I. price trend
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc market remained depressed in November, and the zinc price fell in shock. As of November 19, the price of zinc was 18646.67 yuan / ton, down 2.76% from 19176.67 yuan / ton on November 1, down 15.70% from the same period last year. The overall performance of zinc market in November was low.
II. Market trend analysis
Price trend of zinc in LME Market
As can be seen from the figure, zinc prices in LME futures market fell in November. As of November 18, LME zinc ingot quotation was US $2383 / ton, compared with us $2540 / ton in early November, and zinc price fluctuated and fell. The zinc price in LME market fluctuated and fell, which was negative for domestic zinc market. The domestic zinc price lost the support of rising power, and the zinc market in the future was negative.
| EDTA |
Zinc price trend in Shanghai Futures Market
As can be seen from the figure, the futures price of zinc in Shanghai futures market fell in November, and the overall zinc market fell in November. As of November 19, the price of zinc ingot in Shanghai futures market was 18375 yuan / ton, down from 18890 yuan / ton at the beginning of November. In November, zinc price in Shanghai futures market fell in shock, which was bad for domestic spot market, and the downward pressure on domestic spot market increased.
Domestic zinc production
It can be seen from the figure that compared with 2018, the domestic zinc production in 2019 has increased significantly, and the zinc production has maintained a double-digit growth rate for four months, and maintained a high growth rate for six consecutive months. Compared with 2017, the output of zinc ingot in 2019 still increased slightly. It can be seen that the sharp decline of zinc ingot production in 18 years caused by environmental inspection has been alleviated, the production of zinc ingot has returned to normal, and the production capacity of zinc ingot has recovered. The supply of zinc ingots increased, the supply of zinc exceeded the demand, and the price of zinc was negative.
| Melamine |
III. future prospects
Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business club, believes that: in the international market, LME zinc price fell in November, increasing negative pressure on the international zinc market, which was negative for the domestic zinc market; in the domestic zinc market, the zinc price in Shanghai futures market fell in shock, the futures market fell, which was negative for the spot market. With the continuous and substantial increase of zinc ingot output, the zinc market has changed from oversupply to oversupply, and the oversupply market is increasing; in terms of demand, the demand of zinc market is cold, and there is no obvious positive stimulus. Generally speaking, the supply of zinc market increases month by month, the demand does not pick up significantly, the oversupply of zinc market aggravates, the futures market falls, which collapses the cost support of the spot zinc market, and the spot price of zinc market fluctuates and falls. At the same time, due to the cost pressure of zinc ingot, there is limited space for zinc ingot to fall, and it is expected that zinc price will fluctuate and fall slightly in the future.
| EDTA 2Na |