1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2416.67 yuan / ton on February 23, and 2134.67 yuan / ton on February 17. After the festival, it rose by 13.21%, 15.01% on a month on month basis, and 25% on a year-on-year basis.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on February 23, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2673.33 yuan / ton, and on February 17, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2490 yuan / ton, with a sharp rise of 7.36% after the festival and a flat month on month, up 21.51% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

After the festival, crude oil led the energy and chemical industry plate to advance rapidly, and the price of monoammonium phosphate rose with the trend. In the first week after the festival, the price of monoammonium phosphate increased slightly by about 3%, waiting for the market reaction. Entering this week, the rising trend continued and was strong. By the 23rd, it had risen by more than 13%, and there was no intention of a correction. This rise is mainly due to the rising prices of raw materials and the multiple positive blessings of the rising demand. The focus of the market has begun to move upward. Although some enterprises still suspend quotation, the rising atmosphere is high, the market is expected to be better, and the price is expected to continue to rise. Anhui Province 55% ammonium powder factory offer 2285 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei Province is 2250-2650 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Henan Province is about 2400-2250 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan is about 2400 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Shandong Province is about 2300-2350 yuan / ton.

After the price of DAP was stable last week, it rose actively this week. At present, the price has increased by more than 7%, and the quotation has exceeded 3000 mark. At present, most enterprises still suspend quotation, but the high price is frequent, the export is still good, the supply is still tight, the enterprises have no pressure to ship, in addition, the spring ploughing is approaching, the raw materials are rising sharply, and there are multiple positive supports. The operators have a positive attitude and are optimistic about the future market. In Hubei Province, 64% of diammonium enterprises stop reporting, while in Shaanxi Province, 64% of diammonium mainstream ex factory quotation is 2950-3040 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is 3300-3430 yuan / ton. In Guizhou Province, the main price of 64% diammonium was 3300 yuan / ton, while in Heilongjiang Province, the price of 64% diammonium received in advance at the first station rose to about 3050 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, on February 23, the domestic sulfur market rose broadly, with solid sulfur rising by 80-100 yuan / ton, and liquid sulfur in East China also rising by nearly 100 yuan / ton. At present, refineries in various regions of China are operating in low inventory, the supply of sulfur in the yard is tight, and the quotation of sulfur is rising. The export market of downstream phosphate fertilizer continues to improve. In addition, the domestic spring cultivation fertilizer is approaching, which is good for the sulfur market, and the sulfur market in the future will remain stable High level operation, pay attention to the downstream follow-up situation.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of business news agency, the current market of ammonium phosphate is positive, the prices of raw materials are soaring, the cost side support is strong, and the demand side is improving with the coming of spring ploughing, the market prices of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate are rising. With spring ploughing approaching, it is expected that map will still rise in the short term under the mentality of buying up but not down. Diammonium phosphate is mainly for export, and the international price is still high, which will boost the domestic market. The main enterprise will send orders, and the shipment is not under pressure. It is expected that the price will still rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

After the lunar new year, the domestic isopropanol market price continued to rise. According to the data monitoring of bulk commodities, the average price of the first working day of the new year was 8133.33 yuan / ton on February 18, and 9533.33 yuan / ton on February 23, with a price increase of 17.21%.

2、 Market analysis

At present, there are many inquiries about isopropanol in the market. Affected by the cost, all isopropanol produced by acetone method will be shut down after this year. The overall operation rate of isopropanol is lower than that in previous years after the festival. The factories all say that the inventory is low. The market price of isopropanol was pushed up by the active speculation of cargo holders. So far, the negotiation range of acetone isopropanol in Shandong is about 9000-9200 yuan / ton, that of Ningbo is about 9600 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu is about 9500 yuan / ton.

Figure: price trend comparison of acetone and isopropanol from December to February

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analyst of Shangshe Chemical Branch said: the price of raw material acetone rose, the average price of acetone in Shandong was 8675 yuan / ton today, and propylene market price in Shandong increased, with the average price of 8527.27 yuan / ton today. Cost side support is strong, traders hold limited, isopropanol market prices push up. Isopropanol still has room to rise in the short term, so we should pay attention to the news changes of isopropanol in the future.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride in the domestic market rose sharply after the Spring Festival. As of the 22nd, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 7250 yuan / ton, with a one-day increase of 17.41%. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply, the spot supply on the floor was normal, and the market of phthalic anhydride soared.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, the market situation of phthalic anhydride is normal, the downstream demand has increased recently, the price trend of o-benzene has remained high, the plasticizer market has risen sharply, and the price of phthalic anhydride has skyrocketed. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started at a low level. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the site was about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply was slightly tight. The price of phthalic anhydride on the site rose, and the downstream plasticizer industry rose sharply. The actual transaction was obviously good, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is rising, with limited high-end transactions in the market. The mainstream of neighboring France source negotiation in East China is 7200-7500 yuan / ton, and naphthalene method source negotiation is 6800-7000 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 7000-7200 yuan / ton. The market outlook of phthalic anhydride still exists, and the downstream procurement has improved. After the festival, the downstream DOP price has risen sharply, which gives the phthalic anhydride market a strong support Certain positive support, affected phthalic anhydride market prices skyrocketed.

In recent years, the domestic price of o-benzene has been rising mainly, and the market price has remained at the level of 5500 yuan / ton. The rising domestic price of o-benzene is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import price of o-benzene in the port area has been rising, and the external quotation of o-benzene has been rising. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. In addition, the strong wait-and-see mood of o-benzene merchants in the market, the price of o-benzene has been rising, and the raw material price has been rising The price rise of o-benzene is good for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride, and the market price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise.

After the festival, the market price of the downstream DOP of phthalic anhydride rose sharply. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic DOP price was 13900 yuan / ton as of the 22nd, the price of isooctanol in the market rose sharply, the cost of DOP raw materials rose, the equipment start-up of DOP Enterprises was temporarily stable, the price of PVC fluctuated and rose, and the demand of the next tourists recovered. The plasticizer market has increased momentum, and the transaction price is subject to the real-time price. The overall DOP price is about 14000-14500 yuan / ton. The future DOP market has increased momentum, and the domestic phthalic anhydride price has skyrocketed due to the favorable support from the downstream.

In general, the recent strong trend of crude oil price, coupled with the sharp rise of downstream plasticizer industry, the market of phthalic anhydride is affected by the superposition of positive factors. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will continue to rise after the festival.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of February 22, the reference ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 14433 yuan / ton, which increased by 1267 yuan / ton or 9.62% compared with February 10 (reference price was 13166 yuan / ton), and the average price increased by 1167 yuan / ton or 8.79% compared with February 1 (reference price was 13266 yuan / ton).

After the festival, the domestic propylene glycol market ushered in a wide range, full of driving force

After the Spring Festival, the domestic industrial grade propylene glycol market ushered in the “first rise” in the year of the ox. On the first day of construction, driven by the rising price of raw material propylene oxide, the cost of propylene glycol increased continuously. The factory and operators had a positive attitude, and the market quotation was stable and firm. On the 19th and 20th, the quotation of propylene glycol factory was increased by 300-500 yuan / ton. Then, the market was running at a high level, and the downstream demand of propylene glycol just needed to purchase. Under the fear of rising, the trading atmosphere was good, and the export performance was good On the 22nd, the market price of propylene glycol continued to rise by 500-1000 yuan / ton for 4 consecutive days. After the festival, the biggest rise of propylene glycol was nearly 2000 yuan / ton. At present, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol is about 14000-14800 yuan / ton, with the average reference price of 14433 yuan / ton, compared with 13166 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival The average price has increased by 1267 yuan / ton, or 9.62%.

In terms of raw materials, after the festival, the market price of propylene oxide in Shandong continued to rise, the factory inventory pressure was small, the downstream demand was normal, and the sales were relatively smooth. On the 22nd, the ex factory price of propylene oxide in Shandong continued to rise sharply by 500-800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was around 18000-18700 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business society, the ex factory average price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 18333 yuan / ton, up 1533 yuan / ton, or 9.13% compared with the price before the Spring Festival.

The short-term trend of propylene glycol continues to improve, and it is still possible to continue to rise

At present, the purchasing atmosphere of propylene glycol downstream after the festival is good, the factory inventory pressure is small, and the spot is tight. Therefore, in terms of the current trading atmosphere, the propylene glycol analysts of the business community believe that before the end of the month, the propylene glycol market has a big shock, the downside risk is small, and the overall market is high and strong. Driven by raw materials and the general rise of the downstream, the market still has the possibility to continue to rise, and more needs to be done in the future Pay attention to the transmission of consumption and the change of mentality.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: p-value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of February 22, the average quotation price of propylene oxide enterprises was 18333.33 yuan / ton, up 9.13% compared with the price on February 17, up 2.33% compared with the price on January 22, and down 3.17% over the same period of three months.

After the festival, propylene oxide market continued to rise. In terms of raw materials, the price of propylene has risen continuously in recent years, while the price of liquid chlorine is on the decline. In terms of factories, the production and sales of factories in the region are stable and smooth, with no pressure on inventory. The downstream polyether raw materials are rising, and some terminal factories are returning to the market in succession, maintaining the demand for purchasing, and the overall transmission is smooth. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 17700-18200 yuan / ton.

Price fluctuation of propylene oxide Market before and after the Spring Festival (unit: yuan / ton)

Region. 10 day price, 18 day price, 22 day price

In East China, 16700-1690017200-1740018200-18400

Shandong Province, 16400-1660016800-1690017700-18200

Upstream propylene, as of February 20, Shandong propylene market price continued to rise. According to the price chart of the business club, the price of propylene declined all the way at the end of January, rose slightly at the end of the month, and then began to stabilize. On the 8th, the price of enterprises generally dropped by 50 yuan / ton, and then entered the Spring Festival holiday. Most of them remained stable in the first half of the year, while the price in the second half (from February 15) showed a steady upward trend. The 18th was the first day of official work, and up to today, the price rose by about 200 yuan / ton every day It has reached 7700 ~ 7950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price has risen to about 7700 yuan / ton.

The downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, as of February 22, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol reference 14433.33 yuan / ton, increased by 8.35% compared with the price before the festival (February 10); the downstream flexible foam polyether, on February 22, the market price of flexible foam polyether in Shandong area increased in a wide range, the raw material propylene oxide rose strongly, the cost support was strong, and some small terminal plants resumed work one after another At present, the mainstream price of common soft foam polyether market in Shandong is around 18800-19200 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene oxide analysts of business news agency, at present, the price of double raw materials fluctuates with each other. The production and sales of the factory are stable and smooth, and the inventory is free from pressure. The downstream polyether and propylene glycol follow the rise of raw materials. The terminal enterprises start to recover gradually, and the overall market conduction is smooth, which will boost the mentality of the industry. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may be strong in the short term, and the specific trend still needs to pay attention to the market news Quote.

1、 Price trend

Many states in the United States suffered from winter storms, and a large area of factories shut down. In addition, the global currency over issued, asset inflation, all aspects of chemical raw materials began to rise. At the beginning of the new year, isooctanol has made a good start. The ex factory price of ISO octanol in Shandong Province rose sharply. The average price of mainstream ex factory quotation increased from 11000.00 yuan / ton on February 12 to 15700.00 yuan / ton on February 22, with an increase of 4700 yuan / ton in 10 days, or 42.73%, up 128.43% year on year compared with the same period last year. On February 21, the commodity index of isooctanol was 110.29.

2、 Market analysis

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain:

From the perspective of the upstream industry chain, the propylene market rose sharply after the year, and the propylene price rose from 7059.55 yuan / ton on February 12 to 7761.00 yuan / ton on February 21, an increase of 9.94%. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose sharply, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the factory price of DOP will rise sharply after the year. DOP quotation increased by 30.85% from 10050.00 yuan / ton on February 12 to 13150.00 yuan / ton on February 21. The price of downstream DOP rose, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing ISO octanol increased, and the demand for ISO octanol was better. The future market operators mostly watched the trend of DOP.

Price adjustment of large factories: Shandong Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 16000 yuan / ton of ISO octanol on February 22, increased by 5000 yuan / ton compared with February 12; Shandong lihuayi group quoted 15100 yuan / ton of ISO octanol on February 22, increased by 4100 yuan / ton compared with February 12; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 16000 yuan / ton of ISO octanol on February 22, increased by 5000 yuan / ton compared with February 12 .

3、 Future forecast

In late February, the market trend of isooctanol in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene market was consolidated at a high level, the raw material support was strong, the downstream DOP market rose slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was enhanced, and the supply of isooctanol was insufficient. Isooctanol analysts from business news agency think: in late February, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, the market of isooctanol in Shandong may rise slightly.

After the Spring Festival, phenol market soared. According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, the phenol Market offer was 6675 yuan / ton on February 9, 7712.5 yuan / ton on February 20, and phenol rose by 15.54% after the festival. In terms of petrochemical plants, the listing offer was actively raised after the festival. Take the plant offer in East China as an example, the daily offer was 6790 yuan / ton on February 9, and 7460 yuan / ton on February 20, of which the mainstream offer was adjusted to 7500-7550 yuan / ton on February 20 Only Zhejiang Petrochemical continued to maintain 7200 listing and did not adjust temporarily, with an increase of 9.87% after the festival. Before and after the Spring Festival, the offers of major factories and mainstream regions are as follows:

Trend of phenol Market in main regions of China

Offer of major factories and mainstream areas around the Spring Festival

After the Spring Festival, on the first working day, the factory led the rise and boosted the market. The traders followed the offer and pushed up. With the support of the upstream and downstream, the phenol market was pushed up again near the weekend. The downstream enterprises actively resumed work and the market enthusiasm increased. They easily crossed the 7000 yuan mark and reached 8000 yuan. The reasons are as follows

Price trend of factories in East China around the Spring Festival

First, the cost side helped push up. Let’s start with crude oil. On February 17, the WTI oil price was at $61.14/barrel, and Brent was at $63.34/barrel, another year’s high. On February 18, the Brent oil price once exceeded $65 / barrel, and the international oil price hit a 13 month high. According to the monitoring of business news agency, since February, the WTI oil price has increased by 15.96%, and Brent oil price has increased by 16.15%. On the one hand, the effect of state-controlled oil production is ideal. On the other hand, the inventory of the United States and China has declined. Especially under the influence of cold weather in the United States, the operating rate of refineries has declined, the inventory of refined oil has decreased significantly, and the demand for heating oil has increased, which has a positive effect on oil prices. At present, OPEC + is still strictly implementing the production reduction agreement, and it is still necessary to continue to observe the implementation rate of production reduction in the later period. In addition, the cold wave in the United States has a temporary impact on refineries, and the output is expected to rebound in the later period, so there is resistance for the oil price to continue to rise in the short term.

In terms of raw material pure benzene, the crude oil rose sharply, and the pure benzene rose sharply. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, on February 9, Shandong pure benzene factory offered 5340 yuan / ton, and on February 20, Shandong pure benzene offered 6150 yuan / ton, with a 15.17% rise in pure benzene after the festival.

After the Spring Festival, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose sharply, and the price continued to rise. The price was 7060 yuan / ton on February 14, 7196 yuan / ton on February 17 and 7761 yuan / ton on February 20, with an increase of 9.94% on the 7th and 7.85% on the 4th.

Second, the downstream products reached a new high. When it comes to downstream products, bisphenol A should bear the brunt. So far, the market of bisphenol A has risen to 21000-22000 yuan / ton. Since 2020, bisphenol A has risen by 57% continuously, with a year-on-year increase of 93.5%. The price before the festival is unreachable, but surprisingly, it has reached a new high after the festival. As shown in the figure below, the market price trend of bisphenol A can be seen. Since the year of the ox, the rising trend of bisphenol a festival has reached a new high in the following years. At present, it is difficult to ease the shortage of goods in the market. The downstream epoxy resin market is rising at the same time, and the factory purchases on demand. The operators have a positive attitude and continue to be bullish. In the short term, from the perspective of supply and demand side, it will maintain the rising trend and the high level of goods will continue to dominate.

The chemical industry continued to rise after the festival, and the industrial chain became red. From the point of view of the business community, the phenol market has a good start in the new year. After the surge, there are many conflicts in the downstream. At present, the market offer is close to 8000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the port will continue to supplement next week. Although the supply side will continue to supplement, the business community expects that the phenol market will continue to push up in a narrow range or stabilize at a high level under the overall higher situation.

Before and after the long holiday, the epoxy market performance was flat, the price was stable, and the mainstream price in East China was 6800 yuan / ton.

As of today, the CFR Northeast Asia price has been slightly adjusted by US $5, and after the increase, the price is US $855 / ton, with strong cost support. After the festival, polycarboxylate monomer manufacturers were very popular, and some of them did not take the goods many years ago. We learned from the market that Sanjiang has closed its offer and delivered the orders of the year before, and Shanghai Dongda has basically not accepted the orders at present. Market participants pointed out that the current market is bullish, so they are waiting for the general rise to come true. The market of ethylene glycol in the lower reaches is strong, and the profit margin is rich. Most of the cogeneration units are converted to ethylene glycol. In addition, there are more maintenance of ethylene oxide units from the end of February to March, and the supply of ethylene oxide is tight.

Market news pointed out that tomorrow may be raised by 200-300 yuan, the market gradually entered the bull market, need to pay close attention to the latest developments.

1、 Trend analysis

On February 18, spot copper soared sharply, with a price of 62793.33 yuan / ton, up 4.13% from the previous trading day, 8.35% from the beginning of the year, and 36.59% from the same period last year, reaching a ten-year high. LME3 copper rose sharply today, closing at US $8590.5, up 2.39%. The main trend of Shanghai copper showed an upward trend, with the highest closing at 63290 yuan and the final closing at 63210 yuan, up 3.96%. The main international copper contract rose sharply, closing at 56410 yuan, or 4.21%.

Outside market up

During the Spring Festival holiday, the external market continued to soar, and the dollar index hit a three week low, which brought support to the metal market. Among them, the international copper price hit a new high in more than eight years. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures hit a multi-year high for the third consecutive trading day, and copper prices have risen 93% since March last year.

Supply is tight

In 2021, the supply of copper concentrate is already tight. The long-term single tc60.8 US dollars / ton, and the spot tc50 US dollars / ton. Compared with the continuous expansion of copper smelting capacity, the supply of copper concentrate is limited. At the same time, in the middle and late January, there were interference events such as Peru blockade again, Chile port storm and Las bambas copper mine blocked by the public, which made the actual supply of copper concentrate may still be lower than the original market expectation. From the perspective of seasonality, the production of refined copper is off-season from January to February. In the first quarter, domestic smelting maintenance is more concentrated, and the shortage of raw material supply may further restrict the actual output, so the refined copper output is difficult to rise significantly.

Strong demand

Under the proposal of celebrating the Chinese new year on the spot, copper demand may recover quickly after the festival, and the actual consumption is obviously better than in previous years. In terms of inventory, the average accumulated stock in January of the past four years was 14600 tons, while the stock in January 2021 was reduced by 12800 tons. According to the survey, the orders in the first quarter were relatively full, which reflected that the spot demand was really strong.

To sum up, in the case of relatively healthy supply and demand side, copper inventory may hover at a low level for a long time. After the Spring Festival, copper demand is about to enter the peak consumption season. At the same time, under the background of low overall dominant inventory, copper price has sufficient momentum to rise.

The prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream fluctuated at a high level, and the market price of aluminum fluoride kept stable, but on the whole, the ex factory price of aluminum fluoride enterprises kept stable. According to the data of business news agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 9166 yuan / ton on February 5, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

The price of raw material fluorite is 2741.11 yuan / ton. Recently, some fluorite plants in China are generally started, and some mines and flotation plants in the plant are shut down. The fluorite supply in the plant is tight. However, the downstream market has risen recently, and the fluorite price has been affected and gone up. As of April 4, the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and volatile in the future.

As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the price of aluminum fluoride market changes little, and the overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient; the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

Aluminum fluoride industry analysts of business news agency believe that: the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid prices fluctuate at a high level, and the cost side has a limited role in boosting the aluminum fluoride Market. It is expected that the aluminum fluoride market price will rise.