Price rebounded; aluminum price ended in horizontal trading in September

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market on September 29 was 14750 yuan / ton, up 0.27% compared with the average market price of 14710 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (September 1), 1.35% higher than the valley value of the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), 14553.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 31.27% compared with the valley value of the average market price in the year (March 24).

 

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In September, the price of aluminum ingots first fell and then rose. At the end of the month, it fell for two consecutive days, breaking through the earlier shock range (the fluctuation range was 14500-14800 yuan / T), and then the price rebounded. Generally speaking, the price still maintained the horizontal trend.

 

Overview of electrolytic aluminum fundamentals in September

 

1. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum moved down in September

 

According to statistical data, as of September 24, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) totaled 716000 tons, which was about 39000 tons lower than that on August 28.

 

2. Downstream operation in September: the demand for strip, foil and alloy ingot is small, and the demand for profile and cable is weak

 

Aluminum plate and strip: the operating rate of plate and strip enterprises is relatively high, about 80%. In September, the automobile brazing plate gradually warmed up, and the demand for building plate, strip and decorative material was stable, and the tank material was not as good as that in the early stage, so the overall demand was relatively good, especially for 5-series and 6-series medium and heavy plates. At present, the production period of large enterprises with floor belt is between 1-1.5 months.

 

Aluminum foil: in September, the demand for electronic foil, battery foil and double zero soft wrapping foil was better, followed by pharmaceutical foil and cigarette foil. At the end of the month, Thailand announced that it would launch a safeguard measure against China’s aluminum foil export, superimposing the anti-dumping threat from 27 EU countries and India, 30% of the aluminum foil export volume was affected by foreign policies, and the export end was not easy.

 

Primary aluminum alloy: from August to September, the primary alloy has new production capacity, and the current operating rate of the industry is 60-70%. Affected by the favorable opening rate of downstream aluminum wheel plants, the demand for A356.2 alloy, the main specification, was good, which greatly offset the negative feedback effect of new capacity.

 

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Aluminum cable: in September, the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid announced less orders for UHV, and the new orders were not as high as the same period last year, and the overall operating rate of the industry moved down month on month.

 

Aluminum profile: the demand for industrial profile increased slightly in peak season, but the demand for architectural profile was lower than expected, and the overall performance of profile plate in September was poor. Due to the EU’s provisional anti-dumping duty on Chinese aluminum profiles, the recovery trend of export is not optimistic.

 

3. The price of raw alumina moves down and the export of prebaked anode increases

 

In September, affected by the downward movement of overseas alumina prices, although the domestic upstream mines have strong willingness to support prices, the overall market price of domestic alumina still moved down slightly.

 

In the first eight months of 2020, the export situation of prebaked anode is good. According to the customs data, from January to August 2020, the total export volume of domestic prebaked anode reached 1072100 tons, an increase of 40.14% year-on-year. Among them, domestic pre baked anode exports totaled 153200 tons in August, with a month on month increase of 21.78% and a year-on-year increase of 131.7%.

 

In terms of new capacity, Gongyi Yinshan Metallurgical Materials Co., Ltd. has added an environmental protection and low consumption prebaked anode production line, which is expected to be put into production at the end of the month. Nanjiang carbon plant in laer City, Xinjiang has a capacity of 300000 tons of pre baked anode. The calciner was successfully ignited this month, and the trial production of baked anode is expected in October. Yunnan sotong Yunnan aluminum carbon material Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 900000 tons and a phase I construction of 600000 tons, is currently under construction. The 450 kt / a prebaked anode project of Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal Co., Ltd. is under construction, and the specific commissioning time is to be determined.

 

Future forecast

 

Aluminum prices have been running sideways for a long time, and the upward breakthrough is weak, mainly based on the fact that the average profit of domestic aluminum price is still acceptable, the enthusiasm of new production and re production capacity is high, coupled with the price difference between internal and external, the original aluminum import volume increases, resulting in greater domestic supply pressure. Fortunately, the social inventory data shows that although the export market is still significantly down year-on-year, domestic consumption is good. This week, aluminum prices fell for two consecutive days, and then recovered rapidly. Ye Jianjun, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the recent impact of external prices on basic metals is relatively large. In addition, although the consumption demand in September’s traditional consumption peak season has increased month on month, the market expectation of oversupply in the aftermarket has intensified, leading to the rise of the market’s expected demand for consumer demand, and the consumer demand is not as good as the market forecast It is expected that the aluminum ingot price will be weak and stable in October, and the price range will be 13500-15000 yuan / ton.

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