1、 Price trend

As of November 5, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 14166.67 yuan / ton, up 2.41% from the beginning of the week, down 4.49% month on month and 7.21% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

R22 market rose this week, with prices generally rising by 300-500 yuan / ton. This round of rise is mainly due to the reduction of quota. For example, Shandong Dongyue has few quotas left, and the manufacturers’ price sentiment is rising again. At the same time, chloroform market at the raw material end is rising sharply, hydrofluoric acid is weak and stable, and the support force is fair. Supported by the quota and cost, the price of refrigerant R22 rebounds, but the support force of demand side is weak and continues to be sluggish. Therefore, there is no actual driving force for R22 to go up sharply for the time being Weak market stability or will continue. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of November 5, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in refrigerant R22 market are about 13000-16000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is slightly lower.

Enterprise products rose and fell from November 5 to October 30

Zhejiang Juhua R22 13000 yuan / ton 12500 yuan / ton 500 yuan

Jiuzhou chemical R22 13000 yuan / ton 12500 yuan / ton 500 yuan

Longxun trade R22 12800 yuan / ton 12500 yuan / ton 300 yuan

Shanghai lengqi R22 13000 yuan / ton 12500 yuan / ton 500 yuan

Lengwang technology R22 15000 yuan / T —-

Xileng chemical R22 15800 yuan / ton 15800 yuan / ton

In the later stage, the price of fluorfluoric acid is expected to be stable. However, the domestic manufacturers are expected to maintain a stable supply rate of RMB 770 / d. however, the domestic manufacturers are expected to maintain a stable supply rate of RMB 770 per day.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, due to the continuous high price of liquid chlorine for raw materials, the market of chloroform in Shandong has risen sharply. As of November 4, the average price of chloroform in Shandong was about 2300 yuan / ton, up 15% compared with the beginning of the month and 21.05% higher than the same period of last month. At present, the domestic trichloromethane market is running stably for the time being. Enterprises are not starting high. The overall supply and demand of the industry are weak. The downstream market is mainly wait-and-see. In the future market, we need to pay attention to the raw material market. It is expected that the price of chloroform will remain stable in a short period of time.

3、 Future forecast

Refrigerants of business agency believe that the price of refrigerant R22 rebounds due to the support of quota and cost, but the support force of demand side is weak and continues to be depressed. Therefore, there is no actual driving force for R22 to rise sharply. It is expected that R22 will stabilize after rising in the short term, so we should wait and see carefully.

According to the data of bulk commodity list of business agency, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province on the 3rd day was 1066.67 yuan / ton, and that on the 4th day was 1100.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.12%. The current price is up 8.20% month on month, and the current price is down 0.30% year on year.

Recently, the domestic market price of formaldehyde is on the rise. As of November 4, the mainstream factory quotation in Central China is about 1055 yuan / ton, that of North China is 860 yuan / ton, and that of East China is 1090 yuan / ton. Linyi Yinhe formaldehyde production capacity is 120000 tons / year, and the formaldehyde plant is normal, with a daily output of 200 tons. Recently, the formaldehyde plant in Shandong Province has been in normal operation. The trading atmosphere in the market was better than that in the earlier period, the actual transaction was ok, and the formaldehyde market was slightly higher.

Situation of upstream methanol: Recently, the domestic methanol market rebounded, and some manufacturers continued to increase the ex factory quotation, and the price adjustment range was about 30-50 yuan / ton in two days. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong Province was 1882 yuan / ton on November 1, and 1902 yuan / ton on November 3 in Shandong Province. The price cycle increased by 1.06%, and the price rose by 5.99% month on month, with a year-on-year decrease of 38.26%. The methanol market quotation in various regions has also increased to varying degrees, especially in Shandong, Anhui and Fujian. The main factors of this price rise are the favorable futures, the rebound of international crude oil price, the maintenance of production enterprises in some regions, the low inventory, and the favorable influence of the recovery of downstream demand. In the short term, the positive factors will still remain for a period of time, traders are full of bullish mentality. Methanol market rise gives formaldehyde cost support.

In the near future, the demand for formaldehyde in traditional downstream timber and infrastructure formwork is fair, and the on-site trading atmosphere is relatively positive, and the support from the demand side is good. Formaldehyde manufacturers inventory low, rising market.

In recent days, the upstream raw material methanol continued to rise, and the cost side support was good. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business society predicted that the formaldehyde price in Shandong Province would rise slightly in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 4, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6550 yuan / ton. Compared with November 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol decreased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.51%; compared with October 1, the average price was increased by 217 yuan / ton, or 3.42%.

In October, the overall market of n-butanol increased significantly. After the National Day holiday, the transaction center of n-butanol market continued to move towards the high-end. On October 22, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased to 6633 yuan / ton, 300 yuan / ton, or 4.74% higher than that at the beginning of the month. Then, the overall market entered a high stable operation channel. Until the end of the month, due to the decline of downstream butyl propyl butyl products and the original As of October 31, the reference value of domestic n-butanol factory was 6583 yuan / ton, which was 250 yuan / ton or 3.95% higher than that in early October.

In November and November 3, the consolidation of the mainstream price of n-butanol in China is weakening. Some factories in Shandong Province have reduced the ex factory quotation of n-butanol by 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream just needs to purchase. At present, as of the 4th, Shandong lihuayi n-butanol is delivered at 6550 yuan / ton. The price of n-butanol in Luxi Chemical Industry is 6400 yuan / ton.

Upstream, on November 4, the propylene market price in Shandong still rose. According to the price chart of business agency, propylene price remained stable in the first half of October and plummeted by more than 10% in the second half. Since November 1, there has been a correction in prices. Today, most enterprises’ prices continue to rise slightly, up about 5 yuan / ton. Since November, they have risen by 150-200 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is between 6700 yuan / ton and 7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the shipment situation of the manufacturer is better than that in the earlier stage.

Export has increased, in the short term n-butanol consolidation

At present, due to the weakening of butyl ester, n-butanol trading atmosphere is light, but many factories still maintain stable market quotation. In addition, overseas demand has increased, which gives support to the domestic market of n-butanol. Therefore, the n-butanol datagrapher of the business club believes that the domestic n-butanol market will mainly be consolidation operation in the future.

Today (11.4) the domestic methanol market continued to rise, and some manufacturers continued to increase the ex factory quotation by about 50 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 1882 yuan / ton on November 1, and 1940 yuan / ton on November 4. The price cycle increased by 3.05%, the price rose by 8.08% month on month, and decreased by 9.77% year on year. Affected by the weather in some areas, there is no quotation for shutdown and maintenance of the device. At present, the inventory of production enterprises is not high, and the attitude of the industry is optimistic. At present, the profits of traders are fair, and the methanol analysts of the business society predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate in the short term.

As of 11.4, summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Regional price

Qinghai Area/

RMB 1750-1760 / t spot exchange in Shanxi

RMB 1780-1800 per ton in Liaoning

2000-2005 yuan / ton, tax included tank discharge in Fujian area

The factory reference of Lianghu area is 1920-2000 yuan / ton

Anhui Province 1930-1950 yuan / T acceptance delivery

Henan Province factory reference 1780-1800 yuan / ton

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of November 4, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 22500 yuan / ton. Compared with October 31, the average price was increased by 2100 yuan / ton, or 10.29%. Compared with October 1, the average price was increased by 4700 yuan / ton, or 26.40%.

In October, domestic silicone DMC market “soared up” all the way, singing very close

After the National Day in October, the domestic silicone DMC market began to rise steadily. The downstream demand was good, the procurement was normal, the upstream and downstream conduction support was smooth, and the market situation was good. At the end of the first half of the month, the domestic silicone DMC mainstream quotation reference was 18000-18500 yuan / ton, and the increase was around 400-600 yuan / ton in half a month.

Since the second half of the month, the latest transaction price of silicone DMC market has moved closer to the high-end market again, and the rising strength continues to increase. The low-end offer continues to decrease, and the high-low price gap is constantly narrowing. The industry is full of confidence, and the rising sentiment is high. The single rise of monomer factory is about 500 yuan / ton. Close to the end of the month, the phenomenon of market closure increased. At the same time, the major monomer factories once again opened the curtain of collective rise, with an increase range of 200-600 yuan / ton, and the high-end offer has exceeded 20500 yuan / ton. As of October 31, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in mainstream areas of data monitoring is 20400 yuan / ton, which is 2600 yuan / ton, or 14.61% higher than that on October 1.

In November, silicone DMC has broken through 22000 yuan / ton to meet the “soaring price and be reluctant to sell”!

In November, the silicone DMC remained high until the factory was reluctant to sell, and many factories closed the offer. According to the data of only a few offer factories, the price of silicone DMC has exceeded 22500 yuan / ton, and the basic transaction price has exceeded 22000 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory is low, the factory is reluctant to sell, and the closing phenomenon is not alleviated, so the market is slightly chaotic The high price quoted by the carrier has exceeded 23000 yuan / ton. As of the 4th day, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream areas was 22500 yuan / ton. Compared with October 31, the average price was increased by 2100 yuan / ton, or 10.29%. Compared with October 1, the average price was increased by 4700 yuan / ton, or 26.40%.

Downstream, raw materials continue to rise, downstream raw rubber silicone market also followed the pace of rise. At present, the mainstream offer of raw rubber is around 22000-22500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream offer of silica gel is 22000-23000 yuan / ton. At present, the attitude of the manufacturers to support the price is still unchanged, the upstream and downstream transmission is smooth, and the goods are actively prepared. It is expected to be strong in the short term.

The arrangement is compact, the downstream stock is positive, and there is still a small upward space under the high and stable market

At present, the silicone DMC manufacturers have a compact list, low inventory, and active downstream goods taking. The silicone Data Engineer of the business agency believes that under the support of the good, the silicone DMC will mainly run with high stability in the short term, or there will still be a small upward space.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the melamine market has been running steadily. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of November 3, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 5983.33 yuan / ton, which was 4.97% higher than last Tuesday (October 27) and 6.85% higher than that of October 3.

The supply of goods in the market is tight, and there is no pressure on enterprises to take goods. The market prices in some regions are rising and the market is running steadily. At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Shandong is around 6000 yuan / ton, that in Xinjiang is about 5100 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is about 5700 yuan / ton, and that in Henan is around 5900 yuan / ton.

For upstream urea, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose on November 2, 13.33 yuan / ton, or 0.75% higher than that on October 30. The recent high-level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has a good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has been followed up, appropriate procurement, industrial demand is in line with the market, mainly follow-up on bargain hunting, and some goods sources continue to gather in port. In terms of supply, some enterprises limited production and equipment maintenance, and local spot shortage.

On November 2, the commodity price index of urea and melamine was 123.67, which was 2.68 points lower than yesterday, 9.89% lower than 137.25 points (2020-04-21), and 54.09% higher than 80.26 points, the lowest point on October 14, 2013. (Note: period refers to 2012-01-01 to present)

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts from the business agency believe that the upstream urea price has risen slightly in the near future, and the supply side is tight, and the market performance is fair. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be strong and stable, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance for the specific trend.

Last week, the domestic butadiene market rose sharply, and the domestic butadiene market rose at the beginning of this week. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price remained at 9200 yuan / ton from October 26 to November 3, with the price rising by 45.14% month on month and 0.84% year-on-year. In terms of enterprises, the price of butadiene offered by Sinopec sales companies remained at 9200 yuan / T; in terms of market, at present, the business offers fluctuated little, and downstream inquiries were cautious. As of today’s (11.3), the reference price for delivery in Shandong Province is 9150-9250 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu Province is about 8800-9100 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu Province is 9000-9400 yuan / ton. Business agency butadiene analysts predict that tomorrow’s domestic butadiene market will consolidate and wait and see.

The external supply price of butadiene of Sinopec production enterprises is as follows:

Enterprise price (yuan / ton) device dynamics

Normal operation of 9200 165000 T / a unit in Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd

Normal operation of 92001200 T / a unit in SINOPEC

Normal operation of 92012000t / a unit of Yangzi Petrochemical Company

Sinopec’s 92.2 million T / a plant is in normal operation and mainly supplied by each other

Maoming Petrochemical’s 92.015 million T / a unit is in normal operation, mainly supplied by each other and exported in a small amount

Guangzhou Petrochemical’s 92.03 million T / a plant is in normal operation, mainly supplied by each other and exported in a small amount

Shutdown maintenance of Wuhan ethylene 9200 130000 T / a plant

External market: as of November 2, the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at 1075-1085 US dollars / ton; CFR China closed at 1075-1085 US dollars / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 695-705 US dollars / ton; FD northwest Europe closed at 535-545 euro / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market was mainly adjusted in October, and the offer was arranged and operated. Spot prices of various brands have been up and down. As of November 1, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8150 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic (Shandong) market of PP upstream propylene was stable in the first half of October, and plummeted by more than 10% in the second half. In the first half of the month, some propylene units were overhauled, and the overall supply remained tight. The monthly high price was 7530 yuan / ton on October 8 and 9. However, there were a large number of goods inflow in Northeast China at the end of last week, and the pressure on manufacturers and dealers to ship goods increased, and the operation was biased to yield profits. Downstream continued a small number of low-cost procurement, the market trading atmosphere is weak. At the end of the month, the price is 6736 yuan / ton. On the whole, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is gradually increasing. The price of far upstream crude oil is going down, the downstream supply is sufficient, and external sources are entering. The market is slightly negative, and the price has dropped a lot in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will be affected by detailed inventory in the near future, or stabilize after a small decline.

Propylene fell after rising in October, insufficient support for PP cost side. According to the data monitored by the business agency, PP (wire drawing) market performance is relatively stable this month. Downstream demand is high after the festival, which has a certain support for the spot price. In terms of inventory, the cumulative inventory of petrochemicals exceeded expectations in the last ten days of this month, but the inventory level was still in the moderate position in season, and the port inventory was still low. Although the increase before the festival makes the recent PP gradually appear high pressure, but at the end of the month, some enterprises temporarily shut down, and the ex factory prices of the two oil parts are stable. In terms of demand, at present, the sentiment of downstream inquiry is flat, and the trading just needs to be given priority to, focusing on the low price. Automobile, household electrical appliances and other closed parts industry demand is strong, and the response of the external plate film material market is not good. PP analysts are concerned about the impact of new capacity that may be released in November on the spot price of PP.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of November 1, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 8283.33 yuan / ton. 80% lower than the average price at the beginning of the month. The monthly high appeared early on the 14th at 8383.33 yuan / ton, and the overall operation was stable in the first half of the month. At the end of the month, the average operating rate of domestic PP producers dropped by about 3% compared with that before the festival. However, at present, the supply of fiber material market is sufficient and the competition pressure among refineries is great. Although some fiber material profit recovery, downstream buying enthusiasm is general. In terms of futures, the amplitude of shock is gradually increasing, and it is difficult to say the impact on the mentality of the operators, and the business operation tends to be cautious. In November, demand began to weaken from the peak, the current market to wait-and-see atmosphere. PP (fiber) is expected to be finished in the near future.

PP melt blown material market finishing in October, domestic PP melt blown material market overall confidence is still not strong. According to the data monitored by the business agency, since October, PP (melt blown) material has been adjusted. As of November 1, the average price of sample enterprises is about 14100.00 yuan / ton. At present, the epidemic situation in China is generally stable. Recently, relevant experts have taken the lead to consolidate the epidemic prevention measures and strictly prevent the rebound. At the end of the month, many places in Shandong and Xinjiang were tentatively designated as medium and high-risk areas, and the demand may come next, which has not yet been reflected in the spot price. The trend of the second outbreak of overseas epidemic is obvious, many countries announced to close the city again, the non-woven fabric in the application of medical protection is sought after again, the demand is expected to rise, and the production capacity of China is expected. However, due to the competition of domestic anti epidemic product manufacturers, the profits of enterprises are seriously diluted, and the price of meltblown fabrics and materials is difficult to rise. At present, the price of PP (melt blown) is relatively low, and it is expected that the melt blown material will recover due to the influence of demand expansion in the near future.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: October domestic PP spot market prices are generally stable. Upstream propylene market high down, price reduction, the cost of PP support weakened. PP (drawing) new production capacity late, price temporarily stable. PP (fiber) market shock finishing, PP (melt blown) demand is expected to rise. At the end of the month, petrochemicals inventory decreased smoothly, and the recent trend of futures rose, which was good for spot. Downstream factory stock purchase just need to operate, conflict with high price goods, business mentality is flat. PP spot is expected to strengthen in the near future.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, after more than 10 days of continuous decline, PTA market rose slightly today (November 3). The average price of spot market on that day was 3252 yuan / ton, up 0.27% compared with the previous trading day, and decreased by 33.93% year-on-year. PTA main futures (2101) closed up and closed at 3380, up 26% or 0.78% from the previous trading day. Upstream crude oil stopped falling, and Yangzi Petrochemical PTA unit was overhauled, thus delaying the market atmosphere of fear of falling.

Recent changes of domestic PTA unit: 10000 tons / year

Production enterprise total capacity maintenance capacity maintenance plan

Yangzi Petrochemical 100 35 plans to start maintenance in the afternoon of November 3, and the restart time is to be determined.

Yizheng Chemical Fiber 100 65 will be overhauled on October 12, 2020, and it will start to warm up and restart in the afternoon of October 30. At present, it is running normally.

Yadong Petrochemical 70 70 plans to overhaul from November 13 to November 28, 2020.

In the evening of September 29, 2020, Hanbang Petrochemical Company began to reduce the load and shut down. The material was discharged in the early morning of October 29, and it started operation on October 30, basically full load.

60. From May 9, 2020, it will be shut down for maintenance and restart to be determined.

Chuanneng chemical 100 100 plans to start maintenance for 14 days on October 15, 2020.

Yisheng Dalian 600 375 will reduce the load to 50% on October 26, 2020, and start maintenance for 2 weeks on November 1.

Hengli Dalian 1160 220 will start maintenance on October 18, 2020 and restart on October 31, 2020. At present, it is running at full load basically.

Jialong petrochemical company shut down for maintenance on August 2, 2019, and the restart time is to be determined.

Pengwei Petrochemical 90 90 will be shut down for maintenance on March 9, 2020, and the restart is to be determined.

Tianjin Petrochemical Company shut down for maintenance on April 17, 2020, and restart to be determined.

With the 2.2 million tons of Hanbang petrochemical, 650000 tons of Yizheng Chemical fiber, and 2.2 million tons of Hengli petrochemical, the operating rate of the market has reached more than 86%. In addition, another 1.1 million tons of PTA new production capacity of Dushan energy phase II will be put into operation, and the supply side pressurization still exists. Today, Yangzi Petrochemical announced that the 350000 ton unit planned to start maintenance, which can relieve the pressure of PTA supply to a certain extent.

Crude oil prices rebounded slightly on November 2, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $36.81/barrel. The demand for heating in winter has led to a further increase in crude oil demand. Meanwhile, OPEC + alliance is considering delaying the planned increase in supply in January, which has played a positive role in the rise of crude oil price.

However, compared with October, the downstream polyester market began to return to rationality in November, and the market wait-and-see sentiment increased. Both textile enterprises, textile mills and traders were basically cautious, with polyester operating load around 86%. In terms of price, the price of polyester filament factory is stable temporarily, and the mainstream polyester POY (150D / 48F) in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is quoted at 5200-5500 yuan / ton. In terms of starting rate, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 93%. As of November 3, the starting rate of water jet and air-jet looms in Shengze area is about 80-90%. In terms of inventory, as of November 3, the inventory of grey fabric weaving in Shengze area was more than 40 days, and some manufacturers were difficult to make flat production and sales, and began to accumulate.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the international crude oil price rebounds in the short term and the cost side is favorable. But at present, PTA spot is sufficient, processing costs are high and new production capacity is about to be put into operation, and the downstream polyester demand market lacks confidence. It is expected that PTA market will continue to rebound, with insufficient power.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price fell slightly on the 2nd, with the spot nickel quotation of 118500 yuan / T, down 1.74% compared with the previous trading day, 4.19% higher than that at the beginning of the year, and 13.19% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

On the macro level, the second wave of global epidemic has soared, the European blockade has intensified, and investors have become increasingly worried about global economic growth and metal demand. At the same time, the strength of the US dollar has made us dollar denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies, and further pressured metal prices. On the supply side, with the advent of rainy season in the Philippines, the nickel ore transportation volume decreased significantly. The window period of domestic nickel ore replenishment has passed, and the port nickel mine inventory is at a low level in recent years. The raw material inventory of ferronickel plants is mostly less than March. In the fourth quarter, domestic ferronickel may enter the process of substantial production reduction. However, the production capacity of nickel iron stainless steel in Indonesia continues to be put into production, and the future supply will further increase, squeezing the domestic market. Judging from the situation of downstream stainless steel enterprises, the inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is still on the high side, and the consumption is weak at the end of the year, so the boost of demand side is expected to be limited. In September, Indonesia produced 55700 metal tons of ferronickel, an increase of 6.49% month on month.

3、 Future prospects

Post market forecast: the recent surge in nickel prices has been boosted by some mine closures in the Philippines, but the short-term mine closures are not the fundamental driving force for upward price. In November, the downstream gradually entered the off-season, combined with the impact of the epidemic situation, it is expected that the short-term nickel price will maintain a weak fluctuation.