While the OPEC countries are struggling to cope with the impact of shale oil production in the United States, production cuts are suddenly spoiled. Sodium selenite
On Wednesday, Libyan National Oil Company (NOC) said that with the largest oil field to solve technical problems, Libya crude oil production rose to 79.4 million barrels / day, an increase of about Liu Cheng, this week is expected to refresh the past three years, the highest single-day average daily oil record of 800,000 barrel.
Affected by the global crude oil prices diving again, as of June 1 at 17:00, the United States WTI crude oil futures contract price hovering around 48.88 US dollars / barrel, intraday hit a 25 May OPEC reached a new agreement since the lowest price $ 47.74 / barrel.
“If the dollar index fell below 97, so that oil prices get a breather, Libya production may make oil prices fell directly to 45 US dollars / barrel integer mark.” Crude oil research institutions Clearview Energy Partners Managing Director Jacques Rousseau told reporters in the 21st century economic report The
In his view, this is precisely the OPEC new production agreement a huge loophole – May 25 OPEC reached a new production agreement did not Libya, Iran, Nigeria into the cut category, leading to these countries have increased production, competition for OPEC cut Under the market blank, and further increase the market for excessive supply of crude oil concerns. Stannous sulphate
More importantly, the Libyan and other oil-producing countries to increase production behavior so that the global crude oil market game pattern has become more complex, the original market that OPEC countries did not increase the rate of production cuts, the main reason is to use low oil prices to squeeze the US shale oil Out of the market, regain crude oil market pricing. Now their spoiler, it is likely to appear snipe clam clash, fisherman profit situation, that is, OPEC and shale oil fight each other forced to leave each other, Libya and other countries took the opportunity to squeeze more market share, so that crude oil supply pattern Further aggravated by the OPEC set the global crude oil commercial inventories compressed to the average of the past five years below the target will become far away.
Recently, JP Morgan Chase also lowered the 2018 US oil price is expected to 11 US dollars to 42 US dollars / barrel.
“At the moment, only a weak dollar may be able to save the decline in crude oil, but the shadow of excess supply still makes financial institutions can not easily chase oil prices.” Jacques Rousseau analysis, June 1 WTI oil prices can bottom out slightly 1 %, An important driving force is the dollar index fell below the 97 mark, attracting many large global asset management institutions to buy crude oil hedge against the dollar fell risk. “However, it is still unknown how long the weak dollar can support oil prices in the face of a dollar’s rate hike in June,” he said.
Spoiler of the “lethality”
On May 25, OPEC and the non-OPEC oil-producing countries, led by Russia, agreed to extend the cut-off agreement for nine months and maintain a reduction of about 1.8 million barrels per day.
However, this did not restore the recent weakness in oil prices. WTI crude oil futures fell below $ 50 mark the day, to close at 48.90 US dollars / barrel, the lowest value of the week. Bacillus thuringiensis
In the eyes of the industry, the reason why oil prices ignore the profit and bear effect, mainly because OPEC did not Iran, Libya and Nigeria and other countries into the scope of production, the market worried that these countries may increase crude oil production, weakening OPEC new agreement effect.
Soon, this fear becomes a reality.
According to reports, in addition to the Libyan National Oil Company (NOC) announced on Wednesday production, the Iranian National Petroleum Corporation (NIOC) board of directors also approved a new production target – by March 2018, crude oil, natural gas and condensate production increased 8%, 17% and 29%, and strive to achieve a long-term average of 4.7 million barrels / day in mid-year.
In the case of Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at hedge fund Energy Aspects, Libya and other countries have not made any increase in production, which is not surprising – when OPEC countries cut production, these countries will never let go to increase production to expand market share. Good opportunity. Chitosan oligosaccharide
According to OPEC previously reached a cut agreement, OPEC largest oil producer Saudi Arabia committed a daily reduction of 48.6 million barrels, the highest daily output down to 1005.8 million barrels; OPEC second largest oil producer Iraq committed to cut 21 million barrels per day, To 435.1 million barrels per day; OPEC’s third-largest oil producer, Iran, was allowed to raise its production to 379.7 million barrels per day.
In practice, Iran, Iraq and other countries just to seize this clause continue to expand production. Some agencies estimate that Iran’s output in February this year has exceeded the quota agreed by the cut-off agreement, Iraq in March did not comply with the basic agreement.
This makes a lot of OPEC countries to implement the cut agreement dissatisfied, in order to defend their own market share, they turn to take more measures to increase the efficiency of OPEC production agreement greatly reduced. US energy industry consulting firm JBC Energy data show that in May OPEC production reductions in production, production has rebounded, specifically, 14 OPEC countries, the average daily production from 32.5 million barrels to 37 million barrels, the implementation rate of production agreement by the 96% in April fell to 92% in May.
JBC energy analyst Benigni told reporters in the 21st century economic report that the results of these countries “infighting” will be the transfer of global crude oil pricing from OPEC to the United States.
He bluntly, the current reason why the financial market bearish crude oil prices, an important reason is the US shale oil production, is changing the global crude oil market supply and demand map. According to Baker Hughes, the world’s third largest oilfield service provider, the number of US oil drilling rigs last week increased by two to 722 units, and the number once again set a new high since April 17, 2015. Sodium Molybdate
“This is also the positive effect of OPEC’s new production agreement has been repeatedly ignored by the market, while Libya, the United States and other production behavior has a sign of trouble, the market quickly short selling crude oil arbitrage root causes.” Benigni pointed out.
OPEC sniper US shale oil abacus “fall”
In the industry view, Libya, Iran’s increase in production, to some extent undermined the OPEC sniper American shale oil abacus.
Earlier, the market rumors that OPEC did not expand the implementation of the agreement, an important reason is OPEC attempts to use low oil prices strategy to force the US shale oil shrinking due to profits out of the market, to regain the global crude oil market share and pricing discourse.
Specifically, when US President Trump visited Saudi Arabia, rumors that Saudi Arabia and Wall Street hedge funds conspiracy to restore crude oil prices in the spot premium (that is, the recent contract price is higher than the forward contract price), on the one hand to protect the OPEC countries get relatively high Of the oil export earnings to stabilize the financial situation, to avoid some of the countries within the OPEC secretly reduce the effect of weakening production agreement; the other hand, by suppressing long-term crude oil contract prices to shrinking US shale oil profits, the United States shale oil companies related financing constraints , Step by step to compress American shale oil production.Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)
However, to achieve this goal, OPEC must be divided into four steps: First, continue to cut production, as much as possible so that OECD crude oil stocks return to the normal level below the five-year average, driven by the recent contract price rise; Second, OPEC continue to release the sound of future production, To reduce the long-term oil prices; third with hedge funds sniper crude oil short power, completely reverse the market bearish oil prices; Fourth, to ensure that the situation in the case of rising water, the gradual recovery of production to seize market share.
However, OPEC’s abacus is with Libya and other countries of the spoiler was destroyed. The only change, perhaps the right to speak of crude oil, transferred from the United States to Libya, Iran and other countries.
Many financial institutions even believe that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries take a step “dangerous game” – crude oil spot premium will drive more oil-producing countries to expand the current production capacity, leading to the global oil supply surplus situation further increased. Moreover, many oil-producing countries have long seen through OPEC’s abacus, quietly increase oil production capacity to gain greater market share and immediate benefits. Such as Iraq this year, crude oil production increased from 435 million barrels to 500 million barrels / day, Libya also plans to add 50 million barrels / day, the output will return to 120 million barrels / day high years.http://www.lubonchem.com/