1、 Price trend

The average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China on July 24 was 3600 yuan / ton, slightly lower than that of last week, according to business agency data.

On July 23, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3565 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton or 2.59% over the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of July 23, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1412000 tons, an increase of 9900 tons or 0.71% compared with last Thursday, and a decrease of 12200 tons or 0.86% compared with Monday. Although the shipment is not smooth, there is no obvious accumulation of inventory due to less arrivals.

In terms of shipment, this week, the average daily delivery of Zhangjiagang main port was about 6000 tons, and that of Taicang was about 7000 tons, which was lower than that of last week.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 51%, and that of polyester is about 88%, which is not obvious compared with last week.

In terms of equipment, the overhaul time of ethylene glycol unit with an annual output of 360000 tons of Xinhang energy in Ordos City, Inner Mongolia, will be postponed to July 25, with an estimated maintenance time of about 25 days. 8% of the world’s ethylene glycol production capacity will be shut down or reduced by the end of July, involving more than 3 million tons.

In terms of futures, due to the positive demand of downstream polyester industry and the expected reduction of import sources, ethylene glycol futures have been more volatile recently.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Due to the decrease of arrival volume this week, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to rise to a certain extent, and the market price has increased. However, due to the long-term high inventory and low shipment level, the price support is weak. Although there is a follow-up news of polyester plant restart, but the loom operating rate has declined, the terminal demand is insufficient. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, the price of ethylene glycol will still be in a volatile situation.

This week, the domestic rare earth market price trend tends to be stable as a whole, heavy rare earth prices maintain a high volatility trend, and some products in the light rare earth market slightly callback. According to the rare earth plate index of the business society, the rare earth index on July 24 was 345 points, which was the same as yesterday, 65.50% lower than the highest point of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 27.31% higher than the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of the end of the weekend, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China was 294000 yuan / ton, down 0.34% from 295000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of praseodymium and neodymium alloy was 371500 yuan / ton, down 0.13% from 372000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of neodymium oxide was 311000 yuan / ton, which was flat this week; the price of metal neodymium was 392500 yuan / ton, which was stable this week, and the price trend of rare earth such as praseodymium oxide and praseodymium metal praseodymium Temporarily stable.

In recent years, the domestic light rare earth industry is mainly due to the negative downstream procurement, strong wait-and-see attitude, reduced trading volume, loss of support for manufacturers’ prices, a slight correction in some prices in the light rare earth market, and a stable price trend of other products. In recent years, the demand and stock up situation of permanent magnet manufacturers is general, the price of PR and nd rare earth is mainly stable, and the market price of light rare earth is still at a low level. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic situation, the import of overseas rare earth ores has dropped sharply, and the waste recycling and monazite raw materials have decreased, resulting in the decline of domestic rare earth smelting output. However, the domestic economic demand is not so good, and the domestic market price of light rare earth has not changed much.

This week, the price trend of China’s legitimate family is stable. As of the end of the week, the price of dysprosium oxide is 1.845 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.84 million yuan / ton. Although the proportion of medium and heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan is large, it is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth, but the collection and storage information is uncertain. At present, Myanmar’s customs clearance still affects the import and supply of medium and heavy rare earth in China However, the downstream demand is not positive in the near future, and the price of heavy rare earth market is mainly stable. In recent years, the price of heavy rare earth remains high and the downstream demand is not obviously improved. The market price of heavy rare earth remains high and fluctuates.

The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry. According to the notice, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the application of rare earth enterprises, and formed a collection of supporting policies for the resumption of work and production of rare earth industry. Favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry. Meanwhile, Sino US relations are tense. Key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. Recently, the supply of rare earth market is normal, the demand is general, and the price of domestic rare earth market is generally stable.

Recently, the domestic demand for rare earths has fallen down compared with the previous period. In addition, the downstream purchasing is not active and the wait-and-see attitude is strong. Analysts of business agency expect that the market price of rare earth will remain stable in the future.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 29th week (7.20-7.24) of 2020, there are 1 kind of rising commodity, 0 kind of falling commodity and 6 kinds of rising and falling to 0. The main commodities that rose were cryolite (1.74%). The price trend of fluorite, hydrofluoric acid, chloroform, R22 and R134a is stable. The specific product analysis is as follows:

According to statistics, as of July 24, the average price of fluorite in China was 2800 yuan / ton, and the domestic fluorite price was mainly stable. According to statistics, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2700 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi Province is 2700-2900 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the domestic fluorite price trend has remained volatile. First, the recent domestic fluorite enterprises have started normal operation, the fluorite operating rate is relatively high, and the domestic mines and flotation devices have started to increase, which makes the spot supply of fluorite in the field normal, the on-site supply is sufficient, and the domestic fluorite price is mainly stable. Secondly, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and refrigerants in the lower reaches remain low recently, which has a negative impact on the domestic fluorite market, and the domestic fluorite price is not driven enough. In the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market and refrigerant industry is depressed, and fluorite price is expected to remain stable in the later stage.

As of 24 days, the average price of hydrofluoric acid in China was 9035 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market remained stable. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian was 8500-9000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong was 8500-9000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi was 8600-9200 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was about 8000-8500 yuan / ton The market price trend is stable.

Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid operating rate is about 60%. The enterprises reflect that the current spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, but the downstream market is not significantly improved. The demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. Recently, due to the stable price trend of downstream market and the little change of upstream fluorite price, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is stable. Recently, some manufacturers reflect that hydrofluoric acid still exists As a result, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is mainly stable due to the loss, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in some regions remains stable. Generally speaking, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price has no obvious positive support in the near future, and it is expected that the hydrofluoric acid market price will remain stable in the future.

In recent years, the price trend of refrigerant products has been stable. This week, the market of R134a in the refrigerant market is running weakly and stably with little change. The raw material hydrofluoric acid rose slightly, but the support was limited, the terminal demand was weak, the car market demand was poor, the enterprise’s inventory was high, the shipment was under pressure, the market was not good, and the attitude of the industry was negative. However, the price of R134a was at a low level, and the enterprises had the willingness to support the price for cost reasons, so the price was weak and stable, and the decline was postponed. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of July 24, the average price of refrigerant R134a was around 17000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 15300-17000 yuan / ton, which was stable. Refrigerant R22 market stable operation, overall stable. The market of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the raw material end is stable, the supporting force is still in place, the terminal demand is general, the export is not good, and the domestic after-sales market has not improved significantly. Under the domestic and foreign troubles, R22 manufacturers are under pressure to ship, and the start-up is not high. The prices of mainstream manufacturers are stable. Some traders lower their prices and make good profits. In the short term, the market is stagnant. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of July 24, the average price of refrigerant R22 was around 16000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 15500-16000 yuan / ton. The price trend of downstream refrigerant industry was mainly stable.

The price trend of fluorine chemical industry products is stable this week, the demand of terminal downstream is not improved, and the export market is not good. In addition, the domestic refrigerant industry starts to maintain a low level. It is expected that the sales of fluorine chemical industry will remain depressed in the future, and the market will continue to be stagnant.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong has been rising steadily recently. As of July 23, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 2230 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 9.31% compared with the beginning of the month and 0.9% higher than the same period of last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Jinling, Shandong Province: 440000 tons / year: 60%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 70%

Shandong Dongyue: 280000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year full load

Jiangsu Meilan 200000 tons / year 70%

Quhua, Zhejiang: 300000 yuan / year: 70%

Zhejiang Juhua 300000 tons / year 70%

Due to the reduction of production load of some enterprises in Shandong Province, and the implementation of export orders by Luxi Chemical Industry, the spot supply in the market has declined. In addition, the inventory pressure of enterprises is not obvious, the enterprise has a good attitude of price support, and the ex factory quotation is slightly increased. The downstream market is mainly in demand, and some traders replenish their goods to support the stable operation of dichloromethane price. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2230-2280 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 2800 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2300 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream market, the methanol market continued to weaken, and some maintenance units were restarted in the early stage, and the supply side was expected to increase in the near future; the inventory of some downstream enterprises was on the high side, and the downstream market was not able to catch up with the high price, and the overall transaction atmosphere turned weak, at present, the liquid chlorine market started to go down, and the increase in market supply led to obvious price reduction in the downstream market, with the current average price of 800-900 yuan/ About tons.

On the other hand, the downstream market demand of dichloromethane is poor, among which the market of refrigerant R134a is weak and stable, the terminal demand has not been improved, the export market of refrigerant R134a and downstream products is difficult to recover, the demand of automobile market industry is poor, the manufacturers start low, the goods are general, and the supply exceeds the demand situation, the operators are more bearish; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started flat, and the dichloromethane was not improved Insufficient support.

Business Club methane chloride data analysts believe that the current supply of dichloromethane market is limited, downstream market purchasing just enough, but in the long run, it is still flat, and it is expected to explore a small rise in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of July 23, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11900 yuan / ton, which was basically stable compared with the price on the first day of this month; compared with the price on June 1, the average price increased by 733 yuan / ton, or 6.57%.

Since July, the market of n-propanol is high and stable

Since the beginning of July 7, the overall market of n-propanol in China has been running stably. The domestic isopropanol market continued to fall sharply this month, and the price had already fallen below 10000 yuan / ton. Therefore, the price advantage of n-propanol as solvent has begun to be reduced. At present, the market of n-propanol is weak, the market just needs to follow up, the trading atmosphere is general, the overall inventory level of the market is low, and the enterprise’s offer is still firm. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, on July 23, the domestic n-propanol market quotation was relatively stable and fluctuated in a narrow range. In Zibo area of Shandong Province, the bulk water is around 10500-10700 yuan / ton, and the barrel is 11300-11600 yuan / ton; in Nanjing area, it is around 10800-11100 yuan / ton. In Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. (formerly Nanjing Wujiang Chemical Co., Ltd.), the n-propanol production unit starts normally, and the n-propanol offers 11000 yuan / T (bulk water). At present, the sales situation of n-propanol market is relatively stable, and most manufacturers in Nanjing maintain stable quotation. Dealers in different regions still have reservation on the price. It is not easy to monitor the price. As a result, the specific negotiation situation may be different. There are differences in each region. The actual negotiation is the main one. The future market needs to wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment.

In terms of raw materials, since July, the ethylene market has risen first and then decreased, then stabilized in the near future and then recovered slightly. On the first few days of the month, the overall ethylene market rose slightly. From the 7th, the external market of some ethylene fell, and the decline continued to be stable after the middle of July. Period ethylene overall showed a small upward trend. The price of ethylene market in Asia remained stable. The average price of ethylene on 21 days was 738.50 US dollars / ton, up 0.20% from 743.25 dollars / ton in the previous trading day. The current price rose by 2.88% month on month, and the current price decreased by 16.44% compared with last year. As of July 22, CFR closed at $795-805 per ton in Northeast Asia and $700-710 in South East Asia. The price of European ethylene market rose. As of the 22nd, the European ethylene market price was FD, northwest Europe closed at 754-764 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 695-703 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States remained stable. As of the 22nd, the price was 335-353 US dollars / ton. Generally speaking, the ethylene market in Europe and the United States has increased steadily in recent years. The demand of the whole ethylene market is fair, and the trading atmosphere is general, and the increase is small.

Narrow range shock control market high level of n-propanol may continue

It is expected that the price of n-propanol may decline due to the influence of market demand in the near future, but the overall fluctuation is limited due to the support of raw materials. In addition, in the early stage, the supply and demand of n-propanol market remained relatively stable under the premise that the solvent effect was not widely used. Therefore, although the market returns to the previous demand market again, it is expected that under the active control of the production by the factory, the high level market of n-propanol is not affected by the fluctuation, and the narrow range adjustment may still be in the period.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 23, the price quoted by pet water bottle manufacturers was 5483.33 yuan / ton, which was 1.2% lower than that of the same period last week. The focus of the negotiation is low, and the manufacturers are running in a weak position. At present, the mainstream price range is 5400-5500 yuan / ton.

The pet market is in a weak position, crude oil is falling, and there is no good support at the cost side. Some manufacturers of polyester bottle chips are slow to ship, and the overall atmosphere is flat. At present, the mainstream manufacturers in East China are offering around 5400-5500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market negotiation is around 5300-5400 yuan / ton. At present, the price of Xiamen Tenglong is 5500, Yuan / ton: Guangdong Taibao 5500 yuan / ton, Zhuhai China Resources 5550 yuan / ton, Zhejiang wankai 5450 yuan / ton, Yizheng Chemical fiber 5350 yuan / ton. Due to the lack of good support for raw materials, most of them hold a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

The negotiation focus of upstream PTA market is weak, with cautious wait-and-see, and the raw material ethylene glycol runs weakly and stably, and the number of transactions is limited.

The rubber and plastic index on July 22 was 614 points, 4 points lower than yesterday, 42.08% lower than the highest point 1060 (2012-03-14), and 16.29% higher than the lowest point 528 on April 06, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Pet analysts of business agency believe that: in the short term, the pet market is weak and stable, and we should wait and see carefully. (the above prices are provided by major pet manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by pet business analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

On July 22, the melamine market was temporarily stable with little fluctuation. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of July 22, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 5066.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with yesterday, and fell by 0.65% on a three-month cycle. Recently, some units have been shut down for maintenance, and the melamine operating rate has declined, and the supply of goods has been reduced. Enterprises are supported by early orders, so there is no pressure to take goods.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, melamine prices in some regions (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation): the price of melamine in some areas is higher than that in other regions

At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4500 yuan / ton; that in Sichuan is around 4900 yuan / ton; that in Henan is around 4900 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5000 yuan / ton.

On July 22, the urea market in Shandong Province dropped slightly. The price of liquid ammonia in the upstream dropped slightly recently. The cost support of urea was weak and the demand for downstream was less. The rubber plate factory and compound fertilizer plant followed up appropriately, and the middlemen took delivery cautiously. The urea price was expected to fluctuate slightly in the future market.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts in the business agency believe that at present, the enterprises are carrying out the early orders in an orderly manner, and the goods are OK. In the near future, the prices of some enterprises have increased, but the terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the space for the continuous rise of melamine is limited. It is expected that the melamine market will be mainly stable in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

On the 22nd, the spot copper price was 52565 yuan / ton, up 1.26% compared with the previous day, 7.2% higher than the beginning of the year, and 10.33% higher than the same period last year. Shanghai copper’s main early morning trading rose 52830 yuan and then fell back to close at 52410 yuan, up 1.04%. LME copper’s 3-month contract rose slightly to US $6601.5 and then fell back. As of the Asian market closing, LME copper closed at US $6572, up 0.14%.

Overnight, the European Union recovery fund reached an agreement, and the United States considered launching a new round of stimulus package. The market’s confidence in the expected economic recovery was boosted, most commodities rose, and copper prices rebounded slightly. The supply disturbance at the mine end is still continuing, and domestic inventory is accumulating, but the overseas inventory is continuing to decline. In June, the operating rate of refined copper rod-making enterprises was 78.66%, with a month on month decrease of 1.70 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 3.01 percentage points. In April, the concentrated effect of order concentration continued to weaken in May and June, while the stock orders of enterprises decreased. The order of refined copper rod is obviously impacted by scrap copper rod, and the operating rate of 7 refined copper rod making enterprises is expected to further drop to 76.79%. The current market into the off-season, downstream orders continue to decline, the average operating rate of processing enterprises is still not high, downstream demand is relatively low.

In view of the above situation, since the outbreak of the epidemic in South America, the market has had certain concerns about the supply of copper and supported the copper price. July and August are the off-season of consumption in the downstream, and orders show signs of weakening. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

Business agency data monitoring showed that the average domestic spot price of gold on the 22nd was 410.25 yuan / g, an increase of 2.41% compared with 399.75 yuan / G on the 21st; compared with 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01), it was 19.77% higher; compared with the valley value (3.19), the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 23.66%.

On the 22nd, the spot price of domestic silver was 5110 yuan / kg, an increase of 9.55% compared with the spot price of 4371.67 yuan / kg on the 21st; compared with the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01), 4281.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 16.67%; compared with the valley value (3.19) of the year, the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kg, up 73.65%.

Gold price hit a new 9-year high, silver price soared 9.55% in a single day, and the index stood at 58.28

According to the commodity index system of business club, the gold commodity index on July 22 was 108.99, up 2.57 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, and 88.96% higher than the lowest point of 57.68 on August 2, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The domestic spot gold price hit a record high in nearly nine years. On the 22nd, Shanghai Gold Exchange quoted 411.13 yuan / g, up 9.6 yuan / g, or 2.39%, compared with 401.53 yuan / G on the 21st.

According to the commodity index system of business club, the silver commodity index on July 22 was 58.28, up 5.08 points compared with yesterday, 43.29% lower than 102.76 points (2011-09-06), and 73.66% higher than the lowest point of 33.56 points on March 19, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

After years of consolidation, the silver price broke through 5000 yuan / kg on the 22nd, and the silver commodity index stood at 58.28. On the 22nd, spot silver prices soared. Shanghai silver (15kg standard weight, 99.99% silver ingot) in Shanghai Gold Exchange quoted 5272 yuan / kg in the morning, 487 yuan / kg higher than 4785 yuan / kg on the afternoon of 21, up 10.18%.

Gold and silver prices tend to be the same, and the range of rise and fall is different

According to the data of the business agency, based on the gold and silver price on September 1, 2011, the price trend of domestic spot gold and silver in the past 10 years is generally similar, but the range of rise and fall is increasingly differentiated. After the expansion of the gold silver ratio, it has been running at a high level for a long time.

On the 22nd, the silver price soared, and the gold silver ratio was pushed down, which was lower than the previous period. After the spot silver price broke through the 5000 yuan mark, can the difference between the rise and fall of gold and silver continue to narrow?

1. Commonness: investment demand may continue to push up prices

In 2020, the spot price of precious metals will be deeply affected by investment demand. According to relevant data, in 2020, the holding of silver ETF will increase by 7500 tons, up by 35%. In the first half of 2020, the total scale of global gold ETFs (in tons) will increase by 25%. In the first half of 2020, the global total inflow will reach 734 tons, equivalent to 45% of global gold minerals in the first half of this year

In 2020, the demand for safe haven will be strong. Under the epidemic situation, the expectation of global monetary easing policy, the weakening of the US dollar, and the change of Sino US situation, the market demand for precious metal investment will surge. At the same time, the profit making effect under the expected convergence will push up the investment demand again.

The burning point of risk aversion in the near future:

（1） Central banks of various countries have frequent monetary easing policies, inflation expectations are rising, some countries have negative real interest rates and central banks’ balance sheets are expanding;

（2） The number of new coronavirus infections in overseas countries continued to increase, and the expectation of rapid economic recovery in some economies was dashed. Compared with the improvement of domestic economic trend in euro area and China, the structural weakening expectation of US dollar gradually forms;

（3） The situation between China and the United States is becoming increasingly tense. The US Department of Commerce announced on Monday that 11 Chinese companies would be included in the list of US economic entities, after two previous statements had listed 37 companies and entities; on July 13, 15, 17 and 21, US reconnaissance planes frequently entered the airspace of the South China Sea and south of Taiwan to provoke; on 21 July, the US side suddenly asked China to close its Consulate in Houston and unilaterally launched a political provocation against China.

This week, the impact factors of Sino US situation have been increasingly magnified. The United States is pressing China economically, militarily and politically. Geopolitics has triggered a surge in demand for safe haven.

2. Feature 1: industrial attribute superimposed price history bottom silver price rise is expected

Combined with historical price data, silver price trend generally follows gold, showing a certain monetary attribute; while the rise and fall range is greatly affected by the commodity price environment at that time, and the industrial attribute is highlighted.

Generally speaking, the price trend of gold and silver tends to be the same, but the sensitivity to external stimulus (geopolitics, monetary policy, investment demand, spot demand) is different. Risk aversion demand determines the basic price trend of silver, but the industrial use demand of silver plays a greater role in the rise and fall of silver price.

The industrial demand of silver accounts for about 50% of the total global demand of silver. The industrial application of silver, such as photovoltaic power generation (solar power generation), ethylene oxide and other aspects of the demand continues to expand. According to the silver association’s forecast, the amount of ethylene oxide used to manufacture solar panels, photovoltaic cells and plastics and chemicals will consume 120 million ounces of silver annually from 2016 to 2020, an increase of 32% over 2015. Among them, the use of silver in photovoltaic industry increased by 7% in 2019.

On the supply side, there is only about 2.8 billion ounces of recoverable silver in the world at present. According to the world silver survey report in 2019 issued by the world silver association, the global silver mine production decreased for the third consecutive year, and decreased by 2% in 2018 to 855.7 million ounces. In terms of silver stock, unlike the low consumption of precious metal gold, about half of the silver mined (27.2 billion ounces) is expected to have been consumed, destroyed or discarded. The recovery and supply of silver has been running at a low level for a long time.

Under the influence of overseas epidemic situation in 2020, the production capacity supply of Mexico, the main silver producing country, is expected to be low. Silver supply fundamentals are good, supporting the current price rise.

On the demand side, global silver demand reached a three-year high of more than 1 billion ounces in 2018, an increase of 4% over 2017. Domestic demand for silver will be bright in 2020. Photovoltaic industry and 5g commercialization will boost silver industry demand expectations. The world silver association predicts that the global photovoltaic industry’s demand for silver is expected to drop by 3% in 2020, from 98.7 million ounces to 96.1 million ounces; the demand for silver in 5g is about 7.5 million ounces. However, the overall supply and demand fundamentals are good based on the expected contraction of supply and demand.

Although the price of silver rose by 16.67% in the year and 73.65% in March as the benchmark price, the current spot price of silver is still low in the historical price, equivalent to 58.28% of the price on September 1, 2011. Compared with gold, the current price is 108.99% of the price on September 1, 2011. There is huge room for silver prices to rise.

2. Characteristic 2: associated 60% supply tends to be similar to non-ferrous metals (lead, zinc, copper)

Associated, only 28.29% of global mineral silver comes from primary mineral silver, and the rest 71.71% comes from lead-zinc ore (35.99%), copper ore (23.55%) and gold mine (11.79%). Nearly 60% of the supply of mineral silver is deeply bound up with the production capacity of non-ferrous metals (lead, zinc, copper).

The main supply side of silver (mineral silver) is closely related to the non-ferrous metal operating rate. The supply and demand factors of silver are closely related to lead, zinc and copper, and the bulk commodity attribute is strong.

Ye Jianjun, precious metals analyst at business club, believes that global monetary easing policy expectations (negative real interest rates in some countries, inflation of central bank balance sheets), expectation of structural weakening of US dollar, geopolitics (for example, the increasingly tense situation between China and the United States) and other factors led to the explosion of market risk aversion in 2020, which led to a surge in investment demand for precious metals, which directly promoted the price of precious metals in terms of funds The price of gold has reached a new 9-year high in a row, silver price has followed the rise, and the monetary attribute of precious metals has continued to dominate the price trend of precious metals. Silver, which is relatively undervalued in history, due to its obvious triple characteristics (monetary attribute, industrial attribute and associated / bulk commodity attribute), is not as obvious as other varieties in the early stage, and its investment enthusiasm is lower than that of gold, platinum, palladium and other precious metals. At present, low valuation and industrial attribute value are rediscovered by the market. In addition, the recent general rise of nonferrous metals plate has led to a bull market With a strong atmosphere, it is expected that the silver price will continue to follow the trend of gold price in the near future, and the range of rise and fall is more imaginative than that of gold.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 21, the average price of lithium iron phosphate for domestic power type high-grade products was 37000.00 yuan / ton. This week, the market of lithium iron phosphate remained stable, with increased orders, limited demand and stable price.

The market price range of lithium iron phosphate power type is 34500-37000 yuan / ton, with stable price and balanced supply and demand. According to China battery network, in addition to Tesla and BYD, there are many well-known domestic hot brand electric vehicle models carrying lithium iron phosphate battery 330 batches) show that there have been A-class models that have replaced the original ternary lithium batteries with lithium iron phosphate batteries. The emergence of lithium iron phosphate in class A and b new energy sources and passenger cars means that lithium iron phosphate batteries have played an irreplaceable role in power batteries and are widely recognized by the public. In the future development, the market of lithium iron phosphate batteries will be more and more broad, and the current energy storage type The price range of LiFePO4 is 28000-33000 yuan / ton, and the average price is about 30000 yuan / ton. The quotation of Li iron phosphate enterprises is 37000 yuan / ton of Guangdong Optical Technology Co., Ltd., 37000 yuan / ton of Foshan Defang Nano Technology Co., Ltd., and 37000 yuan / ton of beiteri new energy materials Co., Ltd.

The overall operation of upstream lithium carbonate is stable. At present, the mainstream price range of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 33000-37000 yuan / ton, with a slight increase. The mainstream price range of battery grade lithium carbonate is 39000-41000 yuan / ton, and the price remains stable.

On July 20, the chemical index was 658 points, unchanged with yesterday, 35.24% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 10.03% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business Club lithium iron phosphate analysts believe: lithium iron phosphate market prices remain stable in the short term, just need to purchase. (the above prices are provided by major lithium iron phosphate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business lithium iron phosphate analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)