan / ton, 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is 1380-1450 yuan / ton, and 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is 1300-1400 yuan / ton. The cost of raw ore and titanium middlings has been boosted step by step, and the price of titanium concentrate has been firm and upward. In addition, the outflow of spot goods has declined and the main downstream titanium dioxide has rebounded against the trend, so the miners are reluctant to sell.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts believe that: titanium dioxide market leader rose, some of the market titanium dioxide model tension, price rebound. At present, the price of raw materials is tense and high, and the cost pressure of titanium dioxide increases again. It is expected that the market price of titanium dioxide will gradually rise on the basis of stable market price in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As of July 23, Jiangsu styrene spot was about 5300 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton or 1.12% compared with 5360 yuan / ton on July 16. Recently, styrene support was insufficient, and some terminal demand was weakened.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of price: as of July 23, the transaction volume of Jiangsu common materials was 7900 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with July 16, and 8200 yuan / ton of fuel was flat compared with July 16.

3、 Future forecast

The overall EPS market performance is relatively rigid, with traders’ shipping intention increasing. However, due to the temporary failure of some EPS devices to produce normally, the supply of goods in East and South China is still tight, and some traders have no intention to make a substantial profit margin for shipment, thus tightening the market risk preference.

1、 Price trend

The average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China on July 24 was 3600 yuan / ton, slightly lower than that of last week, according to business agency data.

On July 23, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3565 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton or 2.59% over the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of July 23, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1412000 tons, an increase of 9900 tons or 0.71% compared with last Thursday, and a decrease of 12200 tons or 0.86% compared with Monday. Although the shipment is not smooth, there is no obvious accumulation of inventory due to less arrivals.

In terms of shipment, this week, the average daily delivery of Zhangjiagang main port was about 6000 tons, and that of Taicang was about 7000 tons, which was lower than that of last week.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 51%, and that of polyester is about 88%, which is not obvious compared with last week.

In terms of equipment, the overhaul time of ethylene glycol unit with an annual output of 360000 tons of Xinhang energy in Ordos City, Inner Mongolia, will be postponed to July 25, with an estimated maintenance time of about 25 days. 8% of the world’s ethylene glycol production capacity will be shut down or reduced by the end of July, involving more than 3 million tons.

In terms of futures, due to the positive demand of downstream polyester industry and the expected reduction of import sources, ethylene glycol futures have been more volatile recently.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Due to the decrease of arrival volume this week, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to rise to a certain extent, and the market price has increased. However, due to the long-term high inventory and low shipment level, the price support is weak. Although there is a follow-up news of polyester plant restart, but the loom operating rate has declined, the terminal demand is insufficient. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, the price of ethylene glycol will still be in a volatile situation.