1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic spot price of polyester staple fiber decreased slightly this week. As of November 20, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 5738 yuan / ton, down 0.34% compared with November 14, and 17.05% lower than that on November 14. In the futures market, on November 20, the staple short fiber Futures (2105) closed up at 6006, up 50% or 0.84% from last Friday. Crude oil and PTA rebound driven futures rebound, downstream demand fell, spot trend weak.

2、 Factors affecting prices

1. PTA: domestic PTA spot market rebounded slightly this week. At the end of this week, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 3273 yuan / ton, which was 1.36% higher than last Friday and 30.95% lower than that of last Friday. Crude oil prices rose on news that OPEC may postpone the current production reduction to the first quarter of next year. PTA prices rose in a narrow range driven by the rise of crude oil.

2. Ethylene glycol: the domestic ethylene glycol spot market dropped slightly this week. At the end of this week, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 3634 yuan / ton, down 1.77% and 23.1% compared with last Friday. Supply rebounded due to the addition of domestic units and the restart of maintenance units. At the same time, the downstream chemical fiber market gradually into the off-season, production and sales fall. Ethylene glycol in the experience of a month after the decline of the stock again, the price drop is expected to strengthen.

3. Polyester yarn: the domestic polyester yarn market is running smoothly this week. At the end of this week, the average price of 32S polyester yarn spot market in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 13375 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.03%. The yarn Market in Hangzhou, Suzhou and Jiaxing is generally good. Some enterprises lowered their prices and their profit margins were low. The downstream weaving Market is ready for the new year, but the demand is insufficient in the later stage, and polyester yarn is in a weak position.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the downstream spinning and weaving Market in the end of the “double 11″ market and the aggravation of the overseas epidemic situation, domestic and foreign orders have decreased, polyester staple fiber spot market is difficult to have a good market in the short term, and the future market may continue to decline in a weak way. It is expected that before the Spring Festival, the polyester industry chain as a whole will remain weak. However, the current crude oil, PTA positive news rebound, short fiber futures short-term or strong oscillation trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price has been rising continuously after stabilizing this week, with the weekly low price of 6892 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, the weekly high price of 7033 yuan / ton at the weekend, and the weekly increase of 2.04%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, since November 1, the propylene price has dropped sharply at the end of October, and has risen by 200-250 yuan / ton on the 5th. After a short period of stabilization, the price dropped slightly by about 100 yuan / ton on August 8 and 9, and then stabilized again. On the 12th, it rose 50 yuan / ton again, and then fluctuated slightly. On the 19th, it showed a trend of full increase, rising by 50-100 yuan / ton, and again today Generally, the price is raised by about 100 yuan / ton, and the current market turnover is between 6980 yuan / ton and 7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7000 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of the manufacturer is controllable and the shipment situation is ideal.

On November 19, crude oil prices fell slightly, with little impact on propylene.

PP spot price continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 3.77%. The futures market was also relatively ideal, which had a positive impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid market rose significantly this week and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 7.98%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

Propylene oxide market continued to rise sharply this week, with a weekly increase of 9.02%, which also had a more obvious positive effect on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin recovered and stabilized after a small drop this week, with a weekly increase of 3.47% and a weekly amplitude of 5.41%, which had a small positive impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic price of n-butanol continued to rise sharply, and the weekly increase was as high as 15.81%, which had a good effect on propylene.

Octanol market rose significantly this week and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 5.31%, which had a positive impact on propylene.

This week, isopropanol market also continued to rise sharply, with a weekly increase of 18.75%, which also had a good effect on propylene.

This week, phenol in East China still showed a ladder upward trend, with a weekly increase of 6.92%, which had a certain pulling effect on propylene.

This week, East China acetone also continued to rise sharply, with a weekly increase of 16.31%, which also had a more obvious effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: in a comprehensive view, the inventory of propylene manufacturers is controllable, the crude oil price is slightly up and down, and the downstream market is relatively ideal, and the rising trend is obvious. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will continue to rise in the near future.

Market trend of magnesium market in 2020

On November 20, 2020, the price of magnesium ingot (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China will run weakly and stably, with the overall range of 13000-13600 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation is mainly discussed.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu district is 13300-13400 yuan / ton; that in Taiyuan area is 13400-13500 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, it is 13500-13600 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, it is 13350-13400 yuan / ton.

The magnesium ingot is the original magnesium ingot of national standard (GB / t3499-2011); it is not pickled, has no wooden pallet and does not pay the acceptance price, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

Trading improvement & cost rise

At present, the market trading is improving, the downstream rigid demand procurement is increasing, and the demand side is improving. Although the export side of the shipment is not good, domestic market supply and demand in the face of magnesium price support in the near future.

In terms of cost, recently affected by weather and raw material prices, magnesium enterprises in mainstream production areas are willing to raise prices. In addition, since the middle of March this year, the prices of competitive aluminum ingots have been rising, and the prices of magnesium and aluminum have been hanging upside down for a long time. The cost performance ratio of magnesium alloys has increased compared with the previous period, and the downstream demand has slightly improved.

This week, some manufacturers raised their prices. Near the end of the month, some magnesium ingot manufacturers’ demand for fund withdrawal increased, and the increase rate is expected to slow down.

According to the data of business agency, the spot price of gold on November 20 was 391.20 yuan / g, a decrease of 1.56% compared with the average price of 397.40 yuan / G on the spot market at the beginning of the month (11.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year, up 14.21%; the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 17.92%; compared with the peak value (8.7) of the year, the spot price of silver was 448 yuan/ G, down 12.68%.

On November 20, the average silver market price was 5016 yuan / kg, an increase of 1.39% compared with the early average price of 4947.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (November 1); the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01) was 4376.33 yuan / kg, an increase of 14.62%; the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 70.46%; compared with the peak value (8.11) of the year, the spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / kg , down 25.23%.

The price of precious metals is weak and stable

The positive news brought by the new crown vaccine brought a sharp drop in the risk aversion sentiment of the market, and the price of precious metals fluctuated in the first ten days of November. At present, the risk preference of capital in the market is on the rise. Other domestic markets, such as stock market and futures market, have a significant unilateral upward trend, and the price of precious metals is under more pressure.

Since the peak value of precious metal prices in the middle and early August, some profit-making funds have fallen into safety, and the investment enthusiasm has actually begun to slow down. The current round of Dayang market driven by investment demand has started to divert. It is expected that if there is no sudden situation in the near future, it is difficult to re gather the long sentiment, and the price probability rate of precious metal will continue to maintain a weak and stable operation.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China on November 18 was 1800 yuan / ton, up 11.34% from 1616 yuan / ton last week.

2、 Market analysis

Anhui Jinhe quoted 2100-2200 yuan / ton, which was 450-550 yuan / ton higher than last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1900 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton higher than last week; Huainan Aodeli chemical products Sales Co., Ltd. quoted 1900 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, with an increase of 250 yuan / ton compared with last week; Wenshui County Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1530 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, dilute nitric acid The price of nitric acid is 680 yuan / ton, and the price of concentrated nitric acid is flat compared with last week; the quotation of concentrated nitric acid of Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1700 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that of last week; the nitric acid market is in good demand, and nitric acid parking in some areas leads to tight supply of nitric acid products market.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province at the beginning of this week was 2960 yuan / ton, which was 2983 yuan / ton on January 18, up 0.79%; the average market price of aniline at the beginning of this week was 6633 yuan / ton, and the average price on November 18 was 6800 yuan / ton, up 2.51 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid supply is tight, nitric acid analysts of business agency predict that the price will rise mainly.

Trend analysis

According to the business agency data monitoring: this week the cobalt price fell sharply, the cobalt Market weakened. As of November 19, the cobalt price was 2633333.34 yuan / ton, down 1.56% from 267500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (November 16).

Trend of cobalt price in LME Market

It can be seen from the LME cobalt price trend chart that the LME cobalt price fell sharply this week, and the international cobalt market declined, which was negative for the domestic cobalt market, and the downward pressure on domestic cobalt price increased.

New energy vehicle market in Europe

According to the data of the European Automobile Manufacturing Association (AECA), in October 2020, the registered number of new energy vehicles in major European countries (Germany, France, Britain and other eight countries) reached 119000, a year-on-year increase of + 202% and a slight decrease of 8% month on month. Norway, the United Kingdom, Italy and other countries in October had a significant decline in sales. The growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in Europe slowed down, the favorable support of European new energy vehicle market to the international cobalt market was weakened, and the domestic cobalt price was not driven enough.

Market Overview

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, the price of cobalt in the LME market fell this week, while the price of international cobalt fell. The demand for global cobalt market was low and the support of international cobalt market was insufficient. The weakening of the international cobalt Market dragged down the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price fluctuated and fell.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 19th, the nickel price dropped slightly. The spot nickel price was 118400 yuan / ton, down 0.17% from the previous trading day, 4.1% higher than the beginning of the year, and 4.16% lower than the same period last year. Shanghai nickel’s main market opened at 116380 yuan. After the opening, the price first suppressed and then rose, closing at 116470 yuan, up 0.16%. LME3 nickel closed at US $15765, up 0.06%.

2、 Market analysis

On the supply side, domestic nickel ore was tight, and nickel sulfate consumption improved. In October, the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 104.5% year-on-year, and the supply of stainless steel was sufficient. Indonesia’s ferronickel construction step by step, there will be an increase in supply in the future. Nickel iron supply has a loose trend, stainless steel production remains high, consumption performance is flat, forming upward pressure on prices. In the first nine months of this year, the global nickel market oversupplied by 50000 tons, while the global demand decreased by 169 thousand tons compared with the same period last year. The market is oversupply and nickel price is up against resistance.

3、 Future prospects

Aftermarket forecast: nickel ore supply is still tight, stainless steel prices fell sharply, short-term nickel prices are expected to maintain a weak shock operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on November 19, the average price of domestic LNG was 3416.67 yuan / ton, down 2.66% from the previous day, 9.29% from the beginning of the month, 14.27% month on month, and 22.93% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic LNG market entered a downward trend in November, showing a continuous downward trend since the beginning of the month. On the 19th, it fell by 2.66%, and the price in many places was about 50-150 yuan. Domestic LNG opened a downward channel. This round of decline is mainly due to the rapid price rise in the early stage, insufficient follow-up on the demand side, and the emergence of downstream resistance psychology. Some end users prefer alternative energy sources, and their enthusiasm for LNG procurement has decreased. Many liquid plants are not able to deliver goods smoothly, and the price continues to fall. In the middle and north of China, the overall heating and raw gas auction are not expected to be favorable. At the same time, due to the emergency response to heavy polluted weather in some areas such as Hebei and Henan, industrial users have reduced production and the demand has continued to decline. In addition, cold air strikes, rain and snow weather affect logistics, and manufacturers’ shipment may continue to be under pressure. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be weak.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of November 19, the price dropped significantly compared with that of the previous trading day. The average price in Inner Mongolia was around 3360 yuan / ton, falling by 50-230 yuan / ton. The average price in Shaanxi was around 3500 yuan / ton, falling by 50-160 yuan / ton. The average price in Shanxi was around 3820 yuan / ton, falling by 50-150 yuan / ton. In Xinjiang, the average price was around 3380 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton In Ningxia, the average price was around 3440 yuan / ton, down about 100 yuan / ton, while in Sichuan, the average price was around 3550 yuan / ton.

Regional specification quotation (yuan / ton) date

Inner Mongolia LNG 3200-3600 November 19

Shaanxi LNG 3400-3600 November 19

Xinjiang LNG 2900-3600 November 19

Ningxia LNG 3350-3420 November 19

November 19-3500 natural gas in Shanxi

Sichuan LNG 3480-4200 November 19

After the adjustment of methanol price, the price of methanol increased by about 50 yuan / day, and some domestic enterprises reduced the price of methanol. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 1882 yuan / ton on November 1 and 2115 yuan / ton on November 19 in Shandong. The price cycle increased by 12.35%, and the price rose by 9.59% month on month and 1.78% year on year. Affected by the weather in some areas, there is no quotation for shutdown and maintenance of the device. At present, the inventory of production enterprises is not high, and the attitude of the industry is optimistic. At present, the profits of traders are fair, and the methanol analysts of the business society predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate in the short term.

Urea, in the late November, the market price of urea in Shandong Province may rise slightly. Urea analysts of the business club believe that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry is still enthusiastic about urea procurement, and the industrial demand is to be purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise slightly.

Due to the high price of liquid chlorine as raw material, the cost of dichloromethane production enterprises is high. In addition, the lower rigid demand is flat, the enterprise starts to decline, the market supply is reduced, and a small number of downstream banks are replenished on demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 3070-3170 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 3700 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 3050 yuan / ton.

Ethylene, current crude oil: OPEC members tend to postpone the plan to increase daily crude oil production in January, and the international oil price rose to the highest level since early September on Wednesday. Therefore, business agency data analysts predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly rise next.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts from the business club believe that: at present, the favorable expectations are insufficient, many places are affected by heavy pollution weather emergency response and other factors, the industrial demand continues to decline, in addition to the cold air attack, rain and snow weather affecting logistics, manufacturers’ shipment may continue to be under pressure, and the domestic LNG market is expected to run weakly.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic cocoon and silk market fluctuated slightly in November. As of November 18, the average price of raw silk market was 303500 yuan / ton, up 2.02% compared with the beginning of the month, down 25.34% year on year; the average price of dried cocoon market was 92000 yuan / ton, 1.71% higher than that at the beginning of the month, and 30.17% lower than that at the beginning of the month. At present, the price of dried cocoon and raw silk in Guangxi is 92000 yuan / ton and 302000 yuan / ton respectively.

Affected by the sharp reduction of cocoon production in Guangxi this autumn, the price of cocoon has reached a new high since the epidemic. The purchase price of the fourth batch of cocoons is generally around 42-45 yuan / kg, the wool discount is 8.2-8.5, and the cocoon cost is 340000-350000 yuan. The quality of the fifth batch of cocoons is average, and the purchase price is lower than that of the previous batch. Due to the high cost of fresh cocoons and cocoons in Guangxi and other places, some factories are reluctant to sell the products to be produced due to the gradual delivery of previous batch orders. At present, high-quality raw silk is better than low-grade raw silk. There is a gap in raw materials of silk mills. The expectation of stopping production and reducing production has been enhanced, and the willingness to support prices is obvious.

In terms of the current silkworm chrysalis market and price, the loading price of domestic fresh pupae in Guangxi factories is generally around 13000-14000 yuan / ton, and that of grade B is 12000-13000 yuan / ton, and that of grade C is 11000-12000 yuan / ton. The middle price of basic loading is about 12500-13500 yuan / ton. Dry and wet pupae a 5000 – 6000 yuan / ton, B 4500 yuan / ton. Dry silkworm pupa feed 7200-7500 yuan / ton. Thailand’s receiving price is about 2350 US dollars / ton, Vietnam’s 20000 Dong / kg, and South Korea’s dry and wet pupae are about 1400 US dollars / ton.

With the end of this year’s reeling of fresh cocoons, the volume of goods decreased. In Northeast China, Shenyang market is the main market to prepare goods. The Spring Festival inventory in Shandong market has begun. The RMB exchange rate has been stable in recent years, and there is a tendency to stabilize after the rise of sea transportation price. The foreign Southeast Asian market starts to prepare goods on New Year’s Day, which is expected to have a positive impact on exports.

Since September, double 11 and Christmas orders, the traditional textile and clothing orders are still dense in the first and middle of October. Under the support of the “silver 10″ peak season, textile enterprises arranged orders more to the end of November, and some enterprises arranged orders to December. Textile enterprises maintained a high load of about 70% and accelerated to catch up with orders. This year’s double 11 e-commerce platforms made another good performance, showing the steady release of restorative consumption, the expected improvement of domestic consumption cycle and the rise of rigid consumption demand. Although the textile industry entered the traditional off-season in November, according to the information of China Textile City, most of the fabric markets are “market orders”. The characteristics of market goods are that they come fast and go quickly, and the duration is not long. With the approach of Christmas and Spring Festival, under the stimulation of holiday orders, the market cooling rate is limited in the short term.

The export market has performed well and has achieved positive growth for five consecutive months. From the textile and clothing export situation in October, we can see that China’s export of masks, protective clothing and other types of textiles still maintained a rapid growth. According to the latest data of the General Administration of customs, in October 2020, the export of textile and clothing reached US $24.84 billion, an increase of 10.7%, of which the export of textiles was US $11.66 billion, an increase of 15.7%, and that of clothing was US $13.18 billion, an increase of 6.6%. From January to October, textile and clothing exports totaled 240.62 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.5%, of which textile exports were 129.61 billion US dollars, an increase of 31.9%, and clothing exports were 111.01 billion US dollars, a decrease of 8.6%.

According to business agency analysts, foreign trade orders in November are expected to continue to increase compared with the previous month, demand from East Asia, West Asia, the Middle East, Africa and the Americas will continue to recover, and customer orders from European countries will also continue to be issued. In addition, with the advent of winter, frequent outbreaks of influenza and repeated outbreaks, the export of masks, protective clothing and other types of textiles still maintained a rapid growth, and is expected to drive the overall textile and clothing to continue to improve on a year-on-year basis. At the same time, RCEP signing may also benefit China’s textile and clothing exports, which will also have a positive impact on Cocoon and silk exports. On the domestic side, although the textile industry has entered the traditional off-season, products such as silk quilt have ushered in the peak sales season. The double-10-1 has just ended, and there will also be consumption such as double-12, new year’s day, Spring Festival and seasonal consumption. Overall, the cocoon silk market will remain strong shocks.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of November 18, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 6833 yuan / ton, which was increased by 433 yuan / ton or 4.77% compared with the price on November 1.

Low inventory support, butanone market rose steadily

In November, the domestic butanone market as a whole entered a benign conduction. On the 2nd and 3rd, the market quotation of butanone rose slightly, with reference to 200-300 yuan / ton. As of November 18, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 6833 yuan / ton, which was increased by 433 yuan / ton or 6.77% compared with the price on November 1.

Upstream, this week’s LPG market fell. On November 17, the civil market of liquefied gas in Northeast China fell as a whole, with a light trading atmosphere. Downstream market enthusiasm is not high, multi-dimensional rigid demand replenishment, good market is limited. The civil market of liquefied gas in Shandong Province rose and fell with each other, but the range was not large, mostly about 20-50 yuan / ton. The atmosphere of market transaction was fair, and the current mainstream transaction price was about 3100-3120 yuan / ton. The general market for liquefied gas continued to decline in North China. At present, the terminal consumption is general, downstream market entry is cautious, mainly wait-and-see.

Internationally, on November 17, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.65/barrel, up $0.31. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.75/barrel, down $0.07. Oil prices remained mainly stable on Monday with little fluctuation. The market was worried that the blockade measures taken to curb the rebound of the epidemic may depress fuel demand, offsetting the positive effects of vaccine expectation and OPEC + production reduction.

New single support poor butanone finishing

At present, the overall stock of butanone market is on the low side, but there are not many new orders and the demand is general. Therefore, the butanone Data Engineer of the business agency believes that it is slightly difficult for the domestic butanone market to continue to go higher in the short term, and the main task is to stabilize the operation, and more attention should be paid to raw materials and demand changes in the specific trend.