Melamine lacks cost support, and the current minor rally is unlikely to sustain

1、 Recent market price changes

Spot benchmark price: As of February 4, 2026, the domestic spot price for melamine is 5712.5 yuan/ton. Daily increase: 37.5 yuan/ton higher than the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.66%.
Recent cumulative increase: Since January 28th, the price has started at 5637.5 yuan/ton, stabilized after two price increases on January 29th and 30th, and rose again on February 3rd. In the past week, the cumulative increase has been 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.33%.
From an upstream and downstream perspective, this round of ‘stabilizing small and medium growth’ is the result of short-term demand encountering long-term surplus, with a weak foundation.
Upstream (cost): weak support. The price of the main raw material urea is weak, and there is no upward trend in production costs. On February 4th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1777.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% compared to the beginning of this month (1782.50 yuan/ton).
Midstream (production): high pressure. The serious overcapacity in the industry is the fundamental problem, and any price increase may be suppressed by sufficient supply.
Downstream (demand): Short term driving force. Mainly supported by seasonal stocking in the sheet metal industry after the Spring Festival, but this demand is temporary.
Simply put, downstream stocking provides a “window” for price increases, but the two mountains of upstream costs and midstream production capacity determine limited and unsustainable room for price increases. The key to the market situation depends on whether the demand drops after the subsequent stocking is completed, and whether the production capacity is substantially cleared.
3、 Comprehensive market analysis
In summary, the price of melamine has achieved a slight increase amidst fluctuations, reflecting certain market support. Manufacturers in different regions make flexible adjustments based on their own inventory, orders, and regional supply and demand, with prices fluctuating, indicating that the market is not a one-sided trend. This small increase is a short-term fluctuation. From the perspective of industry background, the melamine market has long faced the fundamental situation of continuous capacity expansion and overall oversupply, which limits the space for significant price increases.
Overall, the current market has experienced short-term regional and small price rebounds in the context of long-term loose supply.