Trade name: br 9000

Latest price (October 12): 9070.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of BR 9000 in China was 9070.00 yuan / ton on the 29th, up 0.55% compared with the previous day. On the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene continued to rise, the cost side was pushed higher, and the ex factory price of petrochemicals was firm. According to the business agency, the current butadiene price was 6363 yuan / ton; the ex factory price of Daqing cis-1-butadiene in Northeast China of PetroChina was 8700 yuan / ton. On the other hand, the production of downstream tires and automobiles increased compared with the previous period, and the demand side was supported. According to the business agency, according to the data disclosed by the China Automobile Association, according to the statistics of the ten day report of key enterprises by the China Automobile Industry Association, the sales volume of the automobile industry in September is estimated to be 2572000, with a month on month increase of 17.7% and a year-on-year increase of 13.3%.

Aftermarket forecast: raw material price is high, downstream tire demand increases. It is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will remain high in the future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business club, the nickel price rose slightly on the 12th, with an offer of 117216.67 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.41% over the previous day, a rise of 3.06% over the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 14.18% year-on-year. Shanghai nickel mainly opened at 115200 yuan. After the opening, the price was strong and closed at 117080 yuan, up 0.98%. LME3 nickel closed at $15235, up 0.40%.

2、 Market analysis

Prior to the resumption of negotiations on the U.S. fiscal stimulus plan, and the weakening dollar boosted the trend of base metals over the weekend, and nickel prices closed positive. The export rhythm of Philippine nickel ore is still limited by the epidemic situation. The import volume of domestic nickel ore may be lower than the level of the same period. The continuous increase of external price of nickel ore will promote the domestic NPI production or a small continuous decline after September. In terms of downstream, the sales volume of electric vehicles in China and Europe has reached a new high, and the prospect of nickel used in automobile batteries is optimistic; the production of stainless steel 300 Series in China continues to reach the historical high.

3、 Future prospects

Post market forecast: the tight pattern of short-term nickel ore and ferronickel has not changed, and Indonesia’s new steel-making capacity is about to be put into operation. It is expected that the short-term fluctuation of nickel price will be strong.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA spot market price maintained a small rise on October 12, with the average price of 3357 yuan / ton on the spot market of that day, up 0.99% compared with the previous trading day and a year-on-year decrease of 35.08%. PTA main futures (2101) closed up and closed at 3480, up 18% or 0.52% from the previous trading day.

As of October 10, the operating load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was above 84%, which was 6.5% higher than that of the same period last year. Downstream polyester factory price rise to support the market and high production and sales, boosting PTA market price and driving forward spot turnover to pick up. Polyester factories continue to raise prices. The mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have increased 50-100 yuan / ton, with good production and sales, with an average production and sales of 120% – 140%, and the production and sales of some better factories can reach 200%. On the first day of the listing of polyester staple fiber, all futures contracts were closed. Cotton in the same cotton textile industry chain once touched the price limit and finally closed up more than 5%. Cotton yarn futures price also rarely rose by more than 4%.

Recent domestic PTA plant maintenance plan

Unit capacity (10000 tons / year) unit maintenance

On the evening of September 29, Hanbang Petrochemical began to reduce the load and shut down for 1 month

Zhongtai Petrochemical 120 started maintenance for 2 months on September 30

Yizheng Chemical fiber 65 began to reduce the load on October 12 and planned to overhaul for 18 days

Sichuan energy investment 100 plans to start maintenance for 2 weeks on October 15

Yadong petrochemical company plans to overhaul about 2 weeks in mid November

PTA plant itself is also supported. Yizheng Chemical fiber set of 650000 tons PTA plant began to reduce the load on October 12, and planned to overhaul for 18 days. Sichuan Energy Investment Co., Ltd. plans to overhaul for 2 weeks on October 15. The 2.2 million tons of Hanbang Petrochemical Company and 1.2 million tons of Zhongtai Petrochemical Company will be shut down at the end of September, and the maintenance plan is 30 days and 60 days.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the current market is in the long short news game, PTA is still under the pressure of capacity expansion, and the new production capacity is about to be put in place to restrain the market rebound. However, in the near future, supported by the improvement of equipment maintenance and terminal downstream demand, PTA market is expected to maintain a small rise in the short term.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

Acrylic acid market rose sharply in September, up 29.18%. In October, the market of acrylic acid continued to rise after the festival. As of October 10, the average price of acrylic acid quoted in East China was 10166.67 yuan / ton, up 5.17% compared with September 30 and 35.86% higher than that on September 1, according to the data of the bulk list of business agencies. After the festival, the market atmosphere was strong, some devices began to be overhauled, the market supply decreased, the downstream inquiry atmosphere increased, the market trading was active, and the mainstream manufacturers gradually raised their prices.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acrylic acid of some enterprises in recent years (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated)

Enterprise market price specification date

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. 8400 yuan / T, line standard: common acid; grade: excellent product: October 10, 2020

Jinan planhua Chemical Co., Ltd. 8400 yuan / T, line standard: ordinary acid; grade: excellent product: October 10, 2020

Aite (Shandong) new material Co., Ltd. $8400 / T, industry standard: Pu acid; grade: excellent product: October 10, 2020

Jinan Mingyu Chemical Co., Ltd. 8400 yuan / T, line standard: ordinary acid; grade: excellent product: October 10, 2020

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 11000 yuan / T, line standard: common acid; grade: superior product: October 09, 2020

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 12000 yuan / T refined acid, 99.7% content, 2020-10-09

Upstream propylene, on October 9, Shandong propylene market price fluctuated slightly. According to the price chart of the business agency, since October 1, the price of propylene has remained stable on the whole, and the prices of some enterprises have risen and fallen slightly. Today, the trend of the holiday has continued, with a slight up and down. The market transaction is now between 7500 yuan / ton and 7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7500 yuan / ton. Recently, some propylene plants have stopped unexpectedly, and the high-speed limit has been lifted at the end of holidays. At present, the stock of propylene manufacturers is not much, the crude oil price is rising slightly, and the supply is slightly tight. The current propylene price has been at the recent high level for a long time, so it is expected that the propylene price will remain stable in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

The acrylic acid analysts of the business agency believe that the current price of raw material propylene is high and the cost support is strong. With the maintenance of some units, the spot supply in the market is relatively tight, the downstream procurement is active, and the market atmosphere is active. It is expected that the acrylic acid Market will be stable and better in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club, pure benzene experienced shock in September and weakened slightly at the end of the month. On September 1, the listed price of pure benzene was 3070-3450 yuan / ton (the average price was 3390 yuan / ton), and on September 30, the listing price was 3000-3450 yuan / ton (the average price was 3380 yuan / ton), with a slight drop of 0.29% this month.

2、 Analysis and comment

In September, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was not adjusted, supporting the price of pure benzene. In the first ten days, the price of some downstream products in Northeast China was exported, the market supply increased, and the demand was not improved, which led to the price weakening. In the middle of the year, price stabilization and consolidation are the main factors. Late ten days: before the festival, the willingness of downstream replenishment is not strong, affected by the pressure of shipment, the overall price of refining is weak.

In terms of crude oil, after the end of labor day in September, crude oil demand entered the off-season; in addition, public health events showed no signs of easing, and crude oil in September showed a weak decline. Compared with August 31, Brent oil price decreased by 4.21 USD / barrel, or 9.38%; WTI oil price decreased by 2.43 USD / barrel, or 5.66%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 39.09%; WTI oil price decreased by 33.4%.

In September, the price of pure benzene was lower than the domestic market price. On September 30, South Korea imported 396.33 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, a decrease of 25 US dollars / ton or 5.93% compared with the previous month; and that of East China was 408.5 US dollars / ton, down 29 US dollars / ton or 6.63% compared with the previous month

Downstream, styrene: styrene surged higher in September. On September 1, the price in Shandong was 5300 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, it was 5450 yuan / ton, up 2.83% this month. The highest price of this month appeared on 29-30 days, with the price of 5450 yuan / ton; the lowest price appeared on September 13, with the price of 5300 yuan / ton.

Aniline: in September, the export of aniline increased, enterprises executed more contracts, less spot supply, and prices continued to rise. At the beginning of September, Huatai restarted and the market supply increased to a certain extent. However, the downstream operating rate increased slightly and the demand improved, which also supported the price of aniline. On September 30, the price of aniline in Shandong was 5100-5300 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 5500-5600 yuan / ton, with an average increase of 22.31% this month.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the overall news of crude oil was negative, and the decline was hard to change. There was a downward risk in October.

Sinopec returned to lower the listing price to 3300 yuan / ton after the festival, driving down the market negotiation. Entering October, the pure benzene market will still be constrained by high inventory, and the crude oil news is short, and the trend is expected to be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the large list data of business agency, the market of aniline improved in September, and the price continued to rise. On September 1, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4250-4430 yuan / ton, and in Nanjing was 4400-4600 yuan / ton; on September 30, the aniline price in Shandong was 5100-5300 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 5500-5600 yuan / ton, with an average increase of 22.31% this month.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of raw materials, the listed price of pure benzene on September 1 was 3070-3450 yuan / ton (the average price was 3390 yuan / ton), and on September 30 it was 3000-3450 yuan / ton (the average price was 3380 yuan / ton), with a slight drop of 0.29% this month. In September, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was not adjusted, supporting the price of pure benzene. In the first ten days, the price of some downstream products in Northeast China was exported, the market supply increased, and the demand was not improved, which led to the price weakening. In the middle of the year, price stabilization and consolidation are the main factors. Late ten days: before the festival, the willingness of downstream replenishment is not strong, affected by the pressure of shipment, the overall price of refining is weak.

Nitric acid: the price of nitric acid in East China was 1500 yuan / ton on September 1 and 1516.67 yuan / ton on September 30, up 16.67 yuan / ton or 1.11% compared with the beginning of the month.

In September, aniline export increased, enterprises executed more contracts, less spot supply, and prices continued to rise. At the beginning of September, Huatai restarted and the market supply increased to a certain extent. However, the downstream operating rate increased slightly and the demand improved, which also supported the price of aniline.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, Sinopec returned to reduce the listing price to 3300 yuan / ton after the festival, which led to the weakening of market negotiations. Entering October, the pure benzene market will still be constrained by high inventory, and the crude oil news is short, and the trend is expected to be weak.

After the national day, some aniline plants were shut down for maintenance, and the market supply was reduced, so the price of aniline still had some room to rise. However, the downstream profit space narrowed, and the space for aniline up regulation was limited. In October, we paid attention to the impact of Shanghai Lianheng MDI plant’s temporary shutdown for maintenance on aniline Market.

Trade name: nitrile rubber

The latest price is 15766 yuan / month

Analysis points: the domestic NBR market rose sharply, with the mainstream average price at 15766.67/t, up 4.42% compared with the previous day. On the one hand, crude oil prices rebounded during the festival, the price of raw material butadiene rose slightly, and the atmosphere of cost was more favorable; on the other hand, with the operating rate of downstream rubber products increased after the festival, the inquiry for NBR increased, and the demand side supported the high price of NBR; finally, the ex factory price of NBR remained high, and traders’ offers continued to rise. To sum up, the price of nitrile rubber continued to rise after the festival. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic NBR market offer was higher, Lanhua NBR 3308 mainstream reported 15100-15500 yuan / ton, Nandi 1052 mainstream reported 16800-17500 yuan / ton.

Aftermarket forecast: the cost side is high, the demand side is stable, and the market price of nitrile rubber is expected to remain high in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data from the large list of business agencies, the domestic PA6 market fluctuated in September, and most of the spot brands were reduced. As of September 30, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 from traders was about 10433.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.15% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

The price of caprolactam in the upstream of PA6 rose first and then decreased in September. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material end pure benzene in Shandong increased slightly, and the price of styrene also rose, driving the domestic spot price of caprolactam to rise in the first half of the month. Business agency data showed that the monthly peak appeared on September 15. The average ex factory price of caprolactam was about 9650 yuan / ton, up 1.40% from the average price at the beginning of the month. Then the market began to decline. As of September 30, the average ex factory price of caprolactam fell to 9333.33 yuan / ton. Recently, some caprolactam enterprises resumed production, and the spot supply increased. Pure benzene in the middle of the market also fell into a standoff. It is expected that caprolactam market will decline steadily in the short term, and it is suggested to pay attention to terminal demand.

The market trend of PA6 in September was weak, and the upstream lactam price recovered at the beginning of the month, and the cost side support was strengthened. But on the whole, the lack of direction guidance good news, PA6 after a small rise began to adjust downward. The monthly high of 11033.33 yuan / ton of average price appeared early on September 3. At present, the demand level of downstream factories is not high, and the order follow-up is weak. Among them, the transaction of high-speed spinning chips is particularly slow, and the situation that downstream factories are still in stock is common in conventional spinning. Affected by this, there is resistance in the shipment of merchants. In terms of operation, it is inclined to make profits and take orders, and the atmosphere of inquiry is weak. The overall trend of the far end crude oil in September was also unsatisfactory, and the market confidence was insufficient, which did not improve the market atmosphere of PA6. Only the overall operating rate of nylon filament is good for the price of PA6, but the current overall demand is weak and difficult to change, and the market of PA6 is relatively difficult.

3、 Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: domestic PA6 market weakened in September, and spot prices of various brands were mostly reduced. The upstream caprolactam price rose first and then fell, and the cost side support of PA6 was unstable. Downstream factory inventory is more sufficient, take goods just need to operate, occasionally there are bargain hunting, inquiry atmosphere is relatively weak. Business mentality is not strong, the operation of the real single to let profit go. Recently, PA6 market is affected by multiple negative effects such as weak demand, which is expected to be difficult to improve in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market is stronger in mid September, and all models of products have a certain increase. As of September 30, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding class sample enterprises was about 20650 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.55% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

In terms of adipic acid upstream of PA66: at the end of August, the domestic adipic acid Market stalled and entered September, the domestic inventory pressure slightly eased. In the first ten days of September, the international and domestic adipic acid market recovered. On September 11, the average price of adipic acid was about 6660.00 yuan / ton. However, the market demand performance is still relatively flat, and the market supply pressure is likely to continue, which has resistance to the upward trend of adipic acid. In the middle of the year, the prices quoted by dealers in some regions rose slightly in the late ten days. According to the data of business agency, the mainstream market price was 6500-6800 yuan / ton on the 21st. The plant operating rate is about 80%. Downstream demand is relatively weak, and the market continues to be oversupply. Most dealers follow the market, the atmosphere of transaction is still in a weak level. In recent years, the price of pure benzene is relatively flat, and the support for adipic acid cost side is general. Market people are cautious, dealers light stock operation, adipic acid is expected to maintain the finishing market in the short term.

The upstream adipic acid generally supports the cost side of PA66, but the market of PA66 can still get out of the positive market in September, and the domestic spot market has a big rise. This month, the domestic PA66 operating rate did not change much, and the shortage of goods in the market continued. This month, domestic automobile and other industries have recovered, PA66 consumption has a trend to expand, tight supply of goods into the traditional peak season, the increase will naturally further expand. The actual transaction angle observation, the market trading atmosphere is general. It is difficult to say that the order follow-up speed is fast. However, stock preparation before the festival is also a demand point, and the terminal demand is picking up at the end of the month. In addition, BASF, a major international manufacturer, has announced several times to increase the price of PA66 industrial chain products in the Asia Pacific region and enhance market confidence. This month, the focus of business offers continued to rise, PA66 is expected to continue the trend of strong.

Business agency analysts believe: in September, the domestic PA66 market continued a positive trend. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is stable and small, which supports the cost of PA66 in general. Downstream factory inquiry and procurement to maintain just needed operation, the traditional peak season order follow-up has turned warm. At present, the continuous tight supply pattern is a major reason for the sharp rise of PA66. It is expected that the market of PA66 will continue to be stronger in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market price fluctuated and adjusted in September, and the spot prices of some brands fell back in a narrow range. As of September 30, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was around 8016.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.64% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

PP upstream propylene domestic (Shandong) market fluctuated upward in the first half of the month and stabilized in the second half. The average spot price rose by about 300 yuan / ton from September 1 to 4, and there was a round of downward adjustment from September 7 to 10, according to the data from the business club’s bulk list. From the 13th to 17th, the upward market appeared again. The average spot price increased about 350 yuan / ton. On the 18th, the price began to stabilize. At present, the market transaction is between 7300 yuan / ton and 7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7450 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory in a controllable range. The crude oil price in September is in general, and the overall profit of the industrial chain is still good. The downstream operating rate is high and there is a demand for replenishment before the festival. The purchasing enthusiasm is good, which has a certain support for propylene. But the price is in the top position, upward difficult, so it is expected that the propylene price will stabilize slightly in the near future.

Upstream propylene rose in September after strong, high market, there is support for PP cost side. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market performance of PP (wire drawing) fluctuated and adjusted in September, and the spot price remained stable after a narrow correction in the middle of the month. In terms of inventory, PP inventory of two barrels of oil and other manufacturers decreased steadily, and the inventory level was in the low range over the years. Since the beginning of the month, the arrival of port cargo has been stable, and there is no obvious pressure on inventory. The trend of far upstream crude oil in September is general, which has a certain suppression on chemicals under the industrial chain. Previously, it was estimated that more PP maintenance units will resume production and new projects will be put into operation. At present, the supply release range is limited. In particular, the negative impact on the increase of PP supply due to the postponement of new project commissioning has not reached the expected level. In the peak season, the downstream demand is strong, and the operating rate of downstream factories such as plastic knitting increases, and the orders begin to increase gradually. The merchants stopped in the market in the middle of the month, and the prices are stable in the second half of the month. PP (wire drawing) market is expected to consolidate in the short term, and late production of new projects may bring impact to the market at the end of October.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 30, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 8350 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, there was an increase of 3.30%. In this month, the drawing materials showed a high finishing market after rising. The monthly high appeared at 8383.33 yuan / ton on the 4th, and then stabilized. It is reported that the production of fiber PP has expanded to some extent and still has a growth trend, but the inventory of fiber material is still declining steadily. This reflects that the peak season consumption has a certain support for the spot price, and the current petrochemical factory prices are generally stable. Business operations tend to be cautious, with pre-sale of holiday goods at the end of the month. The downstream side just needs to prepare goods, with a wait-and-see atmosphere as the main attitude. It is expected that PP (fiber) will be in consolidation operation in the near future.

PP meltblown materials decreased in September, domestic PP melt blown materials market confidence is still poor. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the decline of PP (melt blown) has decreased since September. As of September 30, the average price of sample enterprises is about 14500 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable, the demand for epidemic prevention products is declining, and the domestic market is still in the pattern of oversupply. The collapse of last month’s overseas big bill still seems to affect the current market mentality. At present, some countries in the world may enter the rebound period of health events again, and the demand is expected to rise. However, the competition among domestic anti epidemic product manufacturers is still strong, and the profits of the main downstream mask factories are seriously diluted. Sinopec’s enterprises have successively sold meltblown materials and cloth, which also have an impact on the market. The relationship between the future demand of PP (melt blown) and the profit of manufacturers is complex, and the mentality of merchants is negative. However, the spot price of melt blown PP seems to have fallen to a low profit point, which is expected to stabilize in the near future.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: September domestic PP spot market prices are generally stable. Upstream propylene market is strong, there is support for PP cost side. PP (drawing) supply expansion has not yet started, although the market mentality has been affected, but the price is generally stable. PP (fiber) market rose after the high firmness, PP (melt blown) demand continued to be weak, price correction narrowed. Current inventory is still in a steady decline, this month’s weakness in futures also restricts the PP market. The stock situation of downstream factories is fair, the business mentality is general, and the offer follows the market. It is expected that the PP spot market will be weak after the start-up of new production projects.