1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose in the first ten days of November. On November 1, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 16250 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 16350 yuan / ton. The price rose by 0.62% within the month.

2、 Market analysis

In the first ten days of November, the price of domestic yellow phosphorus market was stable and rising. At present, the overall trend of the domestic yellow phosphorus market is relatively stable, manufacturers mainly issue early orders, and the yellow phosphorus market spot is slightly tense. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16500 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation in Guizhou is relatively stable at around 16200 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 16500 yuan / ton. Due to the rising cost, the yellow phosphorus enterprises intend to raise the price, but the downstream acceptance is not high.

In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, as of November 10, Guizhou Province: 30% grade phosphate ore truck plate quotation reference 300-360 yuan / ton, 28% grade phosphate ore truck plate quotation reference 280-320 yuan / ton, of which Guizhou Fuquan Huifa 28% grade phosphate rock goods factory quotation reference 300 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the month, 30% grade phosphate rock freight factory quoted 340 yuan / ton, up from the beginning of the month 20 yuan / ton. Guangxi region: 30% grade phosphate ore truck plate quotation reference 300-360 yuan / ton, 28% grade phosphate ore plate quotation reference 280-320 yuan / ton, Guangxi songgan 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant quotation reference 300 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the month, 30% grade phosphate rock freight factory quoted 340 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the month.

In terms of coke, as of the 11th, the mainstream price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2330 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day and 200 yuan / ton higher than the same period last month. On the whole, coke prices are relatively strong. Following the seventh round of increase of 50 yuan / ton by coke enterprises in Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu and other major production areas, Shandong announced that since 0:00 on November 11, the ex factory price of metallurgical coke of coke production enterprises in Weifang, Binzhou, Dezhou, Jining, Zaozhuang, Heze, Rizhao, Tai’an, etc. has increased by 50 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream steel mills have not responded to this question The final landing depends on the Acceptance Intention of downstream steel mills.

In terms of demand, the domestic phosphoric acid market is stable and small, with sporadic and small increases. After being strongly supported by the cost side in the early stage, the business offers continued to rise, and the trading center shifted upward. Taking Hubei Xingfa group as an example, it is now up to 4900 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 100 yuan. Other regions still have bullish expectations, and the market center of gravity begins to move up. At present, the spot price of raw material yellow phosphorus market is slightly tense, and the manufacturers intend to support the price. However, the downstream demand is not followed up enough, the transaction enthusiasm is not high, and most manufacturers are in a wait-and-see state. In the short term, the market of phosphoric acid is slightly deadlocked. At present, the quotations of mainstream manufacturers refer to 4700-5600 yuan / ton, slightly rising.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business society believes that the price of yellow phosphorus has risen steadily in the first ten days of November. Raw material phosphate rock rose slightly, and the production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises increased. In autumn and winter, due to the environmental protection requirements of atmospheric monitoring, some yellow phosphorus enterprises in some areas have reduced production, shut down furnace and suspended receiving orders. Make yellow phosphorus spot tight, yellow phosphorus is expected to remain bullish in the short term, but the increase is limited.

Recently, the domestic BDO market has continued to rise. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, since the National Day holiday, the BDO market price has gone up step by step. On October 9, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 8800 yuan / ton. As of November 11, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 12000 yuan / ton, with a 36.36% increase in the weekly price, a 35.44% rise in price on a month-on-month basis, and a 26.05% increase year-on-year. The continuous rise of BDO price is the only long-term sharp rise in the long-term downturn of BDO market in recent two years.

Some enterprises announced the settlement price in October and the listing price in November:

Settlement in October (bulk water delivery) listing in November (bulk water delivery)

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. $9500 / ton East China, 9650 yuan / ton South China East China 10800-11500 yuan / ton, South China 11000-11600 yuan / ton

Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Chemical Co., Ltd. East China 9500 yuan / ton, South China 9600 yuan / ton, East China 11000 yuan / ton, South China 11200 yuan / ton

The main reason for the sharp rise of BDO market is that due to the impact of domestic BDO device shutdown or maintenance, the spot supply continues to be tight; while the downstream industries start relatively high, and the demand for contract procurement external inventory replenishment is in short supply. The supply of goods in the hands of manufacturers is in short supply, and some manufacturers arrange orders for delivery within 15-20 days. At present, most manufacturers are basically out of stock, and the offer continues to rise.

In terms of the plant, Shaanxi Ronghe will restart on November 12; Dongyuan will be overhauled on October 30, which is expected to restart on November 20; Hecheng coal will be overhauled around 15 days, with an estimated 20 days.

At present, the spot supply is still tight, and some manufacturers have disclosed that the transaction price is about 13000 yuan / ton. BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will remain high in the short term.

Trade name: nitrile rubber

Latest price (November 11): 19233.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of NBR in China on the 11th was 19233.33 yuan / ton, up 0.70% compared with the previous day. On the one hand, the prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile continued to remain high, with strong support from the cost side. According to the business community, as of November 11, the price of butadiene was 9528 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of acrylonitrile and Secco in Shanghai was 9500 yuan / ton; on the other hand, the supply of nitrile rubber was relatively tight, and the ex factory price of manufacturers went up. On November 11, the ex factory prices of acrylonitrile rubber in Lanhua, Ningbo shunze and Sinopec Xibu were increased by 100-300 yuan / T, and the market was on the rise as a whole. According to the business agency, Zhenjiang Nandi nitrile rubber package was put in maintenance for about 15 days on October 25. Overall, the cost side and supply side of NBR form a strong support.

Aftermarket forecast: the cost side is high, the demand side is stable, and the market price of nitrile rubber is expected to remain high in the short term.

In recent years, the domestic aggregated MDI market has continued to rise. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the current domestic market price of aggregated MDI is 23000 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 27.42% and a year-on-year increase of 84.37%. The main manufacturers announced the latest guidance price, traders mainly wait-and-see attitude, the quotation has no obvious change. At present, the negotiated price of Wanhua goods in North China is about 22000-23000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is about 20500-21500 yuan / ton. The negotiated price of Wanhua goods in East China is about 22000-23000 yuan / ton, while that of Shanghai is about 21000-21500 yuan / ton. The negotiated price of Wanhua goods in South China is about 22000-23000 yuan / ton, while that of Shanghai is about 21000 yuan / ton.

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders Market:

Enterprise model price

Linyi Santong Chemical Co., Ltd. Wanhua material: 23000 yuan / T

Linyi Santong Chemical Co., Ltd. Shanghai Material: 21500 yuan / T

Nanjing Tanqing Trading Co., Ltd. various models: 22000 yuan / ton

Guangzhou Boshun Chemical Co., Ltd. Wanhua material: 23000 yuan / ton

Guangzhou Boshun Chemical Co., Ltd. Shanghai Material: 21000 yuan / ton

Shandong Bosu New Material Co., Ltd. Wanhua material: 23000 yuan / ton

Shandong Bosu New Material Co., Ltd. Shanghai Material: 21500 yuan / ton

In the future, traders are cautious in quoting and have heard about the low price. At present, there is resistance to high prices in the downstream. Analysts of business community aggregate MDI expect that the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market is mainly volatile.

1、 Trend analysis

On November 11, the spot copper price was 51965 yuan / ton, down 0.46% from the previous day, 5.98% higher than the beginning of the year, and 10.13% higher than the same period last year. Shanghai copper main shock operation after the opening, closed at 51930 yuan, down 0.40%. Luntong copper’s 3-month contract rebounded after a small low opening, closing at $6952, down 0.14%.

In terms of supply, the copper concentrate market remains tight. However, the import volume of copper from June to September was amazing, with the average monthly import of refined copper reaching more than 500000 tons. According to the import volume of non forged copper and copper materials in October, the import volume of refined copper in October was about 400000 tons. With a large number of imports, refined copper is gradually becoming abundant. In terms of demand, domestic terminal consumption shows differentiation, and the demand for cables is not good, while the growth of automobile and household appliances is driven by growth. In the next two months, we will focus on the power data. Spot market, traders cautious mood, downstream just need to purchase, the overall transaction is general.

In view of the above situation, there is a possibility of demand acceleration at the end of the year for power grid investment, automobile production and sales have been increasing for seven consecutive months, copper processing fee TC remains low, copper price has support at the bottom, and space below is limited.

At the beginning of November, the price of nitrile rubber increased significantly. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of nitrile rubber was 18200 yuan / ton on November 1 and 19100 yuan / ton on November 6. The price of nitrile rubber increased by 4.95% in just six days.

First of all, at the beginning of the month, the ex factory price of NBR manufacturers increased significantly. In just six days, the ex factory prices of some manufacturers increased twice, driving up the market sentiment. According to the monitoring of business agency, the listing price of NBR in Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was increased by 700 yuan / ton on November 2: at present, n41e reported 16500 yuan / ton, 3305e reported 17100 yuan / ton, 3308e reported 17700 yuan / ton; Ningbo shunze nitrile rubber ex factory price increased by 400 yuan / ton, the current nitrile 28 series reported 17800 yuan / ton, 3355 / 3365 / 3345 price was 18000 yuan / ton, 3380 yuan / ton.

On November 5, the listed price of NBR in Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was increased by 500 yuan / ton: at present, n41e was quoted at 17000 yuan / ton, 3305e was at 17600 yuan / ton, 3308e was at 18200 yuan / ton; the ex factory price of Ningbo shunze nitrile rubber was increased by 300 yuan / ton, and the current nitrile 3355 factory was 18300 yuan / ton.

Secondly, the price of raw materials remains high, and the cost side is still strongly supported. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of November 6, the butadiene price was 9142 yuan / ton; as of November 6, the ex factory price of acrylonitrile Shanghai Secco was 9200 yuan / ton. The prices of raw materials are in the high stage.

Finally, the epidemic situation in foreign countries is becoming more and more serious, and the demand gap of medical nitrile latex gloves is huge, which leads to the high demand of nitrile rubber latex and the difficulty to find bulk goods in the market, which forms a strong support for the whole nitrile market.

Aftermarket forecast: NBR analysts believe that the high price of raw materials, coupled with strong downstream demand, NBR prices will continue to remain high in the short term.

1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose. The quoted price rose from 1790.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1793.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 3.33 yuan / ton or 0.19%, 2.09% higher than the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, and the urea commodity index on November 6 was 83.41.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation point of view, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong area rose this week. At the end of this week, the price of Yangmei plain urea was 1790 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1790 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the price of open water urea was 1800 yuan / ton this weekend, which was increased by 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the domestic demand is fair, the agricultural demand in the northern region has followed up, and the industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. On the supply side, some enterprises limited production and equipment maintenance, resulting in local spot shortage.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the overall decline of urea upstream products this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell, with the quotation of liquefied natural gas falling from 3776.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3696.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a decrease of 2.12%, 12.12% compared with the same period of last year; the price of liquid ammonia fell this week, from 3193.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3133.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.88% compared with the same period last year 19% year on year. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly this week, rising by 1.99% from 5866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5983.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Overall, this week’s urea cost support is weak.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of November, the market price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly. Urea analysts of the business club believe that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry is still enthusiastic about urea procurement, and the industrial demand is to be purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise slightly.

The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on November 7 was 38.16, unchanged with yesterday, down 62.59% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), and 27.24% higher than 29.99, the lowest point on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

Price rise and fall of domestic main hydrobenzene markets from November 2 to 6 (unit: yuan / ton)

Regional prices rose and fell weekly on the 2nd and 6th

East China 3550-3650 3750-3800 + 175

Shandong 3350-3400 3550-3600 + 200

This week (November 2-6), the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province rose, at 3375 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3575 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 200 yuan / ton.

Summary of Sinopec’s pure benzene price adjustment in November 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

November 4 3750 + 150

In November 2020, Sinopec’s pure benzene price will be increased by 150 yuan / ton, and 3750 yuan / ton will be implemented by all its refineries.

Due to the strong ex factory benzene price of Shandong Petrochemical Co., Ltd., the ex factory price of pure benzene was further increased by the end of October At the end of the week, the styrene market dropped slightly, the price of hydrogenated benzene fell slightly, and the tender price of crude benzene rose on Thursday.

As for the future market, the business agency believes that the price of styrene to pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene has been reduced this week. Affected by the rising cost of raw materials, the downstream profit is reduced, and the supply and demand side of pure benzene is weak. There is a certain pressure on the upward trend. It is expected that the future market will be dominated by high consolidation.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China fell this week, with the quotation falling by 2.40% from 312.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 305.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Overall, the market of hydrochloric acid fell this week, and the commodity index of hydrochloric acid on November 6 was 80.26.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation point of view, this week hydrochloric acid Market manufacturer quotation falls, the overall market is general. The quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid is 480 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable; Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 700 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 230 yuan / T at weekend, which is 30 yuan / t lower than that at the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 210 yuan / T at weekend, compared with the beginning of the week It increased by 40 yuan / ton.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is generally in general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the downstream silica market has a downward trend recently, and the market price of ammonium chloride is rising steadily, which has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. This week, the hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to rise slightly, and the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem.

3、 Future forecast

The recent market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is general, while the market of silica and ammonium chloride in the downstream is slightly improved. Business agency analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has risen slightly in the near future.

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market continued its downward trend this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3330 yuan / ton, down 1.19% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene prices continued to fall this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in South China and central China will cut the price of xylene by about 100 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is high. At present, the port inventory in East China is about 135000 tons, which is about 5000 tons lower than last week. The pressure to go to the warehouse is not reduced, the price is weak, and the demand has not improved. Market oversupply, downstream Px, gasoline blending demand is general. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3430 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the outcome of the US election, the progress of the US economic stimulus plan, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East and the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

In terms of crude oil, API and EIA data released in the early morning and night of Beijing time showed that the crude oil storage data of the United States last week was significantly lower than expected, and the news that OPEC + and Russia are considering a more substantial reduction in production at the beginning of next year boosted the bottom of the international crude oil recovery at the beginning of the week. However, the new epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is becoming more and more severe, and the result of the US election is still pending, which makes the market sense As of Friday, Brent rose 2.095 USD / barrel to 38.3 USD / barrel, up 5.79% from last week. At present, the main uncertain factors in the market come from the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States and the uncertainty of the US presidential election. The final direction of crude oil will not take further action until the demand side is better and the US election is clear. In the medium term, oil prices mainly depend on the recovery of demand side and the direction of macro market.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price was about 498 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 516 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will continue to decline. In terms of PTA market, the market price continued to decline this week. The domestic PTA spot market price was about 3126 yuan / ton, and the external price was about 421 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will continue to decline next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec quoted 4400 yuan / T of o-benzene, and the external price of o-benzene was about 532 USD / T FOB Korea and 553 USD / T CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will continue to decline next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that xylene in domestic market will be weak and fluctuate slightly next week.