According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the overall market price of polyester filament showed an upward trend in August, among which the most obvious increase was polyester POY. As of August 28, the average market price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) was 5314 yuan / ton, up 3.84% compared with the beginning of the month, and decreased by 31.40% year-on-year.
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Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market in August, unit: yuan / ton
Products up and down from August 20, 2020 to August 28, 2020
Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5117 5314 3.84% – 31.40%
Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5656 5815 2.80% – 27.13%
Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 6657 6732 1.13% – 26.61%
In August, due to the rising international crude oil price, raw material PTA operating rate decline, and good cost, polyester prices rose. However, due to the low-season demand, the inventory pressure increased. In the middle of the year, the mainstream large polyester filament manufacturers began to promote their sales, and the downstream and traders took advantage of low prices to make up their positions. According to statistics, up to now, the average production and sales of mainstream large factories are 40% – 60%, and the production and sales of some promotional factories can reach 200%, and the inventory pressure of factories is slightly relieved. The overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 33-41 days, among which POY inventory is 11-17 days, FDY inventory is around 22-33 days, and DTY inventory is about 30-41 days.
Recent changes of PTA plant in China
Production enterprise unit capacity (10000 tons / year) unit operation status
Huabin Petrochemical 140 starts to reduce the load by 50% on August 25, 2020, with a plan of about 15 days
Yangzi Petrochemical 65 will be overhauled on August 6, 2020, restarted on August 21, and discharged on August 22
Hailun Petrochemical 120: August 2, 2020, overhaul for 1 month
Ningbo Taihua 120 will be overhauled on August 3, 2020, restarted on August 20, and qualified products will be produced on August 22
Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will stop short in the evening of August 24, 2020, and heat up and feed on August 27, 2020, and qualified products have been produced
Livan polyester 70 will be shut down on April 30, 2020, to be restarted
Hanbang Petrochemical will stop for maintenance on May 9, 2020, and restart to be determined
220. The load will be reduced by 50% on August 6, 2020, and restored on August 7. The unit will be shut down for two days on August 27
Honggang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will stop short on August 10, 2020 and restart on August 17, 2020
Tianjin Petrochemical Company will shut down for maintenance on April 17, 2020, and restart to be determined
Luoyang Petrochemical Company will start maintenance for 27 days at the end of July 2020
Pengwei Petrochemical 90 will be shut down for maintenance on March 9, 2020, and restart to be determined
Fuhai Chuang 450 will reduce the load by about 70% on August 12, 2020, return to 90% on August 18, and full load on August 20
Jialong petrochemical company shut down for maintenance on August 2, 2019, restart time to be determined
PTA price in raw material market was adjusted by shock. As of August 28, the average market price was 3574 yuan / ton, up 0.1% compared with the beginning of the month, and decreased by 31.69% year on year. In August, PTA price has a significant impact on the supply side fluctuation. Since the beginning of the month, PTA plant began to be overhauled, mainly involving Ningbo Taihua, hailun petrochemical, Honggang petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, etc. at the same time, fuhaichuang and Huabin Petrochemical also successively reduced the load, and the operating load of PTA industry dropped to around 82% within the month. However, with the negative impact of the restart of Ningbo Taihua and Yangzi petrochemical plants, the price began to weaken. Near the end of the month, some PTA units stopped short, the production and sales of polyester plants recovered periodically, and the hurricane made a certain upward boost to crude oil. PTA rebounded slightly. However, the market’s worries about terminal demand did not fade, and under the pressure of PTA social inventory, it finally showed a weak state.
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At the end of the month, affected by the preferential promotion of raw materials, downstream textile enterprises appropriately replenished their goods on demand, and local transactions were hot. At the same time, with the coming of the “golden nine silver ten” textile sales season, the overall orders of traditional textile market have increased significantly in recent years. The listed varieties of garment lining and bag lining auxiliary materials with polyester filament as the main raw material in the traditional market of China Light and textile city have increased, the number of fabric proofing in autumn and winter continues to increase slightly, and the number of orders increased. Domestic trade orders and foreign trade orders have improved. In terms of foreign trade orders, orders from Europe and the Middle East still account for a relatively large proportion. Textile market ushered in a period of warming market, loom operating load increased to 65%. The production of China’s textile industry recovered steadily, and the decline rate narrowed month by month. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to July, the industrial added value of textile industry above Designated Size in China decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points lower than that in January June.
From the perspective of textile and clothing retail, the total retail sales of textile and clothing reached 88.9 billion yuan in July, down 2.5% compared with the same period last year. From January to July, China’s total retail sales of textile and clothing exceeded 595.9 billion yuan, down 17.5% year-on-year. In terms of export, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in July 2020, China’s textile and clothing export volume was 31.294 billion US dollars, a month on month increase of 7.79%. Among them, the export volume of textiles (including textile yarn, fabrics and products) was 15.976.9 billion US dollars, down 1.11% month on month; the export volume of clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) was 15.3175 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.97% on a month on month basis. From January to July, China’s textile and clothing exports amounted to 156.482 billion US dollars, an increase of 5.57% over the same period of last year, of which the cumulative export of textiles was US $90.080.4 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 31.25%; and that of clothing was 66.402 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 16.58%.
Xia Ting, an analyst at the business club, believes that whether the demand side continues to pick up remains to be seen. At present, the loom operating load is at a low point in the same period in recent years, and the grey cloth inventory in Shengze area of Jiangsu Province is still at a historical high of about 45 days. At the same time, the textile enterprises at the end of the industrial chain are affected by the high inventory of finished products and the prolonged sales collection cycle, resulting in increased capital pressure. In addition, the export resistance of textile and clothing in overseas market is larger. In the short term, the periodic recovery of the current demand side will boost the confidence of the textile market. With the advent of the “golden nine silver decade”, it will be further improved. Therefore, the price of polyester filament in September is likely to remain volatile and upward.
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