1. Analysis of the Metal Silicon Market in 2025
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(1) Price Trend Description
According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, the market price of metallic silicon (#441) in 2025 generally exhibited a trend of initial decline followed by fluctuation at a mid-to-low level. On January 1, 2025, the market price of metallic silicon (#441) was referenced at 11,690 yuan/ton, while on December 31, 2025, it was referenced at 9,620 yuan/ton, resulting in an annual decline of 17.71%. The highest annual price was 11,690 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 8,620 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation range of 26.26%.
From January to June 2025, the domestic silicon metal market exhibited a trend of “continuous decline with minor fluctuations at the bottom.” The market center gradually moved toward lower levels. Taking 441# oxygenated silicon metal (silicon content ≥99%) as a representative, the market experienced a slow decline from January to March, with prices dropping below the 10,000-yuan mark. From April to June, the market accelerated its bottoming-out process, with prices continuing to fall. By the end of June, the price of silicon metal reached its lowest point of the year, at 8,620 yuan per ton, resulting in an overall decline of 26.26% for the first half of the year.
From July to December 2025, the domestic silicon metal market experienced a narrow recovery, but the rebound was limited. The market remained in a low-to-mid range fluctuation, with prices hovering between 9,300 and 9,700 yuan per ton, ending the year in a weak manner.
(2) Analysis of Market Influencing Factors
Supply-demand imbalance is the core factor influencing the trend of the silicon market
In the first quarter of 2025, although the silicon metal plants implemented phased production cuts, downstream restocking demand remained in a lull. Coupled with delayed production reductions at some Xinjiang facilities, March saw the gradual commissioning of new capacities and supply growth expectations, leading to persistent inventory accumulation and escalating supply pressure, which fueled market pessimism. From April to June, weak market demand recovery, coupled with the simultaneous collapse in prices of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon, further dampened transaction expectations. The increased operational rates at Xinjiang plants further intensified supply pressure, resulting in a pronounced supply-demand standoff and rapid price declines.
In July, production cuts in some regions supported the market’s recovery, but limited demand transmission led to insufficient momentum for sustained rebound. Prices declined to mid-to-low levels and fluctuated between August and September. From October to December, the metal silicon market remained weak on both supply and demand sides, with prices narrowly fluctuating and trending downward toward the end of the year.
II. Outlook on the Metal Silicon Market in 2026
(1) Supply side
1. production capacity
From 2021 to 2024, China’s metal silicon production capacity steadily increased. In 2025, the production capacity continued to expand, reaching approximately 7.846 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 8.94%. In 2026, the supply side of metal silicon is expected to experience a modest expansion, with the focus of capacity expansion shifting toward the northwest region. However, the newly added capacity will be limited, primarily consisting of previously uncommissioned projects, totaling around 700,000 tons. The increase in capacity remains relatively controllable, and the overcapacity situation is unlikely to be fundamentally reversed in the short term.
2. Output
In the first three quarters of 2025, the production of silicon metal was approximately 3.328 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%. In the fourth quarter, the market showed loose supply and demand, with poor expectations for production growth. Therefore, overall, the expected annual production of metallic silicon in 2025 is expected to decline. The decline in production is mainly affected by overcapacity, weak demand, and reduced production to alleviate pressure.
However, there is still a possibility of a slight increase in the national production of metallic silicon in 2026, and it is expected that the industrial silicon production will be in the range of 4-4.4 million tons by 2026. On the one hand, the increase in production in the northwest and the production scale in the southwest are limited due to cost and policy factors. If the industry implements policies to reduce production capacity and decrease output, the growth rate of production will be restricted. On the other hand, if enterprises are stimulated by prices and release new production capacity, there may be a possibility of output growth, but under the game of supply and demand, the willingness of enterprises to increase production may also tend to be rational.
（2） In terms of demand
In 2025, the overall demand performance of the silicon metal market is expected to be poor. In 2026, the three major downstream areas of silicon metal may be closely related to the aluminum alloy field, which can bring certain demand pull to the market. Let’s take a closer look at three aspects:
1. Polycrystalline silicon field
In 2026, the expected implementation of the “anti involution” policy is expected to result in a downward trend in polysilicon production capacity and output. The market may experience a contraction in supply. The reduction in production combined with the purchase of essential needs has suppressed the transmission of demand for raw material silicon metal. It is expected that the growth rate of demand for silicon metal from polycrystalline silicon will slow down or even decline in 2026.
2. Organic silicon field
Affected by the sluggish real estate industry, the demand for metallic silicon in the organic silicon market in 2026 may remain basically the same as in 2025. The demand for organic silicon terminal real estate is weak, and the recovery of non real estate demand continues to slow down. Although the industry has reduced production and raised prices in the early stage, the concentrated production of new capacity has resulted in weak production growth, making it difficult to have a significant increase in demand for metallic silicon and maintaining a relatively stable scale.
3. Aluminum alloy and other fields
In 2026, driven by the demand for non-ferrous metals, the demand for metallic silicon in areas such as aluminum alloys may increase year-on-year. The strong consumption of non-ferrous metals has led to a rebound in aluminum alloy production, but the decline in marginal demand for building materials has limited the growth rate. Therefore, although aluminum alloys and other fields have a certain positive impact on the demand for silicon metal, their overall contribution is limited.
3、 Summary
The core contradiction of the metal silicon market in 2025 is the “supply-demand imbalance”. The mismatch between loose supply and weak demand is suppressing the market, and the support for the metal silicon market is insufficient. The price shows a ladder like downward trend and then oscillates at a low level. The supply pattern of silicon metal market in 2026 still shows regional differentiation. In the short term, there is still pressure to release high inventory and new production capacity, and it will take time for downstream demand to recover. In the long run, it is necessary to focus on the demand support rhythm in strategic areas such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, and also pay attention to the impact of policy promotion, enterprise production reduction, and raw material price fluctuations on the mark
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