1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has stabilized after rising in recent seven days. Last Monday was a weekly low of 8471 yuan / ton, 8614 yuan / ton last Sunday, with a 7-day increase of 1.69%, Saturday (April 24) as the weekly high, 8619 yuan / ton, with a 7-day amplitude of 1.74%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, the propylene price fell sharply in the second half of March and recovered at the end of the month. The market price rose slowly in early April, with the quotation increasing by about 50 yuan / ton on average every day, while the price rose steadily at the beginning of June. The price started on the 16th day steadily increased at the rate of 50 yuan / ton, and began to stabilize on the 23rd. The current market transaction is between 8600-8700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8600 yuan / ton. On April 20, the foreign market of American propylene was down again significantly, which may have some influence on the domestic market. Recently, the price of propylene in Asia has been rising slightly, which has a small impact on the propylene market. There is no pressure on the stock of propylene market, and some units are still under maintenance. The supply of goods in Shandong Province is slightly tense.

Recently, international crude oil market events have been constantly, and the price fluctuates. Crude oil prices have been down significantly on April 20 and 21. The price fluctuation on April 22 and 23 is relatively small, with a slight upward trend, which has limited impact on the propylene market.

PP prices have risen slightly after the obvious decline in recent seven days, with a 7-day drop of 1.90%, and a 7-day amplitude of 2.09%. The futures market is cold and has limited impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid prices have stabilized after a slight increase in the past seven days, with a 7-day increase of 1.00%, which has little effect on the air of propylene.

In recent seven days, the propylene oxide market rose step by step, with a 7-day increase of 1.83%, which has a pull-up effect on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin market fell sharply in recent seven days, with a 7-day drop of 6.28%, which has a certain negative effect on propylene.

In recent seven days, the price of n-butanol in China was small up and down, without rise or fall, with the amplitude of 1.06% in the seven days, which had no impact on the propylene market.

In the past seven days, the price of isooctanol has been stable after steady rise, with a 7-day increase of 5.04%, which has a positive effect on propylene small.

The price of isopropanol has stabilized after the fluctuation of the price in the last seven days, with the 7-day increase of 0.92%, and the seven-day amplitude of 1.11%, which has little influence on propylene.

In the past seven days, the phenol Market Price in East China has been stable after rising steadily, with a 7-day increase of 2.76, which has a slightly positive effect on propylene.

In the last seven days, the quotation of the manufacturers in East China acetone market remained stable, which had no impact on propylene.

The price of acrylonitrile market has been falling in recent seven days, with a 7-day decline of 3.89%, and a 7-day amplitude of 4.30%, which has a positive effect on propylene.

3、 Post market forecast

According to propylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society, the domestic stock is not much, some units are overhauled, the supply of goods in Shandong is slightly tight, the crude oil market is slightly up, the downstream commencement rate is still acceptable, and polypropylene futures are generally. It is expected that the market will continue to stabilize the price later, and it is not allowed to exclude the possibility of small downward with downstream.

The system of business society commodity index shows that the natural rubber commodity index on April 26 was 39.37, down 0.48 points from yesterday, down 60.63% from the peak point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and 44.32% higher than the lowest point of 27.28 on April 02, 2020（ Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: trend chart of mainstream price of natural rubber since April 2021

According to the data monitoring of business agency (100ppi.com), on April 1, 2021, the price of domestic total latex of natural rubber was 13300 yuan / ton, and that of rubber on April 26 was 13275 yuan / ton, with a downward range of only 0.19%; However, in fact, the natural rubber has gone out of the trend similar to “V”, with the lowest monthly value of 12757 yuan / ton on the 13th, and the maximum amplitude of the month is about 4% so far.

From the perspective of new rubber output, the main production area of natural rubber in China is gradually increased this month, but so far, the real rubber opening area can account for about half of the total area. According to local traders, most of the new latex was absorbed by local latex factories after the production; At present, the market is not much new emulsion, high price, some traders have no goods. In April, the epidemic in Southeast Asia rebounded, the situation was severe, Thailand had started curfew, and India was seriously out of control. Although the demand for rubber market is increasing, as India, which accounts for nearly 8% of rubber production, the industrial environment is damaged, not only the rubber output is affected, but the local demand for rubber products in China is also seriously affected. The most important is that the uncontrolled epidemic has led to global concerns about the future economic situation, and the rubber market has rebounded since mid April, It is not effective and sustainable. Latest global rubber monthly output data: the latest report released by ANRPC shows that the global rubber production increased by 1.3% to 91 million tons in march2021. Among them, Thailand decreased 10%, Indonesia increased by 2.8%, Vietnam by 12.5%, and Malaysia by 44.9%. In March, the global consumption of gum increased by 7.4% to 1234000 tons. Among them, China increased 3.3%, India increased by 40.8%, Thailand fell 8.4%, Malaysia increased by 3.4%.

From the downstream demand, from the tire manufacturer’s situation, the recent downstream factory commencement rate is slightly lower than that of last month: according to the data statistics, the starting rate of semi steel tire manufacturers in the week from April 16 to 22, 2021 is 72.67%, 0.10% lower than that of the previous year, and 14.59% year on year; The start rate of all steel tire manufacturers was 76.13%, down 1.21% on month, and 11.37% year on year. According to the automobile data, according to the passenger union news on April 22, the market expects the retail sales of passenger cars in narrow sense to be about 1.63 million, an increase of about 13.9% year-on-year. In the second quarter, the impact of chip shortage of manufacturers is prominent. The batch rhythm caused by insufficient capacity will move back to the terminal, bringing the emotion of discount recovery and buying wait-and-see. It is expected that the chip pressure will be relieved in the second half of the year. In addition, due to the complex and tense international relations, the repeated foreign epidemic, especially the influence of India’s runaway on the global economic recovery, downstream enterprises are full of worries and lack of confidence in the future of the market, and the trend from the rapid change of the market from 26 to the next can be seen.

From the aspect of inventory, the total inventory of the previous period was 177542 tons (-60) as of April 23, and the futures warehouse receipts were 174080 tons (-60). As of April 11, the inventory of Qingdao Bonded Zone continued to decline slightly, but the decline was narrowed due to the decrease of goods taken downstream.

From the aspect of import and export, China: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 13, China imported 711000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in March 2021, an increase of 18.1% year-on-year. From January to March 2021, China imported 1791 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 8% from 1659000 tons in the same period in 2020. Thailand: in the first quarter of 2021, Thailand exported 870000 tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), an increase of 11% year-on-year. Among them, the total export of standard rubber is 383000 tons, an increase of 17% year-on-year; The export of cigarette glue was 125000 tons, down 6% year on year; The export of latex is 351000 tons, an increase of 12% year on year. In the first quarter, the total export to China’s natural rubber was 299000 tons, down 1% year on year. Among them, the total export of standard rubber to China is 151000 tons, down 2% year on year; The total export of cigarette glue to China was 22000 tons, down 8% year on year; The total export of latex to China was 126000 tons, an increase of 2% year on year. In the first quarter, Thailand exported 328000 tons of mixed rubber, a year-on-year drop of 27%; The total export of mixed rubber to China was 327000 tons, down 27% year on year. Vietnam: Vietnam customs statistics show that the first quarter of Vietnam’s rubber import and export deficit has been the first in nearly ten years, according to the report of Vietnam’s cafef website on April 20. Affected by COVID-19, global rubber demand is strong. In the first quarter, Vietnam exported 674 million US dollars of rubber exports and 406 thousand and 500 tons of cargo, and the price and volume increased 103% and 78.5% compared with the same period last year. China has become the largest market for rubber exports in Vietnam, accounting for 69% of Vietnam’s rubber exports. In the first quarter, Vietnam rubber import amount was US $691million, with a cargo weight of 504900 tons, with the price and volume increasing by 136.9% and 176.9% compared with the same period last year. Cambodia became the largest source of imported rubber in Vietnam, accounting for 62% of the import volume of Vietnamese rubber.

From the policy perspective, according to the report of Thai media on April 5, Bayun, deputy deputy chief of the Ministry of agriculture and cooperatives of Thailand, presided over the meeting of the Mortgage Management Committee for supporting rubber production enterprises, deliberated on the standards and conditions of the credit support plan for rubber production enterprises, and the credit line of the whole project was 25billion baht. It is stipulated that the credit limit of each rubber enterprise shall not exceed 40% of 25billion baht. The new standards and conditions allow each rubber enterprise to apply for the loan line, so that all rubber enterprises can join the credit support plan and benefit the farmers. Another source said the rubber authority of Thailand had sold 104763.35 tons of national reserve reserves in a domestic auction, according to a news release on Tuesday. The “old stock” sold included cigarette flakes, 20 standard and other types of rubber, said Nakorn tangavirapat, the Bureau’s director. The rubber sold is no longer suitable for normal use for nine years of old stock, due to long-term storage, resulting in deterioration. The sell-off is designed to save maintenance costs and will not put pressure on the market rubber prices.

As for the back market, the business agency analysis believes that the rubber raw materials needed for the epidemic situation will still be tight, but due to the worries about the international economic situation in the future, the market has insufficient confidence in the downstream demand of tires and other downstream, and the natural rubber post support function is weak because the automobile enterprises are also facing the influence of the lack of “core” factors. The repeated epidemic in Southeast Asia may have a great impact on the local new rubber output. Under the condition that the new rubber output is affected, combined with the current situation that the new rubber quantity in the domestic production area is not large, the supply end may have a shortage of new rubber, and the dependence on the domestic existing inventory will increase, but in the case of weak demand support, the market will inevitably be affected by the reverse.

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the zinc price fluctuated and adjusted in April, and the zinc market was basically stable. This week, the zinc price fluctuated and fell, and the zinc market weakened. As of April 25, the average price of zinc was 21606.67 yuan / ton, down 1.95% from 22036.67 yuan / ton on April 18 last weekend; Compared with the price of zinc on April 1, 21733.33 yuan / ton, the price of zinc fluctuated slightly, down 0.58%.

India’s epidemic can’t stop

Since April, the number of new confirmed cases in India has increased to a new high. According to the latest data of the World Health Organization, the number of new confirmed cases in India on the 23rd and 24th was the largest in the world. India’s official data show that on April 5, India’s daily number of confirmed cases exceeded 100000 for the first time, on April 15, more than 200000 and on April 22, more than 300000. India COVID-19 continues to deteriorate, triggering global concerns, the economic recovery is overshadowed, and zinc demand recovery is blocked.

In terms of commercial trade, from the overall situation of India’s products exported to the world, India’s main export commodities are chemical products, mineral products and precious metals and products. India’s exports to China are mainly fish, spices and iron ore, while its imports from China are mainly electronic products and equipment. The epidemic situation in India reduced the domestic zinc market’s export to India, but the impact was limited. The demand of zinc market fell but the decline was limited. The zinc market was bad but the negative pressure was small.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, said: affected by the Indian epidemic, the global economic recovery is slowing down, and the demand of zinc market is dragged down. However, from the main types of trade commodities between China and India, it can be seen that the Indian epidemic has little impact on China’s zinc market. Zinc market is expected to be weak and stable in the future, and zinc market is expected to rise indefinitely.

1、 Price quotation

According to the data of business news agency, cotton spot market rose this week, and the price of 3128b lint on the 23rd was about 15719 yuan / ton. It was down 0.43% on a month on month basis and up 38.15% on a year-on-year basis.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic: this week, cotton spot showed an upward trend of shock. On the 23rd, China’s cotton price index 3128b was 15703 yuan / ton, up 152 yuan / ton from last Friday. According to statistics, the national cotton planting intention area in March was 43.6755 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 4.99%, a decrease of 2.0232 million mu compared with the previous survey, and a decrease of 4.4 percentage points compared with the previous survey. At the end of March, the total turnover inventory of cotton in China was about 3.676 million tons, a month on month decrease of 383.3 million tons, a slight increase compared with last month, lower than 287.2 million tons in the same period of last year. As of April 16, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 3.644 million tons, a decrease of 63000 tons (1.69%) compared with last week.

On April 23, the weather forecast in Xinjiang showed that there was light rain or sleet or snow in most areas of cotton producing areas in Xinjiang. The precipitation cooling and continuous low temperature weather may have an impact on the growth of cotton crop sowing and emergence. The later period depends on the specific weather conditions, and the short-term cooling has little impact on the growth of cotton.

International: the U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) released an export sales report on Thursday, which showed that the net sales of U.S. upland cotton exports in 2020 / 2021 increased by 103100 bales in the week ending April 15, down 16% from the previous week and 44% from the average of the previous four weeks. This week, although the weather drought in Texas supported ICE Futures rebounded to a new high, the weekly US cotton export report released was disappointing, and ice futures turned downward as of the 22nd.

According to the return of overseas orders last year, the demand for low count yarn varieties of pure cotton and polyester cotton is expected to increase. According to market news, recently due to the impact of the epidemic in India can not guarantee normal delivery, making some foreign orders back home, this news stimulate cotton prices. As a big textile country, the epidemic situation in India is difficult to control. In the long run, cotton in the second half of the year is basically good, providing support for the cotton price.

Futures: this week, Zheng cotton yarn rose at the same time. On April 23, the settlement price of zhengmian main contract 2109 was 15745 yuan / ton, up 385 yuan / ton from last Friday. On April 23, the settlement price of the main cotton yarn 2109 contract was 23210 yuan / ton, up 430 yuan / ton from last Friday.

3、 Downstream industry chain

With the rise of cotton price, some traders and textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets tentatively increased the cotton yarn quotation by 100-200 yuan / ton, but the transaction price was mainly based on the original quotation. Due to the advance of orders, most of the traditional peak season orders were overdrawn before March. Because of the repeated epidemic in Europe, another part of orders had not yet been issued. In April, new orders were not issued enough and the demand was flat. The inventory of yarn and grey cloth increased slightly but did not reach a high level. The enthusiasm of downstream raw material replenishment is still not high, the stock of imported cotton in the port is also at a high level, and the demand is about to turn into the off-season, and the increase of domestic orders is limited.

At present, the spot supply of cotton is sufficient, and the news of additional issuance of import cotton quota has not been settled. In the short term, the raw material inventory of downstream textile enterprises is sufficient, and the demand for replenishment is weak. It is expected that the market will stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: p-value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the market price of epichlorohydrin has been stable, but it has dropped. The market is mainly stable, and the quotations of some enterprises have declined slightly. According to the data of business news agency’s block list, as of April 22, the average quoted price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 16166.67 yuan / ton, down 1.82% compared with the price at the beginning of the week, up 27.63% compared with the price on April 1, and up 34.72% compared with the price on March 22.

Recently, the price of propylene continues to rise, the price of glycerol is relatively strong, and the supply side is relatively tight, which supports the high-level operation of epichlorohydrin market. However, with the increasing resistance of downstream to high price raw materials, the purchasing enthusiasm is weakened, the epoxy resin start-up in some regions is low, the market follow-up persistence is insufficient, the delivery pressure of the carrier is under pressure, and the market negotiation center is stable and weak, At present, the mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin market in Shandong is around 16000-16300 yuan / ton.

As of April 21, the market price of propylene in Shandong still rose slightly. According to the price chart of the business association, the price of propylene decreased sharply in the second half of March and rose at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market price rose slowly, with an average daily increase of about 50 yuan / ton. From the 6th, the price rose steadily, and from the 16th, the price rose steadily at the rate of 50 yuan / ton again. Now, the market transaction is between 8550 yuan / ton and 8650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8550 yuan / ton. On April 20, the external market of propylene in the United States dropped significantly again, which may have a certain impact on the domestic market. Propylene prices in Asia have been rising slightly in recent days, which has little impact on the propylene market. Propylene market is now no pressure inventory, part of the device is still in repair. The supply of goods in Shandong is a little tight.

On April 22, East China liquid epoxy resin market was put into operation. The mainstream negotiation price reference was around 39500-40500 yuan / ton. There was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream.

3、 Future forecast

Business community epichlorohydrin analysts believe that, on the whole, there is some support from the cost side and the supply side, but the support from the demand side is weak, and the market atmosphere is stalemate. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market will be mainly stable, with a narrow range of shocks. More attention should be paid to market information guidance.

According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, since April, hydrogen peroxide has continued to rise after bottoming out. At the beginning of the month, the market fell by more than 3%, and began to rise in the middle of the month, with an increase of more than 11%. As of April 21, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1110 yuan / ton, up 7.07% from the beginning of April.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January 2021 to April 8, 2021, it can be seen that the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline in the first quarter of 2021, with a maximum weekly decline of more than 11%. In the first ten days of March, hydrogen peroxide began to rebound, with the highest weekly increase of nearly 5.8%. After the sharp rise, it began to plunge into the market. By the middle of April, hydrogen peroxide hit the bottom and rebounded again, and continued to rise for more than half a month, up as high as 11%.

On April 21, some domestic hydrogen peroxide manufacturers quoted as follows:

Luxi Chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1080 yuan / ton, 150 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of April; Hebei Zhengyuan fertilizer hydrogen peroxide quoted 1080 yuan / ton, 180 yuan / ton higher; Anhui Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide plant shut down, no quotation, Anhui Jinhe hydrogen peroxide quoted 1400 yuan / ton.

Hydrogen peroxide market rises due to tight supply

Since the middle of April, the purchasing demand of terminal paper industry has increased. In addition, the hydrogen peroxide plant of Anhui Quansheng has been shut down for maintenance. Due to the low inventory and tight supply of hydrogen peroxide plant, the factory price has been continuously increased. As of April 21, the price of hydrogen peroxide has been quietly rising for more than a week, up as high as 11%. Although the terminal caprolactam market is weak and stable, the paper industry market also slows down, and the hydrogen peroxide Market is suppressed to a certain extent. Due to the low inventory and the price support of manufacturers, the hydrogen peroxide Market is still strong.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business news agency, thinks: the May Day holiday is coming, the terminal stock market is over, Quansheng is expected to start at the end of the month, the supply will increase, and the hydrogen peroxide market may weaken in the future.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic spandex market has been running at a high level recently, and the overall quotation of the factory has not changed much. The supply of some goods is still tight. At present, the average price of 40d specification is 67600 yuan / ton, up 107.36% year on year. About 90% of the spandex industry started, and the downstream end market continued to meet the demand. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang Province: 83000-85000 73000-75000 63000-65000

Shandong: 83000-86000 74000-76000 63000-66000

Fujian: 83000-86000-74000-76000-64000-68000

Jiangsu Province: 83000-85000 73000-75000 63000-66000

The raw material market of PTMEG is stable, with 760% of the start-up of the industry. There are some equipment overhauls, and the inventory pressure of the factory is not big. The 1800 molecular weight supply is around 43000 yuan / ton offered by the mainstream factory, and the actual order negotiation can refer to 42000-43000 yuan / ton. The pure MDI industry started 80% and remained unchanged. The market situation was sorted out and operated, and the transaction situation was poor. The local market negotiated to pay 21500-22000 yuan / ton by telegraphic transfer in barrels.

Changes of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Enterprise name: production capacity (10000 tons / year)

Jiaxing Xiaoxing is scheduled to be overhauled in April

Hangzhou Sanlong power plant has been restarted

Yizheng Dalian: long term parking

The operating load of Panjin Changchun is not high at 6

Spandex plant start-up to maintain a high level, part of the coarse denier supply stability, and even some inventory. The raw material market is weak, the supporting role of the cost side is general, downstream customers buy on demand, and the overall market outlook atmosphere remains unchanged. Business community analysts expect that the spandex market will still maintain stable operation in the short term.

Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the domestic cobalt market fluctuated and adjusted in April, and the overall cobalt price continued to fall. As of April 19, the price of cobalt was 345000.00 yuan / ton, down 2.17% from 352666.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (April 1).

New energy vehicle market

According to the data released by China Automobile Association, in March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 216000 and 226000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5 times and 2.4 times respectively. From January to March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 533000 and 515000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2 times and 2.8 times respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased greatly, which is good for the future market of cobalt market.

In terms of power battery output: in March 2021, the output of ternary battery was 5.8gwh, accounting for 51.6% of the total output, with a year-on-year growth of 79.6% and a month on month growth of 13.7%; the output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 5.4gwh, accounting for 48.3% of the total output, with a year-on-year growth of 341.3% and a month on month growth of 26.1%. From January to March, the cumulative output of ternary battery was 17.8gwh, accounting for 54.3% of the total output, with a year-on-year cumulative growth of 211.6%; the cumulative output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 15.0gwh, accounting for 45.6% of the total output, with a year-on-year cumulative growth of 487.1%. In terms of sales volume, in March 2021, the sales volume of ternary battery was 4.3gwh, up 141.4% year on year, accounting for 47.9% of the total sales volume; the sales volume of lithium iron phosphate battery was 4.6gwh, up 270.3% year on year, accounting for 52.0% of the total sales volume. From January to March, the cumulative sales of ternary battery was 12.7gwh, with a year-on-year cumulative growth of 170.1%; the cumulative sales of LiFePO4 battery was 11.1gwh, with a year-on-year cumulative growth of 246.4%. Power battery production and sales rose sharply, which was good for the cobalt market, but the growth rate of LiFePO4 battery production and sales was significantly higher than the overall growth level of the industry, and the growth rate of ternary battery fell, which was bad for the future cobalt market.

MB cobalt price

Time ﹣ category ﹣ specification ﹣ lowest price ﹣ rise and fall ﹣ highest price ﹣ rise and fall ﹣ unit

April 1, 2021 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.5 ﹣ 23 ﹣ USD / lb

April 1, 2021 – alloy grade cobalt 22.5 0 23.3 0.3 USD / lb

April 6, 2021 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.5 ﹣ 23 ﹣ USD / lb

April 6, 2021 – alloy grade cobalt 22.5 0 23.3 0 USD / lb

April 7, 2021 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.5 ﹣ 23 ﹣ USD / lb

April 7, 2021 ﹣ alloy grade cobalt ﹣ 22.5 ﹣ 0 ﹣ 23.3 ﹣ 0 ﹣ USD / lb

April 8, 2021 – standard cobalt 22.25 – 0.25 – 23.0 USD / lb

April 8, 2021 – alloy grade cobalt 22.25 – 0.25 – 23 – 0.3 USD / lb

April 9, 2021 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22 – 0.25 ﹣ 22.6 – 0.4 ﹣ USD / lb

April 9, 2021 – alloy grade cobalt 22 – 0.25 – 22.6 – 0.4 USD / lb

April 12, 2021 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 21.7 – 0.3 ﹣ 22.5 – 0.1 ﹣ USD / lb

April 12, 2021 – alloy grade cobalt 21.7 – 0.3 – 22.5 – 0.1 USD / lb

April 13, 2021 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 21.7 ﹣ 0 ﹣ 22.5 ﹣ 0 ﹣ USD / lb

April 13, 2021 ﹣ alloy grade cobalt ﹣ 21.7 ﹣ 0 ﹣ 22.5 ﹣ 0 ﹣ USD / lb

April 14, 2021 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 21.5 – 0.2 ﹣ 22.5 ﹣ 0 ﹣ USD / lb

April 14, 2021 ﹣ alloy grade cobalt ﹣ 21.5 – 0.2 ﹣ 22.5 ﹣ 0 ﹣ USD / lb

April 15, 2021 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 21.5 ﹣ 0 ﹣ 22.5 ﹣ 0 ﹣ USD / lb

April 15, 2021 ﹣ alloy grade cobalt ﹣ 21.5 ﹣ 0 ﹣ 22.5 ﹣ 0 ﹣ USD / lb

April 16, 2021 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 21.4 – 0.1 ﹣ 22.4 – 0.1 ﹣ USD / lb

April 16, 2021 – alloy grade cobalt 21.4 – 0.1 – 22 – 0.5 USD / lb

According to the statistical data of MB cobalt price, MB cobalt price fluctuated and fell in April, and the international cobalt market continued to fall, which was bad for domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt market was under great downward pressure.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business news agency, believes that the new energy vehicle market continues to rise, which has a certain positive support for the demand of cobalt market. However, the growth rate of ternary battery has declined, and the demand of cobalt Market in the future may not be as expected. The price of cobalt salt has continued to fall recently, increasing the pressure on the decline of cobalt price; the international cobalt price has continued to fall, and the international cobalt market is weakening. Generally speaking, the cobalt market still has upward support, but the demand of the cobalt market may be less than expected, and the supply and demand of the cobalt market may still maintain oversupply. There is room for the cobalt price to rise in the future, but the rising power is insufficient. It is expected that the cobalt price will fluctuate and stabilize, and the cobalt price may fluctuate and adjust between 320000-350000 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

The price of aniline continued to decline this week, according to the data of the business club’s block list. On April 11, the price of aniline in Shandong was 11000-12900 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11700 yuan / ton. On April 18, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10200-10500 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 10500 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, this week, pure benzene followed the trend of styrene, falling first and then rising. At the beginning of the week, the decline of styrene led to the weakening of pure benzene in East China. In the second half of the week, styrene futures rebounded. The spot supply of styrene in some areas was tight, and the price rose, while pure benzene rose. This week, the port is still in the channel of destocking. Although the speed of picking up goods is slowing down, the number of new arrivals is less. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 6850 yuan / ton, which strengthened the bottom support and boosted the market mentality. On Sunday (April 18), the price of pure benzene was 6750-6950 yuan / ton (the average price was 6820 yuan / ton), which was 156 yuan / ton or 2.34% higher than that of last week, and 103.58% higher than that of the same period last year.

The price of nitric acid this week was flat compared with last week. On Friday (April 16), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2233.33 yuan / ton, up 8.94% compared with the beginning of the month and 47.25% compared with the same period last year.

The price difference between aniline and cost side is wide, which is less affected by the fluctuation of cost side. Market supply and downstream demand are the main factors affecting the price of aniline. Aniline prices continued to fall this week. Aniline plant operating rate is high, the market supply is sufficient, the enterprise price reduction row inventory. Aniline prices fell, driving the downstream follow-up turned positive, the second half of the week to maintain horizontal consolidation.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, Sinopec’s high price supported the pure benzene market. Next week, the downstream styrene plant will be restarted, which will support the demand for pure benzene. Overall, short-term pure benzene prices continue to follow crude oil, styrene price fluctuations, prices firm. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

Another 100000 t / a aniline plant in Jinling Dongying was restarted, and the market supply of aniline in Shandong is expected to continue to increase; the 30000 T / a aniline plant in Yangnong, Jiangsu was shut down for maintenance at the weekend, and the supply in East China is expected to decrease. Overall, the market is cautious and wait-and-see, aniline may still maintain a weak and stable trend next week. Pay attention to whether there is a purchasing plan in the downstream of the coming May Day holiday. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the follow-up of downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline price.

This week (4.12-4.16) the market of NBR was slightly weak. According to the monitoring of business community, as of April 16, the price of NBR was 22633 yuan / ton, slightly down 0.29% compared with the price of 22700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The ex factory price of NBR in China is mainly stable. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of April 16, the ex factory price of NBR of Lanzhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was stable: at present, the price of n41e was 19600 yuan / ton; that of 3305e was 21200 yuan / ton; that of 3308e was 21600 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream quotation of NBR n41e market is around 18800-19300 yuan / ton, and the quotation of South Korea lg6250 market is around 20500-21000 yuan / ton.

After the sharp drop in raw material prices, there was a slight rise this week, and the cost side may stop falling this week. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of April 16, the butadiene price was 6696 yuan / ton, up 2.90% from 6507 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and down 14.80% from March 31.

Future forecast: NBR analysts believe that since the end of March, raw material prices have rebounded sharply, downstream inquiries are light, and NBR offers may fall slightly in the short term.