According to the Business Society Commodity Price Analysis System, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices experienced a significant decline in December, with continuous downward trends in the prices of dysprosium oxide, dysprosium-iron alloy, and metallic dysprosium. By the 26th, the price of dysprosium oxide stood at 1.345 million yuan per ton, down 9.43%; the price of dysprosium-iron alloy was 1.32 million yuan per ton, down 9.59%; and the price of metallic dysprosium was 1.91 million yuan per ton, down 7.95%.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
In December, the market prices of heavy rare earths experienced a significant decline. Due to weak end-demand, market activity gradually cooled down, and trading remained cautious. The metal market remained relatively stable, with some metal traders proactively lowering prices to attract buyers. In Jiangxi and Guangxi regions, the operating rates of separation enterprises remained low, and heavy rare earth production showed little change. Additionally, due to sluggish procurement by some magnetic material companies, the price trend of heavy rare earths dropped sharply.
1. Demand side: End-of-year rigid demand contraction + high-price resistance, leading to a slowdown in procurement pace
End-of-year cash flow pressure: Downstream magnet materials, wind power, and new energy vehicle manufacturers are entering year-end settlements, leading to tight cash flows for small and medium-sized enterprises. These companies are reducing raw material inventories, only maintaining sporadic essential purchases, and deferring bulk orders until the first quarter of 2026.
High prices dampen procurement willingness: Oxide prices of terbium and dysprosium remained at elevated levels (terbium oxide once approached 7 million yuan per ton), with downstream sectors clearly resisting high-cost raw materials. A “buying high but not low” sentiment spread, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere that intensified price declines through reduced transactions.
Seasonal weakening in demand: The peak season for wind power installations is nearing its end, and the production and sales growth of new energy vehicles have experienced a temporary slowdown, leading to reduced incremental demand for heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium, with weak support from the demand side.
The export lead effect fades: Overseas orders drove exports up 24.4% year-on-year in November, but declined seasonally in December, weakening the price support from export demand.
II. Supply Side: Short-term Supply Elasticity Release and Seasonal Inventory Relief
Burma’s Concentrated Shipment Before Mining Ban: Prior to the full-scale mining ban policy taking effect at the end of the year, Myanmar’s ion-type mineral shipments (key raw material for heavy rare earths) were concentrated during the early part of December, improving raw material supply for domestic separation plants and leading to a temporary increase in spot supply.
Domestic Quotas and Maintenance Shipments: The total production target for 2025 is 145,000 tons (up 5% year-on-year). Towards the end of the year, some separation plants accelerated shipments to meet annual targets, combined with inventory clearance before maintenance at certain facilities, leading to a short-term increase in spot market liquidity.
Supplementary Supply from Scrap Recycling: When the prices of heavy rare earths are at high levels, the volume of scrap recycling increases, alleviating short-term supply shortages to some extent and suppressing spot prices.
Market Outlook: In the long term, the rigid constraints on the supply side of heavy rare earths (such as Myanmar’s mining ban and strict domestic quotas) remain unchanged, while the long-term growth drivers on the demand side (humanoid robots, wind power, and new energy vehicles) are solid. It is expected that by the first quarter of 2026, as demand recovers and inventory is depleted, prices may gradually stabilize and rebound.
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