1、 Price data
| Melamine |
As of May 23, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refining naphtha was 6662.50 yuan / ton, down 1.08% compared with 6735.00 yuan / ton on May 17. The actual transaction price of refining naphtha was about 6700 yuan / ton.
As of May 23, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic Di refined straight run naphtha was 6445.00 yuan / ton, down 1.45% compared with 6540.00 yuan / ton on May 17. The actual transaction price of Di refined straight run naphtha was about 6450 yuan / ton.
On May 23, the naphtha commodity index was 82.23, unchanged from yesterday, down 19.87% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 94.67% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
The price of local refining naphtha continued to fall this week. Affected by the policy, the price rose on Monday. The international crude oil fell sharply this week, and the naphtha market fell back.
Upstream: the sharp drop in international oil prices is mainly due to the market’s concern that the surge of new cases in Asia will further depress the demand for crude oil, as well as the new progress of the US Iran nuclear agreement to release the expectation of increased supply; In addition, the probability of US inflation causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increases.
Downstream: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of toluene rose first and then fell. On May 16, the price of toluene was 5986.2 yuan / ton, and on May 23, it was 5926 yuan / ton, down 0.5%. This week, the price of mixed xylene rose first and then fell. On May 16, the price of mixed xylene was 5990 yuan / ton, and on May 23, the price was 5960 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton or 0.5% from last week. In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 6400 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic PTA market price has fallen sharply, and the downstream market is not good, which has a negative impact on the PX market.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 20th week of 2021 (5.17-5.21), there are 5 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that have increased month on month, including 1 kind of commodity that has increased by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were coke (5.59%), petroleum coke (3.06%) and coking coal (2.92%). A total of 11 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 3 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three declining products were liquefied natural gas (- 7.60%), WTI crude oil (- 5.25%), Brent crude oil (- 5.24%). This week’s average rise or fall was – 1.04%.
3、 Future forecast
Energy analysts of business news agency believe that the sharp decline of international crude oil has aggravated the wait-and-see mood of naphtha market, but it just needs support, and it is expected that the naphtha market will rise in the near future.
| EDTA |