According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the hydrogen peroxide market began to enter the downward channel in November after experiencing the golden September and silver October, and has dropped by more than 200 yuan / ton from the highest price of 1450 yuan / ton in October, and the market has recovered slightly this week. As of November 18, the price of hydrogen peroxide has dropped to 1290 yuan / ton, down 11.03% from the beginning of November and 0.52% higher than that of last week.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January 2019 to October 2020, it can be seen that the increase of hydrogen peroxide in 2019 is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, and the hydrogen peroxide market drops more in the second half of the year. The price of hydrogen peroxide falls mainly from November to December, with a decrease of more than 10%.

In the first half of 2020, hydrogen peroxide is mainly down, with little rise. In the second half of 2020, the price of hydrogen peroxide rises mainly in September and October. In October, hydrogen peroxide rises by more than 35%, which is the largest increase at present. In November, the market of hydrogen peroxide has been falling for half a month, with a drop of more than 11%.

Hydrogen peroxide stops falling and recovers

This week, the terminal caprolactam market oscillation rose, mainly due to the raw material pure benzene rise, the cost is favorable support, the supply of goods is relatively tight, good increase, caprolactam price rose 1.69%. Under the support of caprolactam market, hydrogen peroxide ended the continuous decline of the market, the market recovered, and the price rose steadily.

In terms of terminal paper, after the end of the first week of November, manufacturers have adjusted the price of corrugated base paper. Nine dragon paper’s Dongguan, Taicang, Tianjin, Chongqing and other bases have increased by 30-100 yuan / ton, and the corrugated base paper price has increased by more than 2%. The rise in the paper market has brought confidence to hydrogen peroxide manufacturers. In addition, hydrogen peroxide has dropped by more than 11% before. Therefore, the terminal market is heating up and manufacturers are eager to try. The hydrogen peroxide market has a rising trend.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business agency, believes that: the prices of terminal paper industry and caprolactam have risen one after another, and the rigid demand supports the future market of hydrogen peroxide is expected to usher in rising sentiment.

According to the price monitoring of business agencies, the domestic PTA spot market has rebounded slightly recently. As of November 18, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 3256 yuan / ton, up 4.41% compared with November 9, and down 32.04% year-on-year. In the futures market, PTA main futures (2101) closed up on November 18 and closed at 3416, up 30% or 0.89% compared with the previous trading day. Strong crude oil and low PTA prices, speculative bottom mentality to support the current price.

Recent domestic PTA unit: 10000 tons / year

Change of enterprise name capacity device

Yangzi Petrochemical 35 will start maintenance in the afternoon of November 3, 2020, and the restart time is to be determined

Yadong Petrochemical 70 overhaul from November 13 to November 28, 2020

Chuanneng chemical 100, November 17, 2020, overhaul for 5 days

Zhongtai Petrochemical 120 will start maintenance for 2 months on September 30, 2020

Hanbang Petrochemical 220 will reduce the load to 60-70% on November 13, 2020, and return to normal on November 14, 2020.

In terms of units, in November, the domestic PTA plant maintenance plan was significantly reduced. At the beginning of the month, Yangzi Petrochemical started to repair 350000 tons, and the restart time is to be determined; Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. of 700000 tons started maintenance for 15 days on the 13th; Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. of 2.2 million tons reduced the load to 60-70% on the 13th and returned to normal on the 14th. Sichuan Energy Investment Co., Ltd. started maintenance for about 5 days on November 17. The operating load of PTA industry is still maintained at a high level of 86%, and the cumulative stock is expected to increase. At present, the social inventory of PTA is nearly 4 million tons, which has increased by 2.6 million tons compared with the same period last year.

The supply and demand side is not good. Some downstream polyester factories promote sales, and the overall production and sales are not booming. The average production and sales of mainstream large factories are 100% – 150%, and some better factories are 170%. The overall inventory is concentrated in 24-36 days. In terms of price, the price of polyester filament factory is stable for the time being, and polyester POY (150D / 48F) of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province is quoted at 5100-5350 yuan / ton. In terms of the starting rate, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms dropped slightly to about 91%.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the current high level of crude oil shocks, PTA accumulates inventory, the market mentality is cautious, and the overall demand is tepid. It is expected that PTA market will fall back in the future.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the market of lithium hydroxide keeps stable. As of November 17, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as last Tuesday (November 10), and fell by 1.80% year-on-year in a half year cycle, according to the data of the business club’s bulk list. In recent years, there are sporadic transactions in the lithium hydroxide Market, the demand is temporarily stable, the overall market is stable, and the price has no obvious fluctuation. At present, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun industry is 53000 yuan / ton, and that of Zigong tongfarong industrial is 53000 yuan / ton. The specific transaction price is discussed in a single way.

Production data of lithium hydroxide: in October 2020, the output of lithium hydroxide of major manufacturers in China was around 9100 tons, with a month on month increase of 4.24% and a year-on-year increase of 65.45%.

Upstream lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate prices showed upward, short-term continued positive. According to the data of the business agency, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on November 16 was 40000 yuan / ton, which was 1.27% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on November 1 was 39500 yuan / ton). On November 16, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44600 yuan / ton, which was 0.9% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China on November 1 was 44200 yuan / ton).

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business club believe that the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream is going up in the near future, the cost side support is strengthened, the downstream demand is temporarily stable, and the transaction is limited. It is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 17, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 7650 yuan / ton. Compared with November 13, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 500 yuan / ton, or 6.99%; compared with November 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 970 yuan / ton, or 16.20%.

The market of n-butanol rose by 16.2% in half a month

At the beginning of November, the domestic market of n-butanol remained weak. During this period, some factories slightly reduced the ex factory quotation of n-butanol. On the 8th, the mainstream quotation of n-butanol market was around 6500-6600 yuan / ton. Since September 9, butyl alcohol downstream users have entered the market to replenish. The spot supply of n-butanol is tight, and the available supply sources are reduced. The quotation of n-butanol factory began to rise, with an increase range of 200-400 yuan / ton. Then the market entered a strong upward channel, with daily increases of 100-200 yuan / ton. On the 16th and 17th, the market price of n-butanol increased sharply again, by 400-500 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 7650 yuan / ton, which is 1150 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month. The ex factory price of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol refers to 7500 yuan / T, which is 950 yuan / T higher than that at the beginning of the month. The ex factory quotation of n-butanol in North China of Wanhua chemical is 7800 yuan / ton, which is 1100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month.

At present, as of the 9th, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6883.33 yuan / ton, up 333 yuan / T, or 5.09%, compared with November 6, and 300 yuan / ton, or 4.56%, compared with November 1. As of the 17th, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 7650 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton or 6.99% compared with November 13, and 970 yuan / ton, or 16.20%, compared with November 1.

On the upstream side, since November 1, the price of upstream propylene market has been reversed. Since November, it has risen 200-250 yuan / ton. After a short period of stabilization, it dropped slightly by about 100 yuan / ton on August 8 and 9 and then stabilized again. On the 12th, it rose 50 yuan / ton again. Then, on the 16th and 17th, today’s price was slightly up and down. At present, the market transaction is between 6830 yuan / ton and 7200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of manufacturers is controllable, and the shipment situation is still ideal.

Short term supply is still tight, n-butanol market overall better

At present, the domestic n-butanol market is in short supply, and most of the transactions are small and medium-sized orders. The shipment in various regions is stable and the market mentality is good. It is expected that the domestic n-butanol market will continue to be good in the short term and run at a high level.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

The market of acrylic acid is rising recently. As of November 17, the average price of acrylic acid quoted in East China was 7933.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, increased by 8.68% compared with last Monday (November 9) and decreased by 25.16% compared with October 17, according to the data of the bulk list of business agencies. The downstream inquiry was active, the purchasing enthusiasm was fair, the trading volume was increased, and the price of acrylic acid market stabilized after rising.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acrylic acid of some enterprises in recent years (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated)

Enterprise market price specification date

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 7800 yuan / T, line standard: ordinary acid; grade: superior product: November 16, 2020

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9500 yuan / T refined acid with 99.7% content on November 16, 2020

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. 7400 yuan / T, line standard: common acid; grade: superior product: November 16, 2020

Aite (Shandong) new material Co., Ltd. is 7400 yuan / T. the industry standard is: common acid; the grade is superior product; November 14, 2020

Upstream propylene, on November 17, the market price of propylene in Shandong was almost stable. According to the price chart of business agency, propylene price remained stable in the first half of October and plummeted by more than 10% in the second half. Since November 1, the price has been adjusted back. Since November 1, the price has risen by 200-250 yuan / ton. After a short period of stabilization, the price dropped slightly by about 100 yuan / ton on August 9 and then stabilized again. On the 12th, it rose 50 yuan / ton again and stabilized again. Today, it continues to be stable, with individual enterprises’ prices rising slightly. At present, the market turnover is between 6830 yuan / ton and 7200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of manufacturers is controllable, and the shipment situation is still ideal.

3、 Future forecast

The acrylic acid analysts of the business agency believe that the price of raw material propylene is temporarily stable, the cost support is acceptable, and the downstream inquiry and purchase are increasing. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

Price trend of 441 silicon

On November 17, the price of silicon metal (441) rose slightly. According to the data of the business agency, on November 17, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 12858.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.40% compared with the average market price of 11650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (11.1); compared with the average market price of 10491.67 yuan / ton in the valley value (7.1), the increase was 22.56%; compared with the average market price at the beginning of the year (1.1), the average price was 11833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.66%.

On the 17th, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 12300-12500 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan is 12600-12700 yuan / ton, that of Kunming is 12600-12700 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai is 13500-13700 yuan / ton, that of Tianjin port is 12900-13100 yuan / ton, and that of Huangpu port is 12800-12900 yuan / ton 。

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis

In recent years, the market of propylene oxide has been rising strongly. As of November 16, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 17366.67 yuan / ton, up 18.95% compared with last Monday (November 9) and 8.44% lower than that on October 16, according to the data of the business club. The inventory of propylene oxide plant is pressureless, some of which are controlled. The inventory of raw materials downstream of the terminal is low, and the willingness to replenish is strong, which supports the price rise of propylene oxide. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 16800-17300 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, November 16, Shandong propylene market price fluctuated slightly. According to the price chart of business agency, propylene price remained stable in the first half of October and plummeted by more than 10% in the second half. Since November 1, the price has been adjusted back. Since November 1, the price has risen 200-250 yuan / ton. After a short period of stabilization, the price dropped slightly by about 100 yuan / ton on August 8 and 9 and then stabilized again. On the 12th, it rose 50 yuan / ton and then stabilized again. Today’s price is up and down slightly. The market transaction is between 6830 yuan / ton and 7200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of manufacturers is controllable, and the shipment situation is still ideal.

As of November 13, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was 11466.67 yuan / ton, up 1.78% compared with November 1 For downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 13, the factory average price of domestic propylene glycol was 10666.67 yuan / ton, which was 14.29% higher than the price at the beginning of the month; for downstream soft foam polyether, on November 16, the market price of soft foam polyether in Shandong increased, the price of raw material propylene oxide increased, the cost support was strengthened, and the actual transaction atmosphere in the market was weaker than that of last week The mainstream price of common soft foam polyether in Shandong is around 17700-19000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene oxide analysts of the business agency believe that at present, the upstream propylene market price fluctuates slightly, the propylene oxide manufacturers have no pressure control, the downstream polyether rises and rises, and the market is stable. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will mainly operate at a high level, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance for the specific trend.

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price rose in a wide range in November, and the zinc market rose. As of November 16, the average price of zinc was 20650.00 yuan / ton, which was 2.63% higher than that of November 1, 20120.00 yuan / ton.

Export data of household appliances

Commodity name: unit of measurement: September 2020 January to September 2020 accumulative period: January to September 2019: 1 to current month% compared with the same period last year

Quantity amount quantity amount quantity amount quantity amount

Household appliances: 34245.5 453.7 239199.4 3246.9 221169.7 2768.2 8.2 17.3

According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, the export volume of household appliances in September was 342.455 million units, and the total export volume from January to September was 2391.994 million units, with a cumulative increase of 8.2% over the same period of last year, and the export volume and amount increased significantly year on year. The demand for zinc ingot in home appliance industry is rising, and the market of zinc is increasing.

Car production data

According to the statistics of the China Academy of Commerce and industry, in October 2020, the production and sales of automobiles will reach 2.522 million and 2.573 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 0.9% and 0.1% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 11.0% and 12.5%. Since the second quarter of 2020, the domestic automobile output has been steadily rising, and the domestic automobile industry has recovered. The demand for zinc ingots in the automobile industry is rising, which is good for the zinc market.

Analysis, review and Prospect

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, zinc ingots are widely used, which can be divided into several categories: infrastructure, household appliances, automobiles, etc. From the export data of home appliances, it can be seen that the domestic home appliance market is more favorable, the demand for zinc market is rising, and the auto industry market is gradually warming up, which is further favorable to the zinc market. Although the infrastructure construction has declined due to the impact of the epidemic, with the recovery of domestic economy, the infrastructure construction has gradually recovered, and the negative effect on the zinc market demand has weakened. Generally speaking, the recovery of home appliance export and automobile industry stimulated the demand of zinc market, and the upward momentum of zinc market increased. Zinc prices are expected to rise in the future.

1、 Trend analysis

On November 16, the spot copper price was 53705 yuan / ton, which was 3.22% higher than the previous day, 9.53% higher than the beginning of the year, and 14.39% higher than the same period last year. Shanghai copper’s main force rose sharply to 53800 yuan today, and since then it has been operating in a narrow range, closing at 53640 yuan, up 2.80%. Luntong copper’s 3-month contract fluctuated after the opening, and then fluctuated after a sharp rise. The Asian market closed at US $7170.5, up 2.44%.

Copper prices rose sharply today, with RCEP agreement boosting market sentiment at the beginning of the week. However, macroeconomic data in October showed that the domestic economy recovered steadily, domestic terminal market demand performed well, automobile production and sales showed growth for seven consecutive months, investment in real estate development increased, and electricity consumption of the whole society increased year on year in September.

According to the data of CAAC, the auto sales volume in October reached 2.573 million units, up 12.5% year-on-year. As of October, automobile production and sales showed growth for seven consecutive months. Among them, the growth rate of sales volume remained above 10% for six consecutive months. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to September, the investment in real estate development increased by 5.6% year on year, 1% higher than that in the previous eight months, and the real estate boom has rebounded for many months. In addition, the demand for cables, transportation and electronic terminals also recovered significantly.

In addition, the weekly inventory of the previous period continued to drop sharply, with a decrease of more than 10% last week. On November 13, London Metal Exchange (LME) reported the latest inventory of 165200 tons of copper, 1000 tons less than the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.60%.

In view of the above situation, the macro boost, good supply and demand structure, strong demand superimposed on the current low inventory, copper prices may still have a certain upward space in the future.

In November, the domestic epoxy resin market rose sharply. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the liquid resin price in East China is 29500-30000 yuan / ton, and the current liquid resin price has reached the peak value in nearly three years. In terms of factories, in November, most factories closed their offer and did not quote. This week, the prices of major factories were quoted one after another, which was true. Among them, the reference offers of Yangnong Jinhu, Nantong Xingchen and Baling Petrochemical were 29500 yuan / ton, and those of Changchun chemical and Jiangsu Sanmu were listed at 30000 yuan / ton.

Epoxy resin has been going up like crazy. On the one hand, orders from downstream markets are constantly on the one hand, and there is no pressure on factories to ship. On the other hand, under the stimulation of mutual benefit, first of all, epoxy resin stimulates the upstream raw material bisphenol A to pull up, and then the supply of bisphenol A enters a tense situation, which further rises under the shortage of supply, which in turn further stimulates the epoxy resin to continue to catch up. The details are as follows:

On the one hand, the downstream wind power industry of epoxy resin continued to make efforts. It is reported that GWEC predicts that the world’s new wind power installed capacity will reach a record 71.3gw in 2020 (the original record was 63.8 GW in 2015), which is only 6% lower than the forecast at the beginning of the year (before the new crown epidemic). In 2021, the global installed capacity will be further increased to 78gw, because some wind power projects delayed by the epidemic this year will be installed next year.

At the same time, based on the judgment of the “rush to install” trend of China’s market, GWEC’s forecast of the global offshore wind power installation in 2020 is higher than that before the epidemic. In the five years from 2020 to 2024, more than half of the world’s new wind power installed capacity will come from the two major markets of China and the United States, and the cumulative installed capacity of global wind power will exceed 1 tw (1 billion kw) by 2024.

On the other hand, from the cost side analysis, the cost side of raw materials “soaring” is strong. One of the most important raw materials is bisphenol A. The bisphenol a market was first affected by the sharp upward trend of the downstream epoxy resin industry. At the beginning of November, the bisphenol a market rose by nearly 20%. On the first working day of last week’s opening, the factories increased 600-800 yuan / ton one after another, and the mainstream offer of the factory was 14800 yuan / ton, a new high in the year. However, most of the opening factories closed their offers this week, among which Lihua yiweiyuan’s guiding price was 18200 yuan / ton, while in the market, there were few offers from shippers, domestic supply was very tight, and only a small number of large traders still had goods in their hands, and it was heard that today’s small order was 18500 yuan / ton, and there was still room for expansion in the current tight supply.

Another important raw material epichlorohydrin market also showed a rising trend. At present, epichlorohydrin closed at 12600 yuan / T, with no intention of downward adjustment.

From the current point of view, although the gross profit of epoxy resin is rich, the orders of major factories are relatively sufficient. Next month, there are Changchun chemical industry’s 15 day shutdown and maintenance plan from December 10 to 25, Nantong Xingchen’s 10 day annual shutdown maintenance plan in late December, and Kunshan Guodu is expected to temporarily fail to resume production, and the overall output of the whole month will be reduced by nearly 20000 tons There will still be a tight supply situation, there is little possibility that the resin factory will yield profits, the market will still be in short supply, and the price forecast is still likely to rise.

From the perspective of business agencies, the short-term epoxy resin market has no downward expectation under the tense situation of factory supply. The current factory orders are sufficient, and the short-term liquid epoxy resin will run at about 30000 yuan / ton.