Commodity index: on July 13, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride was 93.92, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new historical low in the cycle, down 13.84% from the highest point of 109.01 on August 28, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the data, polyaluminum chloride in the first ten days of July 2020 showed a slight fluctuation trend. This month, domestic manufacturers’ price adjustment was more frequent than that in the first half of the year, the market was light, and the downward pressure was great; for polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28%, the mainstream quotation was about 1762 yuan / ton on the first day of this month, and about 1737 yuan / ton on the 13th, with a price drop of 1.42%. At present, the price range of polyaluminium chloride monitored by the trade organization is generally quoted: liquid: industrial grade, content 10%-12%) quoted price is 400 yuan / ton; solid: industrial grade, content 20-21% quoted price 770-860 yuan / ton, content 24% quoted price 1200 yuan / ton, content 28% price 1450-1550 yuan / ton, content is more than 30%, price 1500-1600 yuan / ton, plate and frame type: 28% yuan, price 1500-1550 yuan / ton; spray type: content is more than 30%. The quotation is 1800-1850 yuan / ton; drinking water level: 1700 yuan / ton if the content is more than or equal to 28%; food grade: about 2800 yuan / ton if the content is 30%. In the first half of July, the price of various specifications of polyaluminum chloride was reduced by about 50 yuan / ton, and the demand and transaction atmosphere did not improve much. The manufacturers lowered the price once a day, and then generally once again, but each time the price was relatively small.

According to the data of the business agency, the mainstream ex factory price of hydrochloric acid in North China fluctuated and decreased in July and rose slightly at the end of the month. On July 1, 312 yuan / ton, and on July 6, the mixed price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong increased by 38.50 yuan / ton, or 12%, compared with the quotation on March 3. 355 yuan / ton was quoted on the 13th. The actual transaction price of manufacturers is subject to negotiation. From the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is general, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is normal, and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak. The low-level consolidation of the downstream silica market has a negative impact on hydrochloric acid, while the high-level consolidation of the downstream ammonium chloride market has a certain support for the price of hydrochloric acid. This week, the overall hydrochloric acid market seems to have fallen slightly, and the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a major problem. Downstream: according to the manufacturer, the market of polyaluminum chloride did not improve greatly in 2020. In July, the market was still in general, and the price did not rise, but there were several small decreases.

As far as the whole industry is concerned, from 2020 to now, during the Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in the main production areas have stopped production and delayed to resume work; after February 20, manufacturers in main production areas have successively resumed their work and production; in March, logistics has gradually recovered, and transportation costs have returned to normal; in April, the overall production is normal, some enterprises still have high inventory due to difficulties in delivery, and the output is affected; in May, polyaluminum chloride (PACl) has entered The overall demand has not recovered, the market situation is poor, the shipment is general, and the transaction continues to be weak; in June, the raw materials changed little, and the natural gas used for drying rebounded by about 1% from the bottom this month, and then turned down, with a slight drop of about 0.25% this month, which has little impact on the market. The downstream demand of polyaluminum chloride is still weak, which is the industrial environment of water treatment, and the overall situation in the first half of the year has not changed much. In July, under the influence of the weak environment, the market demand is not good, the market of polyaluminum will inevitably continue to be weak, and the sales pressure is great. The small price reduction is more obvious in the first half of this month.

With regard to the future market, the business agency analyzed that the water treatment industry had slightly reduced the price since the beginning of the month, but the overall reduction rate is not large, but the frequency is more than that in the previous few months. Under the light industrial environment, the trend of polyaluminum chloride will not change much, but the overall price reduction will not be particularly large. For raw materials in this month, some manufacturers reported that the price changes of calcium powder and hydrochloric acid are obvious, which has a significant impact on the manufacturers purchasing this month, but has little impact on the manufacturers with stock. The downstream demand is the biggest influencing factor, and if the demand atmosphere does not change, the market will be difficult to improve. For the future market, the price stability is still the main line, and a small reduction may still be more frequent.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fell slightly this week, with the weekly high price of 6782 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the weekly low price of 6728 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly decline of 0.79%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, with a relatively stable price range. Since the beginning of July, the price has been continuously reduced by 200 ~ 250 yuan / ton. From 6 to 9, the price has been adjusted back by about 250 yuan / ton. On October 10 and 11, the price has been roughly flat. Since the 12th, the price has declined twice. Now, the total price has dropped 150 ~ 200 yuan / ton. Today, most of them are stable, some enterprises have a slight downward trend, and some enterprises have made a correction. The market transaction is still between 6670 ~ 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6700 yuan / ton. There is a certain pressure on propylene manufacturers to ship.

On July 16, crude oil prices fell slightly, with limited impact on propylene.

Recently, PP futures market was weak, spot price fell by 1.24% over the weekend, which may have a little negative impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid market slightly down this week, the weekly decline of 0.46%, little impact on propylene.

Propylene oxide market this week to maintain stability, no impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin price rose after a small fall this week, with a weekly increase of 1.36% and a weekly amplitude of 2.40%, which had a slight positive impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic price of n-butanol declined steadily, with a weekly decline of 3.75%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

This week octanol market shocks downward, the weekly decline of 1.41%, slightly negative impact on propylene.

This week, isopropanol market also fluctuated downward trend, with a weekly decline of 1.92%, which also had a slightly negative impact on propylene.

At the beginning of this week, the phenol in East China remained stable after a sharp decline, with a weekly decrease of 6.07%, which had a certain suppression effect on propylene.

East China acetone this week is similar to phenol, the beginning of the week fell sharply after holding steady, the weekly decline also has 4.65%, has a certain suppression effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: Generally speaking, there is a slight pressure on the inventory of propylene manufacturers, the crude oil price is general, the overall downstream market is stable or downward trend is more, although the operating rate is acceptable, but the purchasing enthusiasm is weak, and the market trading is cold. Moreover, the current propylene price is still far from the lower limit of the recent propylene shock range, so it is expected that the propylene price may start to stabilize in the near future, which does not rule out the possibility of another downward trend on weekends.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, since July, hydrogen peroxide has ended the soaring market in June and tried to rise at the beginning of the month, but the rising momentum is insufficient. After a short rise, it is stable, and then opens a weak downward channel. On July 3, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 1050 yuan / ton, which was 0.96% higher than the price at the beginning of the month. On July 16, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 1026 yuan / ton, which was 1.28% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January 2019 to June 2020, it can be seen that the price of hydrogen peroxide is rising from February to may in 2019. The price of hydrogen peroxide falls by more than 20% in June, and then it rises sharply in August. However, in the first five months of 2020, hydrogen peroxide rose by only 0.9% in January. It has been declining from February to may, with a decrease of more than 18% in February and a decrease of more than 10% in April. For four months in a row. In June, hydrogen peroxide hit the bottom and rebounded, ushering in a big rise, and the price rose by more than 30%.

Hydrogen peroxide in 2020 is more abnormal compared with that in 2019, which is mainly due to the limitation of hydrogen peroxide downstream terminal in 2020, terminal papermaking and printing, sluggish plate industry and weak market of caprolactam. In mid and late May, the terminal industry began to warm up. In June, the main enterprises of paper industry focused on the purchase of caprolactam, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to rise. Hydrogen peroxide also dropped by more than 20% in July 2019. In July 2020, hydrogen peroxide market also began to weaken.

Demand turns weak, hydrogen peroxide rises and falls

In July, the growth trend of hydrogen peroxide terminal paper industry gradually stabilized. In addition, the paper mills prepared more goods before, and the purchasing enthusiasm decreased. In addition, due to the weakness of raw materials, limited cost support and poor downstream demand, the market of caprolactam began to decline sharply. The average price of caprolactam has dropped to 9700 yuan / T, which is 6% lower than that at the beginning of the month. Under the influence of caprolactam drop, hydrogen peroxide price also followed the weak trend, and the price rise was weak and continued to fall. On July 17, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 1026 yuan / ton, which was more than 1% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business agency, believes that: the terminal caprolactam market is down, the paper market is stabilizing, the terminal market is weakening, and the price of hydrogen peroxide is still weak in the future.

According to the business agency data monitoring: this week, the price of lithium carbonate returned to stable, and the performance of spot transactions in the market was flat. On July 16, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39300 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, down 0.35% compared with July 1; on July 16, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44700 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week and increased by 1.13% compared with July 1. On the 16th, the mainstream quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 35500-45000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate was around 40500-48000 yuan / ton.

This week, the market price of lithium carbonate is relatively stable, and the spot transaction has not improved significantly. Some large factories sign long orders to ensure the shipment volume and cash flow. With the coming of the resumption of production and work in the downstream, the demand gradually improved, which also increased the consumption of lithium carbonate, and the price of lithium carbonate began to hit the bottom, showing signs of rebound. However, the lithium carbonate manufacturers are still in a wait-and-see state at present, and the upstream suppliers still expect to support the price. However, the downstream material factories are still cautious about the current price trend, and both sides maintain the game state.

At present, the downstream power and energy storage market increased greatly in August, while the bargaining power of LiFePO4 market was weak and the market competition was fierce. The price could only be increased with the raw material price. The market tends to wait on the price of raw materials, and the downstream demand only increases slightly, which is difficult to support the price rise of precursors and ternary materials.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on July 15, 2020, there were 7 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, with dichloromethane (2.36%), epichlorohydrin (1.71%) and ethanol (0.83%). There were 16 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products of decline were bisphenol A (- 8.34%), silicone DMC (- 2.17%), butanone (- 2.02%).

Lithium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that the price of lithium carbonate has been running smoothly in recent days, but the market has a little willingness to support the price, but the manufacturers are still in a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will still be in a volatile and stable operation in the short term, and the downstream bargaining power is still in place.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

In the first half of July, epichlorohydrin market price fluctuated, showing a downward trend as a whole. As of July 15, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 9900 yuan / ton, which was 5.11% lower than that on July 1 (10433.33 yuan / ton) and 8.05% lower than that on June 15, according to the data of the bulk list of business associations. In recent years, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated periodically. On the 15th, the price remained stable. The trading atmosphere of epichlorohydrin market was light, and the pressure of shippers to ship was not reduced. As the price continued to fall to the low level, the owner’s expectation of downstream inventory and replenishment demand weakened the low export intention. However, the enthusiasm of the downstream market was insufficient and the actual transaction was limited.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of epichlorohydrin of some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of merchants is subject to the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.)

Enterprise market price specification date

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. 9700 yuan / ton, excellent product; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-15

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 10500 yuan / T premium product; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-15

Shandong tashuo Chemical Co., Ltd. 10100 yuan / ton national standard barrel, 240kg / barrel, 2020-07-14

Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. 9700 yuan / ton, excellent product; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-14

Jinan planhua Chemical Co., Ltd. $9200 / T national standard 99.9-2020-07-13

Shandong michuan Chemical Co., Ltd. $9800 / T, excellent product; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-13

Aite (Shandong) new materials Co., Ltd. $9400 / T, excellent products; 99.9% Min: July 10, 2020

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. $9500 / T premium product; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-08

Shandong chuangying Chemical Co., Ltd. $11000 / T premium product; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-03

Jinan Yuanxiang Chemical Co., Ltd. 10800 yuan / ton national standard barrel, 240kg / barrel, 2020-07-03

Shandong Carlson Chemical Co., Ltd. 10200 yuan / ton national standard barrel, 240kg / barrel, 2020-07-02

Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. 9800 yuan / ton national standard barrel, 240kg / barrel, 2020-07-01

On July 15, the upstream propylene market in Shandong was generally stable. According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuated up and down periodically, with a relatively stable price range. Since the beginning of July, the price has been continuously reduced by 200-250 yuan / ton. From June 6 to 9, the price has been adjusted back by about 250 yuan / ton. On October 11, the price was roughly flat. Since the 12th, the price went down twice, and now it has dropped by 100-150 yuan / ton. Today, most of the prices are stable. The market transaction is between 6650 yuan / ton and the mainstream price is still around 6750 yuan / ton. The inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is not big, crude oil prices are slightly upward, the overall downstream market operating rate is general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak, the market transaction is cold, and there is still a distance from the lower limit of the recent propylene oscillation range. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will still have downward space in recent days, or will continue to decline, which has a negative impact on epichlorohydrin.

On July 15, the downstream epoxy resin was running in a weak position. Under the influence of the bad raw materials, the shippers were not stable, and they were mainly active in shipping, and the active offer was low-end, and the follow-up of terminal buying was limited.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of epichlorohydrin of the business agency, the price of propylene oxide fluctuates periodically in the near future. With the price of epichlorohydrin falling to a low level, the low price mentality of shippers has weakened. However, the downstream market is short of buying gas, and the actual order follow-up is limited. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will stabilize and wait-and-see operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA6 market weakened in the first half of July, and the interest of most brands was reduced. As of July 16, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 from traders was about 11433.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.28% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

PA6 upstream caprolactam this month before a change in the trend, the current overall market down. According to the data from the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of caprolactam on July 6 was 10333 yuan / ton, and that on July 10 was 9933 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream average price is about 9700 yuan / ton, which is 6.73% lower than the average price level at the beginning of the month. Crude oil has strong support for pure benzene in June, while caprolactam is supported at the bottom of the market. Near the end of June, the port inventory of pure benzene reached a high level, and the pick-up speed began to slow down. As a result, inventory pressure was difficult to release, and the inventory of Shandong local refining enterprises increased, and caprolactam weakened at the end of the month. In recent years, the price of raw materials continued to decline, the cost side support became worse, and the downward trend of caprolactam was still in. In addition, sufficient supply, poor downstream demand, the overall market is weak. Caprolactam prices are expected to continue to fall in the future.

In the first half of July, PA6 market was generally affected by the negative effect of upstream caprolactam, and the market price closely followed the decline. At the beginning of the month, the highest point was 12200.00 yuan / ton. Since then, the merchants have been actively shipping and offered to reduce their positions. However, in recent years, the follow-up improvement of downstream factories’ orders is limited, mainly on bargain hunting, and the strategy is biased towards rigid demand procurement. Weak demand and inventory, business bearish aftermarket, market mentality is not strong, general trading atmosphere.

3、 Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: in the first half of July, the domestic PA6 market fell, and the spot price of each brand was dominated by profit margin. The supply of caprolactam in the upstream recovered and the disk fell down, which weakened the support for the cost side of PA6. The demand of downstream slicing plants is weak, and the strategy of bargain hunting is the main strategy. The improvement of PA6 trading volume is limited, and businesses are generally short of the future market and sell profits and reduce positions. It is expected that PA6 market will continue the weak trend in the near future.

Recently, the price of dysprosium and terbium in the domestic rare earth market has fallen, the downstream purchasing is not active, and the downstream acceptance degree has declined, and the domestic heavy rare earth price has declined. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on July 14 was 345 points, unchanged with yesterday, 65.50% lower than 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 27.31% higher than 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of July 15, the price of dysprosium oxide in China’s rare earth has dropped by 25000 yuan / ton to 1845000 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy has dropped by 10000 yuan / ton to 1840000 yuan / ton, and the price of terbium oxide and metal terbium has decreased to varying degrees.

Recently, the domestic heavy rare earth prices have fallen down. In the early stage, the prices of dysprosium and terbium series have been climbing all the way. However, with the price rising to the high level within the year, the downstream acceptance degree has declined, and the wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the procurement is not active. The downstream on-demand procurement is mainly used, and the transaction is slightly difficult, and the price of dysprosium and terbium series has declined. Although the proportion of medium and heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan accounts for a large proportion of the annual production, it is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth. However, the situation of collection and storage is not clear. At present, Myanmar’s customs clearance still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earth. However, in the near future, the on-site inquiry has decreased and the price of heavy rare earth has fallen.

The Ministry of information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry. According to the notice, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for rare earth enterprises to apply for, and formed the “collection of supporting policies related to the resumption of work and production of rare earth industry”. The favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry. At the same time, Sino US relations are somewhat loose. The key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In recent years, the supply of rare earth market is normal, but the demand is not obviously good, and the market price of medium and heavy rare earth has dropped slightly.

In the near future, heavy rare earth downstream businesses mainly purchase on demand, and take a wait-and-see attitude towards high-priced products, and there are few transactions on the floor. Analysts from the business agency predict that the market price of heavy rare earth will fall slightly in the future.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA spot market price rose slightly on July 15, with the average price of 3580 yuan / ton on the spot market, up 0.53% compared with the previous trading day, and decreased by 44.90% year-on-year. The main futures (2009) in the futures market rose to close at 3606, up 12 or 0.33% from the previous trading day.

Production enterprise unit capacity (10000 tons / year) unit operation status

Ningbo Yisheng 220 postponed to mid July for 2-3 days

Jiaxing Petrochemical 220 stopped at night on July 12, and the restart time is to be determined

Livan polyester 70 was shut down on April 30 due to failure, and restart to be determined

Hanbang petrochemical company shut down for maintenance from May 9, 2006, and restart to be determined

Tianjin Petrochemical Company shut down for maintenance on April 17, 2004, and restart to be determined

Pengwei petrochemical company shut down for maintenance on March 9, 1990, and restart to be determined

Zhongtai Petrochemical Company 120 started feeding on July 1 and discharged on the evening of July 2. Now it is running at 95%

Among them, 1.25 million tons of which will be put into operation on June 28, 2020, will be produced on June 29, and its load will reach 90% on July 2. Another production line of 1.25 million tons was put into operation on the evening of July 11, and is now running at 85% load

Eason Hainan 200 delayed maintenance plan

Fuhai Chuang 450 was put into operation on July 9 with load reduction, which is planned to last for one week

Jialong petrochemical company shut down for maintenance on August 2, 2006, restart time to be determined

Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million T / a PTA plant was put into operation with reduced load on July 9 and maintained for one week. Jiaxing Petrochemical 2.2 million ton PTA plant was shut down at night on July 12. It is planned to overhaul for about 2 weeks. Due to failure, the restart time is still to be determined. Some units at the supply end will be overhauled or some pressure will be relieved. In addition, as the implementation rate of OPEC’s production reduction reached 100% in June, crude oil rebounded slightly, and the price of WTI’s main contract on the 14th was $40.29/barrel, up $0.19/barrel from the previous day, which supported the cost side. Downstream polyester start-up load maintained around 87%, the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was lower than 60%, which was at a low level compared with the same period last year, and the terminal market remained mainly light demand.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that under the influence of cost driven and maintenance of its own devices, PTA market is expected to rise slightly in the short term. In the future, some PTA plants still have plans to postpone equipment maintenance. In addition, with the load increase of Hengli line 5 and Zhongtai this week, the PTA excess pressure increases in the later stage, and the accumulated supply and demand range is further expanded, and there is still downward risk in the price.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 15th, spot nickel fell slightly, and is now at 107816.67 yuan / ton, down 0.14% compared with the previous day, 5.2% lower than the beginning of the year, and 1.36% higher than the same period last year. Shanghai nickel mainly opened at 109000 yuan, then the price was weak, closing at 108570 yuan, down 0.44%. LME3 nickel closed at US $13545, down 0.40%.

2、 Market analysis

At present, although the epidemic situation in Indonesia is relatively severe, the production progress of nipi has not been significantly affected. The logistics situation of nipi from Indonesia to China has always been normal, and the commissioning progress is slightly faster than expected. Therefore, there is a large probability of sufficient supply of nipi in Indonesia. Nickel production of stainless steel accounts for about 70% of the total consumption. At present, stainless steel enters the off-season after July. Some special steel plants are expected to start maintenance in July, which is pessimistic.

3、 Future prospects

Aftermarket forecast: Although the current nickel price has been in a low level range, the raw material nickel pig iron supply is sufficient, and the mainstream stainless steel manufacturers may not significantly reduce the production. It is expected that the nickel price will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

PVC continued to rise this week. According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the average price of domestic mainstream PVC on July 10 was 6487.5 yuan / ton, which was 3.68% higher than the beginning of the week, 3.8% higher than the beginning of the month, and 4.63% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC market is full of strength and continues to rise. The active futures market led to a hot atmosphere of price rise in the spot market. This round of big rise was caused by the macro warming and fund speculation. Recently, the active stock market and the influx of funds from the real estate industry have led to a sharp rise in PVC futures, with the main contract up to 6650 yuan, which is at the high level of the year. The spot market is boosted by this, and the whole line rises. Take Tianyuan Group as an example, the price of 6350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 6600 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 250 yuan. The price rise of mainstream enterprises is mainly concentrated in 150-250 yuan, with the focus moving upward and the low-end price of PVC Not much, corporate profits have been restored, the attitude of the industry is optimistic. At the end of the week, futures fell back, spot market growth slowed down, the continued rise of PVC did not bring hot market trading, procurement is still more cautious. Due to the low consumption season and the influence of plum rain season in the south, downstream procurement is mostly rigid demand, and the high price PVC has a wait-and-see attitude. However, with the continuous decline of inventory, the maintenance of some enterprises and the positive factors of futures, the trend of PVC is still strong, with the risk of callback, but it is not easy to go down sharply.

On the spot, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of July 10, the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range was around 6250-6600 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 type carbide in East China is around 6500-6550 yuan / ton, that in South China is 6650-6750 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 6370-6480 yuan / ton, that in Hangzhou is 6500-6550 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is 6650-6750 yuan / ton.

In terms of futures, the opening price of V2009 contract on October 10 was 6575, the highest price was 6650, the lowest price was 6510, and the closing price was 6540, down 10, up 0.15%. The trading volume was 276000 hands, an increase of 100000 hands. The position was 187000 hands, reduced by 7767 hands. PVC futures rose sharply, with the main contract hitting the top of 6650 yuan, which was the highest level in the year.

In terms of supply, the operating rate of the enterprise is over 70%, the market supply pressure is not great, and the supply of goods in some regions is tight. Most manufacturers are pre-sale orders, so there is no pressure on sales, and confidence in raising prices is enhanced. In the near future, there are not many enterprises planned to repair and repair, such as Shanxi Yushe, Inner Mongolia Junzheng (new plant area), Qinghai Yihua and other enterprises have maintenance plans. With the arrival of imported goods in the later stage, the maintenance enterprises resume production, increase the output and stabilize the supply. At present, the supply side is still good.

In terms of inventory, social inventory continued to decline. Due to the low enthusiasm of downstream purchasing in the off-season, the decline rate slowed down, and the supply of goods in South China was tight. The manufacturers reported that the shipment situation was good. There was little change in East China. The total inventory decreased to 268000 tons, which was still lower than the level in the same period last year.

In terms of demand, in the off-season consumption, the downstream did not store a large number of PVC products, but mainly purchased on demand with a small amount of replenishment. The rainy season in the South reduced the demand. Some enterprises had production reduction and production stoppage. The demand decreased to a certain extent. The downstream pipe and profile products enterprises decreased by about 10% and remained at a high level. The enthusiasm for high-end PVC prices was not high, but the demand for real estate was still high In, PVC still has a certain supporting force, but the strength is weakened.

On July 9, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, with the settlement price of main contracts at $39.62/barrel, down $1.28. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 42.35 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.94 U.S. dollars. On the 9th, the European ethylene market fell, with FD northwest Europe offering 769-779 US dollars / ton, down 25 US dollars / ton; CIF northwest Europe quoted 750-758 US dollars / ton, down 6 US dollars / ton. The Asian ethylene market remained stable, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 795-805 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 745-755 USD / T. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted 335-353 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton. Generally speaking, the market of ethylene in Europe and the United States is mainly up in recent years. The demand of the whole ethylene market is better, and the trading atmosphere is active, and the rise is relatively sufficient.

The price of blue carbon in the upstream market is low consolidation, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. But the downstream PVC price high consolidation, the rise is weak, downstream customer demand for calcium carbide weakened. In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2500 yuan / ton, and the calcium carbide in the future market will drop slightly.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that at present, the PVC fundamentals have not changed much, the macro warming and the futures boost, the PVC spot market is rising, and the corporate profits can be repaired. However, in the off-season demand, the downstream has limited acceptance ability for high-end PVC, and the enthusiasm for pursuing rise is not high. It is expected that the trend of PVC will remain firm in the short term, with a risk of callback, but it is not easy to go down sharply.