At the beginning of the week, the domestic polysilicon market remained stable, and today’s polysilicon material price changed little compared with the previous weekend. Some individual quotations are still on the high side, but there are few high-level transactions. At present, domestic polysilicon manufacturers have signed orders in September. Trading volume declined slightly. At present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers has little change, and the shortage of goods is alleviated compared with that in the early stage. Up to now, most domestic silicon manufacturers mainly operate normally. With the manufacturer’s resumption of early maintenance, the market supply pressure is relieved. The shipment speed of downstream silicon wafers decreased. The price of silicon wafers changed little last week, and the cost decline alleviated the downstream cost pressure to a certain extent, but the downstream profit is still meager, and the component procurement tends to slow down. According to the monitoring of business society, the mainstream transaction price of polycrystalline silicon with the model of primary solar material in China is 95000-120000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream range of monocrystalline silicon material is about 200000 yuan / ton.

Note: the above prices are tax inclusive

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market rose in the first week of August. As of August 6, the average price of 50 particle samples of domestic potassium sulfate was 4500 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.50% over the average price level at the beginning of the month and 68.22% over the same period last year.

The domestic potassium sulfate price has shown a stalemate recently. The market has experienced a long-term rise since the end of May. At present, the potash fertilizer market is gradually moving towards a weak overall situation. As the domestic spot price maintained a high increase last month, the current potassium sulfate price is in a high and firm state. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of processing potassium sulfate unit is still not high, and there is a small increase in the supply of goods on site. In addition, due to the lower output of potassium chloride fertilizer, the spot price of potassium chloride increased by more than 14% in July, and the cost side pressure of potassium sulfate increased. The ex factory price remains high, and some offers are higher than the market price. Recently, the market momentum began to decrease, the actual single transaction was limited, and the market increase narrowed. At present, the ex factory reference price of 52% potassium sulfate powder of Shijiazhuang hehe Chemical Co., Ltd. is reported as 4600 yuan / ton. The ex factory reference price of 50% potassium sulfate powder of Chongqing Anton chemical fertilizer is quoted as 4400 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the potassium sulfate analyst of business society, the domestic potassium fertilizer market price remained rising in early August, and the price of raw potassium chloride was high. Although the cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is strong, the momentum of fertilizer market begins to cool down. Under the pressure of high cost, the load of potassium sulfate enterprises remains below 60%. In addition, the follow-up efforts of terminal enterprises are gradually reduced, and the resistance to high price offer and shipment of manufacturers rises suddenly. It is expected that the price of domestic potassium sulfate may change from rise to fall in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of July 31, the ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 16600 yuan / ton. Compared with July 1 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 16066 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 434 yuan / ton, or 3.32%.

In early July, due to the overhaul of domestic propylene glycol plants, the supply of propylene glycol in the market decreased, the fear of rising in the downstream increased, the downstream took goods actively, and the propylene glycol market showed an upward trend. As of July 15, the average ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol rose to 17566 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.34% in the first half of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

In late July, propylene glycol units were put into operation one after another, the on-site supply increased, the downstream demand was generally affected by the season, and the effective support of propylene glycol market was insufficient. At the end of the month, the propylene glycol market price plunged sharply. On July 27, the low-end price of propylene glycol market fell back to 16200 yuan / ton. Later, the market was weak until the end of July. According to the monitoring data of business society, as of July 31, The average ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol refers to 16600 yuan / ton. Compared with the price in early July, the average price increases by 534 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 3.32%.

In terms of related products dimethyl carbonate, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market rose sharply in July. In the middle and early July, factories in Shaanxi and Shandong were shut down for maintenance. The supply of dimethyl carbonate in the yard decreased, and the supply tension increased rapidly. The market price of dimethyl carbonate rose sharply. The single day increase of dimethyl carbonate exceeded 1000 yuan / ton. By the 15th, dimethyl carbonate rose to 7800 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.59% in the first half of July compared with the beginning of July.

In late July, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market continued to rise steadily. On the 27th, the market price of dimethyl carbonate rose to the peak of the current month. The mainstream quotation of dimethyl carbonate in Shandong was 8300-8800 yuan / ton, and the average price was 8433 yuan / ton. Under the high price, the factory shipment rhythm slowed down, and the dimethyl carbonate market fell slightly at the end of the month, but it was still high as of July 31, According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate is 8233 yuan / ton, which is 1367 yuan / ton higher than that in early July, with a monthly increase of nearly 20%.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the propylene oxide market was strong and upward in mid and early July, with an increase of 23.99%. Since late July, propylene oxide market has weakened. Recently, the representative factories accumulated slowly, the market supply tended to be loose, coupled with the obvious price depression in the middle and lower reaches, and the focus of market negotiation gradually decreased. On the 27th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 16300-16500 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, as of July 31, the reference price of propylene oxide was 16300 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.4% compared with July 1 (14900 yuan / ton).

Future forecast and analysis of propylene glycol

At present, the supply of propylene glycol has basically returned to normal, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid demand. In terms of cost, the high level of raw material propylene oxide gives propylene glycol cost support. Therefore, the propylene glycol analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will be dominated by stable small and medium range.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 4, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 13400.00 yuan / ton. Recently, the market price of DMF has risen, up 2.88% compared with the same period last week and 22.94% compared with the beginning of the same period last month. At present, the overall trend of DMF is strong.

Recently, DMF has been operating at a high level, the price has a continuous rising trend, the supply of spot goods is tight, the transaction atmosphere is positive, the downstream just needs to purchase, the contract customers are actively delivering, and the number of new orders has also increased. At present, Anyang unit is operating at low load, some small units are overhauled, and the units of other manufacturers are operating normally. At present, the mainstream price range is 13500-14000 yuan / ton.

The upstream methanol mainly operates stably, the manufacturer’s quotation is stable, the replenishment is just needed, the fluctuation is limited, and the early trend will be maintained in the short term, mainly contract customers.

On August 4, the chemical index was 1120 points, which was the same as yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 87.29% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020（ Note: period refers to from December 1, 2011 to now)

DMF analysts of business agency believe that: it is expected that DMF will run at a high level in the short term and the price will rise（ For more information on the latest industry chain, welcome to pay attention to official account of business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp commodity price.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and adjusted in a narrow range in July, and the spot prices of various brands did not rise or fall much. As of July 31, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 17800 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.56% over the average price at the beginning of the month and 37.60% over the same period last year.

Factor analysis:

In terms of raw material styrene, the domestic spot price fluctuated in July, falling more or rising less. At the beginning of June, the price was in the stage high range. Due to the correction of international crude oil, the price of pure benzene fell sharply, and the cost of styrene fell. In the second half of July, the cost side of crude oil chemical chain was mainly consolidated and operated, and the cost side of styrene was generally supported. In addition, several styrene units resumed production after short repair in the month, and there was an expectation of new production capacity in the industry. Under the expectation of increased supply, the market gradually weakened. Although there was some demand improvement in the market at the end of the month, the follow-up of the main terminals was slow and the demand was difficult to increase. Spot procurement tends to be cautious, and the desire to catch up is not strong. Styrene is expected to continue to weaken in the near future.

Upstream butadiene: in July, the overall growth of domestic butadiene market was large, the growth was concentrated in the middle of the previous month, and there was a slight correction at the end of the month. In July, affected by the rise in the external market, the strong prices of domestic suppliers boosted the prices of merchants. In addition, the downstream increased the load, supporting the sharp rise of middlemen’s offer, and it is difficult to find low-cost goods in the market. There was rising resistance in the yard in the latter ten days. Affected by the typhoon, the shipment of some domestic export sources was delayed, and there were many short-term shutdown of downstream devices, and the short-term market expectation was empty. With the weakening of downstream inquiry intention, the focus of spot price continues to decline. In addition, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s phase II unit was put into operation, and Gulei Petrochemical also had a start-up plan in mid August. The medium-term performance of the supply side was short, further aggravating the downward pressure on the market. Business analysts predict that butadiene market may enter the downward channel.

In July, the domestic ABS market was generally stable, and the monthly amplitude of spot price was only 1.7%. The upstream market fluctuated, and it weakened at the end of the month. The ABS cost side market was general. In the first half of the month, the capacity loss caused by the overhaul plans of Shandong Jianghai, Jihua and Tongliao chemical industry and the overhaul plan of Tongliao chemical industry tightened the market supply, pushing up the prices of some brands. At the end of the month, the manufacturers gradually returned to work. Judging from the recent accumulation of finished product inventory, the overall supply of goods is in an incremental state. In addition, the market momentum is not strong, the profitability of the industry is general, the market momentum decreases, the demand shrinks, and the spot price decreases.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the ABS spot market adjusted and operated in a narrow range in July, the trend of raw materials is OK, and the support for ABS cost is still. The supply support gradually weakened in the latter ten days due to the resumption of many units. At present, the demand for goods in the lower reaches of the industry is general. Under the stalemate, the market loses its orientation, the mentality of the industry has changed to cautious wait-and-see, and the on-site inquiry and actual trading have decreased compared with the previous. It is expected that the recent ABS spot market may adjust downward.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the acetic acid market was sorted upward. On August 2, the price of acetic acid was 6066.67 yuan / ton, up 1.39% from the previous working day. As of August 2, the market price of acetic acid in various regions in China rose and fell as follows:

region July 30th August 2nd Price rise and fall

East China 5950-6550 yuan / ton 5950-6600 yuan / ton fifty

South China 5950-6050 yuan / ton 6000-6100 yuan / ton fifty

North China 5650-5900 yuan / ton 5650-5900 yuan / ton 0

Shandong region 5950-6000 yuan / ton 5950-6000 yuan / ton 0

Jiangsu region 5800-5900 yuan / ton 6100-6200 yuan / ton three hundred

Zhejiang region 5900-6000 yuan / ton 6200-6300 yuan / ton three hundred

Hebei region 6000 yuan / ton 6000 yuan / ton 0

The domestic acetic acid market rose slightly. Last week, Huayi acetic acid plant in Guangxi and Anhui failed to stop, and the mentality in the yard was positive. Individual acetic acid enterprises increased their quotation, which promoted the market atmosphere. Among them, Shaanxi Yanchang, Yankuang, Cathay Pacific and other acetic acid enterprises made up the rise on Saturday. In the downstream, traders just needed to buy rationally, coupled with the support of acetic acid export, the shipment of acetic acid enterprises was stable, With the restart of the enterprise device, the market supply increases, and the acetic acid market is sorted and operated in the later stage. We will wait and see the trading situation of the downstream market.

In July, Shandong civil gas market continued the rising trend in June, the price continued to rise, and the off-season market was not weak. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 4326.67 yuan / ton on July 1 and 4550.00 yuan / ton on July 31. The increase rate in July was 5.16%, an increase of 9.82% compared with June 1.

As of July 30, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

Specifications type of shipping region Mainstream quotation

Civil gas Automobile transportation North China 4500-4600 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation East China 4300-4500 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation South China 4470-4550 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation Shandong region 4500-4550 yuan / ton

In July, affected by seasonal factors, due to the high weather temperature and weak terminal demand, the civil LPG market was in the traditional off-season. However, the off-season market was staged in July this year, and the civil gas market in Shandong was strong and upward. There were many positive factors in the liquefied gas market in July. At the end of June, with the introduction of CP price in July, propylene and butane increased significantly, and the inlet gas price increased. Moreover, the international crude oil price is at a high level. In addition, in terms of supply, the market supply of some manufacturers in Shandong market is reduced due to unit maintenance. Under multiple favorable factors, the liquefied gas market is supported to rise. However, there are still negative factors in the market. The weak terminal demand in the off-season has brought some constraints to the upstream route. The enthusiasm for entering the market in the upper half of the downstream is general, and the second half of the month is more positive, but the overall demand has not improved significantly.

In July, the LPG futures market fluctuated and rose, which brought certain benefits to the spot market. On July 30, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2109 was 5020, the highest price was 5148, the lowest price was 4966, the closing price was 5145, the former settlement price was 4944, the settlement price was 5050, up 201, or 4.07%, the trading volume was 112871, the position was 62395, and the daily position was increased by – 587（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

In the international crude oil market, on July 29, the international oil price rose significantly. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $73.62/barrel, up US $1.23 or 1.70%, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was US $75.10/barrel, up US $1.23 or 1.67%. Previously, the decline of U.S. crude oil inventory was higher than expected, and the tight supply boosted the oil price. Some data showed that the U.S. crude oil supply hit the lowest level since January 2020, and the oil price further increased.

The introduction of CP price in August, the continuous increase of propylene butane, the high level of international crude oil and the upward trend of futures market have brought certain benefits to the liquefied gas market. However, at present, the civil price of liquefied gas has risen to a relatively high level, the downstream has limited ability to accept high prices, and the off-season is not over, and the terminal demand is still weak. The market supply has increased in August, which has brought some constraints to the market. It is expected that the market price of civil gas in Shandong will be high first and then low in August. Specifically, we still need to pay attention to the trend of international crude oil.

Aluminum prices fluctuated upward in July

On July 29, the average market price of aluminum ingots was 19510 yuan / ton. In July, the price of aluminum ingots generally fluctuated upward, with an operation range of 18700-19500 yuan / ton.

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 19510 yuan / ton on July 29, up 3.61% from 18830 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Taking the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, it has increased by 24.06%.

Summary of aluminum market

Cost side: in mid July, electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia faced pressure on production again. With the launch of carbon trading, the cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises further increased. Alumina prices rose during the month.

Supply and demand side: the social inventory data of aluminum ingots support the aluminum price, and the local tension of industrial power consumption in summer superimposes the process of putting into operation and resuming production.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the current price around 18500-19500 yuan / ton is a steady-state shock range formed by the market game. It is expected that the price of aluminum ingot will basically run around 19000 yuan / ton in the near future

On July 27, the average price of spandex was 79800 yuan / ton, up 12200 yuan / ton or 18.05% compared with that on April 27. The overall price of spandex showed an upward trend, up 156.59% year-on-year. The domestic market price of spandex is running strongly. According to the data collected by wind from China chemical fiber economic information network, the average price of spandex 40d in the first half of this year was 58787 yuan / ton, up 101% year-on-year from 29199 yuan / ton in the same period in 2020. At the end of June, the price was raised to 71500 yuan / ton, a record high since August 2010.

On July 26, the spandex commodity index was 181.36, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 179.02% from the lowest point of 65.00 on July 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-07-01 to now)

From the upstream, from January to May this year, spandex continued to rise, mainly due to the rise of its raw material PTMEG (polytetrahydrofuran) and the pull of demand. PTMEG is the main raw material of spandex, accounting for 80% of spandex raw materials. Affected by the control of overseas epidemic and the recovery of demand, oil prices rose in the first half of this year, and the raw materials for PTMEG production were refined from oil. Since this year, PTMEG has increased by 124%. Since May, the demand has become stronger and stronger, especially sportswear, yoga clothes, swimsuit, etc. Benefiting from the scale effect of large refining and chemical industry, the rise of spandex price and the great increase of demand, many chemical fiber listed companies have “reported good results” in the first half of this year.

Business analysts believe that the bottom of spandex’s recent cost correction has more support in the future. When the downstream demand is expected to be good, spandex is expected to maintain a high business cycle, the demand side promotes the superposition supply to increase slightly, and the spandex market may continue to operate at a high level. Since April 18, 2021, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average to start the upward trend. At present, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. It is estimated on July 25, 2021 that the probability of operation situation change (i.e. the 7-day moving average crosses the 30-day moving average) in the next 7 days is only 1.90%.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market has fluctuated recently, and the spot prices of various brands have fallen as a whole. As of July 26, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8516.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.97% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and an increase of 5.58% year-on-year.

Cause analysis

The domestic (Shandong) market of propylene upstream of PP turned around last week and continued to rise. At the beginning of the week, the market was 7673 yuan / ton, and the weekend average price was 7809 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.66%. After the collapse of crude oil prices, the rebound accelerated last week, followed by propylene. The downstream is purchased on demand. In general, the downstream performance of propylene is acceptable. Although propylene prices have rebounded recently, on the whole, bad crude oil is dominant. It is suggested to pay close attention to the changes in oil prices. The short-term market shock and downward trend are still the main tone.

The upstream propylene market has warmed up and the cost side support of PP has been strengthened. It is reported that the current average operating rate of the industry has further decreased. In addition, last week, China Coal Mengda, Shanghai Secco and other enterprises issued maintenance plans. While the on-site supply has decreased, the market supply is expected to decrease. In terms of terminal enterprises, the average load continues to decline, and the demand is difficult to increase. However, the news showed that the total domestic PP inventory decreased by more than 7% last week. It can be seen that the shipment pressure of merchants is not as large as expected, but the downstream enterprises just need to follow up in the purchase operation, and there is a certain upward resistance on the disk.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of July 26, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 8550 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.91% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and an increase of 9.85% year-on-year. Recently, the proportion of domestic fiber PP output decreased, falling to about 5% last weekend. At present, the demand for fiber PP is general, the load of production lines of spunbonded non-woven fabrics and Spunlaced non-woven fabrics in main downstream factories is relatively stable, and the consumption level is general. The market is weak, the mentality of the operators is not strong, and the actual orders are more profitable.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has continued to be weak and stable recently, and the spot price level has stabilized in the range of less than 10000 yuan. As of July 26, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 9600 yuan / ton. It is reported that PP melts are frequently produced in the domestic market. As a result, there are few devices still in production in China. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable, and the demand for medical protective articles is saturated. The overseas epidemic level is stable, the demand for oxygen generator and other equipment related products in the external epidemic prevention market increases, and the pulling effect on the melt blown PP industry is not obvious. It is difficult to meet the demand for melt blown materials, and it is expected that the price market may continue to be weak.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that the domestic polypropylene market generally remained weak and volatile last week, showing a weak consolidation trend. The load of downstream enterprises is low, and the demand is generally followed up. There is a great pressure on the delivery of high price goods in the venue, and the merchants prefer to make profit. The upstream propylene market has warmed up and the cost side support of PP has been strengthened. The confidence in the venue is insufficient, and most operators are bearish. It is expected that the PP price may continue the weak consolidation pattern in the short term.