1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic toluene market has been stable this week. As of Friday, the domestic market average price was about 3300 yuan / ton, down 0.3% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Supported by the rebound of international crude oil price, toluene price trend is stable this week. Sinopec’s enterprises listed toluene price stable this week. Port inventory fell slightly, but the pressure to the warehouse did not decrease. Market oversupply, downstream blending oil and solvent demand is general, price is weak, demand has not improved. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3330 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the outcome of the US election, the progress of the US economic stimulus plan, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East and the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

In terms of crude oil, API and EIA data released in the early morning and night of Beijing time showed that the crude oil storage data of the United States last week was significantly lower than expected, and the news that OPEC + and Russia are considering a more substantial reduction in production at the beginning of next year boosted the bottom of the international crude oil recovery at the beginning of the week. However, the new epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is becoming more and more severe, and the result of the US election is still pending, which makes the market sense As of Friday, Brent rose 2.095 USD / barrel to 38.3 USD / barrel, up 5.79% from last week. At present, the main uncertain factors in the market come from the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States and the uncertainty of the US presidential election. The final direction of crude oil will not take further action until the demand side is better and the US election is clear. In the medium term, oil prices mainly depend on the recovery of demand side and the direction of macro market.

Downstream, TDI continued the downward trend this week, the market mentality is cautious, trading atmosphere is weak, pay attention to factory policy guidance. At present, 15000 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 15500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will continue to decline. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 498 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 516 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will continue to decline.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that toluene in the domestic market will be weak and fluctuate slightly next week.

The domestic BDO market was still rising last week. According to sample data monitored by business society, the average price of domestic BDO producers on November 2 was 11300 yuan / ton, the average price of domestic BDO producers on November 6 was 11675 yuan / ton, the price increased by 3.32% in the week, and the price rose 36.82% on a month-on-year basis, up 22.64% year on year. For enterprise installations, Dongyuan will be overhauled on October 30, with 20 days expected; new industry is expected to restart in the middle; Tianye plans to restart 30000 tons of units in November; Shaanxi Ronghe plans to restart in November. As of today (11.9), the main flow of retail water in South China has been discussed from 11600 to 12000 yuan / ton; the mainstream spot bulk water negotiation in East China is 11600-12000 yuan / ton.

Some enterprises announced the October settlement price, which was listed in November:

Enterprise settlement in October (bulk water delivery) listing in November (bulk water delivery)

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. RMB 9500 / T East China, 9650 yuan / T South China 10800-11500 yuan / ton, South China 11000-11600 yuan / ton

Xinjiang lanshantun River Chemical Co., Ltd. 9500 yuan / T in East China, 9600 yuan / T in South China, 11000 yuan / T in East China and 11200 yuan / ton in South China

At present, the spot supply is still tight, supporting the high-level offer of manufacturers. Downstream contract procurement is the main, other downstream storage and spot replenishment demand, the manufacturers pushed up strongly, the center of gravity continued to rise. BDO analysts at business agency expect that the domestic BDO market will still be at a high level this week.

Trade name: ammonium chloride

Latest price (November 9): 627.50 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the market of ammonium chloride is stable. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of dry ammonium chloride in China was 627.50 yuan / ton on the 9th, which was the same as the price of the previous day. According to the understanding of the business association, the overall operating rate of the combined alkali plant is about 70%. At present, some enterprises have started to stop for maintenance, and the maintenance enterprises in the later stage may increase. The overall operating rate will further decrease, so as to relieve the pressure of ammonium chloride inventory. The overall demand is still light. According to the business agency, the overall operating rate of domestic scale compound fertilizer enterprises is between 40% and 50%. The ex factory price of ammonium chloride is basically stable. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the 600000 T / a ammonium chloride plant of China Salt Kunshan will be in normal operation on November 9, 2020, with the ex factory price of 610 yuan / ton and the factory price of wet ammonium 540 yuan / ton.

After market forecast, demand off-season, combined with high inventory, it is expected that the market of ammonium chloride will continue to be weak and stable in the short term. With the increase of maintenance efforts of enterprises, there may be a slight rebound in the later period.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price rose slightly on the 9th, with the spot nickel quotation of 120666.67 yuan / ton, up 1.12% compared with the previous trading day, 6.1% higher than the beginning of the year, and 10.27% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The US presidential election came to an end overnight, and macro expectations boosted the nonferrous metals market in the short term. The export of Philippine nickel ore is still limited. Before the rainy season, the domestic nickel ore reserve is lower than the same period level, and the external price of nickel ore is firm. At present, Indonesia is in a state of increasing supply and demand, while domestic demand is facing a high level and supply is expected to decline gradually. With the expected increase of Indonesia’s NPI imports, the tight pattern of domestic nickel ore and ferronickel has been loosened in the short term. Domestic nickel stocks in Shanghai fell 1867 tons to 29528 tons last week, a week-on-week decline of 6.32%, a new low in more than five months.

3、 Future prospects

However, the supply and demand of nickel market are expected to be tight in the short term, while the supply and demand of nickel market are expected to be tight, while the supply of nickel is expected to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of domestic grade 52 grade I products of chlorinated paraffin on November 2 was 4933 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic grade 52 grade-I products was 5033 yuan / ton on November 6, and the price of the first class products increased by 2.03% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of chlorinated paraffin increased this week as raw materials rose at the beginning of the week. This week, the start rate of chlorinated paraffin enterprises is about 60%. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4700-5100 yuan / ton, that of Hebei is 4700-4900 yuan / ton, and that of Henan area is 4500-5200 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4500-5300 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is 4500-4900 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4700-5400 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4800-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4500-5200 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5100 yuan / ton.

The raw material market prices are running at a high level this week. The price of raw liquid wax fell after rising this week, and the demand for liquid wax was insufficient, and the liquid wax was stable. In the early Zhou, the price of raw liquid chlorine increased due to the shortage of supply and maintenance of some enterprises. Liquid chlorine prices began to fall over the weekend. Downstream enterprises have a strong attitude towards chlorinated paraffin.

3、 Post market forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business agency believe that the current price of chlorinated paraffin raw materials fluctuates high and the cost support is insufficient. Chlorinated paraffin is shipped generally. The downstream has obvious price offset for chlorinated paraffin, and the investment is general. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be stable in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 6, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11533 yuan / ton, which was 267 yuan / ton or 2.37% higher than that on November 1 (with an average price of 11266 yuan); on October 1 (the average price was 11366 yuan), the average price was increased by 167 yuan / ton, or 1.47%.

Since November, the domestic n-propanol market has been operating steadily. Until the 6th, the domestic market of n-propanol rose slightly. Driven by Shandong and Nanjing, the ex factory price of n-propanol generally rose by 200-300 yuan / ton. In Shandong, the ex factory price of n-propanol (bulk water) was around 10600-11000 yuan / ton, and that of n-propanol (including package) was 11500-11800 yuan Nanjing area: the ex factory price of n-propanol (bulk water) is around 10300-10800 yuan tons. At present, the downstream just needs to purchase, and this price is slightly upward or mainly due to the support of the upstream industrial chain propylene market for several days. At present, the business has a good mentality and the inventory level is normal. As of the 6th, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11533 yuan / ton, which was 267 yuan / ton or 2.37% higher than that on November 1 (the average price was 11266 yuan).

In terms of raw materials, the recent external ethylene market overall showed a downward trend. Asian ethylene market prices fell, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $740-750 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $730-740 / T as of the 5th. The European ethylene market price fell slightly. As of the 5th, the European ethylene market price was FD, which closed at 692-703 US dollars / ton in northwest Europe and 678-687 US dollars / ton in CIF northwest Europe. Ethylene prices in the U.S. fell to 385-397 US dollars / ton as of the 5th. The ethylene market in Europe and the United States declined slightly in early November. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of the whole ethylene market was general, and the market continued to decline.

Internationally, on November 5, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, with the settlement price of the main contract at $38.79/barrel, down $0.36. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell, with the main contract settlement price of $40.93/barrel, down $0.30. Oil prices fell slightly, mainly due to the market focus returning to the epidemic concerns and the impact of the resulting economic slowdown on fuel demand.

Demand for fixed n-propanol after the market is more stable, the rise and fall will be limited

In the short term, affected by the relatively fixed downstream demand, the domestic n-propanol market will enter a stable trend in the future, with a stable overall mentality, and the subsequent ups and downs will be limited. In the long run, the consumption of low toxic n-propanol will continue to grow in recent years, driven by the development of downstream coatings, spray painting, ink, adhesives and other industries, and under the situation of stricter national environmental protection policies. The application advantages of n-propanol will be more obvious. With the continuous improvement of environmental protection requirements of coating industry in the future, n-propanol is expected to become the most important solvent in the coating field, and the market development prospect is bright.

Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic ABS market continued to run strongly in November, and most of the spot prices in the market showed a strong trend. As of November 6, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 18450.00 yuan / ton, which was 5.43% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

ABS upstream styrene, domestic styrene market last month, the whole month’s upward trend gratifying. Affected by the strong demand, downstream enterprises shortened the shutdown period and scope during the National Day period, and the operating rate remained above 80%. The inventory of styrene production enterprises did not increase but decreased. At the end of October, the total inventory in East China was 237300 tons, showing an overall downward trend. In addition to the tight spot supply in South China, the supply of styrene in other regions was moderate. Supply is still expected to be tight in November, with high and stable demand and strong market mentality. At the same time, the downstream price goes up, pushing up styrene in reverse. Pure benzene inventory high, at the same time the demand is general, the recent price of styrene rose. Outside of the chemical industry, negative news. However, in the later stage, the imported goods were less, and the wharf continued to reduce the warehouse. It is expected that styrene will be strengthened in the near future.

In terms of acrylonitrile upstream of ABS, the raw material propylene weakened in October, and the current situation has recovered. The market sentiment of acrylonitrile is general. As for the far upstream crude oil, the fiscal scale stimulated by the US election may not be as large as expected, and the policy toward Iran may be relaxed, resulting in the recovery of crude oil supply and the fall of international oil price. In addition, overseas markets are worried about the rebound of the epidemic situation to restrain demand, and the cost side support of acrylonitrile is not ideal, and the operating rate of downstream acrylic fiber and other industries remains high. At present, there are enterprises overhauling and starting work, and the overall supply tends to be balanced, which is not good for the spot. It is expected that acrylonitrile will run smoothly in the near future.

In November, the domestic butadiene market was slightly weak. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price remained at about 9200 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month. In October, affected by the higher profits of natural rubber futures, the price of synthetic rubber downstream of butadiene rose significantly. In the second half of this year, rubber demand recovered, and the downstream tire industry and rubber products industry of synthetic rubber gradually started to recover. The demand for synthetic rubber formed a support, and the whole industrial chain was favorable for linkage. At present, the sentiment of butadiene market is slowly digesting and finishing at a high level. The rise in the external market supports the domestic spot price. The northern spot supply is sufficient, and the downstream takes the goods at a low price, and the prices of some manufacturers are slightly weakened. It is expected that the market in the near future will be mainly organized.

At present, the domestic ABS market price continues in the peak season, and the spot price continues to rise. The prices of the three upstream materials are up and down, and the overall cost support is temporarily stable. In terms of supply, domestic ABS supply is still tight in general, and the rise in East China may slow down due to large arrival volume. The consumption of major domestic appliance enterprises and automobile industry has remained stable, and the market demand has a certain foundation. The resistance of the downstream to high price goods sources has been aggravated, and the recent domestic ABS spot price increase is fair.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: in early November, ABS market remained positive, prices of various brands continued to rise. Cost side of the upstream three materials overall narrow range of rise, the ABS cost side of the support is more stable. At present, ABS spot supply is still tight, downstream demand is temporarily stable, there is a psychological resistance to high price goods, and some profit margins have slowed down. ABS is expected to slow down in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price continued to rise this week, with the weekly low price of 6756 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 6943 yuan / ton at the weekend, and the weekly high price of 6946 yuan / ton on Thursday, with the weekly increase of 2.77% and the weekly amplitude of 2.81%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of business agency, propylene price remained stable in the first half of October and plummeted by more than 10% in the second half. Since November 1, the price has been adjusted back. Since November 1, the price has risen by 200-250 yuan / ton. Today, the price has finally begun to stabilize, and some enterprises have declined slightly. The transaction volume in the market is between 6750 yuan / ton and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6900 yuan / ton. At present, the shipment situation of the manufacturer is relatively ideal.

On November 5, the crude oil price did not change much, and the impact on propylene was limited.

The spot price of PP rose at the beginning of the week, up 1.43%. The futures market was also more ideal at the beginning of the week and flat in the later period, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid market slightly down this week, the weekly decline of 0.69%, less impact on propylene.

The propylene oxide market fell sharply this week, with a weekly drop of 8.14%, which had a more obvious negative impact on propylene.

The price of epichlorohydrin stabilized after rising this week, with a weekly increase of 3.40%, which has a positive impact on propylene.

The domestic price of n-butanol stabilized after a small fall this week, with a weekly decline of 0.51%, which had a limited impact on propylene.

This week, octanol market rose over the weekend, up 1.14%, slightly positive impact on propylene.

The isopropanol market rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.83%, which also had a slight positive impact on propylene.

This week, East China phenol also fell slightly and then stabilized, with a weekly decline of 0.67%, which had little impact on propylene.

East China acetone rose sharply on Monday and rose slightly at the weekend, with a 6-day increase of 4.80%, which had a certain effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: in a comprehensive view, the current propylene manufacturers have less inventory pressure, smooth shipment, the crude oil price is general, and the downstream market is more favorable, which can achieve a certain support, and the propylene price has a large decline in the early stage, and has a certain rise this week, so it is expected that the price will start to stabilize in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 5, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol was referred to near 9100 yuan / ton, and the average price was reduced by 233 yuan / ton, or 2.50%, compared with November 1; and the average price was reduced by 66 yuan / ton, or 0.73%, compared with November 1.

Raw materials fell support weakened, propylene glycol market weakness fell

In November, the domestic propylene glycol market was weak as a whole, and the cost support of propylene glycol gradually weakened due to the sharp decline of raw material propylene oxide. At present, the factory inventory is normal, downstream purchasing is maintained, and the export is slightly improved, but it is not enough to support the continuous high price offer of propylene glycol. Some propylene glycol factories have reduced their prices for shipment, and the low-end quotation has floated out of the market. At present, the overall domestic propylene glycol market has declined slightly, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is weak, and the wait-and-see mood increases. As of November 5, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol is around 9100 yuan / ton. Compared with November 1, the average price of propylene glycol is reduced by 233 yuan / ton, or 2.50%. Compared with November 1, the average price is reduced by 66 yuan / ton, up 0.73%.

 
Upstream, the domestic propylene oxide market continued to fall sharply since November. As of November 5, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 16466.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1300 yuan / ton or 7.14% compared with November 11, according to the large list data of business associations. At present, the market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the operators are cautious in their operation.

The wind direction tends to be downward as a whole, and the future market may continue to be weak

At present, the overall trend of the market tends to be downward, and the operators are more cautious to wait and see, and the downstream rigid demand is the main factor. The propylene glycol data analyst of the business agency believes that the propylene glycol market may continue to be weak in the short term and adjust its operation in a narrow range.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has fallen recently. The average price of ethylene on the first day is 724.25 US dollars / ton, and the price on the fifth day is 713.25 US dollars / ton, down 1.52%. The current price is down 5.87% month on month, and the current price is 13.91% lower than last year.

In the near future, the overall market of ethylene in the external market shows a downward trend. Asian ethylene market prices fell, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $725-745 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $730-740 / T as of the 4th. The European ethylene market price fell slightly. As of the 4th, the European ethylene market price was FD, which closed at 692-703 US dollars / ton in northwest Europe and 678-687 US dollars / ton in CIF northwest Europe. Ethylene prices in the U.S. fell to 385-397 US dollars / ton as of the 4th. The ethylene market in Europe and the United States declined slightly in early November. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of the whole ethylene market was general, and the market continued to decline.

International: on November 4, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $39.15/barrel, up $1.49 or 3.95%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.23/barrel, up $1.52 or 3.83%. US oil rose nearly 4% on Wednesday, mainly due to the rapid rise in oil prices and the sharp drop in US crude oil inventories after US President trump declared victory in the process of election results not yet produced. Although the crude oil rose recently, the impact of the crude oil slump has not been eliminated, which can not support the cost of ethylene, and the external market of ethylene declined slightly.

Recently, styrene in East China continued to rise, with an overall quotation of 7400-7500 yuan / ton. In the night trading, crude oil and styrene futures rose sharply, the cost of raw materials was supported to some extent, social inventory continued to decrease, some domestic production enterprises’ inventory was low, local supply was tight, supply and demand would continue to support in the face of the market. The downstream replenishment of the terminal is positive, and the optimistic expectation of the downstream can still play a supporting role in the Styrene Market and capital, and the profits of the styrene industrial chain are considerable. Good short-term styrene, is expected to continue to rise after consolidation, easy to rise but difficult to fall.

In terms of crude oil, the ethylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency believe that: at present, the crude oil production in the United States has decreased, and the crude oil inventory has dropped to the lowest level in the week up to April 3, which is good for the upward trend of oil price. Therefore, the data analysts of business agency predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly rise next.