The domestic market of cyclohexanone was narrowed. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the week was 5980 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the end of the week was 6020 yuan / ton, up 0.67% in the week. The price rose 13.16% month on month compared with the same period last year, down 25.06% compared with the same period last year.

In the week, the market of cyclohexanone was sorted out in a narrow range, the global resumption of production was promoted, the crude oil overall showed a rising trend, the pure benzene market was in horizontal operation, the cost surface support was relatively stable, the starting load of cyclohexanone commodity units was relatively stable, the factory spot pressure was not large, the downstream caprolactam spot market was stable and rising, the chemical fiber factory’s demand order for cyclohexanone was acceptable, but the downstream solvent order was insufficient Good, for high price conflict, a factory in Shandong Thursday offer prices down, low market prices appear, traders cautious trading.

Raw materials, pure benzene: this week, the price of pure benzene fell in the north and rose in the south. As of June 4, the main negotiation in East China was around 3550 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton compared with last week, and that in Shandong was around 3600 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Caprolactam: at the beginning of the week, Sinopec’s price of caprolactam remained stable at 10200 yuan / ton this week, and Shenyuan’s price increased by 200 to 10400 yuan / ton this week. On the spot side, supported by the contract price and no inventory pressure on the caprolactam plant at present, the seller mainly pushed up this week. In addition, the spot purchase volume of some polymerization plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased, supporting the continuous increase of caprolactam delivery price.

Adipic acid: this week, the crude oil and pure benzene market showed an overall upward trend. The domestic pure benzene followed up the overall shock, and the cost support for adipic acid was fair. The factory has strong intention to support the market, and the listing is relatively high, among which Liaohua executed 7000 yuan / ton; Zhonghao, Huafeng, Haili, Hualu, Tianli and Taihua executed 6900 yuan / ton. However, this month Dafeng plant may be expected to restart, Huafeng phase IV large-scale air downstream mentality. Therefore, the wait-and-see mood in the lower reaches of junior high school is still there, the enthusiasm for inquiry is general, more rigid needs small orders to make up positions, and the actual single trading is limited.

From the demand side, the current caprolactam spot supply is tight, but the price difference between cyclohexanone and caprolactam is near the cost line, and the solvent purchasing power is insufficient. It is expected that the downstream purchasing sentiment is not high. In addition, due to the high price of phenol, the demand for cyclohexanone in the chemical fiber market may still have some support. Supply side, cyclohexanone spot inventory pressure is not big, with orders slow down, inventory pressure or further increase. The supply and demand are facing each other. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community predict that the market of cyclohexanone will continue to be stable in the short term, and the price of raw material pure benzene and the demand for chemical fiber will still need attention in the long term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China this week rose steadily and then stabilized, with the weekly low price at the beginning of the week of 6643 yuan / ton; the weekly high price on Thursday of 6906 yuan / ton, and the weekly increase of 6902 yuan / ton on Friday of 3.90% and the weekly amplitude of 3.97%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Last month, Shandong propylene prices fell after shocks, and began to rise at the end of the month. On the first day, the price of propylene continued the upward trend on Sunday, with a slight increase of about 50 yuan / ton. On the second day, the price rose again by about 100 yuan / ton. On the third day, it continued to rise by 100 yuan / ton, and on the fourth day, it rose slightly by 50 yuan / ton. Today, it is generally stable. Some enterprises have a slight downward trend. Now, the market transaction is between 6850-7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton.

At the end of May, the international crude oil rose slightly. On June 1, 2 and 3, the crude oil price rose significantly. On June 4, the crude oil market fell slightly. The output reduction of OPEC meeting stopped somewhat, and its effect on propylene was slightly weakened.

In recent days, PP futures market is relatively cold. After rising at the beginning of this week, PP spot market has been stable, with a weekly increase of 2.40%, which has little impact on propylene.

This week’s acrylic acid market rose slightly to maintain stability, with a weekly increase of 0.78%, having little impact on propylene.

This week’s Propylene Oxide Market pulled up after a slight fall, with a weekly increase of 2.61% and a weekly amplitude of 3.00%, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

The price of epichlorohydrin remained stable after being lowered this week, with a weekly decline of 2.11%, which had little negative impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic price of n-butanol slightly declined, with a weekly decline of 0.60%, which had little impact on propylene.

Octanol rose steadily this week, up 2.25%, slightly positive for propylene.

Affected by the epidemic situation, isopropanol market, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, rose sharply in the early stage and fell sharply. This week, it suddenly rose sharply again, with a weekly increase of 11.01%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

Phenol Market in Shandong Province continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 5.19%, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

Shandong acetone market rose sharply this week, with a weekly increase of 20.28%, which had a greater positive impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of business and chemical branch, the international crude oil market has a good support, but to a limited extent. However, the downstream operating rate is relatively high, propylene inventory is not much, supply is slightly tight, and some downstream upstream is also relatively obvious, but the current trading is still relatively cold, and it is expected that propylene prices will start to stabilize in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on May 31, the average price of the mainstream manufacturers of salicylic acid was 14666.67 yuan / ton, up 2.33% from the beginning of the month, and the average price rose more than 300 yuan / ton. This month, the trend was stable and upward.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the salicylic acid market is improving. After May 1st Festival, with the restart of foreign economy, the export situation of salicylic acid improved, the orders increased, the starting load of manufacturers increased, with the production and sales, the pressure was not great, some manufacturers operated at full load, the mentality of the industry improved, at the same time, the price of phenol at the end of raw material rose sharply in May, with strong support, the price of salicylic acid rose sharply, and then it rose. At present, domestic demand has basically recovered, but most of the salicylic acid is exported. At this stage, the demand side is still not fully released, so it is difficult to have practical support for the rise. The manufacturer’s mentality is stable, and the trend of salicylic acid is stable after the rise in May, and some enterprises reduce their prices according to their own shipments. As of May 31, the industrial price of chemical salicylic acid in MaoYuan of Zhenjiang is about 15000 yuan / ton, the industrial price of professional chemical salicylic acid in Hebei is about 14000 yuan / ton, and the industrial price of salicylic acid in Longxin pharmaceutical in Shandong is about 15500 yuan / ton, with little change in Enterprise price.

Phenol rose sharply in May. At present, the arrival volume at the end of May is relatively sufficient, and the phenol Market is weak. According to the monitoring of the business association, the listing price of petrochemical manufacturers has remained stable at 6900-7000 yuan / ton. The market offer in East China is 6650-6700 yuan / ton, that in South China is 6850 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong and surrounding Yanshan is 6900 yuan / ton. This week’s opening phenol Market in the positive situation of tight supply, the cargo holders actively push up the market, and then from the recent transaction situation, the downstream has obvious resistance to high price phenol, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market volume is not optimistic. The business agency expects the phenol Market to run steadily in the short term, and expects the reference offer of the market in East China to be 6700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the salicylic acid analyst of the business agency, the price of raw materials is rising, which drives the price of salicylic acid up and up. The demand side is getting better, but the release is insufficient. The manufacturer’s mentality is mainly to stabilize, and there is no price adjustment plan. It is expected that the market of salicylic acid will maintain stable operation in the short term.

1、 Melamine price trend:

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis:

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, there was no significant change in the melamine market on June 3. On the 3rd, the average price of melamine enterprises was 5066.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday and 0.65% lower than that of May 3rd. At present, the supply side of melamine is stable, the downstream demand side is general, the market is just in demand, and the melamine market is mainly stable. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 4800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 4600 yuan / ton.

On June 2, the melamine commodity index was 54.48, the same as yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 45.52% lower than the peak of 100.00 on September 18, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the urea market in Shandong Province rose slightly on June 3. The price of liquid ammonia in the upstream is high and consolidated, which provides certain cost support for urea. The downstream rubber plate factory and compound fertilizer factory follow up appropriately. The middlemen are cautious in receiving goods. The price of urea is expected to fluctuate slightly in the future, with limited impact on melamine.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 2, 2020, there are 19 commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including one commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are sulfur (5.70%), hydrogen peroxide (3.00%), and organosilicon DMC (2.36%). There are 11 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month-on-month basis, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are butadiene (- 8.19%), polysilicon (- 3.14%) and acetic acid (- 1.24%). The average price of this day is 0.06%.

3、 Future forecast:

Melamine analysts believe that the recent slight rise in the price of raw urea has limited impact on melamine, and the downstream just needs to purchase. It is expected that the melamine market will be mainly stable in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

 
According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, on June 3, the spot nickel price was 103783.33 yuan / ton, up 0.84% compared with the previous trading day, down 8.75% compared with the beginning of the year, up 6.1% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

In May, ISM manufacturing industry in the U.S. stabilized at a low level. Overnight, LUNI nickel rose 2.22% to a three-month high. Domestic favorable policies continued, and the prospect of industrial metal demand may improve, supporting the rise of nickel price. In terms of nickel ore, xinka, the Philippines and Guatemala will play an alternative role. The domestic epidemic in the Philippines is serious, resulting in limited supply of nickel ore and low domestic production of nickel and iron. Indonesia’s ferronickel production is in good condition and has not been affected by too many epidemics. The port inventory of nickel ore declined and the price of ore steadily strengthened. In terms of consumption, the sales of new energy vehicles are down, and subsidies are expected to continue to mitigate the impact of the industry; the supply and demand of downstream stainless steel are weak, and short-term consumption pressure suppresses the rebound space above the nickel price, but the output of stainless steel is expected to increase, supporting the rebound of nickel price below.

3、 Future prospects

Future forecast: tight supply, weak downstream consumption, nickel price is expected to maintain high volatility trend.

In May, the domestic butadiene market rose first and then stabilized. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the month was 3890 yuan / ton, and the domestic butadiene market price at the end of the month was 4184 yuan / ton, up 7.57% in the month, with a year-on-year drop of 51.07% compared with the same period last year.

Under the expectation of unit overhaul in May, Sinopec’s price rose continuously at the end of April, which led to a wave of increase in butadiene market from the end of April to the first ten days of May. In the month, Ningmei, Zhongsha, Yangba, Lanxing, Chengzhi, srbang and other devices were shut down. In addition, the temporary short-term shutdown of Dalian Hengli device in the last ten days of the month, the operation rate of domestic butadiene industry was as low as 60%. At the same time, Shandong Huayu and Wanda rubber devices needed foreign raw materials, and the supply and demand fundamentals were good to a certain extent, boosting the market. However, since the middle of May, the ships arrived at the port intensively, and the downstream raw material inventory was relatively abundant, which resulted in the poor transaction of high price goods, and the increase of suppliers was not effectively followed up; at the end of the month, the export sales of northeast manufacturers increased, and the poor transaction once dragged the bottom price of Fushun auction down to 3100 Yuan / ton, although the price increase has brought support to the mentality of some businesses, the downstream wait-and-see situation is still obvious, and the performance of East China market is weak.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China increased by 500 yuan / ton to 4500 yuan / ton compared with the end of April, which was maintained in May; Nanjing Chengzhi 100000 ton / year oxidation and dehydrogenation unit April 7 Daily shutdown: the current shutdown status is continued, and it is planned to restart next month; Sinopec’s 200000 t / a butadiene plant will be shut down for maintenance on May 9, and the planned restart time may be July; Shenhua Ningmei’s 64000 T / a butadiene plant will be shut down for maintenance on May 5, and the planned restart time may be early June; Dalian Hengli’s 140000 T / a butadiene plant will be shut down for a short time in June, and the price will be up to the end of the month Refer to 3780 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month.

In terms of industrial chain, the downstream SBR: according to the monitoring of business agency data, the domestic SBR market was mainly volatile in May, with the price at the beginning of the month at 8220 yuan / ton, and then slightly increased to the mid month high of 8280 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month dropped to 8160 yuan / ton, with the overall end of the month falling 0.73% compared with the beginning of the month. On May 30, the SBR commodity index was 26.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 74.63% from 103.60 (2011-09-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 3.83% from 25.31, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: May cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber weak shock. According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in early May was 7800 yuan / ton, then rose to the monthly high of 7875 yuan / ton, and fell to 7712 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The overall price at the end of the month was 1.12% lower than that at the beginning of the month. On May 30, the CIS polybutadiene rubber commodity index was 23.17, which was flat with yesterday, 77.37% lower than 102.40 (2011-09-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 2.48% higher than 22.61, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 47 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 31 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 34.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were ethylene (69.89%), trichloromethane (67.86%) and crude benzene (24.52%). There are 37 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 16 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%) and propane (- 11.97%). This month, the average rise and fall was 3.66%.

In the future, the overall operating rate of butadiene industry in China is relatively low in the near future, but under the influence of concentrated arrival of outward shipment, the supply side is not showing good sustainability, and the abundant supply and weak transaction in the downstream and circulation links put pressure on the market. The downstream industry’s profit stimulated construction is relatively high, and the demand side has the bottom support for Butadiene at the low price node, but the domestic butadiene market fundamentals are still weak as a whole, and the butadiene analysts of the business club expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market will fluctuate slightly.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of fluorite in China has risen, ending the two-month decline since May 25. The price of fluorite has risen from 2577.78 yuan / ton on May 25 to 2666.67 yuan / ton on June 2, an increase of 3.45%.

The price of fluorite bottomed out and rebounded, among which the most favorable factor was the increase of domestic inquiries. Some manufacturers reported the recent increase of orders for fluorite. Stimulated by the increase of enquiries, domestic fluorite manufacturers were in a strong mood of rising. The price of fluorite was ready to be issued, and the market price gradually increased. The operation of domestic fluorite manufacturers is stable, the operation of mines and flotation devices in the site is normal, the delivery of fluorite in the site is improved, and the market price of fluorite is slightly higher. In the near future, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid has recovered, and the downstream purchase of terminal is mainly on demand. As of the 2nd day, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2500-2700 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2600-2800 yuan / ton. In the near future, domestic fluorite businesses are bullish Xu strong, fluorite market has a rising trend.

Price statistics of products in fluorine chemical industry:

Product rise and fall on May 25, June 2 unit: yuan / ton

Fluorite 2577.78 2666.67 3.45% yuan / ton

Hydrofluoric acid 8630 8630 yuan / ton

R22 14500 14833.33 2.30% yuan / ton

R134a 20333.33 18833.33-7.38% yuan / ton

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite remained low. As of the 2nd day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 8630 yuan / ton. The market price of hydrofluoric acid started to rise slightly since the 28th day. The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream was supported by the market price of fluorite. The market price of hydrofluoric acid lagged behind the market of fluorite, and fluorite price led the rise of fluorine chemical products.

Recently, the sales of the automobile industry have improved compared with the previous ones, but the market trend of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is still depressed. There is no obvious improvement in the demand for refrigerant. With the continuous recovery of foreign economy, the export of refrigerant terminal may improve. However, the domestic air-conditioning industry starts at a low level and the demand for maintenance and after-sales is weak. On the whole, foreign demand may rise. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price is still fluctuating, but the situation of market price or not appears. The mainstream price of R22 in domestic large enterprises is 15500-17000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, the demand for R134a is cold, the procurement of downstream industry is not active in the near future, the price drops slightly, the downstream demand is not significantly improved, and the growth of fluorite market is limited to some extent.

Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic ABS market strengthened in May, and the spot market price generally rose. As of May 31, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 12100.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.62% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

In all upstream aspects of ABS, the mainstream price of styrene in China fluctuated upward in May. According to the data of business agency, as of May 31, the price of sample enterprises was about 5416.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.21% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. This month, the chemical industry as a whole strengthened due to the positive impact of the rise in crude oil. However, the supply of domestic styrene market is still sufficient, with less spot shipments, pulling the styrene market downward. At the end of the month, the inventory of styrene port in East China rose and the spot supply was sufficient, but the spot market trading was not good. The downstream is still dominated by rigid demand, the spot selling pressure is still on, and the overall supply and demand performance is short. Business data analysts expect styrene prices to remain stable in the short term, with narrow range consolidation, following the trend of crude oil;

At the end of last month, the price of acrylonitrile stabilized, and this month, the market trend of acrylonitrile rebounded. In the middle of the year, some enterprises have plans to reduce production to relieve supply pressure. At present, the acrylonitrile inventory reduction is smooth, the supply of goods is reduced, the mentality of merchants at the end of the month is positive, and the storage and speculation atmosphere is rising. However, at present, the demand is not strong, the inquiry atmosphere of downstream factories is general, the stock just needs to be operated, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be stronger;

The domestic butadiene market recovered after strengthening this month. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, the price of butadiene in this month was 8.19% higher than that in the same period last month, and 51.10% lower than that in the same period last year. Sinopec’s price increase before the May 1st Festival boosted the firm offer of middlemen. After the festival, the high-speed automobile transportation restart charges also supported the market offer price to some extent. At the same time, driven by China’s market atmosphere, the price of some of the near foreign ships strengthened, bringing a boost to the domestic market. However, the downstream inquiry in East China market is limited. After the festival, the high price of the market was not smooth, and the butadiene market was weak under the drag of weak trading. In the downstream demand drag, the market up weak. The atmosphere in East China is weak, and the transaction of some goods with slightly low price drags down the center of offer, and there is no lack of spot circulation to the northern market in the week, resulting in the transaction of slightly high price goods in Northeast China is not smooth, and the overall market atmosphere is weak. The butadiene analysts of the business association predict that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline in the short term, with the low-end finishing as the main factor and the market price range referring to 3500-3800 yuan / ton;

This month, the domestic ABS market is strong, among which the rising momentum in the middle of the month is strong. According to the data of business agency, May 18 rose 3.59% in a single day, and domestic businesses reported two gains in one day. After that, the market continued to pull up. On the 19th, the average price of each brand rose by 300-700 yuan, to about 11950 yuan / ton on the 20th, or 7.71% in three days. *** Stimulate the price of helmets to go up all the way, and electric helmets have become hot products online and offline. As the main raw material of helmet, the demand of ABS will break out in a short time, which will benefit the domestic ABS market. In May, the operation rate of domestic ABS petrochemical plant was almost full load operation, and the industry operation rate was nearly 98%. The existing inventory has basically fallen to the average low level, and the atmosphere of speculation has been maintained in the field. The high-level shipping of merchants is the main thing, and the downstream factories are cautious in their stock up mentality.

Future forecast:

Business analysts think: ABS market is stronger in May, and most brand prices have increased significantly. Cost side of the upstream three material trend in the near future is OK, the cost of general support. At present, the spot supply of ABS is reduced, and the demand for downstream production volume is increased, but there is resistance to high price goods. Business confidence is strong, speculation is still in the atmosphere. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to adjust in the near future.

Since October 2019, when the chemical market started the unilateral downward trend, it was not until April 2020 that the chemical market ushered in the turning point. However, in April, there was a lot of bad news. The overall increase of the market was not optimistic. After May 1st, the chemical market gradually entered a good situation, and the market showed a unilateral upward trend. According to the commodity data provider – Business Agency (100 ppi.com ）The monitoring shows that the chemical industry index on January 1, 2020 is 736 points, the chemical industry index on April 8, 2020 is 598 points, with an overall decline of 18.75%, the chemical industry index on April 30 is 621 points, the chemical industry index on May 31 is 657 points, and the chemical industry market overall rose 36 points, with an increase of 5.8%. As can be seen from the trend chart of chemical industry index in the figure below, the chemical industry market gradually recovered in May, showing a unilateral and steady upward trend, and the industry gradually recovered.

In May, the chemical industry market as a whole showed a trend of up and down. First, affected by the sharp rise of crude oil, the whole petrochemical industry is in good condition, among which phenol ketone industry chain is outstanding, and the whole industry chain is in an upward trend, with an average increase of 12%. Second, inorganic chemical products did not perform well, chlor alkali plate, fertilizer plate and fluorine chemical industry showed a downward trend. According to the business association (100 ppi.com *** There are 37 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 17.8% of the total commodities monitored in the sector; the top 6 products with a decline are R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%), propane (- 11.97%), hydrofluoric acid (- 10.66%), light soda (- 10.26%) and R22 (- 10.10%). Chemical products rose and fell 3.66% in May.

The chemical industry market is gradually warming up, and the phenol ketone industry chain is showing an eye-catching performance

In May, the chemical industry market as a whole showed an upward trend, and the industry gradually recovered. The overall performance of phenol ketone industry chain was eye-catching, which played an important role in the overall upward trend of the chemical industry. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there are 8 rising and 1 falling commodities in the price rise and fall list of phenolic ketone industry, and 0 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities up were bisphenol A (21.78%), acetone (21.05%), pure benzene (19.21%); the main commodities down were isopropanol (- 0.86%). In the 90 chemical products monitored by the chemical industry, the average growth rate is 3.66%, of which 9 products in the phenol ketone industry chain are 12%, and the phenol ketone industry chain is the most prominent in the chemical industry.

Recently, the phenol ketone industry chain has attracted attention. First, affected by the epidemic, isopropanol has risen to a historical high in April. As an important disinfectant product, isopropanol is now favored by overseas markets, and export orders have skyrocketed. In May, isopropanol was running at a high level, up 145.45% on the same period. Second, acetone, as the raw material of isopropanol, rose significantly in May due to the soaring crude oil and tight market supply. For two consecutive months, it rose 150% in some regions, 180% higher than the previous year, a six-year high. Third, affected by the increasing cost of raw materials, the downward products of the whole industrial chain have shown a substantial increase trend, and some industries are unable to digest the pressure brought by the upward cost, which also presents a situation of overall shutdown. In a word, the star products of phenol ketone industry chain are emerging in an endless stream recently, which has attracted the attention of chemical industry market.

Crude oil soared 70% in May, boosting the chemical industry as a whole.

Since the historic OPEC + production reduction agreement came into effect in May, the situation of oversupply in the crude oil market has been greatly improved, and the market’s expectation that the oil price has been proved to be at the bottom has gradually increased. The recovery of international crude oil has led to the recovery of petrochemical sector, *** Although the terminal demand of each industrial chain is still weak, the rising crude oil will restore the market confidence.

***

Inorganic chemical products such as fluorine chemical industry, chemical fertilizer industry and chlor alkali industry are in recession, with the overall downward trend.

In May, the chemical market saw a decline in 37 commodities, with R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%), propane (- 11.97%), hydrofluoric acid (- 10.66%), light soda ash (- 10.26%) and R22 (- 10.10%) as the top six products. They are all inorganic chemical products.

Three of the six chemical products (R134a, hydrofluoric acid and R22) with a large decline were fluorinated chemical products, while fluorite, another important raw material of fluorinated chemical industry, fell by 4.02% in May. On the whole, the fluorine chemical industry is affected by the epidemic situation. The demand of downstream refrigerant industry is cold, the enterprise’s operating rate is low, the terminal export is not smooth, and the raw materials from the bottom to the top continue to decline. ***

In May, the fertilizer market was in the off-season. Affected by the downturn of domestic demand and the sharp decline of exports, the performance of the fertilizer sector was not optimistic. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 1 rising commodity, 8 falling commodities and 0 rising and falling commodity in the price list of chemical fertilizer. The main commodities that rose were ammonium nitrate (1.30%); the main commodities that fell were potassium chloride (- 15.14%), monoammonium phosphate (- 5.39%), liquid ammonia (- 3.21%), and the average rise and fall in May was – 3.25%. Take potassium chloride, which has the largest decline, as an example. At present, the market is facing three major pressures, namely, the large stock of Hong Kong, the weak demand and the decline of international prices. Therefore, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is prominent. Analysts of potassium chloride in business cooperatives believe that the short-term market or low consolidation of potassium chloride is the main factor.

The uncertain factors of the current global epidemic situation and import and export trade situation are great. Both at home and abroad are actively promoting the resumption of enterprises. However, under the current background, it will take time for the overseas market to recover. Although China continues to increase various stimulus policies to promote market recovery, the recovery of the global economy is not smooth. In June, the chemical market continued to rise, but at present, the terminal product inventory is high, and the market is still under pressure. The business agency expects the chemical industry market to recover gradually in June as a whole, but the road may be more tortuous, rising and falling hard.

In May, the price trend of adipic acid continued the weak trend of last month. The price was weak and the market was calm. According to the data of business agency, the price of adipic acid turned red in May, but the monthly decline was only 0.61% (as shown in the figure above). The price of dealers mainly fluctuated in the range of 100-200 yuan / ton. As of May 29, the mainstream price of adipic acid in East China was generally 6500-6800 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream cost, crude oil rebounded and benefited the downstream petrochemical industry. Pure benzene upstream of adipic acid was also affected and the price rebounded. From the beginning of May to now, as of May 29, and according to the monitoring of business society, pure benzene has increased by nearly 15% (as shown in the figure below), but it has not brought fundamental benefits to adipic acid. On the one hand, the cost transmission has a certain lag effect, on the other hand, in the early February and March, pure benzene fell sharply, with a drop of more than 50%, but the decline of adipic acid has not kept up with the decline of pure benzene, so adipic acid is now in the decline of pure benzene There is still some profit space without obvious increase, so adipic acid is also more resistant to falling than the upstream pure benzene. From another perspective, the root cause of the price downturn of adipic acid is more from the supply and demand side.

In terms of market supply, the operating rate of enterprises in the whole month remains at a high level, above 80%. The supply of goods is relatively sufficient, and the manufacturers have been accumulating inventory, and the inventory pressure remains high. And the delivery strength is not good. At present, although most dealers have returned to normal delivery, the downstream demand has not yet reached the level before the epidemic, and the dealers are still relatively cautious in taking delivery. Some dealers purchase according to orders and operate with light inventory. On the whole, the current market has shown a trend of both high enterprise inventory and market inventory, and later market de stocking may continue.

From the perspective of terminal demand, downstream demand is weak, and it is still in the off-season level. The operating rate of downstream factories has not been significantly improved, and the overall consumption level of plastic products has not been significantly improved, which is difficult to boost the upstream raw material market. In particular, the operating rate of downstream real estate is generally lower than the same period last year, and the sales volume of polyurethane and other insulation materials is also lower than the same period last year. In addition, downstream products such as PA66 did not get out of the dilemma. As soon as the price fell, it fell again and again. Since February, the price has continued to decline. As of May 29, the decline was more than 18%, and the decline in a single may was more than 5% (as shown in the figure below). The poor terminal demand is the fundamental reason why adipic acid price is difficult to get out of the downturn. In addition, in addition to the weak domestic demand, the external demand has also worsened, especially due to the impact of the overseas epidemic, the external demand has continued to decline, and the export trade orders of overseas terminal footwear, leather and other manufacturing industries have declined. In May, the terminal demand is likely to further shrink, because after the delivery of the previous export orders, the new orders have declined significantly, which may further force the enterprises to reduce the burden Commence work to relieve supply pressure.

In the later stage, the Business Association believes that the upstream chemical products have recovered due to the impact of crude oil rebound, but the intermediate products such as adipic acid do not enjoy the dividend at the cost end, but increase the burden of the enterprise due to the increase of upstream cost. This further reflects the dilemma of current demand. The downstream demand is weak. Affected by the reduction of orders caused by the overseas epidemic, it can be said that the domestic and foreign trade difficulties. In a comprehensive consideration, adipic acid will still shake and adjust at the bottom in the near future, and it will take time to get out of the haze.