According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 31, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 16600 yuan / ton, which was 933 yuan / ton or 5.32% lower than that on July 1. The maximum amplitude was 9.51% from July 1 to 31.

In July, silicone DMC market showed a “V” trend

Since the beginning of July, the downstream demand of silicone DMC was not clear, the follow-up was slow, and the driving force of market rise was insufficient. Most monomer manufacturers focused on stabilizing the price. During the period, some manufacturers adjusted the DMC factory quotation to stimulate market fluctuations. With the arrival of rainy season, the demand for silicone oil and silica gel in downstream has been continuously reduced, and the market of silicone DMC in off-season appears. After several days of supply and demand deadlock, on July 13, the market of silicone DMC dropped slightly. Most monomer enterprises offered profits to ship and reduced the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC by 300-800 yuan / ton. The average reference price of DMC factory fell below 17000 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the market of silicone DMC fell all the way. Downstream demand continues to weaken, silicone oil silicone shipment is not smooth, transactions are cold, the market trend is mainly collated and operated in a horizontal direction, the industry’s resistance to high price silicone DMC is aggravated, and the mood of wait-and-see is strong. As of July 25, the average price of silicone DMC has fallen below 16000 yuan / ton, with reference to 15866 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on the first day of the month, the price of silicone DMC has dropped by nearly 1700 yuan / ton, or 9.51%, with the low-end price falling to 15200 yuan / ton.

At the end of July, the silicone DMC market turned around after a sharp decline. Since the 26th, most monomer manufacturers have successively raised the DMC ex factory quotation by 300-700 yuan / T, and some previous low-end quotations have increased by 1100 yuan / T. during the period, some monomer manufacturers have adjusted the DMC ex factory price twice. As of July 31, the average ex factory price of silicone DMC was 16600 yuan / ton, which was 730 yuan / ton higher than that on July 25, and 4.62% higher than that on July 1. Compared with the price on July 1, the price decreased by 933 yuan / ton or 5.32%.

According to the business agency, the following is the DMC price and the start-up situation of some domestic silicone enterprises (for reference only)

Remarks on the total capacity, price and operation of the plant

Zhejiang Xin’an Chemical Co., Ltd. runs 340000 T / a 17000 yuan / T unit smoothly, and purified water is delivered to

Inner Mongolia hengyecheng 240000 T / a 16500 yuan / T plant starts to operate, about eight floors of purified water are accepted and delivered

Zhejiang Zhongtian 120000 T / a 16800 yuan / T unit operates smoothly with tax included in purified water

150000t / a 16500 yuan / T plant in Jinling, Shandong

Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd., 80000 tons / year, 16200 yuan / ton, normal operation of the plant, and cash delivery of purified water

Inner Mongolia hengyecheng 240000 / T 17000 yuan / T unit normal operation, purified water tax included

Upstream, in July, the overall metal silicon market rose, up 4.13%. At the end of the month, the social inventory of silicon metal is relatively stable, the low-grade silicon stock is not much, and the spot is relatively tight. Some silicon factories are willing to stand up for price, and the low-cost goods are reduced. The silicon factories in Yunnan are mainly engaged in the production of orders in the early stage, and a small number of new orders are newly opened. The manufacturers have strong bullish expectations. Affected by public events, Xinjiang is weak in supply and demand, and slightly lower in the short term At present, domestic traders and downstream customers purchase well, and the spot market is relatively tight. Considering the cost factors, the manufacturers have strong willingness to support the price, and the silicon price is expected to be strong in the future.

In the downstream sector, at the end of July, driven by the rise of silicone DMC market, the price of silicone oil and silica gel also rose. At present, the sales of 107 glue were improved compared with the previous period, and the inventory pressure was reduced. The profit of the stock preparation operators increased after this round of price increase. It remains to be seen whether the good trend can be maintained under the sustained high price of the market in the later stage, which is closely related to the upstream raw material price.

Organic silicon DMC rises and falls too fast, the downstream wait-and-see mood remains unchanged

In July, the market of organosilicon DMC rose and fell rapidly, and there were constant shocks. In the face of the current trend, the downstream enterprises were more cautious in hoarding goods, and the market transactions were general. In addition, the planned maintenance of monomer units in August was less, and the overall operation was high. Therefore, the power of silicone DMC market in the future market was slightly insufficient. It was not ruled out that the quotation of a few factories rebounded and fell again. But on the whole, silicone DMC market rebounded from the bottom at the end of July, which gave certain support to the market in August, and the overall market was slightly optimistic compared with the previous period.

Trend analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the cobalt price has risen sharply since the end of July, and the cobalt price continued to rise sharply in August. As of August 4, the average price of cobalt was 284833.34 yuan / ton, up 15.40% from the average price of 246833.33 yuan / ton on July 20, and 16.89% higher than the average price of 2243666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of July (July 1). Since the late July, the price of cobalt has soared, and the rising trend has continued in August, and the cobalt price has broken through the 300000 yuan / ton mark again on August 4.

The outbreak in Africa

 
According to the statistics of the African Center for Disease Control and prevention, as of 12:00, August 3, Eastern African time, the cumulative number of new coronal confirmed cases in Africa approached the million mark, reaching 957035. According to the data released by the Ministry of health of South Africa, as of August 3, the total number of confirmed cases in South Africa has reached 516862, ranking the fifth in the world. The outbreak of the epidemic in Africa has increased the supply risk of cobalt ore, and the cobalt ore in the DRC is mostly transported through South Africa. The epidemic situation in South Africa will also affect the cobalt ore transportation, and the driving force of cobalt price rising in the future will be increased.

Market Overview

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, since the end of July, due to the impact of the epidemic risk in Africa, the supply of cobalt ore is expected to decline, which is beneficial to the cobalt market, and the cobalt price rises rapidly. The high cobalt price in August has broken through the 300000 yuan mark. From the perspective of supply and demand, the domestic demand market has gradually recovered, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have basically recovered to the same period in previous years, and the production and sales of domestic mobile phones have also greatly recovered. 5g mobile phones have increased significantly. Although the demand of cobalt market has declined compared with the same period of previous years, it has increased significantly compared with the cobalt Market during the epidemic period. The overall demand of cobalt market meets the market expectation, and the cobalt market has obvious advantages The growth of energy vehicles is obvious, and the demand for cobalt market is increasing. However, the global mobile phone market is cold and the demand for cobalt market is bleak. The overall global demand for cobalt market has declined significantly, which puts a negative pressure on the cobalt market. In terms of supply, with the resumption of work and production in Africa, the outbreak again affected the supply and transportation of cobalt ore in the future market, and greatly stimulated the rise of cobalt price. However, it is not clear at this stage how much impact the epidemic situation has on the resumption of production in African countries. The supply risk of cobalt ore in the aftermarket is uncertain, and the logic of cobalt supply reduction supporting cobalt price cannot be satisfied. The support uncertainty of future cobalt price rise is large, and the risk of future cobalt market remains. More attention should be paid to the epidemic situation in Africa and the response measures of various countries to the epidemic situation, which may determine the future trend of cobalt price.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China on July 31 was 636.67 yuan / ton, which was 2.55% lower than 653.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 25.97% lower than that of last year.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the overall sulfur market was weak, and the price trend slightly increased at the end of the month. Domestic sulfur market performance is not warm and tepid, downstream factories and traders are not enthusiastic to purchase in the market, follow-up is insufficient, demand is limited, port inventory is high, consumption is slow, lack of substantive information guidance in internal and external markets, and buyers and sellers are mainly on the sideline. As of the 31st day, the quoted prices of solid sulfur and liquid sulfur in East China were 630-700 yuan / ton and 560-680 yuan / ton respectively in East China, 550-650 yuan / ton and 500-560 yuan / ton in North China, 640 yuan / T and 640-640 yuan / T in Shandong.

The downstream sulfuric acid market is running smoothly with limited market fluctuation and no obvious price adjustment. At present, some sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong are under operating, with small inventory and good demand. It is expected that the sulfuric acid market will have an upward trend in the future. The price of phosphate fertilizer market in the downstream is strong, the market is optimistic, and the orders to be issued by enterprises are sufficient. Driven by domestic and export demand, the market still has upward space.

3、 Future forecast

According to the sulfur analysts of the business club, the sulfur market is mainly stable for the time being, the port inventory is high, the downstream sulfuric acid is low and stable, and the sulfur demand is not well supported. However, the performance of the downstream phosphate fertilizer market is strong, and the domestic autumn market will come in the later stage, which may lead to the increase of sulfur demand. It is expected that the sulfur market will be sorted out and operated in the later stage, and the downstream market trend will be watched specifically.

The sulfur commodity index on August 4 was 37.86, up 2.93 points compared with yesterday, 63.54% lower than 103.84 points (2011-11-02), and 46.80% higher than the lowest point of 25.79 on February 24, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on August 4, the average price of sulfur production in East China was 690 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.38% in a single day. On Tuesday, domestic refineries adjusted their quotations according to their own shipment situation. Sinopec East China’s liquid sulfur price increased by 30-50 yuan / ton, and the quotation was 590-730 yuan / ton, and the solid sulfur quotation was temporarily stable; Sinopec North China’s quotation of solid and liquid sulfur was increased by 50 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of solid sulfur was 600-700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was 550-610 yuan / ton The price of solid-liquid synchronous sulfur was increased by 80 yuan / ton, solid sulfur was quoted at 720 yuan / ton, and liquid sulfur was quoted at 690-720 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: at present, the trend of the port market is strong, and the price of the seller will rise while the domestic market will follow the upward trend. However, there are more inquiries from downstream traders, and the trading mentality is still cautious. The buyer and the seller are deadlocked and the wait-and-see atmosphere is obvious. It is expected that the future market will run smoothly and steadily.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic caprolactam price fell sharply this month. The average ex factory price of caprolactam on July 1 was 10400 yuan / ton, and that on July 31 was 9566 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.01%. The highest price in the month is 10400 yuan / ton, and the lowest price is 9533 yuan / ton.

On July 31, caprolactam commodity index was 48.12, unchanged with yesterday, down 51.88% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and 22.13% higher than the lowest point of 39.40 on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to March 1, 2017 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam fell in the first and middle of July due to the continuous decline of raw material prices and limited cost support. Sufficient supply, poor downstream demand, the overall market is weak. In late July, the price of raw materials rose, with strong support from the cost side. However, the downstream demand is weak and the overall pressure bearing phenomenon is still in place. As of July 31, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9000 yuan / T, and the factory has a production capacity of 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be discussed. Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price 10000 yuan / T, 400000 tons / year of the plant normal operation, caprolactam unit normal operation. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price 9800 yuan / T, 450000 tons / year, the plant was normally started, accepted and delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 9800 yuan / ton, and the 300000 tons / year unit is normally started and accepted.

The listed price of raw material pure benzene was 2950-3400 yuan / ton this month, and the price rose 210 yuan / ton this month, up 6.65% this month. In July, the price of pure benzene fluctuated in the first ten days and the middle ten days, and the price rose sharply in the last ten days. Sinopec lowered the listing price of pure benzene at the beginning of this month, and increased the listing price three times in the last ten days, with a total increase of 50 yuan / ton to 3350 yuan / ton this month. At the beginning of the month, the weak market continued in June, the downstream demand was insufficient to follow up, and the port inventory remained high; coupled with the unknown public health events, the spot transaction in the market was light, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. In the last ten days, the external price rebounded obviously, and the enterprises made up the short at the end of the month, and the pressure of delivery was released rapidly, and the price rose sharply.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that in the near future, the price of raw material pure benzene has continued to rise, the cost side is favorable, the support is strong, and the falling space is limited. The performance of downstream demand is not good, and will continue to be under pressure in the short term. It is expected that caprolactam market will rise steadily after finishing weak in August.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market was stable in July, and the range of rise and fall of various models of products was relatively narrow. As of July 31, the average price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding mainstream offer was about 18800.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.53% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

PA66 upstream adipic acid prices in July continued the trend of last month, the market is not surprising, spot prices for the whole month narrow adjustment. Adipic acid prices fell slightly in July, but fell only 1.78% in the whole month, according to business agency data. The price of dealers fluctuated between 100-200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of adipic acid in East China was generally 6500-6800 yuan / ton as of July 31. On the cost side, crude oil continued to consolidate at the US $40 level, which gradually weakened the downstream impact. Pure benzene, the direct upstream product of adipic acid, rebounded significantly in July, but it was mainly concentrated at the end of the month. At present, the downstream adipic acid did not rise due to the hysteresis of cost transmission. And at present, pure benzene is still at a relatively low level, which does not bring fundamental benefits to adipic acid, but the rising cost has squeezed the downstream profit space. In terms of supply and demand, the operating rate of enterprises remained high in July, basically above 80%. The supply of goods is sufficient, and the pressure of manufacturers’ inventory is high. And the shipping strength is not good. At present, most of the dealers have returned to normal picking up goods, but the downstream demand is affected by the weakening domestic demand and the suppression of overseas epidemic situation. The dealers are still relatively cautious in taking delivery of goods, and some dealers purchase according to the order, rather than inventory operation. At present, the weak market of adipic acid is mainly affected by the supply and demand, and the weak demand is still the main reason for the adipic acid market to get out of the haze. In terms of future market, the Business Association believes that the current oil price is narrow, pure benzene is hovering at a low level, the cost side has not changed greatly, the recovery trend of the chemical industry has been restrained to a certain extent, and the fundamentals are mainly empty. More importantly, the demand side still can not see any good, it is expected that in the current context of supply and demand is not prosperous, there is still a breakthrough in the near future.

The cost of PA66 is generally supported by adipic acid from upstream. Last month, the spot circulation of PA66 was less and the supply was weaker. In July, the spot supply was partly improved, but the on-site supply was still at a low level. According to reports, this month the domestic chip plant operating rate continued to run at low load. Among them, Liaoyang Xingjia stopped production, only half of Huafeng Group’s units started operation, and Dandong youfiber Technology Co., Ltd. also shut down half of the units. Shenma industry has a relatively high operating rate of about 80%. At the same time, it also reflects the lack of confidence in the future market, with a low level of operating rate to divert excess supply pressure and stabilize the spot price of PA66. In July, the price of PA66 fluctuated in a narrow range, the resistance of merchants to shipment is still in place, and the actual trading is still less. Downstream factories purchase more scattered, take as you use, more resistant to high price goods, transaction improvement is limited.

Business agency analysts believe: July domestic PA66 market narrow shock adjustment. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is low, which can not support the cost of PA66. Weak downstream demand, slow follow-up, conflict with high price goods, the domestic chip mill control the operating rate to reduce the pressure of excess supply. At present, the situation of insufficient supply and actual trading is coexisting, which reflects that the domestic market is actually in a post supply and demand contradiction. It is expected that the PA66 market will continue to operate smoothly in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

On August 3, spot copper decreased slightly, and the current price was 50931.67 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 1.84% compared with the previous trading day, a rise of 3.87% over the beginning of the year, and a year-on-year increase of 9.62%. LME copper’s 3-month contract rebounded after falling $6301 at the opening, and closed at $6385.5, up 0.12%. Shanghai copper’s main contract quickly dived to 50210 yuan in the early morning, then stabilized and rebounded. In the end, it narrowed down to 51050 yuan, or 1.49%.

Affected by Sino US relations last Friday, the nonferrous metals plate made a comprehensive adjustment. The accumulation of stocks in the domestic market in the off-season began, and the pattern of monthly difference correction was gradually adjusted. The registered warehouse receipts of LME copper market dropped to a low level, and the domestic Guangdong stock rose sharply again, approaching the 50000 mark and reaching the highest level in the same period in history. The imported copper is favored by the market due to its sufficient supply and low price. August into the consumption off-season, downstream orders decreased significantly, consumer buying is difficult to lead. However, some copper rod factories finished maintenance, and this part of the demand rebounded.

In view of the above situation, the economic recovery is expected to help boost market sentiment. As Chile and other major producers are still seriously affected by the epidemic, the market is still worried about the supply situation in the second half of the year. However, the consumption in August is affected by the off-season, and it is expected that the short-term high-level copper level will fluctuate.

1、 Price trend

The average price of TDI market in East China on March 3 was 11833.33 yuan / ton, up 5.97% compared with yesterday and 16.47% lower than last year, according to the data from the bulk list of business associations. On August 3, the TDI commodity index was 62.61, up 3.53 points compared with yesterday, 74.76% lower than 248.02 points (2016-10-19), and 19.12% higher than 52.56 points, the lowest point on May 5, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Last week, suppliers intensively released good news. Under the export increment, the on-site supply was tight, and the factory supply was tight. The domestic TDI market hit the bottom and rebounded, and the on-site rise was obvious. The weekly guidance price was greatly increased. Most dealers followed the factory’s offer and reached a high level. On August 3, the dealer’s price increased by 500-1000 yuan / ton. At present, the East China market is on the rise in a narrow range, and the manufacturers are making more offers at a high level. The downstream companies are mainly waiting for follow-up. As of the 3rd day, the reference for outbound offer of domestic goods with bill of lading in East China is 11500-12300 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai is 11800-12500 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the market situation of toluene rebounded slightly. Affected by the lower demand for blended oil and solvent in the downstream, the demand for toluene declined, the trading atmosphere was not active, the port inventory remained high, and the progress of destocking was slow. The overall digestion of early inventory was dominated, the market trading atmosphere was weak, and a small amount of just needed replenishment. Considering the impact of economic recovery on crude oil demand and the trend of international crude oil, in the later stage The domestic toluene market may fluctuate slightly.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the Data Engineer of the business agency, at present, the domestic TDI market is in a strong trend, the market supply is tight, the manufacturer’s offer is high, the dealers also follow the factory’s quotation, and the supplier is supported by good news. It is expected that the domestic TDI market will continue to rise in the future, and pay attention to the policy guidance of the city’s factories.

Commodity index: on July 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 82.89, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new historical low in the cycle, which was 22.63% lower than the highest point of 107.13 on May 8, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Price quotation: data shows that polyacrylamide in July showed a slight downward trend compared with the market at the end of June. In the first half of the month, many companies cut prices, but the overall range is not very large; in the second half of the month, the number of enterprises that adjust prices is smaller, but the adjustment of single enterprise is greater, which is different from the first half of the month. On July 1, 2020, the mainstream market quotation was 13960 yuan / ton, which was about 60 yuan / ton lower than the average price of 14020 yuan / ton on June 30. On the 14th of this month, it was about 13920 yuan / ton, and it was about 40 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of this month. In the first half of this month, it was slightly reduced by 0.29%, but by 0.71% compared with the end of last month. In the second half of the month, 13600 yuan / ton was quoted on 16th, and 13566.67 yuan / ton was quoted on 31st, with a very small reduction in half a month Less than 1%.

Factor analysis:

First of all, from the perspective of industrial chain. Upstream acrylonitrile: from January to June 2020, the domestic market price will drop sharply first, and then it will continue to adjust to a certain extent. Since the second half of April, it stopped falling at 6350 yuan / ton. After stabilizing for half a month, it started to rebound from May. The half month quotation went up by 800 yuan / ton to 7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in the second half of the month was about 8000 yuan / ton. In June, it was stable at around 8550 yuan / ton in the middle of June, and continued to rise in the last ten days, with the highest value reaching about 8800-8900 yuan / ton, and then it was adjusted back to 8400 yuan / ton at the end of the month. In July, the price of acrylonitrile continued to fall. On the 13th, the price of acrylonitrile had dropped by about 1100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation had fallen to 7300 yuan / ton. In the second half of the month, the price continued to rise, especially at the end of the month, which was 7600 yuan / ton on the 31st daily. Among them, Fushun Petrochemical’s 92000 T / a acrylonitrile was shut down for maintenance on July 23, and resumed on July 28, with 80% of the start-up maintenance. 2. The 130000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Shandong Haijiang Chemical Co., Ltd. is planned to shut down at the beginning of August, or last for about one month. Shanghai Secco acrylonitrile plant plans to overhaul a production line in late August, with an estimated loss of about 3000 tons. The acrylonitrile plant in srbon was shut down on July 16 and is expected to restart before and after August 5. Asahi Asahi’s Far East contract proposal price in August implemented $1090 / T CFR, down $50 / T from last month.. Downstream demand: the demand for polyacrylamide has not improved greatly this year, and the manufacturers have great sales pressure. Due to the comprehensive influence of demand and cost, the prices of several polyacrylamide manufacturers have been reduced slightly from month to month.

Secondly, the manufacturer production angle. According to the survey, Henan Province, one of the main producing areas of polyacrylamide, has normal production and high inventory. On July 1, many manufacturers lowered the price of main specification products. Although the range was small, the number of price adjustment was more. In the first half of the month, some manufacturers had a second small reduction. Some manufacturers’ prices remained stable, and the number of price adjustments in the second half of the month was reduced, but some enterprises’ price adjustments were larger, But it is because of the sales strategy that is adjusted down and back. Current price: cationic: molecular weight 12 million (10-30 ionic degree), 13000-15000 yuan / ton; anion: molecular weight 10 million yuan / ton, 6800-9600 yuan / ton, molecular weight 12 million yuan / ton, molecular weight 14 million yuan / ton, solid particles 9000-11500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 16 million solid particles 9600-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 18 million solid particles 10400-11000 yuan / ton, The molecular weight of 18-20 million powdery products is 12000-12500 yuan / ton; non-ionic: about 12000-13000 yuan / ton; in general, manufacturers generally lower the lowest price by about 100-200 yuan / ton, and the overall reduction range is different. Some specifications of some manufacturers have been reduced by 1000 yuan / ton. The sales pressure of enterprise production and distribution manufacturers is huge, which is helpless for the current situation, and the price downward space is very small.

Thirdly, industry perspective. Since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products in line with the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determines the price and cost, which has different impact on the production cost. As far as the whole industry is concerned, the cost reduction and the demand for The difference is to determine the market trend, this month the market is still weak in stability.

Future forecast:

According to the analysis of the business agency, the cost has risen first and then up, and the demand side has not improved greatly. In the second half of the year, the development of water treatment industry is difficult, and the future market is still mainly stable, with small flexible adjustment. With the economic situation in the third quarter expected to be better, the recovery of water treatment industry demand can also be expected.

Commodity index: on July 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 82.89, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new historical low in the cycle, which was 22.63% lower than the highest point of 107.13 on May 8, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

The data showed that polyacrylamide decreased slightly in the last week of July. In the first half of the month, many companies cut prices, the overall range is not very large; in the second half of the month, the number of price adjustment enterprises is less, but the adjustment of single enterprise is greater. On July 27, 2020, the mainstream market quotation was 13600 yuan / ton, and on July 31, it was 13566.67 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease of 0.25% this week. Domestic mainstream quotation: cationic: molecular weight 12 million (10-30 ionic degree) quotation 13000-15000 yuan / ton; anion: molecular weight 10 million yuan / ton 6800-9600 yuan / ton, molecular weight 12 million yuan 7800-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 14 million solid particles 9000-11500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 16 million solid particles 9600-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 18 million solid particles 10400-11000 yuan/ Tons, molecular weight 18-20 million, powdery offer 12000-12500 yuan / ton; non-ionic: about 12000-13000 yuan / ton.

The price of upstream acrylonitrile has been raised by 50-100 yuan / ton for consecutive days this week, especially in the last few days of the month. The price of acrylonitrile in the 31 daily report increased by about 300 yuan / ton at 7600 yuan / ton. Plant performance: Fushun Petrochemical’s 92000 T / a acrylonitrile was shut down for maintenance on July 23, and restarted on July 28, with 80% of the plant operating. 2. The 130000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Shandong Haijiang Chemical Co., Ltd. is planned to shut down at the beginning of August, or last for about one month. Shanghai Secco acrylonitrile plant plans to overhaul a production line in late August, with an estimated loss of about 3000 tons. The acrylonitrile plant in srbon was shut down on July 16 and is expected to restart before and after August 5. Asahi Asahi’s Far East contract proposal price in August implemented $1090 / T CFR, down $50 / T from last month.. In terms of downstream demand, the demand for polyacrylamide has not improved, and the boosting effect on the price has not appeared.

From the perspective of industry, since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products in line with the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determines the price and cost, which has different impact on the production cost. As far as the whole industry is concerned, the cost reduction and the demand for The difference is to determine the market trend, this month the market is still weak in stability.

In terms of the future market, the analysis by the business agency shows that the cost of polyacrylamide has been up first and then up, and the demand side has not improved greatly. In the second half of the year, the development of water treatment industry is difficult, and the future market is still mainly stable with small flexible adjustment. In the third quarter, the economic situation is expected to be better, and the demand for polyacrylamide is improved, the price may become stronger, but at present, it is still a little far away.